Change in Partisan Voter Registration Since 2016 Election

[RI]

In 1% increments:



I couldn't find data for UT by county or 2016 data for Rhode Island.

[Green Line]

In 1% increments:



I couldn't find data for UT by county or 2016 data for Rhode Island.

Very interesting.  For the most part, established trends continue to play out.  Multnomah County OR, Clark NV, rural CO, and some parts of rural NY are the outliers.  I wonder if there are explanations for them.

[Zaybay]

In 1% increments:



I couldn't find data for UT by county or 2016 data for Rhode Island.

Very interesting.  For the most part, established trends continue to play out.  Multnomah County OR, Clark NV, rural CO, and some parts of rural NY are the outliers.  I wonder if there are explanations for them.

None of those are really outliers.

-NV always gains in Rs in odd years and gains in Ds in presidential years. Its mostly due to the fact that the D voter base in NV is rather low-info and likely to fall off voter rolls.

- Western Rural CO has been trending D, though it slid a bit back in 2016.

-Rural OR is similar to the above, in fact 2018 was the best election for the Ds ever since that seat has existed in its current form, even better than 2008 and 2006.

- The Hudson River Valley saw the biggest trend towards the Ds(besides Staten Island) in NY, and the two districts the Ds gained were based on large gains in this area.

Anyway, great work Dr. RI!

[Green Line]

In 1% increments:



I couldn't find data for UT by county or 2016 data for Rhode Island.

Very interesting.  For the most part, established trends continue to play out.  Multnomah County OR, Clark NV, rural CO, and some parts of rural NY are the outliers.  I wonder if there are explanations for them.

None of those are really outliers.

-NV always gains in Rs in odd years and gains in Ds in presidential years. Its mostly due to the fact that the D voter base in NV is rather low-info and likely to fall off voter rolls. - Then it is an outlier... and that would be the explanation.

- Western Rural CO has been trending D, though it slid a bit back in 2016. - No it hasn't.  I just checked again.

-Rural OR is similar to the above, in fact 2018 was the best election for the Ds ever since that seat has existed in its current form, even better than 2008 and 2006. - Asked about the county containing Portland, not rural..

- The Hudson River Valley saw the biggest trend towards the Ds(besides Staten Island) in NY, and the two districts the Ds gained were based on large gains in this area. - Hudson Valley trended massively towards Trump.  Its ridiculous to base a trend off a mid-term congressional election.

Anyway, great work Dr. RI!

[Zaybay]

In 1% increments:



I couldn't find data for UT by county or 2016 data for Rhode Island.

Very interesting.  For the most part, established trends continue to play out.  Multnomah County OR, Clark NV, rural CO, and some parts of rural NY are the outliers.  I wonder if there are explanations for them.

None of those are really outliers.

-NV always gains in Rs in odd years and gains in Ds in presidential years. Its mostly due to the fact that the D voter base in NV is rather low-info and likely to fall off voter rolls. - Then it is an outlier... and that would be the explanation.Well, not really. Its been happening for the past 2 decades, so at this point its pretty much expected.

- Western Rural CO has been trending D, though it slid a bit back in 2016. - No it hasn't.  I just checked again.Western CO has been trending D, just take a look at the results from 2008 onward in the area.

-Rural OR is similar to the above, in fact 2018 was the best election for the Ds ever since that seat has existed in its current form, even better than 2008 and 2006. - Asked about the county containing Portland, not rural..That is my mistake, a likely explanation would be just low-info Ds dropping off in a midterm year.

- The Hudson River Valley saw the biggest trend towards the Ds(besides Staten Island) in NY, and the two districts the Ds gained were based on large gains in this area. - Hudson Valley trended massively towards Trump.  Its ridiculous to base a trend off a mid-term congressional election.
Yes, it did trend towards Trump, and then in 2018 it trended back. These numbers are for after 2016 registration changes, so basically the changes leading up to the 2018 election. The areas that the Ds massively improved in to win seats like NY-19 were in the Hudson River valley so its not really unexpected.
Anyway, great work Dr. RI!

[Green Line]

In 1% increments:



I couldn't find data for UT by county or 2016 data for Rhode Island.

Very interesting.  For the most part, established trends continue to play out.  Multnomah County OR, Clark NV, rural CO, and some parts of rural NY are the outliers.  I wonder if there are explanations for them.

None of those are really outliers.

-NV always gains in Rs in odd years and gains in Ds in presidential years. Its mostly due to the fact that the D voter base in NV is rather low-info and likely to fall off voter rolls. - Then it is an outlier... and that would be the explanation.Well, not really. Its been happening for the past 2 decades, so at this point its pretty much expected.  This is what an outlier is.

- Western Rural CO has been trending D, though it slid a bit back in 2016. - No it hasn't.  I just checked again.Western CO has been trending D, just take a look at the results from 2008 onward in the area. - Every Western county Im looking at has trended R since 2008.

-Rural OR is similar to the above, in fact 2018 was the best election for the Ds ever since that seat has existed in its current form, even better than 2008 and 2006. - Asked about the county containing Portland, not rural..That is my mistake, a likely explanation would be just low-info Ds dropping off in a midterm year. - Why does that apply specifically to Portland and not every other urban D county.

- The Hudson River Valley saw the biggest trend towards the Ds(besides Staten Island) in NY, and the two districts the Ds gained were based on large gains in this area. - Hudson Valley trended massively towards Trump.  Its ridiculous to base a trend off a mid-term congressional election.
Yes, it did trend towards Trump, and then in 2018 it trended back. These numbers are for after 2016 registration changes, so basically the changes leading up to the 2018 election. The areas that the Ds massively improved in to win seats like NY-19 were in the Hudson River valley so its not really unexpected. Again, you can't call midterm election results a trend.
Anyway, great work Dr. RI!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Ok first off, can you reply like a normal person and not use colors for this? It gives me a headache trying to understand what you said GreenLine. Second, I really don't think you understand what an outlier is.

[cvparty]

Ok first off, can you reply like a normal person and not use colors for this? It gives me a headache trying to understand what you said GreenLine. Second, I really don't think you understand what an outlier is.

lol they're making the rainbow

[Gass3268]

This backs up my theory that Iowa and Kansas are going to surprise people in 2020. Neither states look like the Demageddon that has taken place in the Appalachia or the South.

[HisGrace]

This backs up my theory that Iowa and Kansas are going to surprise people in 2020. Neither states look like the Demageddon that has taken place in the Appalachia or the South.

You think the Dems are going to win Kansas?

[DINGO Joe]

The three counties in Nebraska that are trending D in voter registration make up 56% of the states population.

[Gass3268]

This backs up my theory that Iowa and Kansas are going to surprise people in 2020. Neither states look like the Demageddon that has taken place in the Appalachia or the South.

You think the Dems are going to win Kansas?

No, but it's going to be closer than it has been in a long time.

[RINO Tom]

Nice work!  What do the updated maps look like, and which counties flipped?

[walleye26]

Can anybody explain to me what the heck is up with that county in far western Nebraska and what’s up with the rural western counties in Kansas? I understand JoCo and Riley, but (I think it’s Finney) and surrounding counties in southwestern Kansas trended D, what’s up with that?

[MaxQue]

Can anybody explain to me what the heck is up with that county in far western Nebraska and what’s up with the rural western counties in Kansas? I understand JoCo and Riley, but (I think it’s Finney) and surrounding counties in southwestern Kansas trended D, what’s up with that?

Half of Finney population is Hispanic.