MA-SEN Megathread: Senator Markey wins

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1162576908359524357?s=19

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1163120272066666498

Closing in for the kill.

[Skye]

Oh boy. This is going to be exciting.

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/JamesPindell/status/1172563465568960512
👀

[Skye]

Can we get an F in the chat for our boi Markey?

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/MEPFuller/status/1174752790549270531

You can't say that with a straight face. I mean, come on.

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1175108450017316864

Yikes. They're going all in.

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/joekennedy/status/1175389273270489093?s=19

He's in.

[Skye]

We all know the sole reason for this run is a launchpad for President.

Sure, every politician dreams of being president one day. But, assuming a Democrat wins next year and doesn't choose a running mate in his seventies, there won't be a real opening for Kennedy for another 16 years at least. I seriously doubt a potential presidential bid is factoring into his decision at this point.

Even if a Democrat wins in 2020 and then in 2024, there's no guarantee the VP is sure to become the next Democratic nominee. You're being overly pessimistic.

[Skye]

I think we all need to accept if/when Kennedy wins this primary he'll be running for the Presidency in 4 years time

Hard to imagine that if Biden wins. If not, I could picture the 2024 primary being Kennedy v. AOC. That'd be lit.

[Skye]

🔥🔥🔥

https://twitter.com/EdMarkey/status/1287939469300178944

All this pandering to the Twitter crowd and trying to be hip and cool by posting lo-fi edits and RTing fanmade anime intros is super embarrassing and almost makes me want to support Kennedy.

I mean, props to him for knowing his demographic.

[Skye]

Pro-Kennedy PAC to launch ad barrage:

https://twitter.com/vgmac/status/1290114126388375552

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1291574194610638848

[Skye]

Sorry to interrupt your ideological fights, but I've been wondering something for a while and I wanted to ask here to see if anybody knows.

Do we know in which regions exactly each candidate will perform the best (outside their own CD's, of course)?

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/vgmac/status/1296484779215532034

This is a bit of a surprise.

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/vgmac/status/1296484779215532034

This is a bit of a surprise.

Not particularly. If someone challenges an incumbent from the left who votes with Trump 70% of the time, they're an upstart and anyone who works with them needs to be cast out of the party. Squash them like the bug that they are!

If someone challenges a noncontroversial incumbent from the right, they're a "courageous leader" and a "rising star".

Let's all be real about this.

If I understand correctly, Pelosi will back every incumbent in the House during a primary, no matter if they're challenged from the right or the left (Remember the Omar endorsement a few days ago?).

It's surprising because this is a Senate race and she's making a move.

And if we're being real, this Kennedy challenge isn't exactly from "the right".

[Skye]

Pelosi recorded a vid as well:

https://twitter.com/JTHVerhovek/status/1296496214440108033

[Skye]

AOC firing shots as well 👀

https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1296498853517176832

[Skye]

Just remember:

We are watching you.

We will remember you.

And come January, when you ask for our help to keep your gavel, we will replace you.

This January? No way Pelosi gets replaced if the Dems keep the majority.

[Skye]

FEC filings for the period are out. Markey outraised Kennedy $1.5M to $900k, and he has significantly more cash on hand ($3.5M to $1.37M) but Kennedy's campaign outspent Markey's by $1.5M this period:

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1296540093889429504

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1296641959323303937

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/JohnMcCormackMA/status/1296902692716060672
Speaker John McCormack and the OSC with a model here. Markey +1 at the moment, seems pretty reasonable, although they do say that Kennedy is picking up momentum that is too early to quantify now.

I forgot to add, I find this really impressive. To do a prediction by town must not be easy. Even if it's way off, props to them for the effort.

[Skye]

The towns of that part of Mass are visited frequently by the three boys (I note in passing that rumor has it that dispensaries exist in the area). Anecdotally, Great Barrington is a bit more diverse than Lenox and Stockbridge. In the latter two towns, I think it might be illegal not only to be poor, but to be anything other than rich. How many of such rich Democrats vote in the Berkshires, as opposed to the their address in Manhattan, is another matter.

And then there is the the town of Egremont, that I might be suing because they closed their dog park to non residents even though it is largely empty. That is Unconstitutional, and Massachusetts has a fee shifting statute wherein if one prevails on a Constitutional claim, the governmental entity must pay your legal fees. Their inbred idiot town attorney that brags that his pedigree goes back to the beginning of time in the Berkshires (for white people anyway) advised the town, that 1) my claim had no merit, and 2) that the town should close the park to everyone. Hmmm. Folks, you just cannot make this up. If I get motivated enough to do this (the claim of course would be filed in federal court in Springfield, just to scare the sh*t out of the inbred attorney), and the town chooses option two (screw the residents just to legally screw a non resident), then I plan to get the voter list, and mail a note to everyone (other than the three fossils on the selectboard), that perhaps it is time perhaps for them to consider a regime change in the next election, because their town hall denizens appear to be channeling Trump as they sink into a toxic mix of dementia and xenophobia.

I might add that when I appeared at their town meeting by Zoom, it was gratifying to view their mix of fear and loathing (channeling a bit of Hunter Thompson there myself. This particular old man can still make a difference! Who knew?

Oh, the Guidos grocery store in Great Barrington is outstanding - if you can afford it. A couple of night's ago, we consumed some swordfish bought there, and it was to die for.

Images on the way!

Now this is a name I haven't seen in a while...

[Skye]

Between Data for Progress and the new UMass/Lowell poll, it's clear that Markey is the favorite. Kennedy would need the race to seriously change for him to have a clear shot.

Wouldn't want to bet on primaries, but yeah, Kennedy seems to be a clear underdog ATM. Question is, where does he go from here if he loses? I know people in this thread have said his political career would be over, but I honestly find it hard for a Kennedy to not have a political career in the state if they didn't want to.

[Skye]

The OSC Elections model has been updated. Markey now leads Kennedy 53-47:

https://oscelections.shinyapps.io/OSCElections/

[Skye]

A RABA Research/Jewish Insider poll has Kennedy beating Markey by 7 points in MA-01, though with tons of undecideds:

Kennedy 44
Markey 37
Not sure 19

For context, the poll also found incumbent Rep. Richard Neal leading his progressive challenger Alex Morse 49/40.

https://jewishinsider.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/RABAJewish-Insider-MA01-August-2020.pdf