Slovak Elections and Politics | Fico the Fourth 🇸🇰

[MRCVzla]

Focus/Markiza TV with a blank exit poll
snip

6-to-7-party parliament, depends if the one with 8% will be Matovič' OĽaNO or far-right Republika, one other party of the ones around the 5% threshold seems to fell off hard in the last 48 hours (most likely KDH or SNS).

Very probably tight race between Smer and PS. Hlas seems the one with 12%, as the polls already projected before the moratorium.

[RGM2609]

Given that all 7 parties are awarded seats, it would seem like Matovic passed the 7% coalition threshold ugh

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

So going to guess the correct order is PS, Smer, Hlas, Olano, Rep, SaS and KDH above the threshold, and SR and SNS just below.

PS-Hlas-Olano-KDH, perhaps?

You have drink from me, if you're right.

[Germany1994]

Do we have exit polls with party names now??

[Estrella]

Sme rodina, Dems and Alliance out.

[Oryxslayer]

So going to guess the correct order is PS, Smer, Hlas, Olano, Rep, SaS and KDH above the threshold, and SR and SNS just below.

PS-Hlas-Olano-KDH, perhaps?

You have drink from me, if you're right.

So close! Just got the order of the 6%'s wrong.

[Keep Calm and ...]

Focus party names

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1708223292761338022

[resad]

Assuming the poll is correct would SMER+Hlas+KDH+REP be enough?

[Keep Calm and ...]

Focus seat projection

https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1708224188555661575

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

LETS F@CKING GO!!!!!!!!!!

[DavidB.]

So basically Hlas, Olano and KDH are kingmakers. PS-Hlas-Olano-KDH and PS-Hlas-SaS-KDH have a 'pro-EU' majority (the former even without KDH, but that seems tricky with so few seats). But Smer-Hlas-Rep in combination with Olano/KDH also have a majority. Smer-Hlas-Olano-KDH would be another possibility without PS.

[RGM2609]

I know that OLANO is not quite the corruption-fighting party it claims to be, but even so, I have trouble seeing them joining Fico in government. Not to mention it would be political suicide for both.

[Estrella]

12% counted, all from very rural areas. Smer 26, Hlas 18, PS 10, OĽANO 9, KDH 7, SNS 6, Szövetség 6, Republika 6, SaS 4, Sme rodina 3, Demokrati 2, ĽSNS 1. Turnout is pretty high and might end up above 70%.

[DavidB.]

What do you think are the likeliest coalition options now, Estrella?

[Mike88]

Let's hope the vote from Bratislava is very, very strong for PS.

[RGM2609]

As far as I can tell, aren't just a tad over 100,000 votes in? Given that there were 3 million votes in 2020...

[Estrella]

What do you think are the likeliest coalition options now, Estrella?

I'm pretty sure I hope nobody is suicidal enough to let Matovič into any coalition. Other than that, it's going to depend on Hlas. Their voters mostly prefer Smer but many aren't enthusiastic about that option and relations between the leaderships of Hlas and Smer are allegedly genuinely bad: a lot of Smer cadres (including MPs, mayors etc) left for Hlas and are resented in the mother party, while Pellegrini would hate playing second fiddle to Fico after he took away his chance to return as PM.

[Estrella]

As far as I can tell, aren't just a tad over 100,000 votes in? Given that there were 3 million votes in 2020...

I think the % counted is actually the % of polling stations reporting, not votes. It also doesn't include the 60 thousand-ish postal votes from abroad that will likely overwhelmingly favor PS.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

those exit polls give hope. Of course, not a fan that the party led by a guy who gave a gay broadcaster a shirt saying "plague" on it is kingmaker, but considering the other options, I'd take it if I were in Slovakia...

[Estrella]

those exit polls give hope. Of course, not a fan that the party led by a guy who gave a gay broadcaster a shirt saying "plague" on it is kingmaker, but considering the other options, I'd take it if I were in Slovakia...

It was the other way round, but it was in response to the guy saying that "LGBT is a plague as bad as corruption", so...

[RGM2609]

Do we have any crosstabs so far?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

those exit polls give hope. Of course, not a fan that the party led by a guy who gave a gay broadcaster a shirt saying "plague" on it is kingmaker, but considering the other options, I'd take it if I were in Slovakia...

It was the other way round, but it was in response to the guy saying that "LGBT is a plague as bad as corruption", so...

I must have read the thing wrong back when you posted it. Still, he's a homophobic dickhead

[Keep Calm and ...]

https://twitter.com/SlovakiaElects/status/1708250974781853839

[jaichind]

https://dennikn.sk/volby/vysledky/

has a projection based on the 15% of the vote in which is Smer 21.6 PS 16.0 Hlas 15.2 with both Smer and Hlas exceeding exit polls

[Estrella]

That would mean the last polls were basically right and the exit poll underestimated Smer (and Smer 2 ie Hlas) and overestimated PS, which is more or less what happened in 2020.