Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)

[Mike88]

The more than 900,000 overseas ballots in the 2020 Presidential election will not be reached this time around, right? The number will be much lower.

No, it will certainly not be reached. The first day is almost over in most places and it did not even reach 100.000. (Even as in the last day more people vote, 900.000 is still impossible)

Hmm, that doesn't bode well for the PNL. Also, typo error, I meant to say the 2019 Presidential election, not 2020.

[RGM2609]

Now, I will attempt to explain the demented electoral system through which we elect the Parliament -

The Romanian Parliament is formed of two chambers, the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. In case you were wondering in what ways are the two chambers different, other than their names - they are not different. They do exactly the same things, have the exact same political composition and delay the legislative process. They only exist to offer even more politicians immunity and jobs, together with their entire staffs. The Parliament will also have over 450 members, meaning one MP for 36.000 people, whereas most European countries have one MP for 64.000 people. Again, this is only a thing because more politicians need a job. We actually held a referendum in 2009 which cleared the turnout threshold for validation. 77% voted for unicameralism and 88% for reducing the size of the Parliament to 300 members. Of course, politicians felt free to just ignore it.

Anyway, the Chamber of Deputies is the largest of the two chambers, with 329 members. Of them 312 will be elected proportionally from 43 constituencies (41 counties, Bucharest and people abroad), depending on their population. For example, Bucharest will elect 29 Deputies while Ialomita County will only elect 4. However, the vote is on party lists anyway, so there is little contact between the Member of Parliament and his constituents. The other 17 seats are reserved for parties of the national minorities (unless those parties clear the normal threshold anyway, like UDMR does).

The Senate is the same, with its 136 members elected proportionally from the 43 constituencies. There is no guaranteed representation for national minorities however.

Anyway, to further the absurdity of the system, even if a party passes the threshold in a constituency, it can not get any seats unless it either has 5% nationwide or 20% in four constituencies (this was invented so that UDMR stays in). Hopefully you understood the system!

[RGM2609]

And also, a new poll is up!

[RGM2609]

In a major shock to everyone, at 9 AM, turnout is 2.78% in Romania compared to 2.58% in 2016. The difference is small and it could disappear as the voting process continues, but the early signs are of a turnout around 40%, like in 2016.

[RGM2609]

At 10 AM, the turnout went slightly under 2016 (4.9% vs 5.3%). It remains to be seen what will happen next, but it is clear that the grim predictions of a turnout under 35% will probably not come true.

[RGM2609]

Despite a relatively strong start in the first two hours, the turnout is lagging 2016 further and further as the voting process continues. At 12 PM, it is at 10.7% compared to 12.5% in 2016 and 15.7% at the local elections this year. So far, as expected, the electorate is PSD-friendly, as old people tend to vote early in the morning. It remains to be seen how much the demography changes throughout the day.

[Mike88]

Very low turnout at 13pm: 13.85%.

Turnout in Bucharest is higher than the national average: 19.61%. And it seems that urban turnout is a bit higher than the rural turnout.

[RGM2609]

Adevarul.ro, a rather reputable news source, has published leaked exit poll results up until 2 PM, but I am not sure how reliable they are - PNL 32%, PSD 29%, USR 17%, PRO 6%, AUR 6%, UDMR 5%, PMP 3%. Again, these might not be real and they are bound to change until the voting process stops anyway.

[Mike88]

Adevarul.ro, a rather reputable news source, has published leaked exit poll results up until 2 PM, but I am not sure how reliable they are - PNL 32%, PSD 29%, USR 17%, PRO 6%, AUR 6%, UDMR 5%, PMP 3%. Again, these might not be real and they are bound to change until the voting process stops anyway.

Is there penalties for those who leak exit polls before polls close?

[RGM2609]

Adevarul.ro, a rather reputable news source, has published leaked exit poll results up until 2 PM, but I am not sure how reliable they are - PNL 32%, PSD 29%, USR 17%, PRO 6%, AUR 6%, UDMR 5%, PMP 3%. Again, these might not be real and they are bound to change until the voting process stops anyway.

Is there penalties for those who leak exit polls before polls close?

No

[bigic]

Adevarul.ro, a rather reputable news source, has published leaked exit poll results up until 2 PM, but I am not sure how reliable they are - PNL 32%, PSD 29%, USR 17%, PRO 6%, AUR 6%, UDMR 5%, PMP 3%. Again, these might not be real and they are bound to change until the voting process stops anyway.

This seems to be good for PNL and USR-PLUS and bad for PSD. AFAIK PSD voters tend to vote earlier in the morning.
As for the AUR - wtf?!

[RGM2609]

Adevarul.ro, a rather reputable news source, has published leaked exit poll results up until 2 PM, but I am not sure how reliable they are - PNL 32%, PSD 29%, USR 17%, PRO 6%, AUR 6%, UDMR 5%, PMP 3%. Again, these might not be real and they are bound to change until the voting process stops anyway.

This seems to be good for PNL and USR-PLUS and bad for PSD. AFAIK PSD voters tend to vote earlier in the morning.
As for the AUR - wtf?!

Yes, I am a bit surprised that PSD is already behind. If those numbers are true, they might get 25% or less. Still, I will not put my full confidence into some leaked exit polls. But the extremely weak turnout in rural areas seems to agree with this take.

AUR on the other hand is really shocking. There are a lot of allusions on TV stations too that they are over the threshold. They may still come short as more liberals vote in remaining hours, but I guess more conspiracists and anti-maskers voted than expected.

[RGM2609]

Now another leak seems to say that PSD and PNL were statistically tied at 3 PM, with PSD narrowly ahead. I will probably stop posting these leaks because they seem to contradict each other and are pretty unreliable, but PNL will probably be ahead when the voting stops.

[RGM2609]

The turnout is very low, 29.8% with only two hours to go in Romania and not even 300.000 votes abroad. The bulk of the losses, compared to 2016, seems to be among seniors with lower turnout by about 15% (50% in 2016, not even 35 now) among them. The pandemic has surely played a part in this.

[Crumpets]

I haven't paid any attention to Romanian politics since the protests a couple of years ago, so the possible emergence of a right-wing party in parliament is somewhat surprising to me, but maybe not so much given the context of where Europe as a whole has gone over the last couple of years.

I've hesitantly supported USR since it first came about (it was founded two days before I visited Romania for the first time, so it was kind of a hot topic of conversation among people willing to talk politics at the time), so I'm glad to see at least 7 of the other 11 people to vote in the poll at the top of the thread think the same and I'm not just a gullible foreigner won over by 20-somethings in Bucharest.

[RGM2609]

I haven't paid any attention to Romanian politics since the protests a couple of years ago, so the possible emergence of a right-wing party in parliament is somewhat surprising to me, but maybe not so much given the context of where Europe as a whole has gone over the last couple of years.

I've hesitantly supported USR since it first came about (it was founded two days before I visited Romania for the first time, so it was kind of a hot topic of conversation among people willing to talk politics at the time), so I'm glad to see at least 7 of the other 11 people to vote in the poll at the top of the thread think the same and I'm not just a gullible foreigner won over by 20-somethings in Bucharest.

Nope, I voted for them today tbh. They are a somewhat confused and a bit delusional, probably understandable for a new party with unexpected succes, but at least they aren't the old corrupt establishment and are willing to do reforms.

[PetrSokol]

How is it possible that adevarul.eo has got  some exit-polls before the closing of the polls? Are they real? For example in my country it forbiden to pubish them before the closing of voting...

[RGM2609]

How is it possible that adevarul.eo has got  some exit-polls before the closing of the polls? Are they real? For example in my country it forbiden to pubish them before the closing of voting...

Here it is not forbidden...online. The televisions and radio stations aren't even allowed to mention the name of the parties in the last three days of the campaign. Weird loopholes are what Romanian laws are all about.

[PetrSokol]

Exit-poll URS Avangarde - 17:30 (source adevarul.ro)
PSD - 31,1%
PNL - 28,7%
USR - 15,3%
UDMR - 6%
AUR - 5,3%
PMP - 5%
Pro România - 5%.

[RGM2609]

Exit-poll URS Avangarde - 17:30 (source adevarul.ro)
PSD - 31,1%
PNL - 28,7%
USR - 15,3%
UDMR - 6%
AUR - 5,3%
PMP - 5%
Pro România - 5%.

I am starting to think that this is fake. How is PSD gaining as the voting process continues? Never happened before

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Any good results pages for when polls close?

[RGM2609]

Any good results pages for when polls close?

Not that I am aware of, unfortunately. But if I find one I'll post it here.

[PetrSokol]

Does the acronym AUR really means in Romanian "Gold"?

[RGM2609]

Does the acronym AUR really means in Romanian "Gold"?

Yes. I think they chose the name only for the acronym

[Mike88]

It seems that the final turnout will be around 32-33%.