Gravis Marketing - NV Poll, Trump Gains in the State
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Author Topic: Gravis Marketing - NV Poll, Trump Gains in the State  (Read 2391 times)
mds32
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« on: August 20, 2019, 06:36:16 AM »
Nevada Poll

Biden 49%
Trump 43%

Sanders 47%
Trump 44%

Trump 47%
Warren 46%

Trump 46%
Buttigieg 42%

Harris 45%
Trump 45%

https://t.co/0QQwLttNkl
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2019, 06:45:39 AM »
Trump's approval here is 53/44. We can discount this poll right now.
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mds32
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« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2019, 06:51:45 AM »
Love it. Always throw away a poll when it doesn't fit your narrative.

53% approve let's not forget Trump also underperforms approval polls in every poll we have seen so far imo.
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Politician
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« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2019, 06:52:30 AM »
inb4 Xingkerui
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JG
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« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2019, 06:54:08 AM »
Quote from: mds32 on August 20, 2019, 06:51:45 AM
Love it. Always throw away a poll when it doesn't fit your narrative.

53% approve let's not forget Trump also underperforms approval polls in every poll we have seen so far imo.

Trump's net approval nationwide is around -10 (give or take a point). Do you really think Nevada is almost 20 points to the right of the nation? Not to mention, Nevada polls are known to underestimate significantly the Democrats.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #5 on: August 20, 2019, 06:57:36 AM »
Morning Consult's average Trump approval in Nevada during his first 31 months in office has been -4.3%. Thus an approval of +9% for him in the state seems incredibly rosy and unlikely.
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mds32
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« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2019, 07:00:16 AM »
Nevada was EVEN in 2020 in terms of PVI and this poll just reinforces it.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2019, 07:29:57 AM »
Quote from: mds32 on August 20, 2019, 07:00:16 AM
Nevada was EVEN in 2020 in terms of PVI and this poll just reinforces it.

You have a time machine?
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Mr. Illini
liberty142
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« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2019, 07:34:27 AM »
Quote from: mds32 on August 20, 2019, 06:51:45 AM
Love it. Always throw away a poll when it doesn't fit your narrative.

53% approve let's not forget Trump also underperforms approval polls in every poll we have seen so far imo.

You think that every approval poll has been wrong because you "believe" that the President is popular?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2019, 07:37:09 AM »
Classic Nevada polling.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2019, 07:44:02 AM »
Nope, I'm calling junk on this one.  Look at the crosstabs for Trump approval (http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Nevada-General-and-Democratic-Caucus-August-16-2019.pdf, Q4)

White 69/31 (strongly 51/25)
African-American 48/51 (strongly 32/41)
Asian 61/35 (strongly 43/26)
Hispanic 63/37 (strongly 47/30)
Other 69/31 (strongly 51/25)

Apart from the fact that some of those are patently ridiculous, there is no way you could combine them to get an overall 53/44 approval.  I suspect they've mixed up some rows somewhere.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #11 on: August 20, 2019, 08:46:42 AM »
Nevada polling is meaningless until like a month before the race. Even still it's questionable at best.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #12 on: August 20, 2019, 09:03:37 AM »
So Trump has +9 approval rate but he is losing by 6 Huh?? lol
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #13 on: August 20, 2019, 09:05:56 AM »
NV polling history and Gravis is a bad combo.
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Thunder98
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« Reply #14 on: August 20, 2019, 09:20:11 AM »
Never trust Nevada polling, 2016 and 2018 should of been lessons learned.
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Gracile
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« Reply #15 on: August 20, 2019, 09:20:22 AM »
Imagine taking a Gravis poll of Nevada at face value...
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #16 on: August 20, 2019, 09:25:32 AM »
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on August 20, 2019, 09:03:37 AM
So Trump has +9 approval rate but he is losing by 6 Huh?? lol

The approval number is highly questionable, to say the least; see my post two before yours for more details.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: August 20, 2019, 09:33:44 AM »
NV was close last time and it will remain close
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #18 on: August 20, 2019, 09:34:33 AM »

If this is the best Trump can do in a NV poll at this point in time, the state is at least Likely D. Not that that’s surprising or anything.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #19 on: August 20, 2019, 09:55:15 AM »
All I need to know from this:

>>Gravis poll
>>>Nevada poll
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #20 on: August 20, 2019, 09:59:08 AM »
The pretty reliable trend in all Nevada polling over the last 15 years is that the GOP does 3-4 points better in the polls than they do on election day.
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Xing
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« Reply #21 on: August 20, 2019, 12:48:28 PM »
Wow, Nevada polls are usually junk, but this NV poll is exquisitely junky. I can't wait to see what the polling error in Nevada is going to be for 2020. If this poll is any indication, we might be in for a new record! Smiley
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SN2903
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« Reply #22 on: August 20, 2019, 01:55:04 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 20, 2019, 06:45:39 AM
Trump's approval here is 53/44. We can discount this poll right now.
Why cause it's higher than you want?
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SN2903
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« Reply #23 on: August 20, 2019, 01:55:46 PM »
Great #s for Trump.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #24 on: August 20, 2019, 01:57:22 PM »

No, he trails Biden by 49-43%
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