Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)

[Mike88]

Overseas voting is very center-right leaning, right? If Iohannis get 47-48% in Romania alone, the overseas voting could make him cross 50%, perhaps.

[Mike88]

Overseas voting is very center-right leaning, right? If Iohannis get 47-48% in Romania alone, the overseas voting could make him cross 50%, perhaps.

Yes, but as I said earlier, that won't do anything for him, as he needs to get 50% of the entire population's votes in order for the second round to be avoided, not just 50% of the votes. Anyway, the overseas votes could be leaning for Barna rather than Iohannis, which would help him surpass Dancila and get in the second round, so they are still very important

Ah, ok. That's a weird rule, but anyway. If PSD doesn't get into the second round, the sinking will further continue. The 2020 general elections could be a survival test for PSD.

[Mike88]

The second place seems to be at play, at least in the Romania TV poll. The other two exit polls are quite similar in predicting a PNL vs PSD run off.

[Mike88]

This is a bit humiliating for a 2 term former President of the Republic, who was also mayor of Bucharest, isn't it?

[Mike88]

This is a bit humiliating for a 2 term former President of the Republic, who was also mayor of Bucharest, isn't it?

Humiliating yes, surprising no. Getting into this race was a huge, huge mistake for the former President, as it was not only a humiliation but also caused PMP to be isolated from the other right wing parties with which it could have allied with after the Parliamentary.

Yeah, just saw polling and he never had a chance and could have hurted even more the center-right coalition. Though, it seems the PSD is very likely to lose Bucharest.

[Mike88]

Just a question: You also vote for 3 different offices, right?

[Mike88]

Just a question: You also vote for 3 different offices, right?

Yes, we vote for: Mayor, Local Council, County Council and County Council President. In Bucharest they are different: Mayor, Local Council, District Mayor, District Council.

Interesting. Just asked because here in Portugal, we also vote for 3 different offices on local elections: Municipal Council (Mayor), Municipal Assembly and Parish Assembly.

Do you know any good results websites?

[Mike88]

Do you have the results from Constanta and Craiova? And the national results, share and mayors won?

[Mike88]

Do you have the results from Constanta and Craiova? And the national results, share and mayors won?

I have the results on mayors. Please keep in mind this is not a predictive indicator of the strength of the parties - as villages and towns are in no way equal and also the vote is often highly personalized rather than political. Anyway -

PSD - 1438 Mayors (-270 from 2016)
PNL - 1237 (+156)
UDMR - 199 (+3)
PMP - 50 (+32)
USR - 45 (+45)
ProRomania - 35 (+35)
ALDE - 15 (-49)

These numbers may suffer very slight changes.

Română wikipedia has this vote share by party:

29.8% PNL
23.2% PSD
  8.9% USR+PLUS
  6.0% PMP
  4.9% UDMR
  4.7% PRO
  2.9% ALDE
19.6% Others

PSD dominates and still has a lot of support in rural areas, right? While urban and suburban areas are more PNL or USR+PLUS?

[Mike88]

Latest poll:

31.3% PNL
22.0% PSD
17.0% USR+PLUS
  9.3% PRO+ADLE
  5.4% UDMR
  4.8% PMP
10.2% Others

It seems that PNL and USR are condemned to get along. PNL+PRO+ADLE doesn't seem enough to have a majority. The relations between PNL and USR haven't improved, right?.

[Mike88]

Latest poll:

31.3% PNL
22.0% PSD
17.0% USR+PLUS
  9.3% PRO+ADLE
  5.4% UDMR
  4.8% PMP
10.2% Others

It seems that PNL and USR are condemned to get along. PNL+PRO+ADLE doesn't seem enough to have a majority. The relations between PNL and USR haven't improved, right?.

This is a poll made public by Victor Ponta, the leader of PRO-ALDE. However, he did not bother to state who conducted this poll, it could as well be made up.

Anyway, PNL-PRO-ALDE was not a coalition option, as PRO-ALDE is a group former by ex-PSDers with similar views as their former party. PNL-UDMR-PMP was the only other option, excluding PNL-USR.

Oh right, wasn't aware of that. It's more an internal polling that an actual poll, and it could, like you said, made up. Is any more polling expected during the week, or is there some kind of polling ban?

[Mike88]

Latest poll:

31.3% PNL
22.0% PSD
17.0% USR+PLUS
  9.3% PRO+ADLE
  5.4% UDMR
  4.8% PMP
10.2% Others

It seems that PNL and USR are condemned to get along. PNL+PRO+ADLE doesn't seem enough to have a majority. The relations between PNL and USR haven't improved, right?.

This is a poll made public by Victor Ponta, the leader of PRO-ALDE. However, he did not bother to state who conducted this poll, it could as well be made up.

Anyway, PNL-PRO-ALDE was not a coalition option, as PRO-ALDE is a group former by ex-PSDers with similar views as their former party. PNL-UDMR-PMP was the only other option, excluding PNL-USR.

Oh right, wasn't aware of that. It's more an internal polling that an actual poll, and it could, like you said, made up. Is any more polling expected during the week, or is there some kind of polling ban?

I would say that some polls will come out during the final week, I am particularly waiting for the IMAS monthly poll, but the lack of polls during this campaign has been surprising and it probably reflects a lack of interest for this campaign, despite it being the only one which actually matters.

The pandemic may had an impact also, IMO, as people don't seem to much engaged in politics as so many things in our personal lives are upside during this period. Do you expect turnout to be low?

[Mike88]

I'm curious about that, the semi-presidential system in Romania is more a Presidential one or a parliamentary one? Normally in EU summits, it's the President that appears rather than the PM, right? Is there political will to change the system to a presidential one, like France?

I ask this, because I read many times the comparation between the Portuguese, French and Romanian semi-presidentialism, and it always seems to me, at least, that the Portuguese one is quite different from the French and Romanian, as the latter ones have much more power in the President than Portugal. The President in Portugal has no executive or legislative powers at all.

[Mike88]

I'm curious about that, the semi-presidential system in Romania is more a Presidential one or a parliamentary one? Normally in EU summits, it's the President that appears rather than the PM, right? Is there political will to change the system to a presidential one, like France?

I ask this, because I read many times the compilation between the Portuguese, French and Romanian semi-presidentialism, and it always seems to me, at least, that the Portuguese one is quite different from the French and Romanian, as the latter ones have much more power in the President than Portugal. The President in Portugal has no executive or legislative powers at all.

It is a defects parliamentary system. The President only has very few powers, and most of those are ceremonial or inconsequential. The biggest difference from a country like Germany for example is that the President is elected by the people in extremely emotionally-charged elections. Thus, he is also a politician with a popular mandate and not just a figurehead, which prevents him from being totally ignored by the government or Parliament.

Interesting, so it's basically very similar with my country. But, he has a voice in foreign affairs, right?

[Mike88]

IMAS poll:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1334080812413816832

[Mike88]

Some other polls (most of the polling firms conducting these do not have great track records, but surprises can happen) -

IRSOP - PNL 33%, PSD 30%, USR 17%, PRO-ALDE 7%, UDMR 5%, PMP 3%

SOCIOPOL - PNL 29%, PSD 28%, USR 13%, AUR 7% (huh?), UDMR 6%, PRO-ALDE 6%, PMP 3%

PNL internal - PNL 35%, PSD 30%, USR 17%, PRO-ALDE 6%, UDMR 6%, PMP 5%

PMP internal - PSD 31%, PNL 28%, USR 21%, UDMR 6%, PMP 6%, PRO-ALDE 5%

Verifield - PNL 31%, PSD 22%, USR 17%, PRO-ALDE 9%, UDMR 5%, PMP 5%

So, as you can see, a broad range of outcomes is possible, but ultimately the government will probably be PNL-USR with the potential addition of PMP or UDMR if needed.

Yikes, just to think that a few months ago this was a forgone conclusion, PNL landslide, and now there's the possibility, low still, of PSD pulling ahead of PNL. Nonetheless, a center-right government is the most likely outcome.

PS: Weird I'm rooting for a PSD defeat, when I support the PSD in my country

[Mike88]

New poll out from a PSD-friendly firm named IRES - PSD 35%, PNL 32%, USR 16%, PRO-ALDE 7%, PMP 3%, UDMR 3%, AUR 3%

They were quite spot on in 2016, however.

[Mike88]

Not very good with predictions, but low turnout seems to benefit the PSD, right? And, because of the circumstances of this race, turnout will likely be very low, 35-40%, so here's my take:

34.1% PSD
29.0% PNL
17.7% USR+PLUS
  6.2% PRO+ALDE
  4.0% PMP
  3.9% AUR
  3.5% UDMR
  1.6% Others

36.7% Turnout

[Mike88]

While the vote process will begin in Romania tomorrow at 7 AM, almost 64k people have already voted abroad, and the number continues to climb minute by minute. However, in a classic 2020 problem, of 39k mail-in ballots, only 21k got to Bucharest in due time. Now no one knows what to do about the rest of them, who were received by the authorities after the deadline and had to be invalidated. There is a lot of anger on social media and within the communities abroad about these thousands of ballots, and the best the authorities could apparently do is to tell those people with invalidated ballots to try and vote in person (polling stations are probably hundreds of miles away is they chose to go through the complicated procedures required to vote absentee). Oof.

Not surprising, at least for me. Here in Portugal, the last general election was chaos in the overseas mail voting. The envelopes were too small to fit the ballots, voters didn't understand what to sent to prove the ballot was valid and many voters only received the ballots months after the elections, the most outrageous situations were in South Africa and Venezuela. And, in next January presidential elections, overseas voters are forbidden to vote by mail because the Constitution says that the election of the President must be by in person voting.

Now, going back to Romania, overseas voters can vote today and tomorrow, right?

[Mike88]

While the vote process will begin in Romania tomorrow at 7 AM, almost 64k people have already voted abroad, and the number continues to climb minute by minute. However, in a classic 2020 problem, of 39k mail-in ballots, only 21k got to Bucharest in due time. Now no one knows what to do about the rest of them, who were received by the authorities after the deadline and had to be invalidated. There is a lot of anger on social media and within the communities abroad about these thousands of ballots, and the best the authorities could apparently do is to tell those people with invalidated ballots to try and vote in person (polling stations are probably hundreds of miles away is they chose to go through the complicated procedures required to vote absentee). Oof.

Not surprising, at least for me. Here in Portugal, the last general election was chaos in the overseas mail voting. The envelopes were too small to fit the ballots, voters didn't understand what to sent to prove the ballot was valid and many voters only received the ballots months after the elections, the most outrageous situations were in South Africa and Venezuela. And, in next January presidential elections, overseas voters are forbidden to vote by mail because the Constitution says that the election of the President must be by in person voting.

Now, going back to Romania, overseas voters can vote today and tomorrow, right?

Yes.

The more than 900,000 overseas ballots in the 2020 Presidential election will not be reached this time around, right? The number will be much lower.

[Mike88]

The more than 900,000 overseas ballots in the 2020 Presidential election will not be reached this time around, right? The number will be much lower.

No, it will certainly not be reached. The first day is almost over in most places and it did not even reach 100.000. (Even as in the last day more people vote, 900.000 is still impossible)

Hmm, that doesn't bode well for the PNL. Also, typo error, I meant to say the 2019 Presidential election, not 2020.

[Mike88]

Very low turnout at 13pm: 13.85%.

Turnout in Bucharest is higher than the national average: 19.61%. And it seems that urban turnout is a bit higher than the rural turnout.

[Mike88]

Adevarul.ro, a rather reputable news source, has published leaked exit poll results up until 2 PM, but I am not sure how reliable they are - PNL 32%, PSD 29%, USR 17%, PRO 6%, AUR 6%, UDMR 5%, PMP 3%. Again, these might not be real and they are bound to change until the voting process stops anyway.

Is there penalties for those who leak exit polls before polls close?

[Mike88]

It seems that the final turnout will be around 32-33%.

[Mike88]

It seems that the final turnout will be around 32-33%.

The lowest in history...Sad!

This is almost EU Parliament turnout levels. I predicted around 36%, but this bellow my expectations.