Morning Consult 8/1-4: Biden 33 Sanders 19 Warren 15 Harris 9 Buttigieg 6

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Biden 33 (0)
Sanders 19 (+1)
Warren 15 (+2)
Harris 9 (-4)
Buttigieg 6 (+1)
Booker 3 (0)
O'Rourke 3 (0)
Yang 2 (0)

Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Steyer, Williamson, and Ryan each have 1.
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Tom Steyer is at 6% in early states??

[The Mikado]

Biden 33 (0)
Sanders 19 (+1)
Warren 15 (+2)
Harris 9 (-4)
Buttigieg 6 (+1)
Booker 3 (0)
O'Rourke 3 (0)
Yang 2 (0)

Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Steyer, Williamson, and Ryan each have 1.
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

We'll have to see if other pollsters bear out a Harris decline, but if so, Biden might be in pretty solid shape, as Harris is the only person competing for his most important slice of the electorate (black voters).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I think Harris also fell in second choices.  If I remember right, Harris was the top second choice of Warren and Buttigieg supporters, and now they go to Sanders and Warren, respectively.

[Yank2133]

Lol, pundits are so bad at this. Booker was deemed the winner by many of them and yet he saw no movement.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Tom Steyer is at 6% in early states??

Genuinely stunning numbers for Steyer, wow. I know he's pumping a lot of money into early state ads, but damn!

[Roronoa D. Law]

Harris now has the 2nd highest unfavorables.

[OneJ]

No noticeable change in the topline numbers other than Harris losing a bit of ground here. What's even more noticeable is the fact that the % of voters who view her unfavorably have climbed to 22% making it higher than even Biden or Sanders.

Also, 2nd choice results:

Biden supporters:
24% Sanders
20% Warren
15% Harris

Sanders supporters:
31% Biden
26% Warren
8% Harris

Warren supporters:
25% Sanders
22% Harris
17% Biden

Harris supporters:
26% Warren
24% Biden
12% Sanders

Buttigieg supporters:
21% Warren
18% Harris
17% Biden

[Burke Bro]

Seeing Steyer so high nearly gave me a heart attack.

[Mr. Morden]

Seeing Steyer so high nearly gave me a heart attack.

I feel like Steyer always looks like he's high, but maybe that's just me.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

DEVASTATING numbers for Officer Harris!  Morning Consult is notoriously unswingy.  Tulsi sure gave the nasty prosecutor a good blanchin’

[eric82oslo]

Tom Steyer is at 6% in early states??

Yep, and Yang at 3% in early states. Which probably means he's around 5-6% in New Hampshire. He should be doing great in Nevada too. And perhaps in South Carolina.

[Shadows]

Steyer's numbers in early states are crazy & the only thing that shows is that having a lot of money is going to be crucial. You will be need money for grassroots staff & expensive TV ads to compete in Iowa, NH & especially California & Texas.

This poll just shows how much Warren is taking away from Sanders. It is going to be very hard for both of them to run strong campaigns & beat Joe Biden.

[NOVA Green]

No noticeable change in the topline numbers other than Harris losing a bit of ground here. What's even more noticeable is the fact that the % of voters who view her unfavorably have climbed to 22% making it higher than even Biden or Sanders.

Also, 2nd choice results:

Biden supporters:
24% Sanders
20% Warren
15% Harris

Sanders supporters:
31% Biden
26% Warren
8% Harris

Warren supporters:
25% Sanders
22% Harris
17% Biden

Harris supporters:
26% Warren
24% Biden
12% Sanders

Buttigieg supporters:
21% Warren
18% Harris
17% Biden

Suspect maybe part of the reason for the Harris drop was that she tried to lay a hit on Biden in Night #2 and it fell a bit flat, especially compared to the 1st debate?

Still 2nd choice Biden/Sanders supporters are significant, and it does appear that Warren is at least # 3 in the race.....

Everything is still volatile here, and I would imagine the recent mass gun violence incidents, Gilroy and El Paso both committed at the hands of White Supremacists targeting Latino populations, as well as the Dayton shooting might shake up these numbers a bit more within the Democratic Primary, and allow political opportunity structures for candidates that we might not have considered to be proper contenders...

[eric82oslo]

Yang has leapfrogged in popularity after the second debate. His favorable number has increased more than 50%, while his unfavorable number has held steady. He now has a stronger net favorability than Gillibrand.

All candidates net favorability after 2nd debate:

1. Biden: +55%
2. Sanders: +54%
3. Warren: +46%
4. Buttigieg: +33%
5. Harris: +30%
6. Booker: +26%
7. Castro: +24%
8. O'Rourke: +23%
9. Klobuchar: +20%
10. Yang: +19%

11. Gillibrand: +17%
12. Gabbard: +12%
13. Inslee: +9%
14. Steyer: +8%
14. Bennet: +8%
16. Hickenlooper: +6%
17. Bullock: +5%
18. Moulton: +2%
18. Delaney: +2%
20. Ryan: +1%
21. Williamson: +/-0%
22. de Blasio: -7%


PS: Harris' unfavorable number is now worse than Williamson's at 22%, only beaten by de Blasio at 29%.

[eric82oslo]

Tom Steyer is at 6% in early states??

Genuinely stunning numbers for Steyer, wow. I know he's pumping a lot of money into early state ads, but damn!

He's also a really good and kind person. He's not doing this for his own gain, but rather to save a nation. His heart is in the right place, just like it is for Yang and Warren.

[John Dule]

Harris now has the 2nd highest unfavorables.

Gee, imagine that.

[Annatar]

It seems pretty clear Biden's inability to talk accurately at the debates isn't going to hurt him, Sanders & Warren are going to need something big to bring down his numbers.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It seems pretty clear Biden's inability to talk accurately at the debates isn't going to hurt him, Sanders & Warren are going to need something big to bring down his numbers.

Trump doesnt speak all that and the pausing of Beto between words seems like a handicap to me

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It seems pretty clear Biden's inability to talk accurately at the debates isn't going to hurt him, Sanders & Warren are going to need something big to bring down his numbers.

I mean he did pretty well in the last debate. His closing statement was bad, sure, but he was able to fight back against 30 different attacks and mostly went even / won every exchange (aside from one wit Booker).

I still think he won't be the nominee, though. There are a lot of months ahead of us. The concern about Biden's age and lack of being able to be dynamic as a result of that will lead to him eventually falling behind. He's probably my favorite of the people who have qualified for the third set of debates, but that doesn't mean I'm going to be a cheerleader for his chances.

I still think Elizabeth Warren is the most likely nominee

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Warren has dropped to 8% in natl polls and is losing badly in SC

[wbrocks67]

Hoping this is just a temporary downtick for Harris, though she's never gotten above like 14% in MC anyway. She's back to close to pre-debate levels.

Though I still think MC is wonky- they continue to have Bernie stronger than most other pollsters and Steyer is not at 6% in early states.

Happy though to see Gabbard got nothing from that debate.

[SN2903]

  Seems like the debate hurt Harris but Gabbard isn't gaining poll wise yet .

[SN2903]

Hoping this is just a temporary downtick for Harris, though she's never gotten above like 14% in MC anyway. She's back to close to pre-debate levels.

Though I still think MC is wonky- they continue to have Bernie stronger than most other pollsters and Steyer is not at 6% in early states.

Happy though to see Gabbard got nothing from that debate.

I hope Trump wins 40 states against your joke of a party . Democrats are so stupid for not supporting gabbard

[wbrocks67]

Hoping this is just a temporary downtick for Harris, though she's never gotten above like 14% in MC anyway. She's back to close to pre-debate levels.

Though I still think MC is wonky- they continue to have Bernie stronger than most other pollsters and Steyer is not at 6% in early states.

Happy though to see Gabbard got nothing from that debate.

I hope Trump wins 40 states against your joke of a party . Democrats are so stupid for not supporting gabbard

Thank you for the maturity.