Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
Posts: 44,066
|
 |
« on: August 11, 2019, 12:03:30 AM » |
|
Seems like I’ve seen several people arguing here about how “Candidate X can’t win the nomination because he/she is underperforming too much with Demographic group Y”. But do we actually have evidence suggesting that how much a candidate is overperforming or underperforming with any particular demographic group 6 months out from the voting is more predictive of who will win the nomination than just looking at the topline polling #s?
I mean, sure, I can see that national crosstabs can inform your educated guesses as to which state a candidate will perform well in. But if you had a poll of each state, and just looked at the topline #s, wouldn't that give you all you needed to know?
|
