Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)

[RGM2609]

The first day of the negotiations was a failure, as the discussions had to be suspended after seven hours because the parties could not agree on the golden apple of discord - the Speakership of the Chamber of Deputies. UDMR also started to demand the Presidency of the Senate.

According to both politicians and political sources, the talks on policy went better, with a compromise already being forged on digitalization and progress being made on several different topics.

[RGM2609]

Well, the Sunday negotiations represented basically finding out that the parties are still stuck because Orban and Barna want the same office and were suddenly ended after two hours. They will start again in two days or so, after Iohannis officially nominates Florin Citu as the Prime Minister. The Liberals hope for the President to do something on Monday that will help solve this mess.

Political sources claim that there has been progress however on policy and parliamentary coordination, I will keep you updated on that. And the parties agreed not to boost their majority through party switchers.

[RGM2609]

Surprise surprise, days after PSD and AUR vehemently denied having any relations or planning any actions together, the press spotted their party leaders in the middle of some discussions. Many wonder if AUR will become a satellite of PSD or if it will try to maintain its political independence and even take away votes from the Social Democrats.

[RGM2609]

After the meeting between the President and the Parliamentary parties has ended, Iohannis has said that so far no party has proved to be able to form a majority government, thus a Prime Minister can not be nominated for now. This basically puts it back into the hands of the parties, and either PNL, USR or both will eventually have to give up on the Speakership of the Chamber.

Also, there are sources claiming that PSD plans not to get its MPs sworn in if they do not get the Chairmanships for important committees. For those unfamiliar, if over a third of its MPs are not sworn in, the new Parliament can not form. PSD has over a third. The right-wing coalition has been planning to give PSD the Chairmanship of non-important committees and keep the crucial ones for themselves.

[Mike88]

Isn't mandatory that the biggest party gets the chair of the most important committees? Here in Portugal, I believe Parliamentary rules mandate that. Are there no rules for this in Romania?

[RGM2609]

The negotiations continue now after Barna gave up on the Speakership, saying someone else from USR should have it, and saying that him, Orban and the UDMR leader Kelemen Hunor should be Deputy Prime Ministers instead. It remains to be seen whether PNL and UDMR accept that, especially as they have criticized Barna for making the offer publicly instead of behind the scenes.

[RGM2609]

BREAKING - Following a rejection by PNL of Barna's proposal, another shocking option has emerged: Orban may now return as Prime Minister. In this way, Barna could become Speaker of the House and put this hellish dispute behind. Of course, for Orban yo be nominated again after he resigned because of poor election results and PNL nominated someone else would be illogical to most Romanians, and USR is probably not looking favorably to it, as expressed by former PM Ciolos. This may actually be the roughest government formation ever.

[RGM2609]

Isn't mandatory that the biggest party gets the chair of the most important committees? Here in Portugal, I believe Parliamentary rules mandate that. Are there no rules for this in Romania?

Sorry this has taken so long, I forgot. Parliamentary rules mandate proportionality with the Committee chairmanships and positions, however, they do not rate them by importance. Thus, the majority decides what party gets what. Generally tho, the parties negotiate them in order to avoid crises like this one right now.

[RGM2609]

Sorry for the lack of updates, political fatigue has settled in a bit.

The negotiations are going smoothly after Orban agreed to give up on a lot of important Ministries in order to make himself the Speaker of the Chamber, to the desperation of PNL members and structures. USR will get 6 Ministries, namely Health, Development, Transportation, Economy, Research and European Funds. They have even got the Chief of Staff of the Prime Minister. Barna will be Deputy PM in exchange for giving up on being Speaker. UDMR has received Development, Youth and Environment. PNL will still keep 9 Ministries: Finance, Foreign Affairs, Defense, Energy, Internal Affairs, Education, Culture, Agriculture and Labour.

[RGM2609]

The new Parliament has been off to a bad start after AUR got to lead the first meeting of the Chamber of Deputies and then tried to call it off before the Chamber was technically formed (complicated procedures) by saying they were tired after so many hours. Eventually they left the room and the meeting continued with the MPs of the other parties. Also, the new Senator and infamous activist Diana Sosoaca together with other AUR Senators refused to put on a mask, with more controversies being caused by this, including a Senate investigation into Sosoaca and her invoked reasons for not putting on a mask.

Anyway, despite this mess caused by AUR, both Chambers have elected their new Leaderships - Ludovic Orban will be the Speaker of the Chamber, while the Presidency of the Senate will be filled by Anca Dragu, an USR member who was the Minister of Public Finance during the Ciolos Government.

[RGM2609]

It would seem as if the Ministers were approved by all three parties and the government will soon be formed. If anyone is interested I can do a write up on who these people are and what they are likely to do in government, but IDK if that is something anyone would want to see.

On another note, the decent people of Romania have had a small victory today when the anti-masker Senator Sosoaca was forced by the Senate to put on a mask. And the first doses of the vaccine will arrive here in 4 days, so hopefully in a few months we can also return to some sort of normalcy together with the rest of the world.

[RGM2609]

The first polls are out, and they show PSD at 36% and AUR at 13%, enough to form a government on their own. The short attention-spam of the average voter is proven once again, probably the main thing they remember about these parties is that they have got good results last time. I wonder what PSD (AUR will hopefully implode by then) will get in 2024 (I am scared of the answer)

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but voters having a "short attention span" can work in more than one way.

I wouldn't panic just yet

[RGM2609]

After tense hearings and a meeting of the Chamber during which the fight between the coalition and the PSD-AUR opposition reached uncivilized levels, Romania now has a new government at last. It was approved with 260 Ayes and 188 Nays. It remains to be seen what this government will be able to achieve, even as the signs do not look necessarily encouraging. For example, the new Education Minister, an anti-reformist figure who had the job during the Ponta Governments and switched to PNL once it got in power, is already publicly criticized by USR. The last time Romania had a full-term government was in 2004, since then, no one was able to carry a Cabinet throughout a whole legislature. With this unstable, weak coalition, it is unlikely for the permanent political crises to be over soon.

[RGM2609]

Yet another conflict in the new coalition: the President of the Senate has started the process of implementing the proposals that passed in 2009 and have been ignored since: unicameral Parliament with less than 300 members. A PNL MP was not too pleased with that, and basically said USR is anti-national using other words. Already?

[RGM2609]

The first earthquake is threatening to shake up the coalition government, as both PNL and USR will have to (re?)elect their leadership in the first months of the year. In USR, a battle between the unpopular incumbent Dan Barna and former Prime Minister Dacian Ciolos is very likely, and it is likely to shake up the party. In PNL, the war has already started between those who support Speaker Ludovic Orban and those who want another party leader, as both camps seem to be about equal. Many want to see how President Iohannis and Prime Minister Citu position themselves toward this before making any bets as to the likely winners.

[RGM2609]

I thought I should let you know that AUR has decided to join the European Conservatives and Reformists party at EU-level. I am not that informed about EU  intra-politics so I don't really have an analysis (if anyone has one, please share it lol) but I am surprised they have not joined a more radically rightist group.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I thought I should let you know that AUR has decided to join the European Conservatives and Reformists party at EU-level. I am not that informed about EU  intra-politics so I don't really have an analysis (if anyone has one, please share it lol) but I am surprised they have not joined a more radically rightist group.

It's the same one PiS is in, which makes sense considering AUR seem to go on about imitating them a fair bit.

[RGM2609]

I thought I should let you know that AUR has decided to join the European Conservatives and Reformists party at EU-level. I am not that informed about EU  intra-politics so I don't really have an analysis (if anyone has one, please share it lol) but I am surprised they have not joined a more radically rightist group.

It's the same one PiS is in, which makes sense considering AUR seem to go on about imitating them a fair bit.

Is PiS a borderline Covid denier party which focuses on its anti-mask and anti-vaccine policies? Because that is what AUR is really about, beyond their shallow anti-establishment and patriotic slogans.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I thought I should let you know that AUR has decided to join the European Conservatives and Reformists party at EU-level. I am not that informed about EU  intra-politics so I don't really have an analysis (if anyone has one, please share it lol) but I am surprised they have not joined a more radically rightist group.

It's the same one PiS is in, which makes sense considering AUR seem to go on about imitating them a fair bit.

Is PiS a borderline Covid denier party which focuses on its anti-mask and anti-vaccine policies? Because that is what AUR is really about, beyond their shallow anti-establishment and patriotic slogans.

Not at all, but they seem keen to claim commonality with each other anyway - https://www.g4media.ro/aur-anunta-ca-strange-relatiile-cu-partidele-anti-ue-george-simion-s-a-intalnit-cu-lideri-ai-partidului-de-guvernare-din-polonia-si-cu-conservatorii-europeni.html

[RGM2609]

I thought I should let you know that AUR has decided to join the European Conservatives and Reformists party at EU-level. I am not that informed about EU  intra-politics so I don't really have an analysis (if anyone has one, please share it lol) but I am surprised they have not joined a more radically rightist group.

It's the same one PiS is in, which makes sense considering AUR seem to go on about imitating them a fair bit.

Is PiS a borderline Covid denier party which focuses on its anti-mask and anti-vaccine policies? Because that is what AUR is really about, beyond their shallow anti-establishment and patriotic slogans.

Not at all, but they seem keen to claim commonality with each other anyway - https://www.g4media.ro/aur-anunta-ca-strange-relatiile-cu-partidele-anti-ue-george-simion-s-a-intalnit-cu-lideri-ai-partidului-de-guvernare-din-polonia-si-cu-conservatorii-europeni.html

Interesting, as AUR is nothing if not COVID denialist. I suppose joining an EU political party has its advantages and AUR was willing to put the differences aside in exchange of the membership.

[RGM2609]

New shocking developments regarding AUR - the raving lunatic Diana Sosoaca was kicked out of the party. They claim that it was because they basically got sick and tired of her embarrassing them (her last speech as an AUR member was a weird rant about an international conspiracy with the purpose of mass sterilization of women through the Pfizer vaccine which ended with angry, vulgare shouts at the Senate Chairwoman who cut her off). However, I suspect it was more about Simion getting afraid of her eventually taking the leadership from him as well as her clear opposition to the more sane, PiS-like route in which he wants to take the party. In the leadership councils, no one supported her, because she is...you know, a raving lunatic, however her loyal fans in the country have not let her down and have been quick to rally around their dear leader. She will certainly not go down quietly, and I suspect she may form a new party which will rip off AUR. The question that I am afraid I know the answer to is how many of the AUR voters would vote for a crazy conspiracist party rather than a so-called sane national conservative one. Anyway, we may be witnessing the beginning of the end for AUR.

The government is not doing that well either, given the problems facing the country, the permanent behind-the-scenes bickering between PNL and USR, permanent investigations into how PNL puts incompetent party members into non-political jobs and the onset of austerity. PNL immediately broke their promise to raise pensions by 8% in 2021 and instead froze them. Responding to that situation, the Prime Minister said that he is not bound by the electoral promises but by the coalition agreement. A very popular thing to say indeed.

[njwes]

New shocking developments regarding AUR - the raving lunatic Diana Sosoaca was kicked out of the party. They claim that it was because they basically got sick and tired of her embarrassing them (her last speech as an AUR member was a weird rant about an international conspiracy with the purpose of mass sterilization of women through the Pfizer vaccine which ended with angry, vulgare shouts at the Senate Chairwoman who cut her off). However, I suspect it was more about Simion getting afraid of her eventually taking the leadership from him as well as her clear opposition to the more sane, PiS-like route in which he wants to take the party. In the leadership councils, no one supported her, because she is...you know, a raving lunatic, however her loyal fans in the country have not let her down and have been quick to rally around their dear leader. She will certainly not go down quietly, and I suspect she may form a new party which will rip off AUR. The question that I am afraid I know the answer to is how many of the AUR voters would vote for a crazy conspiracist party rather than a so-called sane national conservative one. Anyway, we may be witnessing the beginning of the end for AUR.

The government is not doing that well either, given the problems facing the country, the permanent behind-the-scenes bickering between PNL and USR, permanent investigations into how PNL puts incompetent party members into non-political jobs and the onset of austerity. PNL immediately broke their promise to raise pensions by 8% in 2021 and instead froze them. Responding to that situation, the Prime Minister said that he is not bound by the electoral promises but by the coalition agreement. A very popular thing to say indeed.

Is it particularly shocking though? From a party like AUR, it actually seems surprisingly positive and rational lol

[RGM2609]

New shocking developments regarding AUR - the raving lunatic Diana Sosoaca was kicked out of the party. They claim that it was because they basically got sick and tired of her embarrassing them (her last speech as an AUR member was a weird rant about an international conspiracy with the purpose of mass sterilization of women through the Pfizer vaccine which ended with angry, vulgare shouts at the Senate Chairwoman who cut her off). However, I suspect it was more about Simion getting afraid of her eventually taking the leadership from him as well as her clear opposition to the more sane, PiS-like route in which he wants to take the party. In the leadership councils, no one supported her, because she is...you know, a raving lunatic, however her loyal fans in the country have not let her down and have been quick to rally around their dear leader. She will certainly not go down quietly, and I suspect she may form a new party which will rip off AUR. The question that I am afraid I know the answer to is how many of the AUR voters would vote for a crazy conspiracist party rather than a so-called sane national conservative one. Anyway, we may be witnessing the beginning of the end for AUR.

The government is not doing that well either, given the problems facing the country, the permanent behind-the-scenes bickering between PNL and USR, permanent investigations into how PNL puts incompetent party members into non-political jobs and the onset of austerity. PNL immediately broke their promise to raise pensions by 8% in 2021 and instead froze them. Responding to that situation, the Prime Minister said that he is not bound by the electoral promises but by the coalition agreement. A very popular thing to say indeed.

Is it particularly shocking though? From a party like AUR, it actually seems surprisingly positive and rational lol

It is shocking because no one could have predicted or even imagined this expulsion until it happened yesterday. It was obvious that she will eventually get into a conflict with the leadership because she wanted more power but they dealt with this future threat in a surprisingly quick and blunt manner, especially given her notoriety and popularity with their base.

[RGM2609]

A potential battle is emerging for the leadership of PNL, the party which now controls the government. The incumbent Prime Minister has refused to rule out running against Ludovic Orban, the PNL chairman and Speaker of the Chamber. There are a lot of calls towards Orban, who had to resign after PNL embarrassed itself at the last elections, to resign and let the new Prime Minister lead the party, calls that he rejected. However, a lot of organizations in the country still back him, so it is likely for such a battle to be fierce.

The most likely outcome is for one of them to bow out of the race before the Congress, as contested leadership elections in Romania are rather rare and usually turn bloody when they do happen (the 2013 PDL one is the best example and still has a massive impact on politics), so the powerful politicians do their best to avoid them.