Norway local elections, 9th September 2019

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

These are right around the corner, and will act as a barometer for the incumbent centre-right Solberg led coalition. These were last held in 2015, with a very good set of results for Labour, who - looking at polling - probably won't replicate their great scores, with support mainly flowing to the other parts of the red bloc - the far-left Reds, the post-Eurocommunist Socialist Left, the Greens and the populist agrarians of Centre. AP have had a pretty dismal time in the last few years, being rocked by a MeToo scandal and generally being outflanked by their opponents

AP's woes are not benefiting the government parties however. Although Hoyre have got their plurality leads in bourgeois cities like Oslo and Bergen (more on the latter later) this is mostly a function of the left-wing vote flowing from AP, and if anything the numbers have shrunk from 2015, which was already a pretty lousy year for the Conservatives. The same is also true for the other right wing government parties. (The Liberals and Progress are doing especially in the polling for next general election).

One new party has emerged though: the FNB (Popular Movement— no to more road tolls) led by Bjørn Revil, a yellow vest style reaction against road tolls and eco-taxes but with a less poor base (at least, it's polling well in Oslo, Stavanger and especially Bergen, where it has a plurality in polling atm)

[Diouf]

Average of most recent Respons/VG, Norstat/NRK & TNS/TV2 polls (compared to 2015)

Local Elections

Ap 24.7% (-8.3%)
Høyre 21.3% (-1.9%)
Frp 7.2% (-2.3%)
Sp 14.5% (+6.0%)
Venstre 3.0% (-2.5%)
KrF 4.1% (-1.3%)
MDG 7.3% (+3.1%)
SV 6.5% (+2.4%)
Rødt 4.2% (+2.2%)
Others 7.2% (+2.6%)

[DavidB.]

Pretty spectacular how Ap are set to lose the most despite having been in opposition for six years and the government being pretty incompetent. You'd think Gahr Store would be moving towards the exit when the results look like the polling numbers.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Pretty spectacular how Ap are set to lose the most despite having been in opposition for six years and the government being pretty incompetent. You'd think Gahr Store would be moving towards the exit when the results look like the polling numbers.

in all fairness the scores are inflated a bit - the last time AP lost seats in a local election was 2003, and a lot of the cannibalisation from Centre, SV, R and MDG won't prevent him forming a government or existentially threaten the party (and the key problem: balancing the demands of the greens and that of the unions, remain regardless of leader). AP also strikes me as a party that is very deferential to the leadership - after all they kept him around after his terrible 2017 campaign.

[DavidB.]

True, the fact that he'd be forming a government based on these numbers anyway could save him. Still, there is a difference between losing a 50/50 general election after one term of a right-wing government and losing the next midterm election with much more damning figures while being behind on your GE result in the polls too.

[Diouf]

Oslo currently has a Ap-MDG-SV government backed by Rødt. The most recent local polls (all from June though) show great increases for both poles in the road toll debate, MDG and FNB. Voter movements suggest that FNB take voters from Ap, Høyre and Frp, while MDG primarily gains from V and Ap. Ap lose heavily to all sides here (as in the country generally), but increases for MDG, SV and Rødt means the current city government retains a majority if this is the result.

Average based on polls from Sentio/KK, Norstat/NRK & Respons/VG.

Ap 19.8% (-12.2%)
Høyre 25.9% (-5.9%)
MDG 14.8% (+6.7%)
V 4.7% (-2.2%)
Frp 6.0% (=)
SV 8.0% (+2.6%)
Rødt 8.0% (+3.0%)
KrF 1.4% (-1.0%)
Sp 1.5% (+0.9%)
FNB 8.9% (new)

[Diouf]

The government parties have reached an agreement on road toll. This agreement offers municipalities to get off cheaper with infrastructure investments as the expenditure will be split 66/33 between state and municipality funding instead of the current 50/50 split. The savings for the municipalities shall be split, so half of it goes to reduced road tolls and half for better public transportation. Furthermore, the overall effect of the project should be no increase in car traffic. This is expected to results in 8 billion NOK (0.8 b euro) in savings for municipalities, so a 4 billion reduction in road toll. Additionally, 1.4 billion NOK will be used to reduce road tolls on finished projects, and 0.5 billion NOK spent on better and cheaper public transport.

This agreement has been particularly important for Frp, who has faced severe criticism and internal rebellions for the increased road tolls in recent years. Venstre has been very critical of the need for such an agreement, and only accepted it reluctantly as the last of the four government parties and after getting increased public transportation investments. And party leader and Minister of Culture, Trine Skei Grande, said after the agreement, that the process had been poor. She wanted the issue dealt with in the normal budget negotiations, and criticized Frp for making big, unrealistic demands in public to start out negotiations inside the government.
The opposition is critical. Ap's Gahr Støre said that this seems like a deal "which does more for the Frp than for the environment and for public transportation", while SV's Lysbakken said Venstre and KrF had let down the environment and the climate.

[Diouf]

A new Oslo poll by Opinion for Dagsavisen, Fagbladet & FriFagbevægelse. In the box, it is compared to their poll from April.
Compared to the June polls, this shows a clearer win for the current city council majority. Ap does less bad and is only down to 24.5% and MDG is at 15.2%.

[Diouf]

Recent national average based on polls from Norstat/NRK/Aftenposten, TNS/TV2 and Respons/VG. So Ap and Høyre continues to slide. Interesting whether they will really go so low; must have incumbency effects in many places. Sp and MDG continue to rise. FNB is now shown separately from others by all the pollsters, and seem to have taken a slight hit after the road toll agreement.

Ap 23.3%
Høyre 20.1%
Frp 7.7%
Sp 15.4%
Venstre 4.1%
KrF 4.1%
MDG 8.0%
SV 6.5%
Rødt 3.9%
FNB 2.4%
Others 4.4%

[Diouf]

The five biggest municipalities:

Bærum, the richest and best educated municipality in the country, has had a Høyre-led administration ever since the beginning of party politics, except for 1952-1956. After the last election, Høyre formed a majority with Frp and KrF. Høyre looks to hold on, and can choose between a lot of potential coalition partners.
 
One recent poll from Sentio/Budstikken (compared to 2015):
Høyre 45.5% (+0.2%)
Ap 14.1% (-5.9%)
Venstre 9.0% (-0.7%)
Frp 5.4% (-2.2%)
MDG 12.6% (+6.3%)
SV 3.2% (+0.1%)¨
KrF 2.0% (-0.6%)
Rødt 2.3% (+0.9%)
Sp 2.9% (+1.7%)
Others (mainly pensioners' party) 3.0% (+0.2%)

Stavanger has shifted between red and blue since WWII, but since 1995 Høyre had led the city. In the last four years, the majority in the city administration was formed by the centre-right parties (Høyre, Frp, Krf, Sp & Venstre). The election will take place in the new Stavanger municipality as the city municipality is merging with two small island municipalities (Finnøy & Rennesøy). It looks very tight. The current majority could just continue, but the centre parties have opened for cooperation with the left-wing instead. And will anyone cooperate with FNB?

One recent poll from Respons/Aftenbladet (compared to 2015 in Stavanger city only)
Høyre 23.2% (-6.7%)
Ap 23.4% (-4.0%)
Frp 12.3% (+1.4%)
Venstre 6.1% (-2.2%)
KrF 4.8% (-1.1%)
MDG 5.8% (+0.6%)
SV 5.2% (+0.7%)
FNB 8.8% (+4.6%)
Sp 4.6% (+2.8%)
Rødt 4.7% (+3.4%)
Others 1.1% (-0.4%)

Trondheim has been mostly led by Ap mayors since WWII, but there have been around 15 years of Høyre rule. Since 2015, a centre-left majority with Ap, MDG, Sp, Venstre, KrF and Rødt has led the city. Ap will be able to hold on to the mayorship, but the increase for the red-green parties should move policies further left and perhaps kick out some out of the centrists from the majority.

One recent poll from Respons/VG
Ap 27.7% (-13.8%)
Høyre 22.4% (+2.4%)
MDG 9.2% (+1.5%)
Frp 6.1% (-0.3%)
SV 11.3% (+5.1%)
Venstre 4.9% (-0.6%)
Pensioners' party 3.7% (+0.2%)
KrF 1.3% (-1.9%)
Sp 6.7% (+4.0%)
Rødt 6.1% (+3.6%)
Others 0.6% (-0.1%)

Bergen has generally had centre-right majorities in most of the recent decades, but after 2015 a Ap-KrF-V majority was formed. With the Ap-collapse, the current majority is of course completely blown away. A large centre-left coalition (Ap, SV, KrF, MDG, Venstre, Sp) seems to be just around majority territory, potentially maybe with Rødt as outside support and without some of the centrist. FNB will have their most prominent result here, and if they (+Høyre and FrP) can convince some of the centrist parties, a centre-right majority also seems possible.

Average of two recent polls from Kantar/TV2 & Respons/BT
Ap 19.6% (-18.2%)
Høyre 22.1% (=)
Frp 4.7% (-4.0%)
SV 10.1% (+3.1%)
KrF 3.4% (-2.6%)
MDG 9.0% (+3.0%)
Venstre 3.4% (-2.1%)
Rødt 5.7% (+3.4%)
Sp 4.4% (+2.4%)
FNB 15.3% (new)
Others 2.5% (=)

Oslo have also had centre-right dominance for decades, but in 2015 a Ap-MDG-SV government backed by Rødt took office. Despite Ap's significant decline, the progress of the three other parties is likely to ensure a renewed majority for the current city administration + support party.

Average of three recent polls Norstat/NRK, Respons/VG & Kantar/TV2
Ap 21.2% (-10.8%)
Høyre 25.1% (-6.7%)
MDG 15.9% (+7.8%)
Venstre 4.7% (-2.2%)
Frp 5.8% (-0.2%)
SV 8.2% (+2.8%)
Rødt 8.0% (+3.0%)
KrF 1.6% (-0.8%)
Sp 1.9% (+1.3%)
FNB 6.0% (new)
Others 1.6% (-0.1%)

[Diouf]

So this is tonight. The polls close at different times around the country, but the latest closing time is 21.00. nrk.no and tv2.no will broadcast, and hopefully NRK wil have an unblocked stream. valgresultat.no will have official results, while pollofpolls.no will make live prognosis of the major municipalities as results start coming in.

National average of the final four polls from Kantar/TV2, Respons/VG, Norfakta/Klassekampen & Opinion/ANB

Ap 24.2%
Høyre 19.1%
Frp 7.8%
Sp 15.1%
Venstre 3.9%
KrF 4.2%
MDG 7.8%
SV 7.2%
Rødt 4.0%
Others 6.7%

Sp could end up with the most councillors on a result like this since they perform much better in the smaller, rural municipalities.

[Diouf]

So 30 minutes to the polls close, and the results will start coming in. Many of the postal votes should come in quickly. NRK's stream on their front page works in Denmark, so probably also elsewhere.

[Diouf]

NRK Exit poll

Ap 24.4% (-8.6%)
Høyre 20.0% (-3.2%)
Frp 7.8% (-1.7%)
Sp 12.7% (+4.2%)
KrF 3.4% (-2.0%)
MDG 8.2% (+3.9%)
Venstre 3.4% (-2.1%)
SV 6.6% (+2.4%)
Rødt 4.5% (+2.5%)
FNB 2.9% (new)

EDIT: Is early voting results

[Diouf]

They mentioned briefly some results in some cities, but no numbers for individual parties

In Bergen, the result is very much on the line. The centre-left (KrF, Venstre + left-wing parties) just seem to miss out on a majority, which means FNB + Sp + Pensioner's Party can form a majority with the right wing if they can find agreement.

In Oslo, the current governing coalition retains a majority. Ap is down to 19% and MDG up to 17%.

In Trondheim, Ap is down a lot, but big increases for red-green parties mean Ap will still lead the city

In Tromsø. Sp and MDG + local parties haven't committed to either side, and will decide who gets to govern.

[Diouf]

It seems that it is mostly based on early voting. One third of the votes already counted nationwide, which must be largely early voting plus polling places who closed before 21.00

[Diouf]

A look at the five biggest municipalities currently.

Bærum. 48.8% counted. Høyre remains clearly largest on 43.6% (-1.7%). Ap retains second with 14.4% (-5.7%), while MDG is up to third on 10.4% (+4.2%). The current majority (Høyre + Frp + KrF) is at 27 seats (-2) in a 51 seat council, so can continue, but Høyre can basically choose whichever coalition partner it wants.

Stavanger. 30.9% counted. Close race for first between Ap on 24.2% (-2.8%) and Høyre on 22.5% (-6.5%). FNB at 10.4%. The current centre-right majority (Høyre, Frp, KrF, Sp, Venstre) has lost its majority with 30 seats (-6) in the 67 seat council. The red-green parties are also at 30 seats, so will need to convince some of the centrist parties if they are to form a majority. Perhaps the centre-right majority could ditch Venstre and talk to FNB?, which would currently just be enough for a majority.

Trondheim. 32.6% counted. Ap getting slaugthered and is down to 24.1% (-17.2%), but SV on 11.8% (+5.5%), MDG on 11.7% (+4.1%) and Rødt on 7.7% (+5.3%) make big progress. In the last four years, Ap has led on a supermajority with MDG, Rødt and three centrist parties (Sp, KrF, Venstre), while SV stayed in opposition due to the inclusion of the centrists. With the large Ap defeat, and progress for SV, MDG and Rødt, I think they would now demand a pure red-green majority coalition.

Bergen. 47.0% counted. A tight three-way fight for first place. Høyre on 19.9% (-2.2%), Ap on 19.3% (-18.6%) and FNB on 18.6% (new). Ap's coalition partners are also down, KrF down to 2.8% (-3.3%) and Venstre down to 3.1% (-2.3%). The council has 67 seats. If FNB is not included, it will take many parties to form a majority. Høyre + FNB + Frp + Sp is one seat short, so if they can convince KrF, Venstre or a Pensioner's Party, they have a majority.

Oslo. 39.8% counted. Høyre largest party at 24.0% (-7.8%). Ap down to 19.8% (-12.2%), but the red-green majority remains due to increases for MDG at 16.9% (+8.7%), SV at 8.9% (+3.5%) and Rødt at 8.1% (+3.0%). The parties are now at 32 seats (+1) in the 59 seat council

[Diouf]

The first numbers were only early voting, so parties with many polling day voters (SP in particular) is rising, while left-liberal parties with early voters sliding a bit. Sp making big gains around the country, but particularly some spectacular increases in rural areas.

[Diouf]

So if this were a national election, it would be a clear opposition victory with 57.6% and even Rødt across the 4% threshold. However, a diminished Ap would face tough negotiations if they are to form a government with insurgent parties centre and left. Sp will be wary of agreements with MDG and Rødt, so other majorities could come in play. And like the last time, the 4% threshold will be crucial for several parties.

[Diouf]

Sp looking set to make its best local election ever, by far. In 1971 and 1991 it won 11.5%, and in 1995 its current record of 11.6%. Now, they are at 15.9% with 55.3% counted.
Ap, on the other hand, is getting its worst result ever. The current low point was the 27.5% in 2003. Now, they are at 25.1%

[Diouf]

All four government parties are down, but the most destabilizing factor is probably Venstre's poor result. They are down at 3.5% (-2.0%), which is their worst result ever. Lower than the 3.7% from 1975 and 1991. Trine Skei Grande's time as leader seems to be running out, and there is widespread dissatisfaction in the party about its results in government, and the compromises favouring other parties (recently KrF on abortion and Frp on road toll taxes). Maybe they will try with a party leader shift to start out, but there is also a strategic choice. Should they make more noise and signal their strength to their core left-liberal voters, who are deserting to MDG, or stay very loyal and quiet and hope soft Høyre voters might lend them a vote (again) to keep them above the 4% threshold.
It is also a poor result for Frp, where government participation is wearing support down. However, 8.4% (-1.1%) is probably better than feared, but it is third local election in a row with losses since the 17.5% in 2007. They will hope that FNB-fever dies down before the general election. And if both they and Venstre turn up the volume, the splits in government could become so big that the government falls apart.
I guess KrF is reasonably satisfied with 4.4% (-1.0%), above the general election threshold, after their long split over which side to turn.

[Diouf]

Result with 89.7% counted

Ap 25.1%
Høyre 19.7%
Sp 15.3%
Frp 8.5%
MDG 6.2%
SV 5.8%
KrF 4.2%
Venstre 3.6%
Rødt 3.6%
Others 8.1%

[Diouf]

Final results

Ap 24.8% (-8.2%)
Høyre 20.2% (-3.0%)
Sp 14.4% (+5.9%)
Frp 8.3% (-1.2%)
MDG 6.7% (+2.4%)
SV 6.0% (+1.9%)
KrF 4.0% (-1.5%)
Venstre 3.8% (-1.7%)
Rødt 3.8% (+1.8%)
Others 8.0% (+4.8%)

So V just avoided their worst result ever in the end, and a more acceptable result than it seemed during the night.

[Diouf]

In Stavanger, FNB is negotiating with Ap, Sp, SV, Rødt and MDG about a majority. Especially the coperation with the two latter parties does not seem to be going down well among their voters.
In Oslo, it seems almost certain that the current red-green majority will continue. SV is saying that Rødt should join the coalition instead of being just a support party, but so far the far-left party is rejecting that idea.
In Bergen, Sp is indicating that they will try to negotiate with the left-wing first. In order, to reach a majority, it will be an agreement with Ap, MDG, SV, Rødt, Venstre & KrF.

On the national level, Ap's deputy leader Hadia Tajik maintained that the most logical government formation would be with Sp and SV despite MDG's big progress.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

what would be the big demands for the Reds and Greens to support a national government?

[Diouf]

what would be the big demands for the Reds and Greens to support a national government?

Everytime, I see Bjørnar Moxnes from Rødt, he talks about how horrible it is that private companies can make profits by carrying out public sector tasks.
The Greens wants to stop new drilling projects, and phase out oil extraction plus increased climate taxes and road toll.
So climate change actions and opposition to private welfare companies are the issues where each party will need concessions. Both there are several other issues (defense spending, immigration, taxes, abortion, trade union conditions, centralization, wolves etc.), where they come into conflict with Sp and some parts of Ap.