KY-Lake Research: Andy Beshear (D) +15 vs. Gov. Matt Bevin (R)

[Tender Branson]

51% Beshear
36% Bevin (incumbent)

Link

[Politician]

Dominating.

[Tender Branson]

This poll and the Gravis poll are ca. 25 points apart, despite both being conducted in mid June.

I have heard that both Ds and Rs think that Beshear is currently ahead by about 5% in internal polling though.

[ElectionsGuy]

LMAO

[SnowLabrador]

Junk poll.

[Gracile]

The poll was commissioned by Planned Parenthood, so take with a good pinch of salt. Also:

Asked whether it's important for women in Kentucky to have "access to all of the reproductive health care options available, including abortion," 65% said yes, according to the poll.

Also, 65% said they would have doubts about a law that bans abortion, even in cases of rape or incest, should the U.S. Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 case legalizing abortion.

This seems a bit high for KY, and it makes me think this sample is too D-friendly.

[Pollster]

I believe Alysia Snell is still responsible for all of Lake's work with Planned Parenthood, which means this poll should be swiftly and promptly thrown away.

[President Johnson]

It will be funny to bump this once Bevin is reelected by ten or twelve points.

[SnowLabrador]

It will be funny to bump this once Bevin is reelected by ten or twelve points.

[Bidenworth2020]

Among other findings of the Planned Parenthood poll conducted June 4-11:

Beshear has a 15-point lead over incumbent Bevin in the governor's race. Asked if the election were held today, 51% said they would vote for Beshear and 36% for Bevin.

Bevin, who already is ranked as the nation's least popular governor, is viewed unfavorably by 48% and favorably by 38% of Kentuckians polled.This is 14 points better than what he is at in MC. Beshear, the state's attorney general, was viewed favorably by 46% and unfavorably by 38%.
Voters were evenly divided about candidates who vote to restrict abortion, with 40% more likely and 41% less likely to vote for that person.This is the shakiest part of the poll, but I could certainly see it being the case if pro-choicers are more activated.
Planned Parenthood has about the same favorable rating among Kentuckians, at 54%, as Kentucky Right to Life, an anti-abortion group, at 58%, within the poll's 4% margin of error. Considering PP does a lot of other stuff besides abortions, I could see it.
And 86% support comprehensive, medically accurate sex education in public schools that includes information on abstinence, birth control and sexually transmitted diseases.duh
Just 18% said they believe all abortions should be illegal — though another 37% said abortion should be allowed only in "extreme cases," such as for pregnancies resulting from rape or incest or to save the life of the woman. And 43% said abortion should be legal with some regulations.I saw a poll of Kentucky from Gallup that had them at 57% pro life, only 2 points higher than this poll.

[Senator Incitatus]

I believe Alysia Snell is still responsible for all of Lake's work with Planned Parenthood, which means this poll should be swiftly and promptly thrown away.

What makes Snell bad in particular, beyond the problems with a PP poll outlined in the thread so far?

[Frenchrepublican]

Lol. They probably polled Louisville rather than KY as whole

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lol. They probably polled Louisville rather than KY as whole

If you think Beshear is only winning Louisville by 15 points you are deranged, but still less deranged than this poll result for all of KY.

[Frenchrepublican]

Lol. They probably polled Louisville rather than KY as whole

If you think Beshear is only winning Louisville by 15 points you are deranged, but still less deranged than this poll result for all of KY.

Sure, Beshear will likely win Louisville by 30. I was just mocking this poll

And no, I’m not deranged

[One Term Floridian]

Yeah probably a trash poll, but should be taken as yet another sign as to how endangered Bevin is

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not Likely R anymore, Beshear will win

[S019]

Lol, I want to believe this, but, yeah, not happening

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems will win KY and La and GOP MS

[Pollster]

I believe Alysia Snell is still responsible for all of Lake's work with Planned Parenthood, which means this poll should be swiftly and promptly thrown away.

What makes Snell bad in particular, beyond the problems with a PP poll outlined in the thread so far?

Last I interacted with the firm, Snell was solely tasked with leading their issue advocacy work and strictly avoided consulting for electoral campaigns (often for legal purposes). It does appear that this poll was done for issue advocacy and not for campaign strategy purposes, and the style with which polling questionnaires are written often differ in important ways that can influence the results. I don't mean to disparage her skill as a social scientist - just to point out that this isn't her area of expertise.

Fwiw, it's been many years since I last interacted with Lake Research, but over the past decade or so their client roster has thinned significantly and they've lost many high-profile names. I do know that there is strong opposition to them at the DSCC and they often advise top recruits to hire other firms. No idea what happened, but this is a big change from the mid-2000's when they practically had a name made of gold.

[RI]

The poll was commissioned by Planned Parenthood, so take with a good pinch of salt. Also:

Asked whether it's important for women in Kentucky to have "access to all of the reproductive health care options available, including abortion," 65% said yes, according to the poll.

Also, 65% said they would have doubts about a law that bans abortion, even in cases of rape or incest, should the U.S. Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 case legalizing abortion.

This seems a bit high for KY, and it makes me think this sample is too D-friendly.

Those numbers are laughable.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

LMAO. Did they only poll the registered KY Democrats?

[Badger]

If only.

[NOVA Green]

This poll and the Gravis poll are ca. 25 points apart, despite both being conducted in mid June.

I have heard that both Ds and Rs think that Beshear is currently ahead by about 5% in internal polling though.

So, do we chop the difference between two crap polls?

Do we revert to the mean of Mason-Dixon poll from way back in 12/15/18 with a 45-41 DEM model?

Do we look at the PPP poll from back on 5/7/19 that showed a 49-39 DEM breakdown?

We don't have tons to go one here, but at least Mason-Dixon and PPP seem potentially a bit more reputable, although it does appear that Bevin's favs have been sliding downwards over the past 6 Months, most likely tied with the Teacher's Movement in Feb, that is still continuing....

https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/a3byd4/hundreds-of-kentucky-schools-closed-because-teachers-called-out-sick-in-protest-of-gop-pension-bill

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2019/03/20/teacher-strike-sickout-kentucky-jcps-wayne-lewis-names-list/3223587002/

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/elections/kentucky/2019/08/03/fancy-farm-2019-kentucky-teachers-push-bevins-ouster/1744219001/

Kentucky is no stranger to Union Activism, especially when it comes to causes considered just vs unjust....

Looks to me like we have a mixture of SE-KY Coal Country, combined with the largest Metro Areas (Louisville, Lexington-Fayette, some College Towns like Bowling Green, a dash of the Cinci 'Burbs, and huge amount of folks in rural and small town KY as well).

The issue of education is HUGE in Kentucky, since it also accounts for educational parity and equality, and potentially a chance for higher economic mobility, especially in parts of the state that have either been hit hard by economic dislocation, or increases in new opportunities as a result of shifting patterns in the Auto Sector and Parts Industry, where KY has benefited from either a shift to Non-Union plants, or a Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) model where some of the largest mfgs no longer directly employee folks, but instead have large auto sub-contract companies that provide mfg to Engr spec, in some cases with NDA and separate lines for various business customers)

Here's a picture of a Union Tee-Shirt that was gifted to me by a 3rd generation Coal Miner from SE-OH after I brought the UMWA to my College Campus as part of the General Strike in the Appalachian Coal Mines of 1993....

[Bojack Horseman]

I'll believe it when I see it.

[Xing]

Suuuuuuuure.