Predict how polls will change after the debates

[Senator Cris]

How do you think poll numbers will change after the debates? Specific predictions with numbers are appreciated!

[eric82oslo]

Biden will drop massively, Harris will drop some. Castro, Yang, Booker, Warren, Sanders and probably Gabbard will all rise. Gillibrand and Inslee have possibilities to rise too, perhaps also Klobuchar.

[SN2903]

Biden drops a little . Harris drops to around a 6 to 8 percent average. Gabbard and Yang rise to an average of 3 to 4 percent . Sanders and Warren stay around the same . Pete continues to drop.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden will drop massively, Harris will drop some. Castro, Yang, Booker, Warren, Sanders and probably Gabbard will all rise. Gillibrand and Inslee have possibilities to rise too, perhaps also Klobuchar.

Why do you see Biden dropping massively?

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

No major change at the top. Biden and Harris may dip a few points. Gabbard and Booker see a slight bump. No other candidate sees much of any major change.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As long as Biden keeps his substantial lead in SC, Biden can afford to lose IA to Warren, but win NH and NV

[History505]

It won't change the polls that much as some think.

[Gracile]

I don't see it changing anyone's standing significantly, maybe Harris will drop off a bit (as she has been prior to the debate).

[Minnesota Mike]

No significant change.

[Senator Incitatus]

Harris will lose some support to Booker.

[Buzz]

No real change. 

Biden might drop by 2 points or so.

Yang, Booker, Gabbard, Williamson might gain a point or so.

Harris drop by 2-3 points.

Bernie might get a point.

[terp40hitch]

Biden: Stays steady, around 30%
Sanders: Drops one or two points as Warren continues to win over support
Warren: Will be ahead of Bernie, strong 17 or 18%
Harris: Drops two to four points, is down to 8%
Buttigieg: Remains at 5%
O'Rourke: Drops to 2%
Booker: Jumps ahead of O'Rourke to a strong four percent
Yang: Remains at 2%
Gabbard and Castro: Both climb to two or three percent in new polls then drop once debate bumps start to fade
Delaney: Remains at about 0.5 to 0.9%
Steyer: Falls in support due to missing debate then recovers to 1%
Ryan: Most likely runs out of funds and suspends
Klobuchar: Remains steady at around 0.8% to 1.1%
Hickenlooper: Remains steady till his suspension
Gillibrand: drops to around 0.1 to 0.2%
Williamson: Climbs to around 0.7 to 1.0%
Bullock: Remains in 0.2%
Bennet: Jumps to 0.4% then falls to 0.2% again

[SN2903]

Gabbards bump gets her into the third debate

[Mr. Smith]

Slight drop for Harris, slight rise for Warren...that's it.

[Podgy the Bear]

Relatively minimal change throughout.  The preferences are hardening now. 

[Alben Barkley]

Biden holds steady, maybe gains a couple points.

Harris plummets back to where she was before the first debate, down to the single digits and out of top-tier territory. She and Booker needed desperately to eat into Biden’s black support, and I just don’t see that happening. Harris opened up a small window of opportunity in the first debate, but that seems pretty much closed now.

Buttigieg’s 15 minutes seemed mostly over already, and the debate did nothing to change that. He probably goes back down to low single digits.

Warren and Sanders will continue to split the lefty vote, roughly tied for second and hovering 15+ points below Biden. If one or the other dropped out, they may have a chance to actually compete with Biden (I think Warren has the better chance), but Bernie’s ego is too big for that and I don’t see Warren dropping out while she’s still riding pretty high.

Most of the rest are pretty much done at this point. This was their last chance to break out and they just didn’t. I don’t see any gaining much ground. Hell, Marianne Williamson may have a better chance to gain a couple points than any of the other bottom-feeders.

[CookieDamage]

People thinking there's gonna be a massive implosion dor anyone need to become comedians

[Progressive Pessimist]

Very little overall. I don't think these debates will make as much of an impact as the first ones were. First impressions will probably overtake any changes in opinion that may have happened.

I guess I could see Booker, Sanders, and Warren gaining some support. I doubt that anyone else gains or loses much. For someone like Biden though, that is a huge positive, especially compared to the last debates.

[Minnesota Mike]

Post debate Morning Consult poll shows little change.

https://morningconsult.com/2019/08/02/detroit-debates-deliver-meager-returns-for-bidens-challengers/

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Post debate Morning Consult poll shows little change.

https://morningconsult.com/2019/08/02/detroit-debates-deliver-meager-returns-for-bidens-challengers/

My condolences to the Gabbard fanboys of the internet.

[Tender Branson]

Only 10 million people out of 70-80 Mio. potential Democratic voters watched the debates.

I assume they will not change by a lot, but I could see Yang, Castro, Gabbard and Williamson getting a few 2-3% polls in the next weeks.

[SN2903]

Post debate Morning Consult poll shows little change.

https://morningconsult.com/2019/08/02/detroit-debates-deliver-meager-returns-for-bidens-challengers/

My condolences to the Gabbard fanboys of the internet.

It's 1 poll and sometimes it takes a few days to get the full effect of a debate. I want to see more legit polls. Morning consult is a joke. Also Gabbard is about to hit 130,000 donors probably by tomorrow. She is at 128k. Bad news for Kamla if Tulsi is in debate 3.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Post debate Morning Consult poll shows little change.

https://morningconsult.com/2019/08/02/detroit-debates-deliver-meager-returns-for-bidens-challengers/

My condolences to the Gabbard fanboys of the internet.

It's 1 poll and sometimes it takes a few days to get the full effect of a debate. I want to see more legit polls. Morning consult is a joke. Also Gabbard is about to hit 130,000 donors probably by tomorrow. She is at 128k. Bad news for Kamla if Tulsi is in debate 3.

Well, keep the dream alive!

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Biden sees a small drop.
Warren rises.
Sanders sees a 2-3% drop.
Kamala stagnant.
Buttigieg stagnant.
Booker, Castro, Gabbard, Williamson, and Yang see small rises.
Delaney, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, and Ryan drop even lower.

[SN2903]

Biden sees a small drop.
Warren rises.
Sanders sees a 2-3% drop.
Kamala stagnant.
Buttigieg stagnant.
Booker, Castro, Gabbard, Williamson, and Yang see small rises.
Delaney, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, and Ryan drop even lower.

Agree with everything except Harris. I think she loses 2-3 pts at least.