2020 Democrats Timeline: A Different 27 - now back in short form!

[beesley]

January 21, 2019

MSNBC: Former Congressional Candidate and MSNBC Contributor Krystal Ball jumps into Presidential Race in surprise move.

Chuck Todd: And she joins us here now. Well, congratulations into jumping in. The first question people will be asking is, why, as someone who has not held elected office, are you running for President.

Ball: Well, when I ran against an incumbent Republican in 2010, I realised it was tough, but I saw problems that we needed to solve. We made some progress, but that Republican is now still in Congress, and he's working with President Trump to tear apart the free fabric of the nation, let alone solve problems. Trump doesn't support teachers or nurses or anyone female, minority or LGBTQ for that matter. I realise the problem doesn't stem from that Congressman, it stems for the President and I will stand here and explain how he goes against the people of our country.

Todd: Powerful. How do you think you can gain ground against experienced politicians? I mean, you're on my show, and that will help you a lot, but that's not all you got to do.

Ball: Look there are incredibly talented people running, but their talents have not been enough in the fight against the problems we solve. We need a candidate who explains how Donald Trump exacerbates those problems, because we've got to beat him. I will pick ideas that speak for themselves in their opposition to the broken system we have now. I will win a general election... these politicians are often retreads of Hillary Clinton. I'm something new and regardless of what the country wants now, they'll want something new.

A Tim Kaine staffer watches the television.

Kaine: What's happening?

Staffer: Just another candidate running.

Kaine: Who is it.

Staffer: Krystal Ball, some former candidate.

Kaine: What!? She was meant to be on our side. Help out her fellow Virginian.

Staffer: Relax, she's a nobody.

Kaine: No, she has the potential to do big.

Staffer: You sure?

Kaine: Yes, yes I am.



https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Krystal_Ball_(D),_candidate_for_US_House_in_VA-01.jpg

[beesley]

News for January 22, 2019

Deval Patrick receives first home state endorsement.
President Pro Tempore of the MA Senate Will Brownsberger provides an early endorsement for the Governor.

Krystal Ball makes first policy pronouncement, calling for six-figure salaries for public school teachers.
The candidate's policy is largely similar to a policy she argued for during her 2010 Congressional run in Virginia.

Endorsements for January 22, 2019

Deval Patrick:
President Pro Tempore of the Massachusetts Senate Will Brownsberger

[beesley]

January 23, 2019

Roll Call: DSCC Chair Confirmed After Delay


https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Michael_Bennet_Official_Photo.jpg

Whilst the chair of the DSCC was originally presumed to be Catherine Cortez Masto, the announcement was delayed. The announcement of Senator Bennet to the role has however been praised.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Yes! Danica 2020!

Boy do I feel like a jackass.

[beesley]

Week beginning January 28, 2019
CNN holds town halls with the four declared major candidates.

Question Time, a Youtuber, watched all four town halls and summarised them as follows:

Deval Patrick's town hall in Nashua, New Hampshire with Dana Bash on January 28:
Overall, Patrick talked about his record and his policy planks more, but he was able to do that in a way which endeared Democrats to him. He could be surprisingly strong in the debates, if he's like this, but he still doesn't stand out as well. If he doesn't do that now, my concern is that he won't be able to grow when the field gets to 20 or so.

Tammy Baldwin's town hall in Waterloo, Iowa with Jake Tapper on January 29:
Baldwin was the strongest of the four. She had the clearest policy positions, and her policies to improve rural communities and provide Medicare For All received considerable applause. She balanced calling out President Trump with pitching her own progressive solutions, appealing to both concerns about electability and policy. I may be biased as a progressive, but I think she is emerging as a contender with Bernie Sanders out of the race. Of course, if Elizabeth Warren runs, then she may struggle to differentiate herself against the more high-profile Warren.

Krystal Ball's town hall in Henderson, Nevada with Chris Cuomo on January 30:
Ball was definitely the weakest of the four. Whilst she did energise the crowd, she struggled to convey how her policies would help Americans and whether they could be achieved. Most of the questions were unhelpful and broad given her lack of positions, but she did come out in favour of 'Supreme Court packing', the first candidate to do so. She is however unconventional, has a good backstory, and will attract attention in weeks to come.

Tim Kaine's town hall in Spartanburg, South Carolina with Nia-Malika Henderson on January 31:
Kaine held his own, and came off strong on several criticisms of Donald Trump. In particular he provided a good response on the issue of race, which may be important in South Carolina. When it came to healthcare, he also was prepared when asked why he didn't support Medicare For All, touting the Medicare X bill he introduced. Some members of the audience praised his performance, but a few progressives were left dissatisfied.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Ball 2020! (so far)

[beesley]

February 1, 2019
CNN: Caroline Kennedy, daughter of JFK and former US Ambassador, announces formation of an exploratory committee for President.



John King: If she does run, as would seem to be the case, Kennedy would be an interesting candidate at the very least. The former US Ambassador to Japan was speculated as a wild card candidate for the Presidency. Her challenge might be to take all the experience she's had, from her younger years, her time as an attorney and in non-profits, and of course as a campaigner for President Obama and an Ambassador, and build it into a well-oiled political machine . She's a strong candidate, but if she doesn't keep momentum with her, she's one that could fall away.

[beesley]

July 14, 2020

The discussion continues:

Castro: We then got our first Hispanic candidate.

Inslee: But certainly not the last - and how they performed was definitely a surprise.

[beesley]

February 4, 2020
BBC: Warren OUT, says she has 'two candidates she'll decide between.'

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren has stated she will no . It is presumed one is her friend and progressive Senate colleague Tammy Baldwin, and that the other will be a candidate yet to run. The latter is likely to be one of Sherrod Brown, Jeff Merkley, or Jay Inslee, according to Nathan Gonzalez. Of those, only Inslee has not expressed any interest in running.

Meanwhile...

MSNBC: Catherine Cortez Masto makes it five.


https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Catherine_Cortez_Masto_official_portrait.jpg

Steve Kornacki: Well, the Nevada Senator was not considered to be a frontrunner when she joined the Senate unlike Kamala Harris, but with both Harris and Warren out, she is now polling strongly. Whereas Tim Kaine and Tammy Baldwin both occupy traditional lanes, it'll interesting to see how Senator Cortez Masto positions herself, and what states she thinks she can win, if she makes it that fair. Of course, there's one of the four states she can win for sure - her home state of Nevada. At the moment, I would place her in the top tier of candidates. The candidate I think she'll siphon support from currently is Tim Kaine, but I think both will make the debate stage for sure, and both will get the polling and donors. The biggest threat to them of course is Joe Biden.

Endorsements for February 7, 2020

Catherine Cortez Masto:
Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen
Nevada Governor Steve Sisolak
NV-01 Rep Dina Titus
NV-03 Rep Susie Lee
NV-04 Rep Steven Horsford
NM-02 Rep Xochitl Torres Small
CT-04 Rep Jim Himes
Attorney General of New Mexico Hector Balderas

[😥]

What are the results of 2018 midterms? Same as in real life?

Also, great job!

[beesley]

What are the results of 2018 midterms? Same as in real life?

Also, great job!

Thanks! I appreciate the replies since I can't tell who's viewing (reply please people ) Al Gore's return is also great!

And yes, everything up to the 2018 midterms is the same, as is everything going on in the GOP that's unrelated.

[Joseph Cao]

Great job! Looking forward to see what happens in this timeline.

I don’t think this will end well for Kaine.

[beesley]

Great job! Looking forward to see what happens in this timeline.

I don’t think this will end well for Kaine.

Thanks! It's a busy time but I'm hoping to get a few more candidates out by the end of the week.

When it comes to who does well, I've tried to make it as realistic as possible -- so it's worth predicting

[beesley]

For personal reasons I never properly started/finished this timeline. However, I thought I'd reveal the 27 candidates and the result of the primaries and the election in a short timeline, and if anyone wants to see it, just reply. Most of the candidates were designed to assume a similar role to real life candidates.

These are the first 15 candidates of the 27:

1. Sen. Tim Kaine of VA - the ordinary bland moderate candidate in the race, who sees a path to the nomination and may do well among moderates, but struggles at first to avoid being tagged with Clinton's unsuccessful campaign and is panned by the media as a result. He is praised for his policy stances by moderates but leaves progressives dissatisfied. (based on: Joe Biden, but modified to be less successful and remove the Obama VP boost)

2. Sen. Tammy Baldwin of WI - a progressive leaning candidate, but far from the most progressive in the race. Again, tries to make up for a lack of name recognition among ordinary people through policy chops, which isn't always convincing. Focuses on a unique combination of rust belt blue collar economics while touting progressive social stances. (based on: Elizabeth Warren, but accounting for less name recognition and less economic expertise)

3. Fmr. Gov. Deval Patrick of MA - the first black candidate to announce, runs on his record and generic D talking points except for an increased focus on race and crime issues. Struggles to thread the needle at times between progressives and moderates but stronger than expected in the debates. (based on: Cory Booker, but accounting for less youthful energy)

4. TheHill journalist Krystal Ball of VA - the first wtf rando candidate, with random left-wing stances such as court packing, but not that good a performer. Despite this, she will obtain enough donations to make the first two debates, though many of those donating are doing so to give her a platform. (based on: Marianne Williamson)

5. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto of NV - an unlikely candidate initially, only rising in the polls when Harris doesn't run. She is helped by being the clear frontrunner in Nevada which grants her wider national recognition. Assumed at first to have a lock on the Hispanic vote, it becomes clear it's due to white suburbanites she is a frontrunner. (based on: Kamala Harris)

6. Fmr. Rep. Alan Grayson of FL - one of the most divisive candidates in the race, veering even further to the left than he did as a Congressman. Nobody knows why he's running, but he attracts a lot of attention, often for just attacking other candidates and portraying himself as the heir to Bernie Sanders. Announces Nina Turner as a running mate before the primaries even start. (based on: Bill de Blasio, but more dislikeable. Grayson was originally going to be David Alameel, until I found out Alameel was not constitutionally eligible.)

7. Fmr. Ambassador Caroline Kennedy of NY - hyped up by the media, she goes from a relative unknown to someone with support that stretches beyond her surname. Vulnerable to attacks based on the Obama administration's foreign policy which she defends.

8. Fmr. Gov. Peter Shumlin of VT - a candidate which has no chance but makes into the debates, just about. Fairly in the middle. Runs as a man who gets things done and on electability, but just doesn't go anywhere. (based on: John Hickenlooper)

9. Fmr. Rep. Cynthia McKinney of GA - urged to run by Twitter hacks, McKinney starts fundraising and receives more donations than expected. Criticised for running for the Green Party but anti-Democrat socialist organisations promote her.  (based on: Tulsi Gabbard)

10. State Sen. Tom Begich of AK - again, another candidate which has no chance but gets an unusual amount of airtime. To make up for a lack of name recognition, he says Democrats have forgotten about rural and remote America and touts surprisingly progressive policies as the way to achieve this, while also attempting to make extra inroads with minority voters. Very likeable. (based on: Steve Bullock, but way more likeable)

11. Fmr. Attorney General Eric Holder of NY - initially viewed as at the front of the pack, Holder's campaign is not all it's hyped up to be, but he eats into other candidates' support. Talks about political reform  (based on: Kirsten Gillibrand)

12. Fmr. Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis of CA - comes in with a big announcement having been quietly preparing for a Presidential bid since 2016. In that time, she has helped shape policy on labor, immigration . Running a very grassroots campaign but criticised sharply by the left due to Obama-era policies. (based on: Julian Castro)

13. Rep. Ben Ray Lujan of NM - the final of the three Hispanic candidates to announce, and by far the least interesting. Doesn't really go anywhere and repeatedly urged to drop out (based on: Seth Moulton)

14. Astronaut Mark Kelly of AZ - an unknown, he surprises everyone by mounting a very serious campaign. His backstory is a unique selling point but the novelty soon wears off (based on: Beto O'Rourke)

15. Sen. Sherrod Brown of OH - an immediate frontrunner as soon as he announces, Brown is not the most progressive candidate but viewed as a progressive who can be trusted. Focuses purely on bread and butter economic issues initially, which backfires and weakens him, but he recovers by putting forward the boldest policies of any frontrunner. (based on: Bernie Sanders, though obviously less left-wing)

The remaining 12 will have a few surprises, some good, some pointless.

[Utah Neolib]

Bump