Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)

[Beagle]

Yikes.

A hefty polling miss, but no pollster would have had modeled a turnout barely above 30% and last minute upsurges in support for beyond-the-pale parties are notoriously hard to catch. But the results are genuinely alarming. With only about 1 out of 7 eligible voters casting a vote for one of the (presumptive) governing parties and with opposition that will be trolling every step of the way, I expect PNL/USR support to crater rather soon. 

I never realized that there is such a strong nationalist current among Romanians living abroad - wasn't  the 2014 voting lines debacle caused precisely because PSD wanted to reduce the diaspora participation, as the expatriates were strongly pro-Iohannis? Although I'm not sure if the overseas vote report includes Western Europe and the US yet, where presumably AUR will not be as strong. However, if it includes Moldova, surely it is curtains for PMP?
 

[RGM2609]

Yikes.

A hefty polling miss, but no pollster would have had modeled a turnout barely above 30% and last minute upsurges in support for beyond-the-pale parties are notoriously hard to catch. But the results are genuinely alarming. With only about 1 out of 7 eligible voters casting a vote for one of the (presumptive) governing parties and with opposition that will be trolling every step of the way, I expect PNL/USR support to crater rather soon. 

I never realized that there is such a strong nationalist current among Romanians living abroad - wasn't  the 2014 voting lines debacle caused precisely because PSD wanted to reduce the diaspora participation, as the expatriates were strongly pro-Iohannis? Although I'm not sure if the overseas vote report includes Western Europe and the US yet, where presumably AUR will not be as strong. However, if it includes Moldova, surely it is curtains for PMP?
 

Well, as to the people abroad, some of the more...undereducated ones to be frank are fierce nationalists and did not adopt the European liberalism while in foreign countries. They can not support PSD because they blame it for the situation in the country which forced them to leave in the first place, sometimes abandoning their children in the process, and because of with how much arrogance they have been treated by PSD since 2009. Especially the communities in Italy and Spain seem to fit this pattern, while AUR is not performing as well in Northern Europe or in America. Besides, the outreach of AUR to these communities was splendid, it was how I heard about them in the first place. USR and PNL did not focus on them that much, thinking the pandemic will prevent them from voting anyway. I kind of expected an AUR overperformance abroad, through not to this extent.

I think 70% of what is out is from abroad, through the site has collapsed, fitting to this horrendous election. PMP is generally over 5% there, so it could help them, but the clock is ticking for them to catch up.

[RGM2609]

99.8% in -

PSD - 30.1%
PNL - 26.1%
USR - 15.9%
AUR - 9.4%
UDMR - 6%
PMP - 4.95% (!)
PRO - 4.3%

15 more precincts have reported since, PMP is now up to 4.98%. There are still 33 precincts we are waiting for, out of 19.5k. The counting was surprisingly quick.

[RGM2609]

BREAKING - With 99.9% of the vote in, PMP has finally managed to pass the 5% threshold. It is very close and 20 precincts are still out, so everyone is still nervous, but probably Moldova has saved PMP again. This is great news for PNL and USR, who now probably do not need to depend on UDMR to form a coalition. Such a majority would be limited in doing anything, as UDMR is anti-reformist and corrupt, as proven by their support for Dragnea and his judicial suppression efforts.

[bigic]

Where did you find these results? According to all the websites I visited, PMP is still under 5%

[RGM2609]

Where did you find these results? According to all the websites I visited, PMP is still under 5%

The websites are probably behind. You'll see the number grow to 5% as they get more results

[RGM2609]

We are still waiting for 10 precincts out of 19.5k, and Basescu's party is at...5.00%. We have never had such a situation before, with a party literally on the threshold.

[CumbrianLefty]

So, was the PSD topping the poll a surprise?

(especially since a low turnout wouldn't normally be expected to favour them)

[RGM2609]

So, was the PSD topping the poll a surprise?

(especially since a low turnout wouldn't normally be expected to favour them)

Actually, low turnout always favors them because they have the most disciplined base.

To the pollsters, it clearly was a surprise. To me, not so much. It was clear how damaged PNL was. The only true surprise in this election is AUR and maybe PRO being under the threshold, through that was a known possibility.

[RGM2609]

BREAKING - Following reported pressures from inside PNL and from President Iohannis, Prime Minister Orban has resigned from his job. Many blame his government for the awful result from yesterday. Now, PNL will have to propose someone else for the job, and Deputy PM Raluca Turcan will probably lead the lame-duck government until the right-wing parties form another government.

[Beagle]

BREAKING - Following reported pressures from inside PNL and from President Iohannis, Prime Minister Orban has resigned from his job. Many blame his government for the awful result from yesterday. Now, PNL will have to propose someone else for the job, and Deputy PM Raluca Turcan will probably lead the lame-duck government until the right-wing parties form another government.

Stepping down as party leader too or only as PM?

If the normal patterns are in place, I expect support for AUR - and to a lesser extent PSD - to spike now, so the center-right will have an extra incentive to not make government formation too difficult. I very much doubt that the PNL/USR voters from 2019 who abstained this time are feeling too much remorse now, so it is imperative that there are no new elections. Any updates on the outstanding precincts?

[RGM2609]

BREAKING - Following reported pressures from inside PNL and from President Iohannis, Prime Minister Orban has resigned from his job. Many blame his government for the awful result from yesterday. Now, PNL will have to propose someone else for the job, and Deputy PM Raluca Turcan will probably lead the lame-duck government until the right-wing parties form another government.

Stepping down as party leader too or only as PM?

If the normal patterns are in place, I expect support for AUR - and to a lesser extent PSD - to spike now, so the center-right will have an extra incentive to not make government formation too difficult. I very much doubt that the PNL/USR voters from 2019 who abstained this time are feeling too much remorse now, so it is imperative that there are no new elections. Any updates on the outstanding precincts?

There are no official reports on him stepping down as party leader for now. A possibility is for him to remain party leader until the Party Congress next year, where he will allow the new PM to take over. Also there are some rumors that Iohannis wants to make him the Speaker of the Chamber in the next Parliament, so he will be around for a while anyway.

So far there are no reports from the 10 precincts left. Given that all of them are from abroad, I would say that PMP is very likely to be in the next Parliament.

[Mike88]

BREAKING - Following reported pressures from inside PNL and from President Iohannis, Prime Minister Orban has resigned from his job. Many blame his government for the awful result from yesterday. Now, PNL will have to propose someone else for the job, and Deputy PM Raluca Turcan will probably lead the lame-duck government until the right-wing parties form another government.

What a mess. Jesus. Any idea on who's on the line for the top job?

[RGM2609]

BREAKING - Following reported pressures from inside PNL and from President Iohannis, Prime Minister Orban has resigned from his job. Many blame his government for the awful result from yesterday. Now, PNL will have to propose someone else for the job, and Deputy PM Raluca Turcan will probably lead the lame-duck government until the right-wing parties form another government.

What a mess. Jesus. Any idea on who's on the line for the top job?

According to the media, the frontrunner is Defense Minister Nicolae Ciucu, Other options would be Bihor County Chairman Ilie Bolojan, Finance Minister Florin Citu, Economy Minister Virgil Popescu and SRI Director Eduard Hellvig. I will keep everyone updated.

[PSOL]

So what relations do/will PSD and AUR have exactly, considering both parties hate the liberal urbanites and they are both conspiracy theorizers?

[RGM2609]

BREAKING - The Defense Minister and reported frontrunner for being the permanent PM has been appointed to be Acting PM by President Iohannis until the center-right coalition can form a government.

[RGM2609]

So what relations do/will PSD and AUR have exactly, considering both parties hate the liberal urbanites and they are both conspiracy theorizers?

They do not have an actual relation yet, as AUR was not expected to get anywhere near the Parliament. AUR is certainly closer to PSD than to the likely government but there will certainly be some competition between them as AUR has probably taken a lot of votes from PSD. AUR despises the post-Dragnea PSD for its so-called moderation and for admitting that COVID-19 is an actual thing, while PSD views AUR as a nuisance taking away nationalist votes from them. They will probably co-operate from time to time but AUR needs to stay a visible anti-establishment party to avoid the fate of PPDD. I would expect some attacks from them towards PSD.

[Derpist]

Tbh I am disheartened and disappointed by these results. How can so many not turnout after everything that has happened, or to vote for parties like PSD and AUR which are corrupt, extremist and nationalist parties which want to cancel restrictions despite the huge number of cases and deaths is beyond me.

Because the alternative was a bunch of NATO-backed neoliberal ghouls who would pay back their benefactors by privatizing healthcare.

Also, apparently bad election rules that make it harder to vote.

[RGM2609]

Tbh I am disheartened and disappointed by these results. How can so many not turnout after everything that has happened, or to vote for parties like PSD and AUR which are corrupt, extremist and nationalist parties which want to cancel restrictions despite the huge number of cases and deaths is beyond me.

Because the alternative was a bunch of NATO-backed neoliberal ghouls who would pay back their benefactors by privatizing healthcare.

Also, apparently bad election rules that make it harder to vote.

That was unexpected but ok lol (also on NATO, I am sorry to tell you that PSD got us into it!)

[Beagle]

Reading our local coverage now... Was Bobby Păunescu involved in political campaigns before?

[RGM2609]

Reading our local coverage now... Was Bobby Păunescu involved in political campaigns before?

He owns a news television and political newspapers/websites. Usually this would mean that he is knee deep in the political swamp. Through I do not remembee him coming out of the shadows before

[RGM2609]

Even more chaos related to Basescu's party. It would seem as if the results from the Electoral Bureau were wrong and gave PMP a higher score than it actually received, and thus it is still under 5%. PMP has reportedly already contested the results in all counties and is pushing for recounts. Jesus what a disaster of an election. It will be even worse if it comes down to those 18k absentee votes that were lost.

[RGM2609]

I am sorry for insisting so much that PMP was over the threshold. I made the bold assumption that our electoral authorities could count. I am looking forward to see tommorrow the new ways in which this election gets even worse. It is still 2020 after all. Perhaps they magically find tens of thousands of ballots for PRO and pull them over the threshold or something.

[Mike88]

Results map:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1335750269896888320

[Former President tack50]

I know there is a mountain range and history dating back to WW1;  but why does Romania have that distinct difference between the east and south voting left and the northwest voting right?

Is it a case like Poland where the northwest is more developed because it was part of Austria-Hungary or something?