NewYorkExpress
Atlas Star
Posts: 24,817
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« Reply #1 on: June 25, 2020, 10:21:38 PM » |
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My current ratings:
Alabama: Safe R (flip) (Even if Jeff Sessions pulls off a miracle comeback, and Jones and Trump refuse to endorse him, there's still no way Doug Jones wins reelection)
Arizona (special): Likely D (flip) (This is Mark Kelly's race to lose, but this one isn't over yet)
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Alaska: Likely R (probably the closest to Safe R status of the Likely R incumbents. I don't like Al Gross or Edgar Blatchford's chances much)
Arkansas: Safe R
Colorado: Safe D (flip) (It doesn't really matter if Hickenlooper or Romanoff wins the primary. Cory Gardner is going down regardless. That said, Hickenlooper winning might make the general election uncomfortably close)
Delaware: Safe D
Georgia: Tossup (Jon Ossoff's actually running a very strong campaign. The only thing keeping me from putting this one in the Lean D column is the likelihood that this will go to a runoff)
Georgia (special): Tilt R (While I agree Kelly Loeffler is DOA, none of the Democrats running (Richard Dien Winfield, Matt Lieberman, Ed Tarver, Raphael Warnock are impressing me much. While one of them will make the runoff, whether one of those candidates wins the runoff might depend on whether Biden and Ossoff win Georgia in November, or whether there is a second runoff in the other Senate race instead)
Idaho: Safe R (Paulette Jordan is a strong candidate, but this is Idaho we are talking about here)
Illinois: Safe D
Iowa: Tilt R (Theresa Greenfield's a stronger candidate than she appears, but this race will come down to whether Biden carries Iowa in November-remember he didn't win the Iowa Caucuses)
Kansas: Safe R (Even Kris Kobach should be able to win a Senate election in Kansas)
Kentucky: Lean R (Even if Charles Booker holds on and wins the Democratic Primary, Mitch McConnell is so unpopular that it's plausible he loses)
Louisiana: Safe R (Barring a late entry by Mitch Landrieu or Cedric Richmond, as we haven't hit the filing deadline, Bill Cassidy won't face a serious challenge)
Maine: Lean D (flip) (Susan Collins is in serious political danger, and I've been impressed by Sara Gideon's campaign to this point. Just a couple of more polls, and I'll move this one to Likely D)
Massachusetts: Safe D (Doesn't really matter if Kennedy III or Markey wins in the primary, they aren't losing in November)
Michigan: Likely D (Gary Peters is probably a poll or two away from being a lock to win)
Minnesota: Safe D (Tina Smith could have been in more trouble after the George Floyd protests, but luckily for her, her primary Republican opponent is a crazy ex-Representative. She might still get held to an embarrassingly poor result in the primary though.)
Mississippi: Safe R (There is no way a black man is winning a Senate race in Mississippi any time soon)
Montana: Tossup (I'm not sure Steve Daines is taking this race seriously)
Nebraska: Safe R (This was Safe R before Janicek imploded, it's still Safe R)
New Hampshire: Safe D (Jeanne Shaheen probably will be in trouble in 2026. However she drew weak opposition this year.)
New Jersey: Safe D
New Mexico: Safe D
North Carolina: Lean D (flip) (Unless Trump wins North Carolina by a significant margin, the coattails from the Governor's race should carry Cal Cunningham over the top here)
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Safe D
Rhode Island: Safe D
South Carolina: Likely R (Jamie Harrison's been polling well lately but I'm skeptical of his chances. That said, I wouldn't rule out an upset here)
South Dakota: Safe R
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Tilt R (I have both MJ Hegar and Royce West doing far better against Cornyn than anyone else does, but that's because I believe Biden will spend significant sums of money to try to win Texas. Even if they don't succeed that helps Democrats downballot)
Virginia: Safe D (Unlike in the Presidential Race, Virginia is currently Safe D)
West Virginia: Safe R
Wyoming: Safe R
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