Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)

[RGM2609]

Since his second term began and especially since the pandemic ended, Klaus Iohannis has seldom made public statements and has often traveled abroad on diplomatic tours of questionable value for the country but certainly of great expense. Only the costs of the airplanes, always luxurious and rented from private companies, have been 25 million euros in just the first six months of the year. So have the journalists calculated because the Presidency has said its expenses were state secrets and refused to publish them. Anyway, Iohannis is now on a tour of Africa, going on safaris and all that. Here is part of a welcoming ceremony in Zanzibar (trust me, click):

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ISwxOZVM50g

[Sadader]

The PNL Minister of Finance has been throwing criticism at the Government over the pension bill that the Chamber of Deputies just passed. This would add quite a bit of spending over the medium term (0.6% of GDP 2023, 1.6-1.8% thereafter) so will bring the deficit to an insane 5.9% in 2024 and ~6.8% in 2025, and that's after the recent tax hikes and the fact that revenues this year have massively disappointed (6.3% deficit 2023.)

The EU has Romania in the Excessive Deficit Procedure (deficit must remain < 3.0%) so the scale of this deterioration is quite bad, given there's no way we get the coalition raising taxes ahead of the elections, so that 2024 number is baked in and the 2025 figure is the problem of the next Government (I don't even think PSD/PNL holds)

[RGM2609]

The PNL Minister of Finance has been throwing criticism at the Government over the pension bill that the Chamber of Deputies just passed. This would add quite a bit of spending over the medium term (0.6% of GDP 2023, 1.6-1.8% thereafter) so will bring the deficit to an insane 5.9% in 2024 and ~6.8% in 2025, and that's after the recent tax hikes and the fact that revenues this year have massively disappointed (6.3% deficit 2023.)

The EU has Romania in the Excessive Deficit Procedure (deficit must remain < 3.0%) so the scale of this deterioration is quite bad, given there's no way we get the coalition raising taxes ahead of the elections, so that 2024 number is baked in and the 2025 figure is the problem of the next Government (I don't even think PSD/PNL holds)

The pension bill is evidently an electoral handout, designed in order to goad retirees into supporting Ciolacu's presidential candidacy. Quite a lot of PNLers were vehemently opposed to the proposal, but after a day of circus, when Ciolacu allegedly locked himself in his office and refused to leave before the Finance Minister gave his stamp of approval, Iohannis and his underlings forced other members to vote in favor. Even so, Bolos, the PNL Finance Minister, has frequently contradicted Ciolacu in public and it is likely his days in office are numbered.

[Mike88]

The PNL Minister of Finance has been throwing criticism at the Government over the pension bill that the Chamber of Deputies just passed. This would add quite a bit of spending over the medium term (0.6% of GDP 2023, 1.6-1.8% thereafter) so will bring the deficit to an insane 5.9% in 2024 and ~6.8% in 2025, and that's after the recent tax hikes and the fact that revenues this year have massively disappointed (6.3% deficit 2023.)

The EU has Romania in the Excessive Deficit Procedure (deficit must remain < 3.0%) so the scale of this deterioration is quite bad, given there's no way we get the coalition raising taxes ahead of the elections, so that 2024 number is baked in and the 2025 figure is the problem of the next Government (I don't even think PSD/PNL holds)

The pension bill is evidently an electoral handout, designed in order to goad retirees into supporting Ciolacu's presidential candidacy. Quite a lot of PNLers were vehemently opposed to the proposal, but after a day of circus, when Ciolacu allegedly locked himself in his office and refused to leave before the Finance Minister gave his stamp of approval, Iohannis and his underlings forced other members to vote in favor. Even so, Bolos, the PNL Finance Minister, has frequently contradicted Ciolacu in public and it is likely his days in office are numbered.

You're kidding, right? That's just, wow.

[RGM2609]

In other news, there is soon going to be an announcement from the current Deputy Secretary General of NATO Mircea Geoana, who seems to be hellbent on running again for the presidency. Just the other day he posted a video on his Facebook page deploring the tough life of many Romanians and promising to soon come forward with a plan for their problems. Doesn't sound campaigny to me, folks! He is also going to release a book filled with platitudes, probably learning a thing from Klaus Iohannis, who for years now has been Romania's most-read writer with his three books of that sort. Romanian gamblers seem to be in love with Geoana's prospective campaign, as he is now the far and-away favorite.

I can only imagine the economic crisis that will be caused by all of these idiots losing their lifetime savings following the first round results lol.

[RGM2609]

1. Following the whole Lasconi saga from just a month ago, yet another calamity has struck Romania's biggest joke party, USR. DNA, under brand new leadership from a guy whose sole qualification seems to be washing up Ciuca's plagiarism charges, has asked Parliament to remove the immunity of the former Ministers of Health from USR, Vlad Voiculescu (now a candidate for the European Parliament) and Ioana Mihaila (now a member of Ciolos's REPER), as well as that of the failed former Prime Minister Florin Citu (now barking on all news channels against PNL's alliance with PSD). They have been indicted for abuse of office in a case related to the COVID-19 vaccine purchases, namely for buying way too many and thus causing prejudice to the Romanian budget. It is a pretty dumb case, and I say this as someone who would throw a rager party the day Citu was sent to prison. I also feel that Voiculescu and Mihaila should be arrested just for gross incompetence. But what was even more pathetic was the response of the USR leadership. Drula had a crazy, Dragnea-like speech, accusing the secret services of manufacturing indictments against USR leaders. And said he won't drop Voiculescu from the list, despite getting rid of Lasconi for what was, in comparison, a nothingburger.

2. A poll from Mercury Research:
PSD - 28%
AUR - 19%
PNL - 16%
USR - 15%
SOS - 7%

[RGM2609]

Just some run-of-the-mill parliamentary madness, with Simion and Sosoaca nearly beating each other up in the permanent fight to outdo each other, while the Parliament was supposed to debate the deeply delusional and electoral budget for next year:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODv311HhiFs

[Mike88]

This "chaos" during Parliamentary debates in Romania are quite usual, aren't they? The funny thing is that the fight is between to far-right party members.

[RGM2609]

This "chaos" during Parliamentary debates in Romania are quite usual, aren't they? The funny thing is that the fight is between to far-right party members.

Yeah, though it was a remarkably peaceful and solemn place before 2016 when USR entered Parliament and used various methods to protest during the Dragnea years, and especially since 2020. AUR and ex-AUR members regularly cause fights like the one shown above, which are often live-streamed on their Facebook pages to the joy of thousands of adoring fans. And yeah, Simion and Sosoaca have a reason to fight. SOS Romania entering Parliament depends on a decline or at least a stagnation of AUR, while Sosoaca's likely candidacy might rob Simion of his place in the second round of the presidential election.

[DavidB.]

AUR also announced its candidates a while back, most of them unknowns for International leaders, but I will probably do a brief introduction for them in the following days

I'd still be interested in your description of AUR's candidates.

[RGM2609]

AUR also announced its candidates a while back, most of them unknowns for International leaders, but I will probably do a brief introduction for them in the following days

I'd still be interested in your description of AUR's candidates.

It's been a quiet day at work, so you're in luck:

Certain to make it to Brussels
1. Claudiu Tarziu - The co-founder and former co-president of AUR, together with George Simion. He seems to have had more of an organizational role, leaving Simion to bask in the spotlight, and this candidacy seems to have been the price for dropping his leadership role within the party. Before he founded AUR, he was a journalist and writer, extremely active in "Religious Right" circles. I won't delight you with some of the things he had to say about homosexuals, but I will note that he characterized Corneliu Zelea Codreanu, the leader of the fascist Iron Guard as "charismatic, incorruptible, an idealist".

2. Mugur Mihaescu - A very well-known actor, he was the star of some of the most successful comedy productions after the Revolution. For the last decade or so, his main source of income however has come from owning a pub. He was an active collaborator of the Securitate, the communist secret police, a period in which he turned in numerous people to whom he posed as a dissident. He joined 3 parties before AUR, but never gained much traction. Alas, his moment came together with the pandemic, during which he took a hardline COVID-denying, anti-vaccine stance. This gained the sympathy of many AUR fans, and now here we are.

3. Georgiana Teodorescu - A lawyer and university professor, she seems to have emerged out of thin air, only joining AUR in May of this year. Has since been a constant presence on TV stations. There is still a general confusion about who she is and how she ended up third on the list. There are rumors of ties with some pretty crooked politicians from the old guard, but nothing quite clear as of yet.

4. Ramona Bruynseel - Has some 10 years of experience in banking before entering politics in 2017 when she served as an advisor to PSD Prime Ministers Tudose and Dancila. Who promoted her? It all became obvious when in 2019, she left the government and became the presidential candidate of PPUSL, the party controlled by "Professor" Dan Voiculescu. Running a not-so-subtle "I'm an actual smart and modern blonde woman, not like Dancila" campaign, she got a score which shocked me (2.5%). Her presence on the AUR list might be correlated with Antena 3 "CNN", the TV cesspool owned by Voiculescu, suddenly reevaluating Simion from "a Russian asset" to "a great patriot".

Will make it unless AUR crashes

5. Avram Fitiu - Another college professor, is a former member of Basescu's PMP and was nominated by them to be State Secretary in the Orban Government. Ran for Parliament from them in 2020, but reorientated towards AUR after PMP missed the threshold. Before that, he also used to be a member of Ciolos's PLUS but got kicked out. His preferred subject is agriculture, and he often used populist rhetoric in support of the Romanian farmers.

6. Radu Baltasiu - And...yet another previously unknown college professor, and also a sociologist. I couldn't even find more than 3 public statements he made in the past 5 years. He occupied various lower-rank positions in PSD governments. He truly seems to have come out of nowhere. At least AUR is trying to put forward intellectuals I guess?

Will make it if polling is accurate

7. Peter Costea - A socially conservative lawyer and Baptist pastor, he lives in the United States. His main area of interest seems to be anti-LGBT lobbying. He formed a civic organization that pressured Parliament into inserting "marriage is between a man and a woman" into law and he was also behind the failed 2018 referendum to introduce the same text into the Constitution. He ran as an independent candidate for the European Parliament in 2014 (0.7%) and 2019 (1.4%, a few thousand more votes than Simion himself).

8. Christian Terhes - He is also a priest, as well as an incumbent MEP. He was elected on the PSD list in 2019 but was never a member and either way quickly dissociated himself from the party. He spent his tenure focusing on dumb culture wars, such as how the EU will force us to eat crickets and how transexual women are "perverted men". Was also heavily courted to run for Russophile Senator Diana Sosoaca's new party, but he seems to have gone with the safer choice.

Will make it if AUR overperforms

9. Gheorghe Piperea - A lawyer and law professor, however, I am not sure he found the time needed for either one of those since he spent the last 5 years non-stop on TV news cesspools, promoting nationalist conspiracy theories. PSD also gave him a cushy state sinecure even after he declared his affiliation with AUR, hmm. But I think what describes him best is the following rant he posted on Facebook: "Is it possible that the temperature in the shade is 7 or even 11 degrees lower than in the sun? In the summer months I, for example, have never found it cooler in the shade, only less exposed to sunstroke and "tanning"".

10. Dimitrie Sturdza - This is by far the weirdest one: Dimitrie Sturdza is actually a Prince, being the direct descendant of Mihail Sturdza, who ruled over Moldova at the time of the 1848 revolution. He spent almost his entire life filing lawsuits against the Romanian state to get back the properties his family used to own, as well as giving speeches to anyone who'd listen calling the EU a dictatorship. His place on the AUR list certainly has nothing to do with the tens of thousands of euros he donated to the party.

These are all the candidates we know about as of right now. Probably the rest of the seats will mostly be filled by AUR county organizations, but I think anything past 10 seats for them is unlikely, especially given the strong competition from Sosoaca's SOS Romania.

TLDR: A weird mix of conservative culture warriors and randos that came forward from the depths of the Deep State, with 1 or 2 oddballs in between.

[DavidB.]

Thank you very much for this write-up.

[RGM2609]

Thank you very much for this write-up.

Any time!

[RGM2609]

Alas, we now have our first poll for 2024! Unfortunately, it is a PNL internal, but there will be a shortage of reliable polls throughout this very interesting year, by the end of which Romania will have had Europarliamentary, local, presidential, and parliamentary elections. Here are its results:

PSD - 30%
PNL - 20%
AUR - 18%
USR - 14% (+PMP&FD = 18%)
SOS - 6%
UDMR - 5%

In other news, there is a lot of talk about which elections will be held simultaneously. The classical solution, to host the parliamentary and first round of the presidential elections on the same day, seems to be disregarded by the coalition government. PNL is forcefully pushing for the local elections to be held on the same day with something, anything, as their local apparatus is currently their last hope, but it might not come through as much if there isn't something at stake for itself. PSD on the other hand wants the Parliamentary and second round of the Presidential election to be on the same day, as they are certain they'll have a candidate in it, and thus get a boost. A compromise may be reached in favor of either the traditional solution above or some other option.

[RGM2609]

All major polling institutes have released polls showing the state of the race at the start of the 2024 electoral cycle. This year Romania will have all 4 types of elections: europarliamentary, local, parliamentary and presidential.

INSCOP poll:
PSD - 30
PNL - 19
AUR - 18
USR-PMP-FD - 13
SOS - 7
UDMR - 5
PER-PV - 3
PRO - 3

Avangarde poll:
PSD - 31
PNL - 21
AUR - 19
USR-PMP-FD - 14
SOS - 8
UDMR - 5

CURS poll:
PSD - 30
AUR - 21
PNL - 19
USR-PMP-FD - 14
UDMR - 5
SOS - 4

SOCIOPOL poll:
PSD - 29
AUR - 23
PNL - 17
USR-PMP-FD - 13
UDMR - 5
SOS - 3

Honestly, I am not even sure if I will vote next year. USR is increasingly a joke (just today they blocked one of their 2 last MEPs from entering a party meeting because he criticized Drula, he'll depart the party, maybe together with reneged former lead candidate Elena Lasconi), REPER is too lefty for my taste and everyone else is just unthinkable. But we'll see.

[RGM2609]

Now that Romania's inflation is the highest in the European Union and higher than Russia's, a globally sanctioned country, you'd think the USL government would be working around the clock to fix the problem, largely of their own making. Haha, think again.

The chief concern of our nation's great leaders has been which elections to merge to favor their parties more. PNL has been begging, begging, PSD to hold the local and euro parliamentary elections on the same day, but PSD has been asking for a high price. Why PNL would demand that is pretty obvious: they have over 40% of the Mayors in Romania and probably 15-17% when it comes to the political vote. Any results that would place PNL fourth would lead to an intra-party coup and Iohannis losing control. But PSD has been asking for a price: they want PNL to run in an alliance with them, a prospect PNL rejected last November under the pressure of their party apparatus, and they also want PNL to support Ciolacu's presidential candidacy. The latter point seems to have been put aside for now, but the parties have made progress toward joint candidacies. No announcement has been made yet, and it is still unclear if this will only be for the euro parliamentary or if there will be PSD-PNL candidates for the local elections as well. But it seems like there will be some form of USL 2.0 in 2024.

[RGM2609]

It's over. PSD and PNL will run together for the europarliamentary election. As far as the locals go, it seems like in the 95% of cities and villages where PSD or PNL have sitting mayors they'll run separately, while in the places where USR or its allies have mayors (including Bucharest at-large, 2 of its districts, Timisoara and Brasov) there will be joint candidacies to oust them. Both will be held on June 9th. It's still discussed whether the presidential election will be pulled back two months and take place in September while the parliamentary will still take place in December. Either way, it will be a profoundly weird and illogical electoral calendar. With the way things are going, I think it's more likely than not for PSD and PNL to back the same presidential candidate (Ciolacu).

[RGM2609]

The fact that local elections will be taking place on June 9th also means that the big race for the Bucharest Mayorship will start very soon. It already started now that Cristian Popescu Piedone, the incumbent Mayor of District 5, who is also at least partially responsible for the Colectiv nightclub fire and also an international embarrassment, has announced that he will be running from PPUSL, the ghost party controlled by "Professor" Dan Voiculescu. It is unlikely that the PSD-PNL alliance will back Piedone's candidacy (he still is unpopular nationwide despite some fans in Bucharest), but Piedone will take a lot of votes from the likely joint candidate. That candidate is likely to be affiliated with PNL or an independent as Ciolacu seems hellbent on not allowing Firea, his intraparty rival, to become the Bucharest Mayor again. Of course, all of this will do nothing but help Nicusor Dan, the incumbent Mayor whose popularity has seen a boost in the last year. Here is the first poll of the race:

Mayor
Nicusor Dan (USR-PMP-FD) - 36%
Gabriela Firea (PSD) - 33%
Cristian Popescu Piedone (PPUSL) - 10%
Sebastian Burduja (PNL) - 8%
Mihai Enache (AUR) - 8%
Diana Sosoaca (SOS) - 5%

City Council
PSD - 34%
USR-PMP-FD - 23%
PNL - 16%
AUR - 13%
SOS - 6%
PPUSL - 5%

So far the only big unknown is who the PSD-PNL alliance will back. It is unclear if Piedone's candidacy is just another attempt by the "Professor" to extract more concessions from PSD (Ciolacu has been notably more reluctant than his predecessors to give Voiculescu key positions on electoral lists, to the point that now Antena 3 "CNN" is openly calling for Geoana to get up the white horse and save the motherland) or an actual attempt at being elected, perhaps in some agreement with AUR.

[Estrella]

Can you tell us more about the national minority representatives in Parliament? Have they ever been involved in "regular" politicking and done something that wouldn't have happened without them, like helped pass a law or give confidence to a cabinet or something like that? Also, would I be right to guess that eternal leader Varujan Pambuccian is turbo-cartoon-villain-corrupt even by Romanian standards?

[RGM2609]

Can you tell us more about the national minority representatives in Parliament? Have they ever been involved in "regular" politicking and done something that wouldn't have happened without them, like helped pass a law or give confidence to a cabinet or something like that? Also, would I be right to guess that eternal leader Varujan Pambuccian is turbo-cartoon-villain-corrupt even by Romanian standards?

Oh God, this is a subject that makes me mad. So Romania has a system in which anyone can register as running from a certain national minority organization and, should they get a few thousand votes, become an MP. Then, once they made it to Parliament, the government gives them a total of some 30 million euros a year to, supposedly, promote the culture of their said minority (spoiler alert: not). But it can also simply not give them the money, so now we have a hint as to why they are always so friendly to the sitting government. You'd also think these organizations represent actual minorities who live in Romania and vote for them, and certainly, they won't often be grifters with votes bought for them by the traditional parties (spoiler alert: not). So the mainstream parties carry both the sugar (the money) and the stick (the votes, easily blackmailable deputies).

I am sure that throughout history there have been more examples of their involvement in making a difference, but their big thrust to relevance was in 2016-2020. They gave the deciding votes in 2018 for Dragnea's judicial "reforms", i.e. the defanging of the anti-corruption institutions, which were, surprise surprise, largely upheld by the current coalition. They also nearly saved Viorica Dancila's flailing government in 2019 (it still fell by 5 votes) and then did a quick turnaround and were the ones who got the first Orban government in power, which then quickly reneged on previous promises to cut the money flowing in.

And yes, piece of sh**t that guy, though very good at keeping a low profile and being "friendly" with all the other parties. You can see why he's survived in this job for so long.

[RGM2609]

Romanian President Klaus Iohannis, who is also a candidate to be the next Secretary General of NATO, is building a 9 million euros mansion for himself, using money from Romania's public funds
https://spotmedia-ro.translate.goog/stiri/politica/palatul-imparatului-7-9-milioane-de-euro-din-bani-publici-pentru-confortul-familiei-iohannis?_x_tr_sl=ro&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=ro&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[RGM2609]

A flurry of polls has come out in recent days, showing the human trashcan and incumbent mayor of District 5, Cristian Popescu Piedone, also backed by the "professor" Dan Voiculescu and his media enterprise, winning the Bucharest Mayorship, defeating the incumbent backed by USR&co as well as just about anyone the PSD-PNL coalition could put up against him. The recent attempts by PSD to negotiate with Piedone and the "professor" seem to have faltered, as they demanded 4 eligible spots on the PSD-PNL list for the European Parliament, including one for Piedone's daughter.

The PSD-PNL cartel is in disarray. Nobody wants the controversial Firea as the candidate, other than herself, but she might be narcissistic enough to mount an independent effort. A candidacy by "flawless beautiful" Sebastian Burduja (PNL), whose daddy was involved in some of the greatest thefts in the 90s, would lead to mass defections among PSD's electorate. It looks like they'll probably nominate some non-factor "personality", with famous doctors, athletes, and businessmen being vetted as we speak. Nevertheless, many in PSD in particular seem willing to help Piedone behind the scenes.

[Mike88]

That PSD-PNL coalition is so weird and forced, IMO. But, it still leads by a wide margin in the polls, even though Klaus Iohannis ratings are totally under water.

[RGM2609]

That PSD-PNL coalition is so weird and forced, IMO. But, it still leads by a wide margin in the polls, even though Klaus Iohannis ratings are totally under water.

Well, PSD+PNL/PDL has since 2004 always gotten over 50% of the vote, sometimes even going as high as 80% or 90%. In that sense, getting something around 40% is a significant regression. What is propping them up is their opposition also being wildly unpopular, their total control over state institutions, and their strong local turnout machines (they have over 90% of mayors).

As to why this happened, it is fairly clear that PNL was terrified of their actual support being shown in an election. Which is to be expected when they pretty much did this:

PNL in 2020: "Hey folks, yeah I know we suck but at least we're not PSD! Vote for us and you'll be rid of them for good!"
Romanians: vote PNL
PNL in 2021: "Hey...remember when we said that we'll get rid of PSD if you vote for us? LOL WE LIED."

[Flyersfan232]

That PSD-PNL coalition is so weird and forced, IMO. But, it still leads by a wide margin in the polls, even though Klaus Iohannis ratings are totally under water.

i can see a dutch surprise happening here with aur.