Poster's Top 10.

[Moooooo]

I think a lot will depend on the political climate in 2006.  If you asked me 2-3 months ago I would have said the democrats pickup 2-3 seats in the senate and a handful or more in the house.  But it seems like the GOP has gotten back on their feet and launched some pretty nice offensives.  Bush isnt laying down anymore, the RNC is launching 'white flag' attacks on democratic leaders, the NRSC/NRCC is trying to pin Abramoff on the democrats, etc...

Ranked from most competitive to least competitive.


1.  PA (See the polls.  See the incumbents (Santorum) desperate plea for debates.)

2.  OH (DeWine's problems lie more with his base than his potential challengers.)

3.  MN  (Open Seat.  Im not impressed with Klobuchar.  Its ashame AG Mike Hatch wants to be governor.)

4.  NJ (Menendez has the money, the political tilt of NJ, and incumbency on his side, but he's in no way out of the dark.  Kean is the type of republican who can compete and win in the North East.  His last name doesnt hurt either)

5.  MO (See the polls.)

6.  RI (See Chris Cillizza's analysis.)

7.  MD (Depending on the democratic candidate this race has the potential to move way up or possibly drop off the list.  Cardin is a solid candidate as shown in his poll numbers.  He's the least known top tier candidate in the race, yet he has the best head to head numbers.  Being a jewish version of Paul Sarbanes doesnt exactly hurt either.  Mfume on the other hand has character problems that would be hard to over come.)

8.  MT (Burns is knee deep in scandal.  I doubt anyone would deny that.  Depending on the type of capaign his challenger runs this one could fall off the list or move up a notch or two.  Populism works in MT (See:  Gov. Brian Schweitzer).  I like Tester in this race.)

9.  FL (Nelson should have lost his seat in '06.  Jeb Bush, Charlie Crist, Tom Gallagher, Gen. Tommy Franks.  All have one thing in common, they could have knocked off Bill Nelson.  But as it stands now the Republicans will be stuck with a lackluster candidate in Katherine Harris.  See:  the polls and her inability to keep a campaign staff together.  No one wants to be a part of her sinking ship.  The good news for the dem's is, she's like 40 points ahead in the republican primary.)

10.  MI  (Ill probably catch a little flack for this one, but I truely believe Stabenow and Gov. Granholm are more vulnerable then their poll numbers show.  MI is ripe for an anti-incumbent election.  The economy is bad and the voters will be looking for someone to blame.  Will the MI democrats be able to push it off on Bush?  Or will it fall back on them?  Even more good news for the Republicans, Oakland County Sheriff Michael J. Bouchard is back in.)

[TeePee4Prez]

I think Klobuchar is a good candidate.  Think EMILY's List!

[ATFFL]

Title modified to encourage other people to post and discuss their top ten lists here.  I think it could be a good discussion topic and would like to keep it in one place rather than have everyone post their own.

[Gustaf]

Which party does the Minnesota open seat belong to, is it the Republican or the Democratic seat?

[Moooooo]

dems

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Here's my top 10, followed by how likely I think each one is to turn over:

1.) Pennsylvania - 65%
2.) Ohio - 45%
3.) Rhode Island - 43% (basically, a 25% chance Chafee loses the primary, and 25% chance he loses the general)
4.) Minnesota - 40%
5.) Missouri - 35%
6.) New Jersey - 33%
7.) Montana - 30%
8.) Maryland - 27%
9.) Tennessee - 25%
10.) Nebraska - 22%

If I had to make a guess based on these number, I would say Dems pick up 2 seats.

[Jake]

Should Flip
1. Pennsylvania (Leaning Dem/Pick-up)
...
May Flip
2. Rhode Island (Leaning GOP)
3. New Jersey (Leaning Dem/Open)
4. Ohio (Leaning GOP)
5. Montana (Leaning GOP)
6. Minnesota (Leaning Dem/Open)
7. Missouri (Leaning GOP)
...
Shouldn't Flip
8. Florida (Strong Dem)
9. Tennessee (Strong GOP/Open)
10. Maryland (Strong Dem/Open)
11. Virginia (Strong GOP)
12. Michigan (Strong Dem)
13. Nebraska (Strong Dem)
14. Arizona (Strong GOP)
15. Washington (Strong Dem)

[Smash255]

1.  PA
2.  OH
3.  MT
4.  MO
5.  MN
6.  RI
7. NJ
8. MD
9. FL
10. TN

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I wouldn't rank PA as the most competitive race, since it's pretty sure that Santorum is going down. OH would certainly be more competitive.

[riceowl]

I actually agree with jfern here; while things may be different come Election Day, right now OH and MO are more competitive.

These rankings seem to be based on chance of flippage.

[ian]

1. Pennsylvania (I believe it will flip)
2. Missouri (Same)
3. Minnesota (Same)

4. Ohio
5. Montana
6. New Jersey
7. Rhode Island
8. Maryland
9. Tennessee
10. Doesn't matter because there is a 0% chance of flipping.

[Yates]

Chance of Flip
Pennsylvania - 75%
Minnesota - 55%
Missouri - 50%
Ohio - 45%
New Jersey - 40%
Rhode Island - 35%
Montana - 30%
Tennessee - 25%
Maryland - 20%
Florida - 10%

[TheresNoMoney]

Pennsylvania- 80%
Ohio- 60%
Missouri-55%
Rhode Island- 50%
Minnesota- 45%
New Jersey- 40%
Montana- 40%
Tennessee- 35%
Maryland- 15%
Nebraska- 10%

[Gustaf]

Pennsylvania seems likely to flip and I think Ohio will too (Taft is taking DeWine with him...) Minnesota I'm really undecided on. Generally, I'd say 1-3 seat gain for the Dems, leaning towards 1 right now.

[nini2287]

1) PA
2) MN
3) NJ
4) OH
5) MO
6) RI
7) TN
MD
9) NE
10) FL (esp. if Harris isn't the nominee, others MT or WA is #10)