Crooked Media/Change Research WI Poll: Dem 46% Trump 45%

[History505]

https://twitter.com/jonfavs/status/1162000899251699713

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems have a slight advantage

[RI]

That's pretty good for Trump for a Generic Dem poll.

[Frenchrepublican]

The result seems credible. WI is clearly the most ’’pure tossup’’ state with AZ, if Trump is able to rebound in WOW counties he should be able to carry it.

[Mr. Morden]

Some of the favorability #s in this poll seem a little hard to swallow:

fav/unfav %:
Obama 48/46% for +2%
Evers 45/45% for +/-0
Baldwin 43/45% for -2%
Trump 45/51% for -6%
Buttigieg 31/38% for -7%
Warren 41/50% for -9%
Ron Johnson 31/44% for -13%
Ocasio-Cortez 37/52% for -15%
Sanders 37/54% for -17%
Harris 28/50% for -22%
Biden 29/57% for -28%
Pelosi 28/58% for -30%

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Some of the favorability #s in this poll seem a little hard to swallow:

fav/unfav %:
Obama 48/46% for +2%
Evers 45/45% for +/-0
Baldwin 43/45% for -2%
Trump 45/51% for -6%
Buttigieg 31/38% for -7%
Warren 41/50% for -9%
Ron Johnson 31/44% for -13%
Ocasio-Cortez 37/52% for -15%
Sanders 37/54% for -17%
Harris 28/50% for -22%
Biden 29/57% for -28%
Pelosi 28/58% for -30%

LOLOLOL What? Obama 48-46 but Biden 29/57? How does that many any sense? Oh, wait I forgot, it's american voters were talking about

[TML]

This poll shows that neither major party has 50%+ of the vote share, so this state is up for grabs. Remember that although 2016 polls had Clinton leading this state, almost all of them (especially the ones in the days leading up to Election Day) had her vote share at less than 50%, which meant the potential for a last-minute surge to tip the state to Trump existed (as had actually happened).

[Pollster]

Biden's favorability is a big eyebrow-raiser.

[Kung Fu Kenny]

I literally do not believe Pete’s favorability is that low

[President Johnson]

Sorry, not buying it, especially these favorable numbers seem completely off.

Biden and Bernie are ahead by double digits in Michigan and Pennsylvania, even tied or ahead in Iowa and Ohio. While the double digit leads seem too high as well, Wisconsin isn't voting that much to the right compared to Pennsylvania and Michigan. It is, however, the state Trump is most likely to win or the one he will perform best among these three.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Change research has always been trash. I don’t understand why we take some of their polls seriously...

[Frenchrepublican]

Sorry, not buying it, especially these favorable numbers seem completely off.

Biden and Bernie are ahead by double digits in Michigan and Pennsylvania, even tied or ahead in Iowa and Ohio. While the double digit leads seem too high as well, Wisconsin isn't voting that much to the right compared to Pennsylvania and Michigan. It is, however, the state Trump is most likely to win or the one he will perform best among these three.

The only problem with your logic is that neither Biden nor Sanders will win PA and MI by double digits, yeah both of them would be favoured but there is absolutely no way they win these two states by such lopsided margins.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Awful! The state is still a tossup, I'm not getting too ahead of myself with the bed-wetting, but this is where the election will be won or lost, so for a Democrat to only lead by 1% and be under 50% basically means that Trump wins.

[SN2903]

Amazing poll. The Midwest is going to reelect the Donald

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Amazing poll. The Midwest is going to reelect the Donald

No

[Landslide Lyndon]

Amazing poll. The Midwest is going to reelect the Donald

If you believe that 90% of Wisconsinites have an opinion about AOC then you might as well believe that.

[cvparty]

need 2 see more polls

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Is Crooked Media a real company or is it just people complaining about the media being "crooked" or supporting "Crooked Hillary"?

[SN2903]

need 2 see more polls

Dems are weak in WI. Face it.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Some of the favorability #s in this poll seem a little hard to swallow:

fav/unfav %:
Obama 48/46% for +2%
Evers 45/45% for +/-0
Baldwin 43/45% for -2%
Trump 45/51% for -6%
Buttigieg 31/38% for -7%
Warren 41/50% for -9%
Ron Johnson 31/44% for -13%
Ocasio-Cortez 37/52% for -15%
Sanders 37/54% for -17%
Harris 28/50% for -22%
Biden 29/57% for -28%
Pelosi 28/58% for -30%

So in summary:

In a swing state, Biden has 30% higher unfavorables than he does nationally.

86% of voters have an opinion of Biden or Pelosi while 89% have an opinion of Ocasio-Cortez.

Ocasio-Cortez has a higher favorability rating than Sanders, Harris, and Biden.

This seems completely outlandish.  None of these results are consistent with any sort of ideological spectrum.  The Firehouse-Optimus poll a few weeks ago had Biden leading Trump by 8 points here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

need 2 see more polls

Dems are weak in WI. Face it.

WI is a battleground state and it will be a one, the only person that think that it will be a landslide is Solid and he hasnt posted lately, which is telling

[pbrower2a]

New pollster, questionable self-description ("Crooked Media")?, and results way out of line.

I would like to see a reputable poll of Wisconsin, and this one might inspire such. I am not using it. Sure, Wisconsin is likely to be more R than Michigan (Wisconsin has fewer blacks; Greater Detroit is much bigger than Greater Milwaukee). But if Michigan goes against Trump by 9%. Wisconsin goes by 6% and Iowa by 4% -- and Minnesota by 7%.

[eric82oslo]

New pollster, questionable self-description ("Crooked Media")?, and results way out of line.

Crooked Media is the California based media company launched in 2017 by former members of the Obama administration, including his speechwriter. It's a pun on Trump calling Hillary for Crooked Hillary.

https://crooked.com/