Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections) (user search)
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Poll
Question: Which party would you vote for in the Parliamentary election?
#1
PNL
#2
PSD
#3
USR
#4
PRO-ALDE
#5
PMP
#6
UDMR
#7
AUR
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Partisan results


Author Topic: Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)  (Read 77476 times)
Estrella
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Posts: 2,011
Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas)


« on: August 11, 2019, 01:16:50 PM »

Hey and welcome!

I have a question. From what I know about Romanian politics, it seems like ideology is, at best, an afterthought, and conflicts are mostly around clashes of egos. If that's true, then is there some overarching...thing that differentiates the parties? I understand that Romanian politics used to be based around one's opinion of Băsescu, but now that he's gone, what's the dividing line? Is it something like mildly autocratic Ceaușescu nostalgics (PSD and their puppets) vs. everybody else? Or am I entirely wrong about this?
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Estrella
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,011
Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas)


« Reply #1 on: August 11, 2019, 04:25:05 PM »

Hey and welcome!

I have a question. From what I know about Romanian politics, it seems like ideology is, at best, an afterthought, and conflicts are mostly around clashes of egos. If that's true, then is there some overarching...thing that differentiates the parties? I understand that Romanian politics used to be based around one's opinion of Băsescu, but now that he's gone, what's the dividing line? Is it something like mildly autocratic Ceaușescu nostalgics (PSD and their puppets) vs. everybody else? Or am I entirely wrong about this?
You'd be entirely correct if you gave this answer 15 years ago, however ever since Basescu's election a more coherent debate started to emerge in Romania, between West vs East. And I don't mean that geo-politically (even PSD was afraid to attack the EU before Dragnea came along) but more like a debate on the political/cultural/organisation system the country should adopt. It is between the syncronisation with the Western Countries or adopting a model whose best comparison, even through imperfect, is with the one of Belarus. Basescu was the one who started this debate even through its roots were already in the society, by adopting a more West-leaning speech compared to all other politicians (calling Basescu a supported of the Western system, would be incorrect, he was rather a moderate on this debate), which is the reason he was so polarising. The 2010 austerity measures stopped this debate for a while, the focus being driven towards Basescu and his drastic cuts. However, once Basescu and his party lost control due to popular anger, Victor Ponta and then even more so Liviu Dragnea governed exactly in the "Eastern" way, which would be fine in 2000 but not in 2019. This led to a wave of hostility against them and their party, PSD, and made Romanians more and more leaning towards the "Western" side. If we were to translate this theory to the existing parties, USR-PLUS would be the "party of the West", PSD-ALDE-UDMR and disguised ProRo the one of the East. PNL is rather incoherent on all of this. Hope I clarified things for you all.

Thanks a lot! Smiley
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Estrella
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Posts: 2,011
Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas)


« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2019, 06:17:17 AM »

What kind of people vote for ALDE? The same embarassed ex-PSD crowd that supports Ponta?
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Estrella
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Posts: 2,011
Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas)


« Reply #3 on: March 30, 2020, 09:59:16 PM »

I've just watched the movie Colectiv (it's on HBO Go, if anyone is interested) about the fire in the nightclub of the same name which killed 64 people and led to the fall of Ponta government. I can only recommend watching it - it puts a whole lot of things that are happening in Romanian politics and society into perspective. Now I understand the outrage this tragedy sparked - I apologize to the good ones, but, frankly, a large part of Romanian healthcare administrators, contractors and yes, doctors and nurses, make Marcelo Odebrecht or Gaetano Badalamenti look like paragons of moral probity or at least doing their f-ing job and not killing people - and when they do, the mafia at least does it for a purpose, not out of laziness.

Seriously, I think I've never been made so angry and emotional by a movie before. Let's hope that things have improved at least a little since then, because somehow I don't think that 100x diluted disinfectant is going to be very effective against coronavirus.

Sorry for the rant.
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Estrella
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,011
Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas)


« Reply #4 on: April 01, 2020, 05:46:38 PM »

Thanks to Colectiv and corona-induced boredom, I've decided to turn my interest in Romanian politics into something creative.

Here it goes — the diagram of all Romanian legislative elections since 1990!

Some notes before we get to it, though:
1) Romania is a bicameral country
2) That in itself wouldn't be a problem, if it wasn't constantly trying to beat Italy in the competition to create world's most demented electoral system
3) As a consequence of 2), both chambers have a similar composition, but a wildly varying number of members from election to election
4) Hence I decided to add the parties' seats in both houses together and display them as a share of the whole legislature, whatever its size is. The numbers show the parties' total number of seats in Chamber+Senate.


Right click for a bigger version

Ugh.

As you can see, Romania suffers from the typical Eastern European problem of having way too many parties and not much in the way of "block politics". To help you make sense of the above piece of abstract art, I decided to put most of the parties in one of two "families", each named after their founding party: National Salvation Front and National Liberal Party. Note that these blocks don't really exist, I just came up with them to make this less of a mess.

THE‌ FRONT FAMILY — parties descended, in one way or another, from the elite that got into power after Ceaușescu's overthrow, including past iterations of PSD and their official or unofficial allies.

FSN | Frontul Salvării Naționale | National Salvation Front — a big-tent alliance of anti-Ceaușescu ("reformist" would be too strong a word) Communist forces, led by Ion Iliescu and Petre Roman.

FDSN‌ | Frontul Democrat al Salvării Nationale | Democratic National Salvation Front — an authoritarian split-off from FSN led by Iliescu.

MER‌ | Mișcarea Ecologistă din România | Romanian Ecologist Movement — a pseudo-green front for FSN (think Mexican PVEM).

PSM | Partidul Socialist al Muncii | Socialist Party of Labor — self-explanatory

PDSR / UN | Partidul Democrației Sociale in România / Polul Democrat-Social din România / Uniunea Națională PSD+PUR | Party of Social Democracy in Romania / Social Democratic Pole of Romania / National Union PSD+PUR — For all intents and purposes, the predecessors of today's PSD, either as a standalone party or a coalition with small satellite parties.

USL | Uniunea Social Liberală | Social Liberal Union — a short-lived alliance of PSD and PNL against PD-L and Traian Băsescu.

PSD‌ | Partidul Social Democrat | Social Democratic Party — the winner of 2016 elections, until recently Romania's governing criminal organization old Securitate boys' club "party"

ALDE | Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților | Alliance of Liberals and Democrats — No, no, no, we definitely aren't the people who helped get Dragnea into power and supported PSD until it became inconvenient...


THE‌‌ LIBERAL‌ FAMILY — Of course, "liberal" here is the opposite of "authoritarian" more than anything else Westerners will imagine associated with liberalism — indeed, these parties are mostly conservative.

PNL | Partidul National Liberal | National Liberal Party — a continuation of the interwar party of the same name, excluding the Băsescu era the main opposition to the Front family, pretty much standard conservatives. Party of current PM Ludovic Orban and President Klaus Iohannis.

PNȚCD | Partidul Național Țărănesc Creștin Democrat | Christian Democratic National Peasants' Party — essentially PNL for rural folks, at least in theory, in reality probably indistinguishable from them.

CDR | Convenţia Democrată Română | Romanian Democratic Convention — an alliance between PNL and PNȚCD to consolidate their forces against Iliescu.

USD / PD | Uniunea Social Democrata / Partidul Democrat | Social Democratic Union / Democratic Party — created from the democratic and pro-European rump of FSN, at first left-leaning under Roman, later swung hard to the populist right under Traian Băsescu, merged with PNL dissidents and became PD-L.

PD-L | Partidul Democrat-Liberal | Democratic Liberal Party — Băsescu's personal machine, after his departure merged into PNL.

DA | Alianţa Dreptate şi Adevăr | Justice and Truth Alliance — a coalition of PNL and PD-L against PSD that elected Băsescu to presidency in 2004.

ARD | Alianţa România Dreaptă | Right Romania Alliance — a front for PD-L + some satellite parties in the 2012 elections, created in an unsuccessful attempt to shield PD-L from Băsescu's unpopularity.

PMP | Partidul Mișcarea Populară | People's Movement Party — Băsescu's personal machine no. 2, created after his policies and deranged behavior infuriated not just the whole country but also PD-L.

USR | Uniunea Salvați România | Save Romania Union — an anti-corruption classical liberal party created out of Save Bucharest Union, a localist party. Together with Plus objectively the best most normal party in Romania, if only by the virtue of not swimming in bribes.
 

OTHER‌‌ PARTIES

RMDSZ (UDMR) | Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség | Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania — the beneficiaries of the votes of Hungarian minority since the revolution. Virtually always get somewhere between 5-7%. Christian democrats in theory, but really support whoever is more convenient and hands out more pork.

PRM | Partidul România Mare | Greater Romania Party
PUNR | Partidul Unităţii Naţionale a Românilor | Romanian National Unity Party
AUR | Alianța pentru Unitatea Românilor | Alliance for Romanian Unity
A trio of very similar far-right nationalist parties, of which PRM is best known for Gheroghe Funar, a Zhirinovsky-like lunatic at their helm who managed to get into second round in the 2000 presidential election. The parties are definitely politically closer to the Front family, but I decided to classify them separately because of their different histories (not descended from FSN).

PPDD | Partidul Poporului Dan Diaconescu | People's Party Dan Diaconescu — a nationalist and vaguely lefty populist party that did well in 2012 and promptly disappeared once Dear Leader got bored with politics.

Minorities — Romanian Constitution guarantees a variable number of seats (currently 17) in the Chamber of Deputies to ethnic minority parties. The only one of those parties relevant outside these seats is Klaus Iohannis' former party FDGR (Democratic Forum of Germans in Romania).

Others — some small parties that won seats in 1990 and 1992, when there wasn't a 5% threshold.
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Estrella
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,011
Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas)


« Reply #5 on: April 01, 2020, 06:28:25 PM »

Aaand here go the blocks!


There's a pretty interesting pattern here that has repeated three times so far:
1) a huge landslide victory for Front (1990, 2000, 2012)
2) a smaller Front victory with stronger liberal opposition (1992, 2004*, 2016)
3) Liberal victory and quick descent into unpopularity due to economic factors (1996, 2008, 2020?)

Note that the 1990, 1992, 1996, 2000 and 2004 elections were for both the executive presidency and legislature. Since then, Romania has had a parliamentary system and the elections went out of sync.

* Yes, Băsescu won the presidency, but I'm focusing on the legislature only, which might be a bit disingenuous tbh.


And one last thing — Romania's parliament is as megalomaniacally oversized as its building.

The huge spike in 2012 is because USL's landslide victory (59%, 42-point lead) caused a lot of what in saner systems would be called overhang mandates to keep the proportionality (actually, it was more complicated, but I don't pretend to understand it).




what do you think, RGM? is this analysis and stuff anywhere close to reality because i got most of this from wikipedia lol

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Estrella
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,011
Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas)


« Reply #6 on: April 02, 2020, 01:06:25 PM »

Well, that is some good work. It is pretty accurate, even through I have some different views on how to  best split the parties into blocks. Also, if you ever need some more nuanced-than-wikipedia information on Romania, feel free to PM me. I have a lot of free time now because of the national lockdown.

Thank you! Purple heart

I'd be interested to know how would you split the parties into blocks. No other questions come to mind right now, but if there's something you want to know about Slovakia or Hungary, you can feel free to PM me too (:
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Estrella
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Posts: 2,011
Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas)


« Reply #7 on: November 20, 2020, 07:29:27 PM »

Who even votes for PMP at this point? What would make someone choose them instead of PNL?
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Estrella
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,011
Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas)


« Reply #8 on: December 08, 2020, 05:33:07 PM »

The relationship between Fidesz and PNL is not that bad - PNL and UDMR have a history of working together and are part of the same political family (even through UDMR would work with literally anyone, the two parties seem to get along better) and PNL has generally avoided promoting extreme nationalist rhetoric like PSD did (through there were some exceptions, a statement by Iohannis accusing Hungarians of wanting to steal Transylvania stands out). So no notable conflict between the two, and PNL-UDMR coalitions are common at a local level in the North East. Also Hungarians who live in Romania despise PSD and like PNL so that is a factor too

While Hungarian population has always despised PSD* (more so than UDMR politicians), they voted for them on occassion when they were seen as lesser evil. The most obvious example of this is the runoff of the 2000 presidential election between Iliescu and an even more psychopathic version of Ceaușescu Vadim. Harghita, the county with the largest Hungarian majority, gave Iliescu something like 7% in the first round and 90% in the second round.

* after all, the flashpoint of the Revolution was the arrest of a Hungarian priest
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Estrella
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,011
Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas)


« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2021, 12:24:51 PM »

Apparently Ciolacu's decision to strike a deal with Iohannis has been...quite unpopular amongst the PSDers in the country as well as some central figures of the party, and he now had to impose an arbitrary time limit until February 2022 for PSD supporting a minority government. I am not sure he can walk back on this, especially given Dragnea waiting in the wings. So 2922 will be once again a fun year in Romania. 

USL revival is a done deal then? Huh, I would have expected PSD to at least let Iohannis squirm for longer.

Obviously a single poll is next to worthless, but does the eye-popping one with the Orban-wing-PNL at 11.5% and Cîțu-wing-PNL at 3% have any basis in the situation on the ground in your opinion?
Yeah. Even as leaders continue to hedge thinking everyone is stupid, social liberal values are already being spread across the government, for example at the Consumer Protection agency, where the son of a PSD baron got appointed in a key position, or at the Equality between Genders agency, where by pure coincidence, of course, the husband of an influent PSD MP is set to take over a very well-paid position.

I don't think PNL-Citu would get 3%, because even if only their party members and voters easy to moblize in the rural areas by their mayors voted, they would be over 5%. But there are very few people still supporting PNL on their own initiative, without standing to gain something from it. This is anectodal, but my grandparents who live in a (former) PNL stronghold in Translyvania and voted for PNL at every election since PDL died are now calling Iohannis "that f- powerhungry idiot". If the election was today, I think both PNLs would get 6-8% each.

I'd just like to say I love the huge contrast between how "wow nice progressive FF Smiley Smiley" this sounds at first sight and what it actually means. Not that this is the only case of that:

Quote
The Conservative Party was founded as the Romanian Humanist Party (PUR) on 18 December 1991 and was for a time a member of the Humanist International. [...] The party was founded by former well known Securitate collaborator and informer Dan Voiculescu, a post-1989 wealthy businessman who formally gave control of his companies to relatives.

Quote
The Humanist Power Party (Social-Liberal) is a centre-left [citation needed] political party in Romania. It was founded in 2015 by members of the Conservative Party (PC) [...] In 2018, former Sector 4 mayor, Cristian Popescu Piedone join PPU and reentered politics, having previously been prosecuted for the Colectiv nightclub fire back in 2015. He was accounted responsible and in 2019 sentenced to 8 years in prison, but the sentence was not decisive and was attacked by the Bucharest Court of Appeal. With all the legal problems and controversy surrounding Piedone, PPU still endorsed him as candidate in the 2016 Romanian local elections for mayor of Sector 4 as well as in the 2020 Romanian local elections for mayor of Sector 5, winning the latter.
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Estrella
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,011
Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas)


« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2023, 05:07:00 PM »

I've just found Armando Ianucci's amazing sequel to The Death of Stalin.




Seriously though, I know the Revolution was in many ways tragic, but this display of emotional speeches, furious improvisation, utter chaos, explosion of decades of pent-up anger, passionate and/or panicked shouting, spontaneous mobilization to fight for freedom and/or opportunistically seize power (Iliescu at 44min is already acting like he owns the place), fights almost breaking out, all on live TV... it's just 10/10. Even if I couldn't understand anything Cheesy

(or almost anything. It helps that I speak a Romance language, a Slavic language and Hungarian and Romanian is basically a mix of all three. Like 90% went over my head, but I did catch some words and sometimes I had a lightbulb moment when I realized I understood a wonderful bastard Romance-Slavic or Romance-Hungarian phrase like locul de muncă or tota apa e otrăvită)
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Estrella
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,011
Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas)


« Reply #11 on: February 27, 2024, 12:51:06 PM »

Can you tell us more about the national minority representatives in Parliament? Have they ever been involved in "regular" politicking and done something that wouldn't have happened without them, like helped pass a law or give confidence to a cabinet or something like that? Also, would I be right to guess that eternal leader Varujan Pambuccian is turbo-cartoon-villain-corrupt even by Romanian standards?
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