Gravis Marketing - NV Poll, Trump Gains in the State
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Author Topic: Gravis Marketing - NV Poll, Trump Gains in the State  (Read 2392 times)
Pheurton Skeurto
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« Reply #25 on: August 20, 2019, 02:00:09 PM »
Quote from: mds32 on August 20, 2019, 06:51:45 AM
Love it. Always throw away a poll when it doesn't fit your narrative.

53% approve let's not forget Trump also underperforms approval polls in every poll we have seen so far imo.

"Always throw away a poll when it doesn't fit your narrative"

"Trump underperforms approval polls imo"

Pick one.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #26 on: August 20, 2019, 02:01:19 PM »
Quote from: SN2903 on August 20, 2019, 01:55:04 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 20, 2019, 06:45:39 AM
Trump's approval here is 53/44. We can discount this poll right now.
Why cause it's higher than you want?

It's junk because when you dig into the poll (which I did) the approval numbers are internally completely inconsistent; see my post upthread for details, if it's not too much trouble for you.  Also, I'm sure that everyone would expect that if Trump were really +9 in approval, his head-to-head numbers would be much better than they are.  The two don't go together.
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SN2903
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« Reply #27 on: August 20, 2019, 03:29:21 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 20, 2019, 02:01:19 PM
Quote from: SN2903 on August 20, 2019, 01:55:04 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 20, 2019, 06:45:39 AM
Trump's approval here is 53/44. We can discount this poll right now.
Why cause it's higher than you want?

It's junk because when you dig into the poll (which I did) the approval numbers are internally completely inconsistent; see my post upthread for details, if it's not too much trouble for you.  Also, I'm sure that everyone would expect that if Trump were really +9 in approval, his head-to-head numbers would be much better than they are.  The two don't go together.
Maybe but Nevada is a weird state. If you look at past history it tends to favor incumbents. Bush, Obama and I believe Clinton won it.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #28 on: August 20, 2019, 03:30:39 PM »
Gravis, Zogby, and Rasmussen. The three stooges.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #29 on: August 20, 2019, 03:32:32 PM »
Quote from: SN2903 on August 20, 2019, 03:29:21 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 20, 2019, 02:01:19 PM
Quote from: SN2903 on August 20, 2019, 01:55:04 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 20, 2019, 06:45:39 AM
Trump's approval here is 53/44. We can discount this poll right now.
Why cause it's higher than you want?

It's junk because when you dig into the poll (which I did) the approval numbers are internally completely inconsistent; see my post upthread for details, if it's not too much trouble for you.  Also, I'm sure that everyone would expect that if Trump were really +9 in approval, his head-to-head numbers would be much better than they are.  The two don't go together.
Maybe but Nevada is a weird state. If you look at past history it tends to favor incumbents. Bush, Obama and I believe Clinton won it.

This is true but not necessarily germane.  The key difference is that those three incumbents also won it in their first term election, while Trump did not win Nevada.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #30 on: August 20, 2019, 03:37:26 PM »
Sen Heck, Sen Heller, and Gov Laxalt love this poll.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #31 on: August 20, 2019, 03:59:14 PM »
NV is much Latino due to Vegas than it use to be, but it wont be a run-away, GOP usually do 3-4 points better on election day, but since the Senate is up for grabs, it can be a 300 EC victory, not 400, with TX
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Xing
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« Reply #32 on: August 20, 2019, 04:23:01 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on August 20, 2019, 03:37:26 PM
Sen Heck, Sen Heller, and Gov Laxalt love this poll.

Don't forget Sen. Angle!
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RI
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« Reply #33 on: August 20, 2019, 04:51:32 PM »
Yes, NV polling is terrible thanks to the Dem machine. However, the white population of NV is very Trump-y (especially if Mormons fall back in line, at least somewhat), and Trump could quite easily make gains here. Hispanics already turn out at very high rates here, and NV's Dem tilt is reliant on the Dems continually making further gains among them.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #34 on: August 20, 2019, 07:39:53 PM »
This poll is so adorable I just want to pinch its widdle cross-tabs.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #35 on: August 20, 2019, 07:51:05 PM »

Senator Dean Heller agrees.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #36 on: August 21, 2019, 01:04:26 AM »
Man, Gravis really came through for Senator Angle back in 2010. And Senator Heck in 2016. And Senator Heller in 2018.
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YE
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« Reply #37 on: August 21, 2019, 01:15:38 AM »
Quote from: Dr. RI on August 20, 2019, 04:51:32 PM
Yes, NV polling is terrible thanks to the Dem machine. However, the white population of NV is very Trump-y (especially if Mormons fall back in line, at least somewhat), and Trump could quite easily make gains here. Hispanics already turn out at very high rates here, and NV's Dem tilt is reliant on the Dems continually making further gains among them.

California transplants and the growing Hispanic population isn’t great news for the GOP. If Trump is winning here, he’s winning the PV which likely won’t happen.
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Hammy
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« Reply #38 on: August 21, 2019, 01:18:58 AM »
Atlas Cons have clearly learned nothing about Nevada or Gravis over the last several election cycles...
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Annatar
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« Reply #39 on: August 21, 2019, 05:50:09 AM »
I don't think the poll is worth much but Nevada is one of the Clinton states that is most likely to flip in 2020, it trended Republican in 2008-2012, trended Republican in 2012-2016 and it voted more Republican than the nation in terms of the house vote in 2018 whereas it had voted 2% more dem than the 2016 house vote meaning it trended Republican in the house vote in 2016-2018. It doesn't have a lot of angry white liberals that hate Trump but has a lot of non-college whites and Hispanics which are 2 groups which Trump can improve with in 2020.
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mds32
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« Reply #40 on: August 21, 2019, 09:22:52 AM »
Quote from: Hammy on August 21, 2019, 01:18:58 AM
Atlas Cons have clearly learned nothing about Nevada or Gravis over the last several election cycles...

Every election cycle they prove better than many other outlets that are raved about on this forum.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #41 on: August 21, 2019, 10:47:57 AM »
I do think Trump comes within 3, but the Dems should win this state again barring a landslide R victory. It isn’t part of the Rs path to 270 anymore.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #42 on: August 21, 2019, 06:45:45 PM »

Oh, of course. I nearly forgot that Nevada is so heavily Republican that they're the only state that is allowed to have three Republican Senators. Smiley
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #43 on: August 21, 2019, 08:26:19 PM »
It’s very possible Warren will lose Nevada if she’s the nominee and Trump gets to 328 EV
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #44 on: August 22, 2019, 02:38:49 AM »
Quote from: Old School Republican on August 21, 2019, 08:26:19 PM
It’s very possible Warren will lose Nevada if she’s the nominee and Trump gets to 328 EV

Sure, in the same way it's "very possible" that I'll become a starting pitcher for the Yankees next year.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #45 on: August 22, 2019, 06:55:31 AM »
« Edited: August 22, 2019, 08:01:47 AM by Cory Booker »
Quote from: For Trump everything, for immigrants the law on August 22, 2019, 02:38:49 AM
Quote from: Old School Republican on August 21, 2019, 08:26:19 PM
It’s very possible Warren will lose Nevada if she’s the nominee and Trump gets to 328 EV

Sure, in the same way it's "very possible" that I'll become a starting pitcher for the Yankees next year.

SN wanted Tulsi Gabbard to be nominee and she would been the weakest nominee, now he is saying Warren. Warren isnt a weak nominee
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #46 on: August 24, 2019, 03:49:07 PM »
This is Nevada.  Probably means everyone but Buttigieg is actually leading Trump.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #47 on: August 24, 2019, 06:12:25 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on August 24, 2019, 03:49:07 PM
This is Nevada.  Probably means everyone but Buttigieg is actually leading Trump.

Buttigieg would still beat Trump.
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krb08
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« Reply #48 on: August 27, 2019, 06:54:06 PM »
Quote from: SN2903 on August 20, 2019, 01:55:04 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 20, 2019, 06:45:39 AM
Trump's approval here is 53/44. We can discount this poll right now.
Why cause it's higher than you want?

The most delusional member of this forum chimes in again

Trump is not at +9 approval in Nevada. This poll shouldn't be taken seriously by a single person here, and neither should you, frankly.
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