Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)

[Mike88]

INSOMAR poll for the 2024 EP elections:

Vote share %: (compared with the 2019 election)

27% AUR (new)
25% PSD (+2)
15% PNL (-12)
  7% USR (-15)
  4% UDMR (-1)
  4% S.O.S.RO (new)
  3% PMP (-3)
  3% FD (new)
  2% PPU (new)
10% Others

Poll conducted between 28 and 31 August 2023. Polled 1,030 voters.

[Zinneke]

Will it be traditional PNL areas voting AUR? I always got the impression that places like the PSD/Dragnea heartlands were more vulnerable to pro-Russian New Right types..

[RGM2609]

INSOMAR poll for the 2024 EP elections:

Vote share %: (compared with the 2019 election)

27% AUR (new)
25% PSD (+2)
15% PNL (-12)
  7% USR (-15)
  4% UDMR (-1)
  4% S.O.S.RO (new)
  3% PMP (-3)
  3% FD (new)
  2% PPU (new)
10% Others

Poll conducted between 28 and 31 August 2023. Polled 1,030 voters.

This poll company is owned by Mr. Maricel Pacuraru, a very honest individual who just happens to be an ex-inmate and the owner of a news station which is basically the Romanian RT. The poll also shows Gabriela Firea, the Minister who had to resign after her ties with the horror care homes were revealed, as the politician people most approve of. One of its questions reads as follows: "Can a country both be in the EU and maintain its sovereignty?"

This one is headed for the trash.

[Mike88]

INSOMAR poll for the 2024 EP elections:

Vote share %: (compared with the 2019 election)

27% AUR (new)
25% PSD (+2)
15% PNL (-12)
  7% USR (-15)
  4% UDMR (-1)
  4% S.O.S.RO (new)
  3% PMP (-3)
  3% FD (new)
  2% PPU (new)
10% Others

Poll conducted between 28 and 31 August 2023. Polled 1,030 voters.

This poll company is owned by Mr. Maricel Pacuraru, a very honest individual who just happens to be an ex-inmate and the owner of a news station which is basically the Romanian RT. The poll also shows Gabriela Firea, the Minister who had to resign after her ties with the horror care homes were revealed, as the politician people most approve of. One of its questions reads as follows: "Can a country both be in the EU and maintain its sovereignty?"

This one is headed for the trash.

Ah, right. Was not aware of that. But, in your opinion, which party do you think is in the "pole position" for the 2024 EP elections?

[RGM2609]

INSOMAR poll for the 2024 EP elections:

Vote share %: (compared with the 2019 election)

27% AUR (new)
25% PSD (+2)
15% PNL (-12)
  7% USR (-15)
  4% UDMR (-1)
  4% S.O.S.RO (new)
  3% PMP (-3)
  3% FD (new)
  2% PPU (new)
10% Others

Poll conducted between 28 and 31 August 2023. Polled 1,030 voters.

This poll company is owned by Mr. Maricel Pacuraru, a very honest individual who just happens to be an ex-inmate and the owner of a news station which is basically the Romanian RT. The poll also shows Gabriela Firea, the Minister who had to resign after her ties with the horror care homes were revealed, as the politician people most approve of. One of its questions reads as follows: "Can a country both be in the EU and maintain its sovereignty?"

This one is headed for the trash.

Ah, right. Was not aware of that. But, in your opinion, which party do you think is in the "pole position" for the 2024 EP elections?

Hmm, if the election was today, probably PSD would win by 5-6%. But given how fast they're screwing things up, AUR might actually stand a chance by next June.

[RGM2609]

Will it be traditional PNL areas voting AUR? I always got the impression that places like the PSD/Dragnea heartlands were more vulnerable to pro-Russian New Right types..

Hmm, maybe some elder conservatives from Transylvania, probably fans of people like Rares Bogdan, may be inclined to switch from PNL to AUR. But the main sources of AUR support are:
1. Nationalist older voters who probably also voted for Vadim's PRM or Dragnea's PSD in the past
2. Anti-establishment younger voter of all stripes (from the typical conspiracist loon who never voted before to some poor student who may have voted for USR previously)
PNL's lost support mainly went to the large category of non-voters or (less so) to smaller parties like PMP or PNL-Orban.

[Beagle]

Thanks for the INSOMAR explanation, was about to ask since that poll made some noise down here too.

S.O.S. Romania seems to be, as per a cursory glance at their online presence, very much a one-woman-show (Șoșoacă), but what are the chief reasons it seems to be gaining popularity in those circles? Is it simply AUR not being radical enough for some people? Do S.O.S. even have any policy differences with AUR? Afaik, AUR also support irredentist claims.

[RGM2609]

Thanks for the INSOMAR explanation, was about to ask since that poll made some noise down here too.

S.O.S. Romania seems to be, as per a cursory glance at their online presence, very much a one-woman-show (Șoșoacă), but what are the chief reasons it seems to be gaining popularity in those circles? Is it simply AUR not being radical enough for some people? Do S.O.S. even have any policy differences with AUR? Afaik, AUR also support irredentist claims.

Yeah, SOS Romania is basically a Sosoaca personality cult, with other members being basically grifters, or irrelevant crazies, or irrelevant crazy grifters. I would say the only difference between SOS and AUR ideologically is that Sosoaca isn't even trying to hide being a Russian agent. The reason for their current popularity through is simply that Sosoaca is much better at playing a certain type of character (the patriot bringing justice), much louder and, in the eyes of her target voters, more charismatic than any of the AUR high brass. However, these 4% poll numbers generally come after the pollster specifies SOS=Sosoaca. That is because the party is still really unknown, most people still associate her with AUR, given that she's under a media blockade (except for Pacurariu's station) and hasn't done much to promote the party online for now. Maybe that will change until 2024.

[Beagle]

Thanks for the explanation. I understand that there are a lot of intangibles involved, but how would you place on the hysterical scale (pun intended) AUR, SOS, PNR and APP? Which is the most unhinged and which do you see as potential PSD governing partners?

Also: am I correct in presuming that REPER support does not even register in the polls and that's why they are nowhere to be found in recent surveys (maybe lumped in with the Others category)?

[RGM2609]

Thanks for the explanation. I understand that there are a lot of intangibles involved, but how would you place on the hysterical scale (pun intended) AUR, SOS, PNR and APP? Which is the most unhinged and which do you see as potential PSD governing partners?

Also: am I correct in presuming that REPER support does not even register in the polls and that's why they are nowhere to be found in recent surveys (maybe lumped in with the Others category)?

1. Explainer: APP collapsed after some weird intra-party squabbles and now Dragnea has a new party: Movement for a Sovereign Romania (MRS). We'll be using that for the purposes of this analysis.

So, AUR, MRS, PNR, and SOS: a true who is who of the crazies. MRS is probably the least unhinged of the bunch, which is part of the reason why it's not taking off: while ideologically similar to AUR and not that different from SOS, Dragnea is an uncharismatic dud. He works well behind the scenes, but he has no backstage now so to speak. His party is a one-man show, and so far at least, is a bust. AUR is full of these patriotards, but Simion at least tries to reign in the craziness from time to time in order to keep the party coalitionable. SOS is the most hysterical by far, as mentioned previously. PNR has been dead ever since Sosoaca formed her own party, but given that she is a former member and after a brief scroll, here is my tier list:

1. Crazy but boring: MRS
2. Fascists kept in check: AUR
3. Hysterical but dead: PNR
4. Fascists left unchecked: SOS

When it comes to a coalition with PSD, I'd say that given the bad blood between Dragnea and the current leadership, AUR is the only thinkable option. They are already working together, with PSD doing everything possible to boost them. Why? Because they hope they face Simion in the second round of the presidential election, a guarantee of a triumphant return to the Cotroceni Palace after 20 years. However, on the whole, I think PSD would prefer the continuation of the coalition with a small, neutralized, and defanged PNL post-2024, possibly adding the Hungarians back, if it makes it to a majority. It's the option that gives them more control and makes the US/EU happy.

2. REPER indeed has only negligible support, which once again proves that Ciolos is a bad politician. While they are in many ways the leftist progressive party that Atlas dreams of, they have been completely unable to draw any attention to themselves. The reasons would be, in no particular order: bland communication style, full media blockade, its leaders being almost all MEPs, Ciolos being virtually invisible, and many important PLUSers staying in USR. And most importantly, what was once known as the Barna wing, now fully controlling USR, decided it was time to get rid of the Ciolos crew at all costs: no alliance, no even informal cooperation. Their only chance at survival might be Ciolos running for President and the presidential being held on the same day as the parliamentary. So yeah, not looking good.

Sorry for the long post.

[RGM2609]

It is becoming increasingly clear lately that a lot of people in the leadership of PSD and PNL are negotiating an electoral alliance in 2024. They are planning to run joint lists for the Parliament and European Parliament as well as support one candidate for the Presidency and the mayorship of major cities.

The advantages seem to consist in securing the positions of the party leaders: if PNL does score 4th on the EP election or even 3rd, Ciuca and his puppetmaster Iohannis would be faced with a full-scale rebellion from the increasingly unhappy PNLers. Similarly, if PSD loses to AUR, the unity ensured by Ciolacu will crumble and the party will return to factional wars. Another advantage would be increasing the chance of ousting USR Mayors in big cities (Bucharest, Districts 1/2 of Bucharest, Timisoara, Brasov, etc.). The disadvantages would be that it would energize the voters of both AUR (the establishment is trying to cling on to power and sell us off!!!) and USR (PNL has betrayed us fully, f them!!!). It is also pretty much a given that the PNL-PSD Alliance will get less than the sum of PSD and PNL separately.

I will go into more detail as/if the alliance becomes a certain fact. Right now I view two main obstacles:

1. The presidential candidate. Both PSD and PNL will claim the Presidency. But the PNL leadership would have probably caved. If not for the second point.

2. The divisions within PNL. There is an increasingly large (and vocal) faction opposed to the Iohannis/Ciuca leadership and demanding distancing from PSD and exiting the Ciolacu Cabinet. An official alliance would bring those tensions out in a big way. 

[RGM2609]

Since there was earlier talk about the European election, USR has announced its leading candidates!
So:

- Their lead candidate will be Elena Lasconi, whom I don't think I've mentioned in the thread before. She is a former TV host on Romania's most-watched channel who quit her job to run for Mayor in a small town she moved into. She won in a landslide and has since been a highly popular and successful mayor (it also helps that, unlike USR Mayors in large cities, she isn't facing criminal groups committed to ousting them). Ms. Lasconi also doesn't speak in "corporate", unlike most of the USR leadership, and I think will be able to resonate with more categories of Romanians. She has been mentioned before as a possible presidential candidate.

- Number 2 on the list is the infamous at this point Dan Barna, ex-USR leader who has largely chosen to stay behind the scenes for the past year or so, though his faction is now fully in control of the party. Following him is Vlad Voiculescu, ex-Health Minister and Ciolos's second in command in PLUS who chose to stay in USR following the split.

Only the first 4 seats were decided by the leadership, the following ones will be voted on in an intra-party primary contest. The whole thing is complicated by the likely alliance with the remnants of PMP and the stillborn PNL-Orban, which will both probably require eligible seats for themselves.

AUR also announced its candidates a while back, most of them unknowns for International leaders, but I will probably do a brief introduction for them in the following days (brief resume: 70% grifters, 30% crazies).

[RGM2609]

Crazed Russophile senator Diana Iovanovici-Sosoaca is truly a national treasure. I dare say that, if Romanian was spoken by more people internationally, she would be a great comedic relief to entire nations. However, there are people who actually look to her as some sort of savior and believe every bit of RT-type propaganda she decides to spit out of her mouth on any given day. Before we get to the funny side of this post, just so you understand how insane are we speaking here, I will present to you one of her political statements held on the Senate floor about the earthquakes in Turkey earlier this year (trigger warning):

"People had to die, and it's not over yet". For three years we have been experiencing a real campaign of mass killing worldwide, either through alleged pandemics and the imminent need to inject untested vaccines that kill people, or through wars that reduce the world's population, but rearrange international politics, realign power poles, and alter borders. We have lived to witness the production of earthquakes on command, which is actually an attack on Turkey by the overlords of the world who totally disliked being told "no" by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the President of Turkey. Moreover, his position of neutrality and mediation in the Russo-Ukrainian War has deeply disturbed them, especially since Turkey is the second greatest power from a military point of view within NATO. But no one thought that people would have to die, so many people in such a terrible way. And it's just a warning because it wasn't the most populated area of Turkey. 150 aftershocks of a devastating earthquake, the second larger than the first, without the existence of a hotbed. (...) The Turkish secret services are investigating a possible "criminal intervention", so basically an intervention of another state in triggering the first earthquake. It is very clear that President Erdogan was punished for his courage, dignity, and honor and for his closeness to the Russian Federation, in fact, a position of neutrality and mediation for peace.

It goes on and gets ever crazier, but I think this is enough for the day lol. Now, to the funny part. I will give you 3 short Facebook rants written by Sosoaca between 2017 and early 2020, and you will have to try to guess what/who they were about. If you get all 3 right, you win!

1: "Shame on you, Minister! You are a great stain on Romania! How low can a man go when he does dirty compromises!"

2: "We have the right to go into Parliament! Let's control our MPs and see how they exercise their duties to us the people! Go into Parliament, you have that right!"

3: "Another political institution serving criminals! You will provoke the blowover of anger from us! In the winter we get angry!"

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

1 - About PSD Minister of Justice Tudorel Toader, who was doing all kinds of things favoring criminals.
2 - A response to USR protesting in Parliament against PSD's modification of the Criminal Code.
3 - A response to Dragnea-controlled institutions fining hysterical anti-PSD journalist Rares Bogdan.

Here is a bonus:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

I am a free thinker who believes in a just, kind, forgiving, and loving God, not in one who rules through threats and fear and who forces poor people to hand out money to priests and an institution that became more disastrous than the Romanian government. We don't have the right to play with the minds and souls of our children, they need time until maturity to decide what religion is for them. Until then, the place of the dead is in the graveyard, not on the street to enrich the priests. God helps you if you are good, not if you kiss relics. (3 years later, her claim to fame was fighting against closing churches during lockdowns.)

And another one:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Vote! Respect for Romanian expats! Hard-working, far away from home, destroying their lives to protect their families in Romania destroyed by thieves and crooks! These beautiful people came out to change our country! Go to the polls! Destroy the criminals! Go Free Romania! (In response to a long line of expats going to vote for USR in 2019, she herself got a picture in a USR t-shirt)

[RGM2609]

On a rather broader theme, Estrella's post in the Slovak thread made me look through the posts and find the Western vs. Eastern way post just to see how it's aged and maybe discuss what comes next after these crazy years:

You'd be entirely correct if you gave this answer 15 years ago, however ever since Basescu's election a more coherent debate started to emerge in Romania, between West vs East. And I don't mean that geo-politically (even PSD was afraid to attack the EU before Dragnea came along) but more like a debate on the political/cultural/organisation system the country should adopt. It is between the syncronisation with the Western Countries or adopting a model whose best comparison, even through imperfect, is with the one of Belarus. Basescu was the one who started this debate even through its roots were already in the society, by adopting a more West-leaning speech compared to all other politicians (calling Basescu a supported of the Western system, would be incorrect, he was rather a moderate on this debate), which is the reason he was so polarising. The 2010 austerity measures stopped this debate for a while, the focus being driven towards Basescu and his drastic cuts. However, once Basescu and his party lost control due to popular anger, Victor Ponta and then even more so Liviu Dragnea governed exactly in the "Eastern" way, which would be fine in 2000 but not in 2019. This led to a wave of hostility against them and their party, PSD, and made Romanians more and more leaning towards the "Western" side. If we were to translate this theory to the existing parties, USR-PLUS would be the "party of the West", PSD-ALDE-UDMR and disguised ProRo the one of the East. PNL is rather incoherent on all of this. Hope I clarified things for you all.

Admittedly, like a lot of liberals, I was too optimistic after the fall of Dragnea about the future of Romanian politics, and I was notably more pessimistic than a lot of people in my RL and online circles. However, now looking at the grand scheme of things, there is not much I would take back from this post. The dividing line remains Western vs. Eastern, and I still believe that, in a high-turnout election, the "Western" side would come out ahead.

In the last years, PSD joined PNL in creating this sort of artificial middle ground and trying to get the best out of both sides. (i.e. PSD - keeping its pro-Eastern old voters while avoiding popular backlashes and international isolation, PNL - keeping its pro-"Western" urban voters while continuing stealing) They are sort of pulling it off for now because of everyone's sheer disgust and disinterest in the political scene, as well as their total control of established structures (media, institutions, mayors, country councils, turnout machines) allowing them to stay on top in low-turnout elections. However, this is the combined sum of PSD+PNL/PDL in recent history:

2004: 68.87
2008: 86.47
2012: 76.80
2016: 66.10
2020: 54.90

In the next election, I'd say that if they ally to rescue Iohannis's stranglehold over PNL, they would struggle to get past 40. If they go on separately, they'd probably combine to 45 in an optimistic scenario. That is on a low turnout, with a far from appealing opposition: a crazed party led by an ex-hooligan who is obviously a Russian operative, filled to the brink with grifters, and a corporation-incarnated party, unable to communicate with most of the country but with messianic egos, with, once again, nearly-full control over the media. UDMR, another party trying to work around the divide, is also in trouble: their vote number is constantly declining. I'd say they'd get kicked out on a turnout over 40% (they already were in the 2019 European election, but PSD bought votes for them in rural backwaters in Wallachia, as Hungarian as they are Vietnamese). I, personally, think that a crisis that would split things in half (i.e. immigration, economy, etc.), combined with more interest in politics would cause the established parties to squirm and collapse.

[RGM2609]

Okay, we actually have a pretty decent poll of the next election, here is what it looks like:

Parliamentary -
PSD - 29%
AUR - 23%
USR - 15%
PNL - 15%
UDMR - 5%
PMP - 3%
SOS Romania - 3%
PER - 3%
Pro Romania - 2%
ANC - 1%
FD - 1%

Presidential -
Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) - 29%
George Simion (AUR) - 29%
Nicolae Ciuca (PNL) - 14%
Catalin Drula (USR) - 8%
Dacian Ciolos (REPER) - 7%
Kelemen Hunor (UDMR) - 4%
Eugen Tomac (PMP) - 3%
Ludovic Orban (FD) - 3%

In other news, the PSD-PNL horror coalition did pass its nightmare fiscal measures to cover up for its own recklessness and theft (just last week, a PSD County Chairman was found with a bag full of cash in his trunk). How will they cover up for the gap? Raising taxes on small businesses, and random socialistic bullsh**t about "taxing luxury". Needless to say, given the state's horrendous inability to actually collect tax money, I predict that it will cost nearly as much to develop the infrastructure to collect PSD's dumb new taxes (one of them, I kid you not, involved taxing wedding gifts by 50%) as the revenue they would bring, ignoring the economic cost. I really hope the PSD-PNL coalition will still be governing in 2025 when they'll have to call the IMF.

The new fiscal package was passed through the Romanian version of Article 49.3, to avoid long debates which would have unveiled the stupidity and populism of the proposals. The alternative for the opposition is to propose a motion of no confidence against the government, however, given that USR refuses to collaborate with AUR and UDMR is still de facto in government despite being kicked out last spring to calm the internal tensions in PNL, there is no way to gather the required number of signatures to even file such a motion.

PS: Let us all say Hi to failed former Prime Minister Florin Citu, now touring all TV stations, giving out lessons in governance, and having nervous tirades against Ciolacu and PSD.

[RGM2609]

INSCOP poll for the Presidential Election:

First Round
Mircea Geoana (IND) - 25.3%
Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) - 19.5%
George Simion (AUR) - 18.7%
Nicolae Ciuca (PNL) - 11.2%
Diana Sosoaca (SOS) - 10.1%

Second Round

Mircea Geoana (IND) - 63.5%
George Simion (AUR) - 36.5%

Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) - 58.8%
George Simion (AUR) - 41.2%

Nicolae Ciuca (PNL) - 52.2%
George Simion (AUR) -47.8%


So, it would seem like INSCOP, the polling firm of the Deep State, is quite supportive of Mircea Geoana's prospective candidacy. It does seem clear that he wants to run desperately, and that PSD doesn't want to support him. Thus, an independent candidacy is the only option available at the moment. Is he actually so popular? No, but he did carefully craft his image as a professional, technocratic politician during his tenure at NATO, which seems to give him an advantage over less polished frauds like Ciolacu, Simion and Ciuca.

[Beagle]

INSCOP poll for the Presidential Election:

First Round
Mircea Geoana (IND) - 25.3%
Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) - 19.5%
George Simion (AUR) - 18.7%
Nicolae Ciuca (PNL) - 11.2%
Diana Sosoaca (SOS) - 10.1%

Second Round

Mircea Geoana (IND) - 63.5%
George Simion (AUR) - 36.5%

Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) - 58.8%
George Simion (AUR) - 41.2%

Nicolae Ciuca (PNL) - 52.2%
George Simion (AUR) -47.8%


So, it would seem like INSCOP, the polling firm of the Deep State, is quite supportive of Mircea Geoana's prospective candidacy. It does seem clear that he wants to run desperately, and that PSD doesn't want to support him. Thus, an independent candidacy is the only option available at the moment. Is he actually so popular? No, but he did carefully craft his image as a professional, technocratic politician during his tenure at NATO, which seems to give him an advantage over less polished frauds like Ciolacu, Simion and Ciuca.

Uh, is the implication here that USR+ voters would support Mircea Geoana? Given his history, I don't find this particularly plausible. I would like to think that neither is a combined Drula/Ciolos vote of less than 10%. And as far as I can see, the polling company never published the second round poll for the people it found in 1st and 2nd, instead testing the 1st vs 3rd, 2nd vs 3rd and 3rd vs 4th scenarios.

In brief: junk poll, no?

[RGM2609]

INSCOP poll for the Presidential Election:

First Round
Mircea Geoana (IND) - 25.3%
Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) - 19.5%
George Simion (AUR) - 18.7%
Nicolae Ciuca (PNL) - 11.2%
Diana Sosoaca (SOS) - 10.1%

Second Round

Mircea Geoana (IND) - 63.5%
George Simion (AUR) - 36.5%

Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) - 58.8%
George Simion (AUR) - 41.2%

Nicolae Ciuca (PNL) - 52.2%
George Simion (AUR) -47.8%


So, it would seem like INSCOP, the polling firm of the Deep State, is quite supportive of Mircea Geoana's prospective candidacy. It does seem clear that he wants to run desperately, and that PSD doesn't want to support him. Thus, an independent candidacy is the only option available at the moment. Is he actually so popular? No, but he did carefully craft his image as a professional, technocratic politician during his tenure at NATO, which seems to give him an advantage over less polished frauds like Ciolacu, Simion and Ciuca.

Uh, is the implication here that USR+ voters would support Mircea Geoana? Given his history, I don't find this particularly plausible. I would like to think that neither is a combined Drula/Ciolos vote of less than 10%. And as far as I can see, the polling company never published the second round poll for the people it found in 1st and 2nd, instead testing the 1st vs 3rd, 2nd vs 3rd and 3rd vs 4th scenarios.

In brief: junk poll, no?

Yeah, most likely. But, given the polling firm's affiliations, it does show a potential source of support for Geoana's candidacy in the Deep State. And, while probably not the presidential frontrunner, he does enjoy some genuine popularity among the Romanian people, given:

A. After Basescu's horribly unpopular second term, people forgot why they rejected him in 2009 and started feeling bad for him, many even thinking the election was stolen.
B. Apart from a pathetic attempt at creating a PSD splinter, he has largely been out of the political scene, but his high office abroad still gave him visibility and free publicity.

So yeah, Geoana's candidacy does strike me as the "big-tent" type that usually collapses in Romanian politics. But he might still play a role, especially if the very honest media owner Dan Voiculescu throws his full backing towards him, as he is rumoured to consider.

[RGM2609]

1. Ukrainian President Zelensky came to Romania today and was supposed to meet with the President/Prime Minister, as well as give a speech in front of the Parliament. The latter thing never happened, seemingly in fear of the stunts that might be pulled off by crazed Senator Diana Sosoaca, a frequent guest of the Russian Embassy and who has threatened all week about what she might do during the visit. But let's look at the last INSCOP poll about the war:

Who is, in your opinion, to blame for the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War?
Russia - 49,2%
USA - 16,6%
Ukraine - 7%
NATO - 5,2%
EU - 2,6%
Don't know - 19,4%

Who do you think will win the War?
Ukraine - 39,4%
Russia - 29,6%
Don't know - 31%

What do you think should happen for the War to end?
Russia should retreat and hand over occupied territories back to Ukraine - 64%
Ukraine should make concessions to Russia - 24,1%
Don't know - 11,9%

Honestly, given how uneven the media landscape is, I'm surprised support for Putinism isn't even higher. I guess not being a Slavic country helps. But it still amazes me how successful Russia, a state so incompetent militarily, has been at infiltrating and poisoning the political discourse. Facebook is, expectedly, a playground for anti-Western conspiracies and pro-Russian propaganda, and, for elders not using social media, the news cesspools owned by oligarchs like Ghita and Pacuraru are more than happy to compensate.

2. Just to get to know Sosoaca, the woman who scared Zelensky into not giving his speech, this is how this sane person describes her childhood:

My father had the following routine: in the morning at 6:30 he would wake me up, and the food was raw eggs and goat milk, after which we would go to a river and I had to swim for two hours in that water. In the winter it got even worse. My father would always bury himself in the snow. He measured how long he could stay in there and he made me do it a couple of times. It toughened me up and it was very good for me.

By all accounts, this woman grew up in Bucharest. The probability of her swimming in rivers or burying herself in snow together with her father is about as big as the probability that Ciolacu isn't a thief, or that PNL would actually get 21% in the next election. Let's pretend she didn't get inspired by bad action movies when telling her life story, but where tf did this btch find goats in Bucharest to milk?

[Estrella]

I've just found Armando Ianucci's amazing sequel to The Death of Stalin.

Seriously though, I know the Revolution was in many ways tragic, but this display of emotional speeches, furious improvisation, utter chaos, explosion of decades of pent-up anger, passionate and/or panicked shouting, spontaneous mobilization to fight for freedom and/or opportunistically seize power (Iliescu at 44min is already acting like he owns the place), fights almost breaking out, all on live TV... it's just 10/10. Even if I couldn't understand anything

(or almost anything. It helps that I speak a Romance language, a Slavic language and Hungarian and Romanian is basically a mix of all three. Like 90% went over my head, but I did catch some words and sometimes I had a lightbulb moment when I realized I understood a wonderful bastard Romance-Slavic or Romance-Hungarian phrase like locul de muncă or tota apa e otrăvită)

[PSOL]

This sequel is much better done than the disappointing prequel, both in terms of entertainment and the direct line in showing that it was a tragedy of events that was inevitable.

Facebook is not anti-western—indeed the buck stops at third world nationalist reactionaries and Chinese accounts, and the cleanse of the Left—so much as it is anti-youth in the context you are looking for. A significant amount of anti-western people got pruned during the Trump administration leaving just old bitter people trying to compensate that they didn’t live when they were younger.

Saying this, such rhetoric even though true does not wash away the very critical errors made by PS and moreso by anyone else. People do not want Matovic or these other egomaniacs who led the country to ruin during the worst moments of the pandemic that were truly done mostly by said egomaniacs. PS also shot itself in the foot by taking an uncompromising side in the conflicts with the EU by not realizing the shoddy state of the economy caused by the escalation of the Ukraine war and by not having the right messaging on the economy—whether it should have been tuned differently or in many cases not emphasized—that turned down a lot of voters of poorer social strata. They shot themselves in the foot by trying to be En Marche Slovak edition, something not very popular to the cleavages that make up a broader share in Slovakia than France. To my knowledge, GS and Golob of Slovenia did not make these same mistakes to induce negative partisanship.

[RGM2609]

Ugh, so much to be said about this, but I feel like this picture which was taken yesterday in the center of an important town perfectly summarizes how that toxic mix of naive people with good intentions and Securitate/PCR high brass cosplaying as democrats let Romania down:



A guy felt the need to put the following message on his truck about Ceausescu: "The only leader of Romanians with Dacian blood/He defied the Great Powers of the time and never bowed down to anyone". According to all available polls, Ceausescu would win presidential elections in landslides were he to rise from the dead.

[RGM2609]

So the earlier discussion about PSD-PNL running together in the next elections has been scrapped: PNL decided that it's time to pretend that they're PSD's main opponents again! They will climb onto the white horse (if it can carry Ciuca's weight) and fight against corruption and for liberal values until Election Day 2024! Eh, the actual reasons why this is happening is mainly that the PSD local machines and PNL local machines at still at each other's throats (USR and AUR are both still more of a "movement" than an established party) and without the machines working for them, PNL is basically dead. Ciuca has also basically declared himself the presidential candidate, but a lot of knives are waiting for him after the Europarliamentary, especially if they come in fourth. Meanwhile, Sosoaca has gone to the Russian Embassy again as an "estimeed guest" of a random reception. An occasion I'm sure she used to pull off some Nobel Prize-worthy diplomacy (earlier this year, she bragged that she single-handedly stopped the Wagner "coup" and saved Moscow).

But thankfully, the "good" guys are fighting these crooks and crazies bravely! I'm sure that USR's lead candidate didn't use her first interview after designation to viciously attack the party's most well-known mayor while also declare her homophobia on national stage! And if that happened, of course said mayor would take the high road and ignore this gaffe, not respond with her own vitriolic and passive aggressive rant on Facebook! Right, guys?

[RGM2609]

And just like that, this might be the shortest tenure as a "lead candidate" ever. Announced with great fanfare on September 15th, Lasconi's candidacy has been ended abruptly today by Drula announcing that he "asked" for her to withdraw. I am not sure which consultant had the bright idea that criticizing Clotilde Armand and declaring that she voted in the Dragnea-backed 2018 referendum would help Lasconi be more "relatable" to the average Romanian, but she might want a refund. This embarrassing ordeal also comes after Lasconi's daughter, a self-proclaimed "anti-capitalist" living in France, disowned her mother and threatened to reveal her "true face" online. If that wasn't enough, it is probable that now their lead candidate will be Barna. Congratulations, idiots!

[RGM2609]

Back on Cloud Cuckoo Land, except it's a hellish reinterpretation.

So, first the lol moment of the week. Catalin Chereches has been the Mayor of a mid-sized North Western city since 2011. He is quite an, erm, Berlusconian figure, known for his extravagance and open corruption. He won his 2016 re-election from inside a prison cell. A few days ago, his mother-in-law got arrested for attempting to bribe a judge who was going to rule on one of the numerous criminal cases the Mayor is a suspect in. You'd think he'd thank God the prosecutors couldn't directly tie him to the scheme and lay low, right? Wrong! He called in on the news cesspoll owned by fugitive Sebastian Ghita, where he expressed his opinion that the MIL is a complete idiot, that if she ever gets out of jail he will beat her to death and that, if his wife is proven to have known anything, he will once again become "the most wanted bachelor in Romania".