Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)

[Mike88]

Latest poll:

31.3% PNL
22.0% PSD
17.0% USR+PLUS
  9.3% PRO+ADLE
  5.4% UDMR
  4.8% PMP
10.2% Others

It seems that PNL and USR are condemned to get along. PNL+PRO+ADLE doesn't seem enough to have a majority. The relations between PNL and USR haven't improved, right?.

This is a poll made public by Victor Ponta, the leader of PRO-ALDE. However, he did not bother to state who conducted this poll, it could as well be made up.

Anyway, PNL-PRO-ALDE was not a coalition option, as PRO-ALDE is a group former by ex-PSDers with similar views as their former party. PNL-UDMR-PMP was the only other option, excluding PNL-USR.

Oh right, wasn't aware of that. It's more an internal polling that an actual poll, and it could, like you said, made up. Is any more polling expected during the week, or is there some kind of polling ban?

I would say that some polls will come out during the final week, I am particularly waiting for the IMAS monthly poll, but the lack of polls during this campaign has been surprising and it probably reflects a lack of interest for this campaign, despite it being the only one which actually matters.

The pandemic may had an impact also, IMO, as people don't seem to much engaged in politics as so many things in our personal lives are upside during this period. Do you expect turnout to be low?

[RGM2609]

Latest poll:

31.3% PNL
22.0% PSD
17.0% USR+PLUS
  9.3% PRO+ADLE
  5.4% UDMR
  4.8% PMP
10.2% Others

It seems that PNL and USR are condemned to get along. PNL+PRO+ADLE doesn't seem enough to have a majority. The relations between PNL and USR haven't improved, right?.

This is a poll made public by Victor Ponta, the leader of PRO-ALDE. However, he did not bother to state who conducted this poll, it could as well be made up.

Anyway, PNL-PRO-ALDE was not a coalition option, as PRO-ALDE is a group former by ex-PSDers with similar views as their former party. PNL-UDMR-PMP was the only other option, excluding PNL-USR.

Oh right, wasn't aware of that. It's more an internal polling that an actual poll, and it could, like you said, made up. Is any more polling expected during the week, or is there some kind of polling ban?

I would say that some polls will come out during the final week, I am particularly waiting for the IMAS monthly poll, but the lack of polls during this campaign has been surprising and it probably reflects a lack of interest for this campaign, despite it being the only one which actually matters.

The pandemic may had an impact also, IMO, as people don't seem to much engaged in politics as so many things in our personal lives are upside during this period. Do you expect turnout to be low?

Anything over 40% would surprise me tbh. People who are not political nerds always focus on the Presidential election and disregard the crucial Parliamentary elections (politics in Romania is deeply personal given the history of our country, it is rough for people to get excited for a party like others in Western Europe do). I would honestly wish our country was a Presidential republic rather than a Parliamentary one, at least then we would have a government voted by the majority of the electorate.

[Mike88]

I'm curious about that, the semi-presidential system in Romania is more a Presidential one or a parliamentary one? Normally in EU summits, it's the President that appears rather than the PM, right? Is there political will to change the system to a presidential one, like France?

I ask this, because I read many times the comparation between the Portuguese, French and Romanian semi-presidentialism, and it always seems to me, at least, that the Portuguese one is quite different from the French and Romanian, as the latter ones have much more power in the President than Portugal. The President in Portugal has no executive or legislative powers at all.

[RGM2609]

I'm curious about that, the semi-presidential system in Romania is more a Presidential one or a parliamentary one? Normally in EU summits, it's the President that appears rather than the PM, right? Is there political will to change the system to a presidential one, like France?

I ask this, because I read many times the comparation between the Portuguese, French and Romanian semi-presidentialism, and it always seems to me, at least, that the Portuguese one is quite different from the French and Romanian, as the latter ones have much more power in the President than Portugal. The President in Portugal has no executive or legislative powers at all.

It is a de-facto parliamentary system. The President only has very few powers, and most of those are ceremonial or inconsequential. The biggest difference from a country like Germany for example is that the President is elected by the people in extremely emotionally-charged elections. Thus, he is also a politician with a popular mandate and not just a figurehead, which prevents him from being totally ignored by the government or Parliament.

[Mike88]

I'm curious about that, the semi-presidential system in Romania is more a Presidential one or a parliamentary one? Normally in EU summits, it's the President that appears rather than the PM, right? Is there political will to change the system to a presidential one, like France?

I ask this, because I read many times the compilation between the Portuguese, French and Romanian semi-presidentialism, and it always seems to me, at least, that the Portuguese one is quite different from the French and Romanian, as the latter ones have much more power in the President than Portugal. The President in Portugal has no executive or legislative powers at all.

It is a defects parliamentary system. The President only has very few powers, and most of those are ceremonial or inconsequential. The biggest difference from a country like Germany for example is that the President is elected by the people in extremely emotionally-charged elections. Thus, he is also a politician with a popular mandate and not just a figurehead, which prevents him from being totally ignored by the government or Parliament.

Interesting, so it's basically very similar with my country. But, he has a voice in foreign affairs, right?

[RGM2609]

I'm curious about that, the semi-presidential system in Romania is more a Presidential one or a parliamentary one? Normally in EU summits, it's the President that appears rather than the PM, right? Is there political will to change the system to a presidential one, like France?

I ask this, because I read many times the compilation between the Portuguese, French and Romanian semi-presidentialism, and it always seems to me, at least, that the Portuguese one is quite different from the French and Romanian, as the latter ones have much more power in the President than Portugal. The President in Portugal has no executive or legislative powers at all.

It is a defects parliamentary system. The President only has very few powers, and most of those are ceremonial or inconsequential. The biggest difference from a country like Germany for example is that the President is elected by the people in extremely emotionally-charged elections. Thus, he is also a politician with a popular mandate and not just a figurehead, which prevents him from being totally ignored by the government or Parliament.

Interesting, so it's basically very similar with my country. But, he has a voice in foreign affairs, right?

He has a lot of ceremonial stuff to do in foreign affairs. But ultimately the Government still decides.

[Mike88]

IMAS poll:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1334080812413816832

[RGM2609]

Some other polls (most of the polling firms conducting these do not have great track records, but surprises can happen) -

IRSOP - PNL 33%, PSD 30%, USR 17%, PRO-ALDE 7%, UDMR 5%, PMP 3%

SOCIOPOL - PNL 29%, PSD 28%, USR 13%, AUR 7% (huh?), UDMR 6%, PRO-ALDE 6%, PMP 3%

PNL internal - PNL 35%, PSD 30%, USR 17%, PRO-ALDE 6%, UDMR 6%, PMP 5%

PMP internal - PSD 31%, PNL 28%, USR 21%, UDMR 6%, PMP 6%, PRO-ALDE 5%

Verifield - PNL 31%, PSD 22%, USR 17%, PRO-ALDE 9%, UDMR 5%, PMP 5%

So, as you can see, a broad range of outcomes is possible, but ultimately the government will probably be PNL-USR with the potential addition of PMP or UDMR if needed.

[Mike88]

Some other polls (most of the polling firms conducting these do not have great track records, but surprises can happen) -

IRSOP - PNL 33%, PSD 30%, USR 17%, PRO-ALDE 7%, UDMR 5%, PMP 3%

SOCIOPOL - PNL 29%, PSD 28%, USR 13%, AUR 7% (huh?), UDMR 6%, PRO-ALDE 6%, PMP 3%

PNL internal - PNL 35%, PSD 30%, USR 17%, PRO-ALDE 6%, UDMR 6%, PMP 5%

PMP internal - PSD 31%, PNL 28%, USR 21%, UDMR 6%, PMP 6%, PRO-ALDE 5%

Verifield - PNL 31%, PSD 22%, USR 17%, PRO-ALDE 9%, UDMR 5%, PMP 5%

So, as you can see, a broad range of outcomes is possible, but ultimately the government will probably be PNL-USR with the potential addition of PMP or UDMR if needed.

Yikes, just to think that a few months ago this was a forgone conclusion, PNL landslide, and now there's the possibility, low still, of PSD pulling ahead of PNL. Nonetheless, a center-right government is the most likely outcome.

PS: Weird I'm rooting for a PSD defeat, when I support the PSD in my country

[RGM2609]

Some other polls (most of the polling firms conducting these do not have great track records, but surprises can happen) -

IRSOP - PNL 33%, PSD 30%, USR 17%, PRO-ALDE 7%, UDMR 5%, PMP 3%

SOCIOPOL - PNL 29%, PSD 28%, USR 13%, AUR 7% (huh?), UDMR 6%, PRO-ALDE 6%, PMP 3%

PNL internal - PNL 35%, PSD 30%, USR 17%, PRO-ALDE 6%, UDMR 6%, PMP 5%

PMP internal - PSD 31%, PNL 28%, USR 21%, UDMR 6%, PMP 6%, PRO-ALDE 5%

Verifield - PNL 31%, PSD 22%, USR 17%, PRO-ALDE 9%, UDMR 5%, PMP 5%

So, as you can see, a broad range of outcomes is possible, but ultimately the government will probably be PNL-USR with the potential addition of PMP or UDMR if needed.

Yikes, just to think that a few months ago this was a forgone conclusion, PNL landslide, and now there's the possibility, low still, of PSD pulling ahead of PNL. Nonetheless, a center-right government is the most likely outcome.

PS: Weird I'm rooting for a PSD defeat, when I support the PSD in my country

PSD pulling ahead would not shock me at this point tbh. Probably the only thing which has prevented them from doing so already is the fact that PRO-ALDE, AUR and a lot of smaller parties are taking some votes away from it.

[RGM2609]

In case you were wondering what is up with this AUR party that SOCIOPOL shows above the threshold and that is gaining visibility online, here is your answer -

The Alliance for the Unity of Romanians appeared in 2019 when the activist for uniting Romania and Moldova George Simion decided to enter politics and formed a nationalist party. What kind of party is this? Well, it is enough to look at its co-chair, a man named Claudiu Tarziu, who founded a neo-fascist newspaper. What are his beliefs? For starters, he is a big fan of Corneliu Zelea Codreanu, the leader of the fascist Iron Guard during the 1930s, who is also guilty of killing or torturing thousands of people, mostly Jews. He is also a denier of the Holocaust, believing it never happened and is actually a fake theory made up by Elie Wiesel to attack the cultural values of Romanians. He is also a fan of President Trump, congratulating him repeatedly for the courage to promote Nationalist and Christian values.

Another high-ranking member of AUR is a lawyer named Diana Sosoaca, She is the self-proclaimed Guarding Angel of the priests who refuse to apply rules against the pandemic. She has also organized protests against masks and other restrictions. When a pilgrimage to Saint Parascheva in Iasi was forbidden, she led a crowd of hundreds in attacking the Police and forcing their entrance. When the Health Secretary visited a hospital, she was also there accusing him of conspiring to kill children with disinfectants. Her latest act of bravery was trying to convince the courts to allow the infamous denier Teodosie to organize a pilgrimage at the fake cave of Saint Andrew. She failed, but it did not matter anyway, as the pilgrimage was still organized and she attended it herself.

If you think this is bad...some other parties also put QAnon believers on their lists. Anyway, I hope it is now clear what AUR is and who they are taking votes away from.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

If you think this is bad...some other parties also put QAnon believers on their lists. Anyway, I hope it is now clear what AUR is and who they are taking votes away from.

Even traditional batsh!t Romanian nationalism is being slowly washed away by the waves of Americanisation. What is the world coming to?

[RGM2609]

If you think this is bad...some other parties also put QAnon believers on their lists. Anyway, I hope it is now clear what AUR is and who they are taking votes away from.

Even traditional batsh!t Romanian nationalism is being slowly washed away by the waves of Americanisation. What is the world coming to?

Exactly. There is even a party that claims to be Trumps personal brigade.

[RGM2609]

New poll out from a PSD-friendly firm named IRES - PSD 35%, PNL 32%, USR 16%, PRO-ALDE 7%, PMP 3%, UDMR 3%, AUR 3%

[Mike88]

New poll out from a PSD-friendly firm named IRES - PSD 35%, PNL 32%, USR 16%, PRO-ALDE 7%, PMP 3%, UDMR 3%, AUR 3%

They were quite spot on in 2016, however.

[RGM2609]

New poll out from a PSD-friendly firm named IRES - PSD 35%, PNL 32%, USR 16%, PRO-ALDE 7%, PMP 3%, UDMR 3%, AUR 3%

They were quite spot on in 2016, however.

It is a long story, but in 2016 their owner was Deputy Prime Minister under Dacian Ciolos. Now he is a high-ranking member of PSD. Anyway, that is not to say that this result should be ignored, far from it. My worries about this election, already pretty big, have grown after this.

[RGM2609]

Anyone who has any questions or predictions about this? I have been trying to come up with a prediction, I am still undecided as to whether PNL or PSD is going to get the first place (I am leaning towards PSD tbh). But it is clear that the next government will be a center-right one between PNL and USR.

[Mike88]

Not very good with predictions, but low turnout seems to benefit the PSD, right? And, because of the circumstances of this race, turnout will likely be very low, 35-40%, so here's my take:

34.1% PSD
29.0% PNL
17.7% USR+PLUS
  6.2% PRO+ALDE
  4.0% PMP
  3.9% AUR
  3.5% UDMR
  1.6% Others

36.7% Turnout

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Anyone who has any questions or predictions about this?

How much does emigration factor into the very low turnout stats?

[RGM2609]

Anyone who has any questions or predictions about this?

How much does emigration factor into the very low turnout stats?

A lot. Probably only 70% of the people on the electoral lists are actually in the country. But there are very generous procedures with regard to voting for people abroad, and almost a million of them have voted in the last presidential election.

[RGM2609]

While the vote process will begin in Romania tomorrow at 7 AM, almost 64k people have already voted abroad, and the number continues to climb minute by minute. However, in a classic 2020 problem, of 39k mail-in ballots, only 21k got to Bucharest in due time. Now no one knows what to do about the rest of them, who were received by the authorities after the deadline and had to be invalidated. There is a lot of anger on social media and within the communities abroad about these thousands of ballots, and the best the authorities could apparently do is to tell those people with invalidated ballots to try and vote in person (polling stations are probably hundreds of miles away is they chose to go through the complicated procedures required to vote absentee). Oof.

[Mike88]

While the vote process will begin in Romania tomorrow at 7 AM, almost 64k people have already voted abroad, and the number continues to climb minute by minute. However, in a classic 2020 problem, of 39k mail-in ballots, only 21k got to Bucharest in due time. Now no one knows what to do about the rest of them, who were received by the authorities after the deadline and had to be invalidated. There is a lot of anger on social media and within the communities abroad about these thousands of ballots, and the best the authorities could apparently do is to tell those people with invalidated ballots to try and vote in person (polling stations are probably hundreds of miles away is they chose to go through the complicated procedures required to vote absentee). Oof.

Not surprising, at least for me. Here in Portugal, the last general election was chaos in the overseas mail voting. The envelopes were too small to fit the ballots, voters didn't understand what to sent to prove the ballot was valid and many voters only received the ballots months after the elections, the most outrageous situations were in South Africa and Venezuela. And, in next January presidential elections, overseas voters are forbidden to vote by mail because the Constitution says that the election of the President must be by in person voting.

Now, going back to Romania, overseas voters can vote today and tomorrow, right?

[RGM2609]

While the vote process will begin in Romania tomorrow at 7 AM, almost 64k people have already voted abroad, and the number continues to climb minute by minute. However, in a classic 2020 problem, of 39k mail-in ballots, only 21k got to Bucharest in due time. Now no one knows what to do about the rest of them, who were received by the authorities after the deadline and had to be invalidated. There is a lot of anger on social media and within the communities abroad about these thousands of ballots, and the best the authorities could apparently do is to tell those people with invalidated ballots to try and vote in person (polling stations are probably hundreds of miles away is they chose to go through the complicated procedures required to vote absentee). Oof.

Not surprising, at least for me. Here in Portugal, the last general election was chaos in the overseas mail voting. The envelopes were too small to fit the ballots, voters didn't understand what to sent to prove the ballot was valid and many voters only received the ballots months after the elections, the most outrageous situations were in South Africa and Venezuela. And, in next January presidential elections, overseas voters are forbidden to vote by mail because the Constitution says that the election of the President must be by in person voting.

Now, going back to Romania, overseas voters can vote today and tomorrow, right?

Yes.

[Mike88]

While the vote process will begin in Romania tomorrow at 7 AM, almost 64k people have already voted abroad, and the number continues to climb minute by minute. However, in a classic 2020 problem, of 39k mail-in ballots, only 21k got to Bucharest in due time. Now no one knows what to do about the rest of them, who were received by the authorities after the deadline and had to be invalidated. There is a lot of anger on social media and within the communities abroad about these thousands of ballots, and the best the authorities could apparently do is to tell those people with invalidated ballots to try and vote in person (polling stations are probably hundreds of miles away is they chose to go through the complicated procedures required to vote absentee). Oof.

Not surprising, at least for me. Here in Portugal, the last general election was chaos in the overseas mail voting. The envelopes were too small to fit the ballots, voters didn't understand what to sent to prove the ballot was valid and many voters only received the ballots months after the elections, the most outrageous situations were in South Africa and Venezuela. And, in next January presidential elections, overseas voters are forbidden to vote by mail because the Constitution says that the election of the President must be by in person voting.

Now, going back to Romania, overseas voters can vote today and tomorrow, right?

Yes.

The more than 900,000 overseas ballots in the 2020 Presidential election will not be reached this time around, right? The number will be much lower.

[RGM2609]

While the vote process will begin in Romania tomorrow at 7 AM, almost 64k people have already voted abroad, and the number continues to climb minute by minute. However, in a classic 2020 problem, of 39k mail-in ballots, only 21k got to Bucharest in due time. Now no one knows what to do about the rest of them, who were received by the authorities after the deadline and had to be invalidated. There is a lot of anger on social media and within the communities abroad about these thousands of ballots, and the best the authorities could apparently do is to tell those people with invalidated ballots to try and vote in person (polling stations are probably hundreds of miles away is they chose to go through the complicated procedures required to vote absentee). Oof.

Not surprising, at least for me. Here in Portugal, the last general election was chaos in the overseas mail voting. The envelopes were too small to fit the ballots, voters didn't understand what to sent to prove the ballot was valid and many voters only received the ballots months after the elections, the most outrageous situations were in South Africa and Venezuela. And, in next January presidential elections, overseas voters are forbidden to vote by mail because the Constitution says that the election of the President must be by in person voting.

Now, going back to Romania, overseas voters can vote today and tomorrow, right?

Yes.

The more than 900,000 overseas ballots in the 2020 Presidential election will not be reached this time around, right? The number will be much lower.

No, it will certainly not be reached. The first day is almost over in most places and it did not even reach 100.000. (Even as in the last day more people vote, 900.000 is still impossible)