Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)

[CumbrianLefty]

Petre Roman - there's a blast from the past all right.

Though hasn't he supported right wing parties/candidates in more recent years?

[Beagle]

Alright so in my post about PSD I was basically saying that it is a party stuck in the past, with nothing to offer for the present or future. This is shown once again by their strategy in Bucharest. Mayor Gabriela Firea, because of whom the capital city (I repeat, the capital city) periodically remains without hot water (or even water at all), has proposed a rather...interesting list for the City Council. The first candidate on it is the former Prime Minister (in the early 1990s) Petre Roman, and it continues with football players who were famous in the late 1990s. This list looks as if it were taken from 20 years ago, and many joked that it was sent by fax and confirmed by telex. It is very clear who she is trying to get out and vote with this attempt of a list - the people who are by now at least 55 years old and will vote for the gold, old days represented by their idols. Quite a good move if you ask me, Bucharest is becoming more and more dominated by old people, especially when the youth/liberals do not feel motivated enough to vote (some could not do it anyway, as they are coming from around the country and still have their official residence in their natal areas)

That is a good joke! I suppose the energy from the protests has fizzled out a bit, but haven't the youth/middle aged crowd learned their lesson from 2016 election about what happens when you let only the pensioners vote?

[RGM2609]

Petre Roman - there's a blast from the past all right.

Though hasn't he supported right wing parties/candidates in more recent years?

The truth probably is that ever since he stopped being relevant in the early 2000s, he supported parties willing to give him something in return.

[RGM2609]

Alright so in my post about PSD I was basically saying that it is a party stuck in the past, with nothing to offer for the present or future. This is shown once again by their strategy in Bucharest. Mayor Gabriela Firea, because of whom the capital city (I repeat, the capital city) periodically remains without hot water (or even water at all), has proposed a rather...interesting list for the City Council. The first candidate on it is the former Prime Minister (in the early 1990s) Petre Roman, and it continues with football players who were famous in the late 1990s. This list looks as if it were taken from 20 years ago, and many joked that it was sent by fax and confirmed by telex. It is very clear who she is trying to get out and vote with this attempt of a list - the people who are by now at least 55 years old and will vote for the gold, old days represented by their idols. Quite a good move if you ask me, Bucharest is becoming more and more dominated by old people, especially when the youth/liberals do not feel motivated enough to vote (some could not do it anyway, as they are coming from around the country and still have their official residence in their natal areas)

That is a good joke! I suppose the energy from the protests has fizzled out a bit, but haven't the youth/middle aged crowd learned their lesson from 2016 election about what happens when you let only the pensioners vote?

They did for the most part, which is why Firea is highly likely to lose. However -
1. Many of them do not officially reside in Bucharest, but in their natal areas, as the process to change official residences is pretty complicated. For them to vote in this election (as it is a local one), they would need some kind of a visa for which it is necessary to stay hours in line at Population Registry (PSD was not particularly interested to ease the process), so it is not just necessary to simply go to the polls.
2. Firea is actually pretty charismatic, and does not have the distasteful arrogance of most PSD leaders who were capable of mobilizing thousands against them by simply opening their mouth.
3. The problems faced by Bucharest led for a lot of people in the said categories to flee the city in favor of Transylvania, so pensioners are actually a large group as share of the population.
4. The right wing vote is split once again, as former President Basescu is also running.

Alright so given her incompetence and political situation, Firea is still likely to lose despite the factors mentioned above. However, mobilizing the old people is a good idea, as they are the only group that still supports her, and she is unlikely to get support from anywhere else.

Edit: Forgot to mention. Many pensioners are covid-19 deniers, which obviously makes them more likely to vote

[RGM2609]

Alright so since nothing of note has happened today but I felt like posting something anyway, I will do a brief summary of the candidates in Bucharest and their career. Thankfully, there are only 7. Usually, there are over 15 candidates. I have no idea why this drop in their number, but at least there will be a lot less noise pollution. They are listed by the likelihood of a victory, in my view -

1. MP Nicusor Dan, supported by PNL and USR-PLUS. This is the third time he is running, as he also ran in 2012, when he finished third with 9%, and in 2016, when he finished second with 31%. He is a mathematician and civic activist, as he spent years fighting, largely successfully, against unlawful urban development. Following his very strong showing in the 2016 election, he formed USR based on his organization in Bucharest. However, he resigned from the leadership of the party following an internal war related to the referendum on gay marriage that he lost. But he managed to retain his popularity in Bucharest at least, so the 2 main anti-PSD parties felt forced to endorse him in order to prevent another 4 years of Firea. And now...

2. Mayor Gabriela Firea, supported by PSD and some minor parties. She was a journalist at the beginning of her career in the early 1990s, but made a name for herself in the 2000s, when she hosted talk shows at the television owned by pro-PSD oligarch Dan Voiculescu. She stopped touting PSD talking points on live TV and decided to do so in Parliament in 2012, when she was elected to the Senate. In the presidential election, she was selected to be the spokesperson for candidate Victor Ponta, a time during which she made a gross attack on Klaus Iohannis, accusing him of not being a real man and Romanian because he does not have children (Iohannis is genetically incapable of doing that). She was elected Mayor by the pensioners in 2016 and since then she was widely criticized for the shockingly bad traffic, the frequent lack of hot water and heat, spending millions on Churches and the so-called electoral charities as well as for other such things.

3. Former President and MEP Traian Basescu, backed by PMP. Attempting to write a full biography for him would be exhausting, however what is relevant to know here is that he was Mayor of Bucharest before he became President, he is unofficially presiding over PMP, a small right-wing conservative party and he is now trying to revive his political career. Given that he is not exactly popular to say the least and that he is running from a single-digits party, a victory is unlikely, however he may take enough votes away from the right wing to ensure another term of Firea. Something that is also relevant - a disastrous showing will end any chance of him getting back into the main scene and would also devastate PMP before the parliamentary election.

4. Former PM, Former Senate Chairman and MP Calin Popescu Tariceanu, backed by ALDE. Ugh. He might be one of the worst politicians post-Revolution. He is leading a small PSD satellite party which has been declining following its relentless support for the Dragnea Governments and its overthrow of the Dancila Government, which left it dissatisfying all people. The rise of ProRomania is also hurting it, and ALDE is very likely to be out of the Parliament in December. This run is just a desperate attempt to save the party, especially after negotiations with PSD for a joint list failed.

5. General Ioan Sirbu, backed by ProRomania. A dark horse candidate, who was a member of PNL until recently and occupied high ranking positions in the military hospitals, he is only running because Ponta decided not to risk getting in himself. His notoriety, as well as victory odds, do not exist.

There are also 2 candidates of minor parties I have never even heard of before, but I will mention them briefly -

6. Ilan Laufer, backed by the Social Liberal Platform and the Force of National Identity. Former PSD member who has been Minister and then advisor to Viorica Dancila, he has meanwhile left PSD and formed a new party.

7. Viorel Catarama, backed by the Movement of Romanian Patriots. He is a billionaire that keeps announcing candidacies for random high-ranking jobs. He always ends up either aborting the campaign or losing with less than 1% of the vote.

[Beagle]

I was reading up on Tariceanu, who I agree is one of your worst politicians, and wanted to confirm that my impression that ALDE is indistinguishable from him is correct? In general, other than PSD and PNL, is any of the parties non-personalist, i.e. it would get similar electoral results from a broadly similar coalition of voters even if its leader would drop dead tomorrow?

And speaking of dropping dead, I was wondering what happened to the PRM voters - I know the party still gets marginal support, as does PRU, and obviously PSD has adopted a lot of nationalist rhetoric - but by and large the 'far right' sector in Romanian politics seems oddly empty lately.

[RGM2609]

I was reading up on Tariceanu, who I agree is one of your worst politicians, and wanted to confirm that my impression that ALDE is indistinguishable from him is correct? In general, other than PSD and PNL, is any of the parties non-personalist, i.e. it would get similar electoral results from a broadly similar coalition of voters even if its leader would drop dead tomorrow?

And speaking of dropping dead, I was wondering what happened to the PRM voters - I know the party still gets marginal support, as does PRU, and obviously PSD has adopted a lot of nationalist rhetoric - but by and large the 'far right' sector in Romanian politics seems oddly empty lately.

Well, in regards to the question on the parties - USR and UDMR would probably get similar results without their leaders. Their voters are supporting them for reasons completely unrelated to their leaders. In theory, PMP would also do fine without its formal leader, but it would have a hard time without its informal one. But yeah, ALDE and ProRomania are entirely dependent on their leaders. If they would be gone, their members would probably just return to PSD.

On PRM voters - most of the older ones died by now. Some young fanatics grew up and dropped nationalism. The rest are supporting PSD, as do most of its former politicians. But far right nationalism, or national-communism, has a tendency to backfire spectacularly on the ones who openly use it. The majority of Romania wants a more modern, more liberal society and rhetoric against that can mobilize it to the polls in great numbers.

Also, there is news from PSD these days. A Congress will happen in a few days, and the current leader Marcel Ciolacu will probably easily dismantle a challenge from the Finance Minister under Viorica Dancila, Eugen Teodorovici. And many in PSD Bucharest are not that happy about Firea taking off politicians from the list and replacing them with public personalities. I can only imagine what Iliescu thought when he saw Roman on that list lol

[RGM2609]

Alright so PSD and its allies are desperately trying to send the Orban Government packing, however the way they are doing it may be stopped by the Constitutional Court. Namely, they are trying to propose the motion in an extraordinary session, a thing that is probably forbidden under current laws. However, the Constitutional Court has gone a long way to satisfy PSD in the past, such as when it ruled that the signatures necessary to run for office can not be verified, only counted (i.e. you can just xerox them) or when it deemed mandatory isolation of covid-19 cases as being unconstitutional. Anyway, it is clear that PSD is afraid because of the coming elections and are willing to do anything to hurt their opponents.

Now, on another subject - Former President Basescu is running to be the Mayor of Bucharest, and his odds have been creating a lot of fierce debate in Romania. Given that this is very important for the crucial Bucharest election in September, I will try to tell you how likely his victory is -

Many have argued that his victory in 2004 is proof that he is going to win again. And the population is still the same - 2.2 million, just as it was in 2004. However, about 1.1 million people have died since then or migrated to other towns in Romania or to foreign countries. And about 1.1 million people were born or came from the countryside to Bucharest since 2004. So the city is not the same. For the new people, he is probably the face of the 2008 recession or just another politician who lectures them on TV. And the ones who were alive and in Bucharest when Basescu was running for Mayor just have other priorities now. 16 years is a long time. That is probably the biggest obstacle that Basescu faces in his quest for the Mayorship.

On concrete numbers, PMP has about 45.000 voters in Bucharest. When Basescu ran at the top of their ticket, that number rose to 70.000. With this number, Basescu would get about 12%. Victory is out of reach. The lowest number of votes with which the Mayorship was won was around 250.000 by Firea in 2016. Even if Basescu got thrice as many votes then the data suggest, victory would still be improbable.

Comparing the 70.000 votes Basescu likely has with his opponents, Firea and Nicusor Dan who both have over 200.000, shows that a victory by him is highly unlikely. There are not many people disinterested in politics that could be brought out to vote by him. I doubt there are many undecided, given that Firea is a very polarizing figure and the contrast between her and her main opponent is very clear.

In conclusion, Basescu just does not have the numbers to do business. PMP is way, way too small to elect a Mayor on its own, his golden era is a distant memory for most and the no-second-round system makes the electorate hesitant to vote for unlikely winners. However, the most important effect of his candidacy is already showing up - Firea, PSD and their allies have already started to promote the idea that he is over performing. Polls by PSD-friendly institutions are giving him around 20%, with that number likely to grow as the campaign proceeds, thus tricking thousands to vote for Basescu, thinking he is the most likely candidate to defeat the Mayor.

[PSOL]

Continue on on what you want to do, not on the demands of others.

[RGM2609]

As we spoke of Tariceanu a few days ago, I should let you know that he became a laughing stock a few days ago as he failed to say the price of public transportation in Bucharest in a talk show even after bragging that he will revitalize it for minutes beforehand. Now, in another interview, he claimed that he never liked to depend on anything as he is an independent spirit, which is why he did not know the price, once again causing widespread mockery.

Anyway, today a PSD Congress will take place to finally elect a permanent leadership after Viorica Dancila resigned in November. I will give you live updates if anything of note happens (which I doubt) but I will post something at the end of the day about it.

[RGM2609]

I have started to write long posts about the perspectives of each party, at least in my view. I lost the PNL one but I will rewrite it sometime soon. Meanwhile, the one on PSD is on the thread a few posts back if you want to read it. Anyway, now on to USR-PLUS, the third party -

Certain parties exist to represent a socio-economic class, and they have the guarantee of a base to rely on no matter what. This is why PRM and to an extent PUNR gained seats for years regardless of their accomplishments while PNTCD/CDR did not get back into Parliament in 2000 despite winning the 1996 election.

USR-PLUS falls into the first category, and this is why they are the simplest party to analyse. They are the party of the post-industrial society and of the Romanians abroad who got to know how live really is in the West. Its evolution is being constantly influenced by these 2 groups rather than by itself and its decisions, and is being fed by PNL having a human resources policy that is inadequate to current times causing it to seem to some as a failed clone of PSD, by PNL and PSD being unofficial allies in a lot of counties outside Transylvania, by political leaders in the 2 parties being anything but charismatic and dynamic (or at least some), by corruption, by the absence of a socially center-left party, by the Orthodox Church being held sacred by all other parties, by an unreformed state etc. Its decisions are having a much lower effect on its own fate than the evolution of the aforementioned factors.

Now the party is at about 18-19% in the opinion polls and in the past elections. Much lower then the historic average of parties like PSD or PDL. But on the other hand, PRM has only once gotten more. PMP and ALDE, both led by very well known politicians with extensive careers, only have a third of that at best. Politicians who are said to have defined decades of Romanian politics and who have been permanently on TV for the past 15 years can not hope to get even close to USR (I mean, Vadim is dead, but you get my point). However, USRPLUS is in front of the toughest political test yet - local elections, the only one it has not passed through yet. These elections will not be about the brand of the party but mostly about the reputation and energy of its members. People who are not living currently in their home areas tend to vote with USRPLUS for obvious reasons, but will not be able to do so this time. Its problems may have been partially solved by an unexpected gift from PNL, which dumbly accepted hundreds of PSD mayors within its ranks. Now, the narrative of USR related to the old parties is once again confirmed thanks to this move.

The local elections also expose the only major mistake that the party keeps making - the tendency to focus on internal problems too much. The first half of 2020 has been spent mostly on deciding things like the fate of the party founder, the relationship between the party leader and the broader leadership, between the broader leadership and the local offices and so on. The result is now everyone is rushing to restore contact with local communities because of the time that was lost.

Now, on medium and long term, USR-PLUS is poised to spend the next years as a secondary partner to PNL, unless something radical happens between now and December. Until the mega-election year 2024, it will have to answer critical questions about itself and its path forward. There is also the danger of its base running out. The education system is built to create people perfect for the 1960s, for now it has been too ineffective but maybe it can get better at it. And besides, how can they get to 30% from the 15-20 they currently have. They need to give good answers to these questions, as 2024 is an year in which all 4 kinds of elections happen. And then, its fate could get decided.

(Alright, I hope you enjoyed this post. I will post about the PSD Congress later today and then I may take a break as I feel like I am overwhelming the thread.)

Have a nice day!

[RGM2609]

Unsurprisingly, the incumbent PSD leader and Speaker of the Chamber Marcel Ciolacu was elected with 90% of the vote while his opponent, former Finance Minister Eugen Teodorovici, got 6%. He will lead the party until after the Parliamentary elections, when a new Congress will happen.

He gave the classic speech that PSD gives after losing elections, namely putting all of the blame on the former leaders, saying the opponents are even worse and promising changes. I doubt anyone believes it at this point and it alienates the people who stayed with the party but maybe I am wrong.

He proceeded to contradict his entire speech by proposing Gabriela Firea, the Bucharest Mayor and Sorin Grindeanu, former Prime Minister who gave the famous Emergency Order to prevent Dragnea from going to jail and mobilized a million people to protests as his Deputies. The entire leadership was stacked with local barons and controversial figures.

[CumbrianLefty]

He gave the classic speech that PSD gives after losing elections, namely putting all of the blame on the former leaders, saying the opponents are even worse and promising changes.

Tbf isn't that the stock speech of most new party leaders after an election loss

[RGM2609]

He gave the classic speech that PSD gives after losing elections, namely putting all of the blame on the former leaders, saying the opponents are even worse and promising changes.

Tbf isn't the stock speech of most new party leaders after an election loss

True, but they have to give it so often that it became a sort of symbol of the party lol. Also there are a lot of angry articles on the Russian propaganda site Sputnik against Ciolacu because of him going against Dragnea

[RGM2609]

A very weird incident has happened today in Bucharest, as PSD disguised some members as transexuals volunteering for USR and had them spread posters in the city. Obviously they were harassed by the overwhelmingly transphobic population in the city and then the video got spread all over social media. USR has threatened to sue PSD over this.

Another weird thing which scandalized the public opinion were leaders of the Police secretely meeting with members of a criminal gang to ensure a safe funeral for their dead leader, at least according to them. The anger from the people over this keeting which was widely deemed as below the dignity of police officers was big, and even the President had to address it.

And as usual, the local elections cause very...interesting candidates to show up, including many meme candidates (Firea is probably also one of them...).

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

A very weird incident has happened today in Bucharest, as PSD disguised some members as transexuals volunteering for USR and had them spread posters in the city. Obviously they were harassed by the overwhelmingly transphobic population in the city and then the video got spread all over social media. USR has threatened to sue PSD over this.

Another weird thing which scandalized the public opinion were leaders of the Police secretely meeting with members of a criminal gang to ensure a safe funeral for their dead leader, at least according to them. The anger from the people over this keeting which was widely deemed as below the dignity of police officers was big, and even the President had to address it.

And as usual, the local elections cause very...interesting candidates to show up, including many meme candidates (Firea is probably also one of them...).

Do you have any link for that? Not that I do not believe (I mean, this is Romania, Dragnea claimed that Soros wanted to assassinate him so I guess everything is possible) but I want to share with somebody.

[RGM2609]

Alright so I have written posts about the future of the 3 largest parties and today I will like to discuss 2 of the smaller ones - PMP and ALDE. Enjoy!

The 2 parties, despite being on opposite sides of the political spectrum, share a surprising ammount of simmilarities, beyond the fact that they are both proposing their founders for the Bucharest Mayorship. Both of them were created mostly by the former PDL getting closer with and eventually joining PNL, claiming that they are the true right wing. Both of them are usually around the crucial 5% and gain about 400.000 votes. Both are led, officially or unofficially by politicians who were stars in the 2000s but have since lost their relevance. And both are associated with their leader above all, and failed to produce other well-known politicians. In a way, they are an element of the past stuck in 2020.

And they are both facing a crucial fight for their future in December, as any score under 5% would sent them straight to the dustbin of history. PMP is probably better positioned to succeed. It has more experience, it has never failed to reach 5%, the parliamentary elections always happen under lower turnout (despite them being the more important ones) allowing PMP to get in the Parliament with its usual number of votes. It also seem to be rising from election to election lately. The organizational experience of former PDL members is crucial, maybe even more crucial than Basescu. The existence of this party fascinates me, as it seems to have a discreet but certain presence in every city or village despite its message or identity being either unclear or totally shared with PNL or even PSD.

On the other hand, ALDE is unlikely to pass the threshold again. During the last election for the European Parliament, it got 4%, and lost about 15% of the voters in 2016. While this would not have been a huge development on its own, there was a certain widespread shock given the polls before the election either gave it high single digits or double digits. This was not a singular phenomena, as polls always seem to overestimate it, giving it 10% before the campaign and have it collapse at half of that during it. But now, not even polls are optimistic about the party, always rating it at abysmal levels. It seems that whatever supporters it still had by 2019 have since reorientated to Victor Ponta. Unless Tariceanu has a truly stellar performance in Bucgarest, ALDE is probably done. As I said before, them leaving PSD only to unexplicably withdraw Tariceanu's long-anticipated presidential run was the worst of both worlds, and it left everyone unhappy.

So ALDE is heading towards its demise, but PMP's situation is more interesting. It will probably get in the Parliament again, but it also needs PNL and USR to be unable to form a coalition on their own so they are forced to have PMP in the government. On the other hand, it can't attack them too harshly or they might have some other minor party (UDMR) join them (given Basescu's run, this can happen either way). Yeah, it is complicated, but also pointless. Ideologically PMP is a smaller PNL, and only Basescu's ego is preventing them from merging.

[RGM2609]

Hi everyone, so today the long-expected motion of no confidence in the Orban government introduced by PSD had to be voted on. No other party or parliamentary group wanted to vote for it and all mass boycotted it, and PSD&satellites combined with Ponta's party, ProRomania, had 233 MPs, exactly the number required to pass such a motion.

On the day of voting, following 3 hours of delays and failed attempts at starting proceedings, there were 226 MPs in the Chamber, even those barely gathered together, and it is unknown whether the number includes some MPs from other parties who were present but would not vote. Thus the quorum was not met and the meeting ended. It is hard to overestimate the consequences of this very public failure, as it was shown to everyone PSD lost control over an institution that it easily dominated and that it was isolated in the political scene, not to mention the ridicule of failing after so many threats of taking down the government. A not-insignificant number of PSD MPs absented, some being hardcore Dragnea loyalists and some fearing losing their seats in the next legislature. The latter group may substantially increase after this failure and Ciolacu's threat to submit more motions is laughable given the context.

Also a new IMAS poll shows even more bad news for PSD - 34% PNL, 21% PSD, 18% USRPLUS, 11% ProRomania, 6% UDMR, 4% PMP, 2% ALDE, 1% PPU

[RGM2609]

How much the results of the local elections indicate the ones of the parliamentary ones

On September 27th, Romanians will be able to vote on 4 different ballots. The ones for Mayor and County Chairman are very heavily personalized. On the other hand, the ones for Local Council and County Council are based upon a list. The elections on Local Council can include, mostly for voters in rural areas and small towns, relatives, friends or other people they know on the lists. However, on the lists for the County Council, the notoriety of those on them is almost always equaling zero. This is a party vote.

It could be expected for big variations to appear between the County Council elections and the parliamentary elections. Nothing prevents voters to select the party of the Mayor candidate they like on all 4 ballots and to then switch to their preferred party at the parliamentary. However, that is often not the case.

With some exceptions, the most voted 3 parties for County Councils were the most voted ones for parliamentary elections too. That will likely be the case in 2020 too. The exceptions were when a party (FSN) literally broke apart between the elections (1992), the second and third-placed parties joined in an alliance (2004) and the difference between the first and second parties was smaller than 1% (2008). Neither seems likely to happen this year, as such the places the parties get now will likely be the same ones they get in December.

There is a widespread myth that the number of Mayors decides who wins the Parliamentary; that is false. In 1992, Roman's and Iliescu's parties had five times as many mayors as the CDR (combined), but did not even get twice as many votes. In 2004, PSD won 1700 mayors and PNL-PD only 800, yet the results of the Parliamentary were close. In 2008, PSD and PDL were statistically tied despite PSD having 1100 mayors and PDL only 900. (sorry if this got confusing)

The pattern shows that PSD almost always dominates when it comes to the number of Mayors, but that does not always translates to much bigger scores at the crucial parliamentary elections. That is mostly because their Mayors are largely elected in depleted and small rural areas with an underwhelming impact on the nationwide result. Sometimes, over 50 rural areas/villages have less voters than 3 cities. Thus, the number of Mayors is misleading.

[RGM2609]

So the Breaking News in Romania right now is an accident had by the Transportation Minister while his car was driving on the opposite side of the road to avoid a long line. Thankfully no one died, however it brought back painful memories of the death of a policemen in 2015 while being a part of then-Deputy PM Gabriel Oprea's unnecessary motorcade which drew huge national backlash. President Iohannis dismissed the comparison during a press conference, however this a part of a larger pattern of high-ranking officials openly ignoring laws, such as speed limits or no-smoking-in-public-buildings, for their own comfort.

[RGM2609]

Following the deeply weird video involving disguised LGBT members campaigning for USR-PLUS, the press has finally gotten to the bottom of it and we now know who planned it.

- After the national backlash, the video got deleted from Facebook, where it was mass spread by a man named Cristinel Iliescu, a PSD activist from the 2nd District of Bucharest. The heads and candidates of the district organization claimed they had no connection with it and forced the rogue activist to write a message of apology. He did so, and also accused PNL of sending it to him.

- Not long afterwards, another video started being spread on Facebook, likely filmed in the same place, of a homosexual celebrity declaring his support for USR PLUS because they would legalize gay marriage. The celebrity, when contacted by the press, admitted to being paid for it but refused to say by who. The video was spread by an obscure online newspaper owned by Victor Nicolae Bogdan, the chairman of the organization of the Pro-Europe Party of the Roma in the 6th District of Bucharest. He is apparently a confidante of the PSD Mayor of the same district, as he even owns another newspaper together with him and routinely does party activism using the media he coordinates.

- Another connection between the Pro-Europe Party of the Roma and the videos is another activist that mass spread them, who ran for the mayorship of the 5th District a couple of years ago from the same party. He is close to the media owner mentioned above. When asked by the media, he accused PSD of being behind it.

- Yet another small party involved with the spreading of homophobic videos is the Romanian Ecologist Party, which for the past few years has become more and more of a PSD satellite. The current head of its organization in the 5th District (the one which spread the videos) was an advisor to Viorica Dancila and also a cousin of the leader of the Pro-Europe Party of the Roma, who denied any involvement. However it seems like the Pro-Europe Party of the Roma has been the unifying factor around all of these homophobic incidents.

- The Pro-Europe Party of the Roma has long been perceived as a satellite of PSD, and before 2008 it was called the Social Democratic Party of the Roma.

(only informing you of this because of boredom and some interest towards LGBT rights in Romania. Sorry if it was irrelevant)

[PSOL]

No, it’s quite interesting. Exactly how many satellites does PSD have?

[RGM2609]

No, it’s quite interesting. Exactly how many satellites does PSD have?

PSD has been obsessed, to an unhealthy degree, of getting as many small parties, of various self-proclaimed ideologies, around it probably to create the impression of a "national unity" sort of movement as well as use their officials/resources. I would estimate their number at about 50, however I will give you a list of the most visible ones. For the record, I will not list Ponta's ProRomania as a satellite given its unusually high poll numbers even as it is one in some ways:

1. Tariceanu's ALDE
2. PPUSL, a party quite literally owned by pro-PSD oligarch Dan Voiculescu who owns one of the biggest news televisions in Romania.
3. PRU, a party quite literally owned by fugitive Sebastian Ghita who owns another very watched news television. It's role has also been to spread a very nationalist and xenophobic message so the population gets used to it before PSD starts openly doing it too.
4. All or most of the 17 minorities party other than UDMR who are legally entitled to a Representative in the Parliament (among which the Pro-Europe Party of the Roma)
5. The one which upsets me the most - PNTCD, a historical party and the head of anti-Iliescu resistance in the 1990s, the party of legendary figures.
6. The Romanian Ecologist Party, which has always been around and became close to PSD in recent years
7. UNPR, the once-dead party of Gabriel Oprea who was mentioned in a post above and now desperately wants to become relevant again.
8. The National Force Party, formed by former ALDE members who stood by the Viorica Dancila Government after Tariceanu left it
9. Romanian Nationhood Party, formed by a former PSD member who promoted conspiracy theories so outrageous that even his party was forced to kick him out
10. Romanian Socialist Party, a self-proclaimed communist party which does not really have a presence in the country but is quite active on social media and eager to attack PNL and Iohannis

I will write more of them once I remember them. Many of its satellites are just local parties however.

[RGM2609]

On September 27th Romanians will go to the polls to elect their local representatives. While this involves thousands and thousands of individual races, as usual the attention of the nation and the media is focused on the fight for the Mayorship of Bucharest and its 6 districts. Here are the races with a brief summary and a rating -

Bucharest Mayor - Mayor Gabriela Firea (PSD) vs Nicusor Dan (USR-PNL) vs Traian Basescu (PMP)
Rating - leaning towards a Nicusor Dan victory
The fight for being the Mayor of Bucharest is an event even on itself and the trend for the crucial parliamentary election is often decided there. Given that Romania still uses the antiquated no-runoffs system to elect its local representatives, the main right wing parties, USR and PNL, had to unite to prevent victories by the PSD candidates solely because of the split in liberal votes. They selected Nicusor Dan, the founder of USR and a civic activist who is quite popular and well known in the city. He also ran in 2012 and 2016, and last time he got 30% of the vote as basically an independent. Normally Firea would lose in such a scenario, especially given her lack of performance, however she is being kept in the game by Former President Basescu, who has entered the race and is sure to take votes from Nicusor Dan, as well as by her relative charisma.

District 1 Mayor - Mayor Daniel Tudorache (PSD) vs Clotilde Armand (USR-PNL)
Rating - leaning towards an USR-PNL victory
This is yet another rematch from four years ago, with Clotilde Armand being an USR star who was actually born in France but lost to Tudorache in a very close (many say rigged) contest in 2016. As District 1 is the most liberal one in the city, if Tudorache gets reelected it is a signal that the rightists are not doing well at all. This is by far the most intense and well-known contest among the District ones as the Mayor keeps sending Policemen to stalk his opponent for whatever reason, and it is also pretty much a culture war, so whichever side wins will get a morale boost.

District 2 Mayor - Dan Cristian Popescu (PSD) vs Radu Mihaiu (USR-PNL) vs Niculai Ontanu (PPUSL)
Rating - leaning towards a PSD victory
This a rather complicated one so bear with me - the incumbent PSD mayor refused to run for another term, and PNL wanted to propose Dan Cristian Popescu, a well known politician who is not the cleanest however. USR refused to support him and thus Popescu did not have a party to run from, until Firea recruited him to run for PSD. The race is further complicated by the entrance of Niculai Ontanu, who led the District for decades before being arrested in 2016. While he is unlikely to win, he will probably take a lot of votes from the PSD candidate.

District 3 Mayor - Mayor Robert Negoita (ProRomania) vs Adrian Moraru (PNL-USR)
Rating - safe ProRomania victory
This is another tricky one - Robert Negoita was originally a PSD member, however he was recruited by Ponta to run for his party, thus leaving PSD without any significant candidate in the District. The Mayor is very popular, thus he will easily win reelection.

District 4 Mayor - Mayor Daniel Baluta (PSD) vs Simona Spataru (USR-PNL)
Rating - likely PSD victory
The incumbent Mayor is relatively popular and his reelection is viewed as very likely, however the USR-PNL candidate does have a small chance of pulling an upset.

District 5 Mayor - Mayor Daniel Florea (PSD) vs Cristian Bacanu (PNL-USR) vs Marian Vanghelie (PSDI)
Rating - leaning towards a PSD victory
The Mayor is a pretty classical PSD politician (read arrogant and corrupt), however District 5 is probably the only PSD-friendly area in the entire city. He would probably have won in a landslide here, if not for Marian Vanghelie, another former Mayor who got arrested in office and now wants to win again. He is a symbol of grammar errors, or at least was until Dancila came around.

District 6 Mayor - Mayor Gabriel Mutu (PSD) vs Ciprian Ciucu (PNL-USR) vs Stefan Florescu (PMP)
Rating - pure tossup
This is probably the closest race in Bucharest and it will probably predict who ends up winning in the end. Ciprian Ciucu is a pretty well known politician and has the modern vibe that the right wing voters look for, however the incumbent Mayor is also pretty popular and the PMP here seems unusually strong. I would not dare making predictions.

The ratings will probably change before now and election day, however I hope you enjoyed this and now know the basics of the Bucharest races!

[RGM2609]

Good day everyone, it has been a while since my last update so today I will try to immerse you in the regular insanity that is happening in Romanian politics -

For starters, the Peoples Attorney Renate Weber continues her assault on any decency that is still left in this country. After she contributed decisively to the wave of COVID-19 infections that our country is dealing with right now because she got the Constitutional Court to rule any mandatory quarantine or isolation measures for infected patients but also managed to protected the huge pensions the MPs gave themselves, now she once again came out of nowhere demanding for asymptomatic patients to not be dealt with in any way (basically let them spread the virus freely). This has caused the well known PNL MEP Rares Bogdan to write a Facebook rant against her, calling her a horrific human being, an agent against the Romanian government, a filthy woman and a scum. While this language is not to be accepted, the incidents since Weber took over (and long before that) show the uselessness and ineffectiveness of the Peoples Attorney office, which has always been used by politicians to defend themselves from the rule of law and now Weber is literally trying to kill the people she is supposedly representing.

Meanwhile, the race in Bucharest is continuing to heat up, as the people will vote in nine days from now. In District 1, a race which in many ways has been even more visible then the one for the Bucharest Mayorship, the PSD Mayor seems to continue, for some unknown reason, to send thugs and local Policemen to harass his opponent. I think this will backfire on Election Day. While many Romanian villages are used to being led by little tyrants, I doubt the most liberal area of the biggest city in Romania will like it too much. However, COVID-19 is really putting every prediction in jeopardy.

Also the incumbent PSD Mayor Gabriela Firea and the challenger endorsed by USR-PNL Nicusor Dan seem to have agreed to attend a debate together following much chaos. It is expected to be quite an epic event, so I will be writing you an update as soon as it happens.