1976 - Reagan launches 3rd party candidacy

[RGM2609]

In 1976, following a closer race for the Republican nomination, the most conservative members of the party, headed by Ronald Reagan, staged a walkout at the convention and formed the American Conservative Party, which nominated Reagan for President and Bob Dole for Vice President. Meanwhile, President Gerald Ford, now no longer having to please the right wingers, moved hard towards the center and chose to keep Nelson Rockefeller as Vice President. He would go on and run a centrist, mainstream campaign, even with mild liberal tendencies on social issues. Because of Ford moving to the center, Carter has to go somewhat to the left of his OTL 1976 campaign, even through he is still very far from McGovern 1972. All 3 candidates qualify to the debates, in which Reagan and Ford split the win. OTL campaign developments (Carter's interview for example) are kept. How is the map looking and what happens next, in 1980 and so on, in your view?

[morgankingsley]

Carter wins 30-35 states, Reagan may pick up a couple of rural states, and split the vote to give Carter California, but that's it for him.

BTW, welcome to the forum

[dw93]

I doubt Reagan would get any support from the Republican establishment in 1980 after running a third party campaign that would IMHO be pretty damaging to them. We'd have a different Republican President elected in 1980.

[RGM2609]

I doubt Reagan would get any support from the Republican establishment in 1980 after running a third party campaign that would IMHO be pretty damaging to them. We'd have a different Republican President elected in 1980.

I wonder who would that be. If the GOP nominates a moderate candidate like Anderson or Rocky or maybe if Ford, who the Cons likely dispise by now, does a Cleveland, maybe the right wingers run 3rd party again. I can't see Reagan running again after how 1976 went, so the Party would just take vital votes from the Repubs to make the race competitive and close. If Carter wins again, a conservative would get nominated and win in 1984 (Dole?), if GOP wins, the Republicans right wing shift will be postponed but likely not averted. But that's just my take on it. Any other thoughts?

[morgankingsley]

I doubt Reagan would get any support from the Republican establishment in 1980 after running a third party campaign that would IMHO be pretty damaging to them. We'd have a different Republican President elected in 1980.

I wonder who would that be. If the GOP nominates a moderate candidate like Anderson or Rocky or maybe if Ford, who the Cons likely dispise by now, does a Cleveland, maybe the right wingers run 3rd party again. I can't see Reagan running again after how 1976 went, so the Party would just take vital votes from the Repubs to make the race competitive and close. If Carter wins again, a conservative would get nominated and win in 1984 (Dole?), if GOP wins, the Republicans right wing shift will be postponed but likely not averted. But that's just my take on it. Any other thoughts?

This isn't a bad assessment