2022 Senate midterms with a Democratic president (2021-23)

[Suburbia]

If a Democrat wins the White House in 2020, defeating President Donald Trump (first president to lose reelection since George Bush 1992), wins CO, AZ, keeps AL, wins NC or GA in the 2020 Senate elections and keeps Democratic House majority for a Democratic trifecta for first time since 2009-11 and 1993-95, will the 2022 Senate map look bad for Democrats or will demographic changes favor the Democrats and make 2022 look like 1998 or 2002?

I think Democrats can keep AZ (Mark Kelly), pick up WI, NC (Burr's seat), GA (Isakson seat)

D+3, despite president's party in power (demographic changes)

What do you think?

[Xing]

I highly doubt that they pick up GA, NC, and WI with a Democratic president (all three of those are very plausible pick-ups in a second Trump midterm, especially WI), and in the event that they did, Toomey would almost certainly lose in PA as well.

[ctherainbow]

Wisconsin flips but not PA?  

I could see Wisconsin and Pennsylvania both flipping if Trump loses traction in the Rust Belt, and Georgia could continue to trend Dem and flip, but I don't really see a high possibility of Ron Johnson's seat going down while Toomey holds on.  Pennsylvania has been looking more hostile to Republicans since 2016 than Wisconsin has, and I don't see Toomey making up that difference with his incumbency/campaigning skills. 

[Tekken_Guy]

Dems lose Arizona and New Hampshire, while picking up Pennsylvania.

Ducey can easily win the GOP the Arizona seat back. Same with Sununu and NH.

Pennsylvania is their best (if not only) pick-up opportunity in 2022. Especially if Tom Wolf runs, he’s well-positioned to defy standard midterm trends just like Rick Scott did last year.  In Nevada, maybe Brian Sandoval can win, but probably not anyone else.

Iowa will stay GOP as long as they don’t nominate Steve King. Wisconsin should be fine for the GOP if they don’t have a candidate like Paul Ryan or Scott Walker as the nominee.

Ohio will keep Portman. Florida will be fine if Rubio is the nominee. Georgia will likely stay GOP. NC can go either way, though Republicans are probably favored.

[Mr. Smith]

That depends highly on how 2020 unfolds.

If AZ, GA, NC decide the election against Trump, I suspect they'll be like WI/MI/PA...they'll be decent GOP wins, but they'll still be leftward of the nation the same way Casey/Stabenow/Baldwin were rightwards. This would likely mean Rubio and Tumor get axed, and Johnson's open spot flips.

But if it's literally by the skin of 80,000 Hillary missed (or the unspoken 210,000 from FL/AZ), it's a bloodbath.

[TML]

I think the type of Democrat who is election and how he or she governs may be a contributing factor to the 2022 elections. If the President is an establishment-type figure who mostly stays on the sidelines during the election season, Democrats will likely lose ground in Congress. If the President is a populist figure who aggressively campaigns for candidates like Trump did in 2018, Democrats could stand a good chance of gaining ground in Congress (I think Trump's campaigning in 2018 helped Republicans gain ground in the Senate and limit their losses in the House to a number lower than what they gained in 2010).

[😥]

Democrats will pick up PA, WI (with Kind), NC (with Cooper), while will lose NH (with Sununu)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ducey and Reynolds arent winning another term and Grassley will retire if Dems reclaim Senate in 2020. Shelby will retire.

New senator AL
Sen-elect Scholten-IA
Sen-elect Sestak-PA
Sen-elect Jackson-NC
Sen-elect Ron Kind-WI

Dems +3 in this scenario

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats flip PA (with Wolf) and one other state (GA? NC?) but lose NH (with Sununu), so D+1, which could very well be enough to retake the Senate lol. D+0/no change if Ducey runs in AZ and beats Kelly.

[Zaybay]

Just a disclaimer to start off, Im going to go under the assumption that this midterm would be similar to the 2014 midterm and have a national popular vote of around R+5.

Looking at the seats up for election in 2022, the GOP and Dems are left with an interesting situation. Both parties have very few competitive seats up(the Dems due to losing out on tossup seats back in 2016, the Rs due to the NPVI) and so the election would be concentrated in only a handful of seats.

Starting off with the possible GOP takeovers:

AZ- If Mark Kelly is able to win in 2020, he'll be left in a rather dangerous situation come 2022. The state, already leaning Republican, will make him the prime target for the GOP. To make matters even worse, Ducey will likely be a candidate in this race. The good news for Kelly is that he is already rather popular, and besides Ducey the GOP have a rather weak bench. But if anyone's going down, its going to be Kelly.

NH- The constant tossup state in the North East could prove beneficial towards the GOP come 2022. The math checks out for the Republicans, especially with Sununu being a possible candidate. The problem for the GOP is that NH seems to be the FL for the GOP, always being oddly out of reach. But perhaps 2022 could finally break Democratic strength in the Granite State.

NV- We're already starting to reach into some iffy territory for the GOP. NV has always been a rather competitive state, and its possible a strong offensive could work rather well for the Republicans. But besides that, there are notable problems including the growing Latino population, the growing urbanization of the state, the lack of a GOP bench, etc. But NV has a good chance of falling, especially when compared to the next state.

CO- Yep, we have already reached the.....reach seats. CO is a state where the GOP need a miracle to win, but technically it is possible.....technically.

Now onto the Dems, but interestingly their possible targets rely a lot on how the PresiDem won in 2020:

GA- The GOP's ticking time bomb. If the PresiDem wins 2020 without GA, then the seat becomes much safer, but if the Democrats carry it, and possibly along with its senate seat, then the GOP are in trouble. An inelastic state with a rather constant D trend, its a state thats when it finally flips, its gone. The GOP also has to deal with the fact that the seat will likely be open, as Iskason has had multiple health scares recently. If any seat flips over, GA is on the top of the list.

PA- Toomey's fate will heavily depend on how the PresiDem does in 2020. If the presidem barely wins the state, then Toomey is likely fine. Otherwise hes fair game. The state has multiple strong Democratic candidates that can face him, such as Fetterman, Lamb, and Shapiro, and the state has a lean towards Democrats downballot. Toomey, however, has been able to evade the Democrats multiple times, and with a GOP victory nationally, he could stick around for another 6 years.

WI- With Johnson's possible retirement, an open seat in the swing state of WI could come up rosy for the Democrats. The GOP are much stronger here than in PA, but the Dems still have a lot going for them, including a rather consistent turnout rate(even in R wave years). The Rs have a good slate to replace Johnson, but a D upset can still happen.

NC- NC is where we start to enter some possible reach territory. Richard Burr is likely to retire( a reoccurring theme with the 2022 GOP) but the state's R lean combined with a rather lackluster D field could prove detrimental for D efforts. However, there is a possibility that 2020 will move the state towards the Left, and if that were to occur the state could be in trouble.

FL- Florida is just a state that could be competitive but always goes GOP. It makes the list as the last possible opportunity, but only really because FL will FL.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wolf says he isnt interested for running for public office again.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The Democrats haven't even won 2020 yet and people are already predicting midterm gains. Ironically they did the same thing in early 2009 about 2010. For months people predicted that the Democrats would expand their already large majority in 2010 because Republicans had so many swing states up and open, including Florida, PA (weird situation), OH, MO (was a swing state back then) and NH. Republicans held/gained (bc PA situation) all of them and then won six more seats beyond that.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Wisconsin flips but not PA?  

I could see Wisconsin and Pennsylvania both flipping if Trump loses traction in the Rust Belt, and Georgia could continue to trend Dem and flip, but I don't really see a high possibility of Ron Johnson's seat going down while Toomey holds on.  Pennsylvania has been looking more hostile to Republicans since 2016 than Wisconsin has, and I don't see Toomey making up that difference with his incumbency/campaigning skills. 

Republicans came out of 2018 in PA far better than they came out of 2006. Both Rendell and Casey won by more than Wolf and Casey did in 2018, Republicans ended up down 11-8 with a GOP gerrymander, and they tied the delegation this time with a fair map. Republicans also held the State House of Representatives, which they lost in 2006 and both times were with Republican drawn maps.

There was also the understanding that Pat Toomey was more conservative than Santorum so there is no way he can possibly win, which since he is now a two term Senator I think the results speak for themselves.

PA is and will remain a closely divided state and we will have to see what happens in 2020 but after McCain lost it by 10%, Dems picked up the Erie based seat (then PA-03) and secured their majority in the House, few people gave Republicans a chance. The 2010 elections are a cautionary tale of predicting long term dominance in a closely divided swing state.

[ctherainbow]

Wisconsin flips but not PA?  

I could see Wisconsin and Pennsylvania both flipping if Trump loses traction in the Rust Belt, and Georgia could continue to trend Dem and flip, but I don't really see a high possibility of Ron Johnson's seat going down while Toomey holds on.  Pennsylvania has been looking more hostile to Republicans since 2016 than Wisconsin has, and I don't see Toomey making up that difference with his incumbency/campaigning skills. 

Republicans came out of 2018 in PA far better than they came out of 2006. Both Rendell and Casey won by more than Wolf and Casey did in 2018, Republicans ended up down 11-8 with a GOP gerrymander, and they tied the delegation this time with a fair map. Republicans also held the State House of Representatives, which they lost in 2006 and both times were with Republican drawn maps.

There was also the understanding that Pat Toomey was more conservative than Santorum so there is no way he can possibly win, which since he is now a two term Senator I think the results speak for themselves.

PA is and will remain a closely divided state and we will have to see what happens in 2020 but after McCain lost it by 10%, Dems picked up the Erie based seat (then PA-03) and secured their majority in the House, few people gave Republicans a chance. The 2010 elections are a cautionary tale of predicting long term dominance in a closely divided swing state.

I’m not predicting long-term Democratic dominance in PA, though?  I simply stated that Pennsylvania in recent elections has been more hostile to Pubs than Wisconsin, hence I didn’t see Ron Johnson’s seat flipping in the same theoretical election that Toomey’s seat doesn't.  Did you not understand my original post, or maybe accidentally quoted the wrong person?   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are gonna win WI and Pa, Fetterman will run for Gov, in a Joe Biden midterm. McGinty was too liberal for the state, in 2016, Dems will find a Fetterman candidacy for Senate and Ron Kind is almost certain to run for WI senate, due to gerrymandering in WI.

But, Trump isnt gonna lose in a landslide

[ctherainbow]

Dems are gonna win WI and Pa, Fetterman will run for Gov, in a Joe Biden midterm. McGinty was too liberal for the state, in 2016, Dems will find a Fetterman candidacy for Senate and Ron Kind is almost certain to run for WI senate, due to gerrymandering in WI.

But, Trump isnt gonna lose in a landslide

What happened to Sestak?   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Biden is Prez, they had a feud with with the Specter in 2010 situation; as a result, in a Biden midterm, Conor Lamb will probably be the best option for Dems

[Pericles]

I think R+2, GOP gains AZ and NH, but I could see R+4. The GOP has a low ceiling here due to them having so many seats already but a low floor too due to most of their seats being in normally good or competitive territory for them and it being a Dem midterm. It's a bit like 2018 except while the Dems couldn't make much gains they could also lose quite a bit and the GOP won't have lots of seats that voted to the left of the nation and several that voted more than 10% to the left of the nation. An offensive strategy by Dems in a scenario where 2020 is 51 R-49 D could have a shot at getting 1 or 2 seats but would have somewhere around 65-75% odds of failing imo.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Wisconsin flips but not PA?  

I could see Wisconsin and Pennsylvania both flipping if Trump loses traction in the Rust Belt, and Georgia could continue to trend Dem and flip, but I don't really see a high possibility of Ron Johnson's seat going down while Toomey holds on.  Pennsylvania has been looking more hostile to Republicans since 2016 than Wisconsin has, and I don't see Toomey making up that difference with his incumbency/campaigning skills. 

Republicans came out of 2018 in PA far better than they came out of 2006. Both Rendell and Casey won by more than Wolf and Casey did in 2018, Republicans ended up down 11-8 with a GOP gerrymander, and they tied the delegation this time with a fair map. Republicans also held the State House of Representatives, which they lost in 2006 and both times were with Republican drawn maps.

There was also the understanding that Pat Toomey was more conservative than Santorum so there is no way he can possibly win, which since he is now a two term Senator I think the results speak for themselves.

PA is and will remain a closely divided state and we will have to see what happens in 2020 but after McCain lost it by 10%, Dems picked up the Erie based seat (then PA-03) and secured their majority in the House, few people gave Republicans a chance. The 2010 elections are a cautionary tale of predicting long term dominance in a closely divided swing state.

I’m not predicting long-term Democratic dominance in PA, though?  I simply stated that Pennsylvania in recent elections has been more hostile to Pubs than Wisconsin, hence I didn’t see Ron Johnson’s seat flipping in the same theoretical election that Toomey’s seat doesn't.  Did you not understand my original post, or maybe accidentally quoted the wrong person?   

My whole post was in response to your last sentence, "I don't see Toomey making that up with his incumbency advantage/campaigning skills". Hence why I started off by saying Republicans came out of 2018 far better than 2006 and yet Toomey was able to not only win in 2010 but get reelected as well. Basically you said Toomey isn't going to overcome this disadvantage and I responded by saying he overcame a worse one already.

[pops]

President Kamala Harris, Education Sec. Michael Bennet, and AG Richard Blumenthal resign for their new positions, Richard Shelby and Chuck Grassley resign because of age, and Burr already says he ain't running.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Wisconsin flips but not PA?  

I could see Wisconsin and Pennsylvania both flipping if Trump loses traction in the Rust Belt, and Georgia could continue to trend Dem and flip, but I don't really see a high possibility of Ron Johnson's seat going down while Toomey holds on.  Pennsylvania has been looking more hostile to Republicans since 2016 than Wisconsin has, and I don't see Toomey making up that difference with his incumbency/campaigning skills. 

Republicans came out of 2018 in PA far better than they came out of 2006. Both Rendell and Casey won by more than Wolf and Casey did in 2018, Republicans ended up down 11-8 with a GOP gerrymander, and they tied the delegation this time with a fair map. Republicans also held the State House of Representatives, which they lost in 2006 and both times were with Republican drawn maps.

There was also the understanding that Pat Toomey was more conservative than Santorum so there is no way he can possibly win, which since he is now a two term Senator I think the results speak for themselves.

PA is and will remain a closely divided state and we will have to see what happens in 2020 but after McCain lost it by 10%, Dems picked up the Erie based seat (then PA-03) and secured their majority in the House, few people gave Republicans a chance. The 2010 elections are a cautionary tale of predicting long term dominance in a closely divided swing state.

I'm  not disagreeing with your main point that PA is a closely divided state that Republicans can win in still, but I think comparing the Dem gubernatorial and Senate margins to 2006 isn't exactly fair. The country was a lot less polarized in 2006. You had Democrats win statewide races in the south by double digits in TN, AL, GA, FL, AR, and Democratic governors reelected in landslides in places like AZ, KS, OK, WY and what have you. The kinds of landslides possible in 2006 aren't possibly anymore (except in deep blue states where voters love their Democratic governors who call themselves Republicans). Essentially, when you account for the difference in national polarization, I would say that the 2018 PA Democratic showings were about as impressive as the 2006 ones. In no other swing state did Democrats overperform as much as they did across the board in Pennsylvania.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Wisconsin flips but not PA?  

I could see Wisconsin and Pennsylvania both flipping if Trump loses traction in the Rust Belt, and Georgia could continue to trend Dem and flip, but I don't really see a high possibility of Ron Johnson's seat going down while Toomey holds on.  Pennsylvania has been looking more hostile to Republicans since 2016 than Wisconsin has, and I don't see Toomey making up that difference with his incumbency/campaigning skills. 

Republicans came out of 2018 in PA far better than they came out of 2006. Both Rendell and Casey won by more than Wolf and Casey did in 2018, Republicans ended up down 11-8 with a GOP gerrymander, and they tied the delegation this time with a fair map. Republicans also held the State House of Representatives, which they lost in 2006 and both times were with Republican drawn maps.

There was also the understanding that Pat Toomey was more conservative than Santorum so there is no way he can possibly win, which since he is now a two term Senator I think the results speak for themselves.

PA is and will remain a closely divided state and we will have to see what happens in 2020 but after McCain lost it by 10%, Dems picked up the Erie based seat (then PA-03) and secured their majority in the House, few people gave Republicans a chance. The 2010 elections are a cautionary tale of predicting long term dominance in a closely divided swing state.

I'm  not disagreeing with your main point that PA is a closely divided state that Republicans can win in still, but I think comparing the Dem gubernatorial and Senate margins to 2006 isn't exactly fair. The country was a lot less polarized in 2006. You had Democrats win statewide races in the south by double digits in TN, AL, GA, FL, AR, and Democratic governors reelected in landslides in places like AZ, KS, OK, WY and what have you. The kinds of landslides possible in 2006 aren't possibly anymore (except in deep blue states where voters love their Democratic governors who call themselves Republicans). Essentially, when you account for the difference in national polarization, I would say that the 2018 PA Democratic showings were about as impressive as the 2006 ones. In no other swing state did Democrats overperform as much as they did across the board in Pennsylvania.

It is fair if the point is that there is a hole too deep for the GOP to climb out of. The very polarization you are talking about, means you have a higher GOP floor in the state then in 2006 and that by definition makes it easier, not harder, for the GOP to win.

[libertpaulian]

Democrats flip PA (with Wolf) and one other state (GA? NC?) but lose NH (with Sununu), so D+1, which could very well be enough to retake the Senate lol. D+0/no change if Ducey runs in AZ and beats Kelly.

Am I reading you correctly?  You're actually predicting a GOP GAIN in NH?!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

President Kamala Harris, Education Sec. Michael Bennet, and AG Richard Blumenthal resign for their new positions, Richard Shelby and Chuck Grassley resign because of age, and Burr already says he ain't running.

The GOP think in a Biden midterm Connor Lamb and Ron Kind cant win; also, Mark Kelly is gonna be successful if the Divided Senate passes gun control

[Politician]