Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)

[RGM2609]

It seems that the final turnout will be around 32-33%.

The lowest in history...Sad!

[Mike88]

It seems that the final turnout will be around 32-33%.

The lowest in history...Sad!

This is almost EU Parliament turnout levels. I predicted around 36%, but this bellow my expectations.

[RGM2609]

It seems that the final turnout will be around 32-33%.

The lowest in history...Sad!

This is almost EU Parliament turnout levels. I predicted around 36%, but this bellow my expectations.

Actually, people found that more important, seemingly. In 2019, the turnout was at 50%.

[Mike88]

Yep, anyway, polls close at the top of the hour, right?

[PetrSokol]

It seems that the final turnout will be around 32-33%.

Really low. It will be intersting how the turnout will be distributed among regions and urban/rural areas...

[RGM2609]

CURS-AVANGARDE:

PSD - 30.5%
PNL - 29.0%
USR - 15.9%
PRO - 5%
PMP - 5%
UDMR - 5.7%
AUR - 5.2%

[RGM2609]

SOCIOPOL -
PNL - 28%
PSD - 28%
USR - 16.3%
UDMR - 6.2%
AUR - 5.8%
PRO - 5.8%
PMP - 4.3%

[Mike88]

CURS-AVANGARDE:

PSD - 30.5%
PNL - 29.0%
USR - 15.9%
PRO - 5%
PMP - 5%
UDMR - 5.7%
AUR - 5.2%

Still, too close to call, but not good. Any seat projections?

[PetrSokol]

Sociopol
House
PNL 28,0 %
PSD 28,0 %
USR 16,3 %
UDMR 6,2 %
PRO 5,7 %
AUR 5,8 %

[RGM2609]

INSOMAR shows PNL ahead at 32% and PSD behind at 28%.

With 3 parties around 5% and the undecided first place, it is very important to watch the actual results.

[Mike88]

INSOMAR shows PNL ahead at 32% and PSD behind at 28%.

With 3 parties around 5% and the undecided first place, it is very important to watch the actual results.

We will only know the results tomorrow and in the days to follow, right?

[RGM2609]

INSOMAR full exit poll -

PNL - 32.8%
PSD - 28.2%
USR - 15.6%
PMP - 6%
UDMR - 5.8%
PRO - 4.5%
AUR - 3%

As you can see, it differs a bit from the other two exit polls.

[RGM2609]

The next government will be PNL-USR with PMP if needed. This was already made clear by all parties involved.

Any thoughts on the results?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1335669600969748485

[Beagle]

[...]

And speaking of dropping dead, I was wondering what happened to the PRM voters - I know the party still gets marginal support, as does PRU, and obviously PSD has adopted a lot of nationalist rhetoric - but by and large the 'far right' sector in Romanian politics seems oddly empty lately.

[...]

On PRM voters - most of the older ones died by now. Some young fanatics grew up and dropped nationalism. The rest are supporting PSD, as do most of its former politicians. But far right nationalism, or national-communism, has a tendency to backfire spectacularly on the ones who openly use it. The majority of Romania wants a more modern, more liberal society and rhetoric against that can mobilize it to the polls in great numbers.

I see the reports of the death of the far right appear to have been somewhat exaggerated. I would have been genuinely surprised if the nationalist/conspiracy theory voters didn't find an electoral outlet. Hopefully AUR turn out to be regular grifters (much like the late and unlamented Corneliu Vadim Tudor) and not the Kotleba type.

In any case, thank you so much for your coverage, RGM2609! It has been invaluable in helping me understand the Romanian situation. It is, of course, sad that the younger generations seem to have ignored the lessons from 2016, but if everything that has transpired over the course of the last 4 years hasn't taught them, then nothing will. Bulgaria also appears on course to repeat its mistakes in a few months time, so it's not like I have any suggestion on what works in Eastern Europe other than outrage over an event that is extremely fresh in voters mind. I would say that anything over 2-3 weeks is beyond the attention span of the average voter.

I know that it is a difficult question, but do small parties traditionally over- or underperform their exit poll numbers, since a lot will depend on which of the minors get in? With the exception of 2015, the exit polls in Bulgaria have always been more generous to the minor parties than the final results, so when a party is right at the threshold at poll closing time in the exits, almost inevitably they are out in the morning.

[RGM2609]

[...]

And speaking of dropping dead, I was wondering what happened to the PRM voters - I know the party still gets marginal support, as does PRU, and obviously PSD has adopted a lot of nationalist rhetoric - but by and large the 'far right' sector in Romanian politics seems oddly empty lately.

[...]

On PRM voters - most of the older ones died by now. Some young fanatics grew up and dropped nationalism. The rest are supporting PSD, as do most of its former politicians. But far right nationalism, or national-communism, has a tendency to backfire spectacularly on the ones who openly use it. The majority of Romania wants a more modern, more liberal society and rhetoric against that can mobilize it to the polls in great numbers.

I see the reports of the death of the far right appear to have been somewhat exaggerated. I would have been genuinely surprised if the nationalist/conspiracy theory voters didn't find an electoral outlet. Hopefully AUR turn out to be regular grifters (much like the late and unlamented Corneliu Vadim Tudor) and not the Kotleba type.

In any case, thank you so much for your coverage, RGM2609! It has been invaluable in helping me understand the Romanian situation. It is, of course, sad that the younger generations seem to have ignored the lessons from 2016, but if everything that has transpired over the course of the last 4 years hasn't taught them, then nothing will. Bulgaria also appears on course to repeat its mistakes in a few months time, so it's not like I have any suggestion on what works in Eastern Europe other than outrage over an event that is extremely fresh in voters mind. I would say that anything over 2-3 weeks is beyond the attention span of the average voter.

I know that it is a difficult question, but do small parties traditionally over- or underperform their exit poll numbers, since a lot will depend on which of the minors get in? With the exception of 2015, the exit polls in Bulgaria have always been more generous to the minor parties than the final results, so when a party is right at the threshold at poll closing time in the exits, almost inevitably they are out in the morning.

As far as I can remember, Romanian exit polls have been absurdly good at predicting which minor parties are in and which are out. Which makes this situation in which they disagree even more unpredictable.

Anyway, as far as AUR goes, nobody knew who they were until a month ago. They smartly exploited the backlash against COVID-19 restrictions and PSD's moderation in pushing virus-related conspiracy theories. The environment was just perfect for them. I have no doubt they will share PPDD's fate, but hey, I've been wrong before. Anyway, I am not yet sure they will be getting in for many reasons but the main one is - they have no poll watchers. Poll watchers are everything, especially in rural areas. I think their votes will be stolen to some extent by the established parties.

[kaoras]

Awful results for PRO right?

[RGM2609]

Awful results for PRO right?

Yep. They absorbed another important party (ALDE) right before and they are still around the threshold. And even if they get in, they are in for four years of opposition

[Beagle]

Anyway, as far as AUR goes, nobody knew who they were until a month ago. They smartly exploited the backlash against COVID-19 restrictions and PSD's moderation in pushing virus-related conspiracy theories. The environment was just perfect for them. I have no doubt they will share PPDD's fate, but hey, I've been wrong before. Anyway, I am not yet sure they will be getting in for many reasons but the main one is - they have no poll watchers. Poll watchers are everything, especially in rural areas. I think their votes will be stolen to some extent by the established parties.

Ah... Also, the exit don't take into account the diaspora vote, where the AUR vote share will be minuscule, right? In that case I'd definitely agree that it is very likely for them to fall under the threshold.

[RGM2609]

39% of the vote is in, mostly from rural (and more Hungarian) areas -

PSD - 31%
PNL - 25%
USR - 12%
AUR - 9%
UDMR - 9%
PMP - 4.8%
PRO - 4.5%

[RGM2609]

Anyway, as far as AUR goes, nobody knew who they were until a month ago. They smartly exploited the backlash against COVID-19 restrictions and PSD's moderation in pushing virus-related conspiracy theories. The environment was just perfect for them. I have no doubt they will share PPDD's fate, but hey, I've been wrong before. Anyway, I am not yet sure they will be getting in for many reasons but the main one is - they have no poll watchers. Poll watchers are everything, especially in rural areas. I think their votes will be stolen to some extent by the established parties.

Ah... Also, the exit don't take into account the diaspora vote, where the AUR vote share will be minuscule, right? In that case I'd definitely agree that it is very likely for them to fall under the threshold.

I don't think it will be low abroad. Their leader is a former Moldovan activist. It might surpass PSD there tbh

[RGM2609]

46% in -

PSD - 31%
PNL - 25%
USR - 13%
AUR - 9%
UDMR - 8%
PMP - 4.7%
PRO - 4.5%

[RGM2609]

65% in -

PSD - 31%
PNL - 26%
USR - 14%
AUR - 9%
UDMR - 8%
PMP - 4.7%
PRO - 4.4%

[Mike88]

65% in -

PSD - 31%
PNL - 26%
USR - 14%
AUR - 9%
UDMR - 8%
PMP - 4.7%
PRO - 4.4%

How much of the urban vote is in?

[Former President tack50]

Oof so the far right might make it?

That would mean that one of the very few "dominoes" that were yet to fall to the spell of the far right has fallen (though it's not like PSD doesn't have the usual conspiracy theorists and what not?)

Which countries are left in the EU without a far right party? By the strictest definitions and my counts is it seriously just Malta and Ireland?