If Trump wins in 2020, would Ocasio-Cortez be a frontrunner for 2024?

[Vittorio]

^ The effects of identity politics in a nutshell. It reduces otherwise functional men into broken shells who cry 'Nazi' at everyone who disagrees with them.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

^ The effects of identity politics in a nutshell. It reduces otherwise functional men into broken shells who cry 'Nazi' at everyone who disagrees with them.

I'm surprised you didn't call me a "cuck" and tell me to stop drinking soy. Leftbros and the alt-right are functionally indistinguishable.

[Vittorio]

^ The effects of identity politics in a nutshell. It reduces otherwise functional men into broken shells who cry 'Nazi' at everyone who disagrees with them.

I'm surprised you didn't call me a "cuck" and tell me to stop drinking soy. Leftbros and the alt-right are functionally indistinguishable.

Indeed, the Right has hit on a valid critique of identitarianism, uncouth and vulgar though it may be. Their only error lies in not extending that critique to themselves and their political allies. But I trust this critique will eventually become generalized.

[Gracile]

It is possible, though a lot could happen in the next 4-5 years. I think at least if the losing 2020 nominee was Biden or another centrist Dem there would be a big push to nominate a leftist candidate.

[Fuzzy Bear]

AOC will probably be reelected in 2020, but 2020 brings redistricting, and NY is almost certain to lose a Congressional district, and maybe two districts.

AOC, I suspect, will go the way of Bella Abzug.  Bella Abzug was the AOC of 1970; she won a primary against Rep. Leonard Farbstein (D-Manhattan).  Farbstein was a 14 year incumbent, and a stalwart of the regular Manhattan Democratic organization who was considered the favorite, but Abzug channelled the energy of those parts of the Democratic electorate that were anti-war (Farbstein had supported LBJ's Vietnam policies) and pro-feminist.  She won in an upset, and was an aggressive, irreverent liberal who drew a significant amount of controversy, in part because she was part of the NDC (New Democratic Coalition, the leftist Dems of back in the day, also known as "November Doesn't Count").

Come 1972, there was redistricting.  Abzug's West Side district was combined with the district of an antiwar liberal icon, Rep. William Fitts Ryan, who thrashed Abzug in the Democratic Primary.  The problem, of course, was that the substantial Ryan had terminal cancer and would die in September, 1972.  Not without acrimony from Ryan's widow, Priscilla, Abzug won the Democratic nomination at a convention to fill vacancies, and prevailed in the GE.  She was re-elected to the House in 1974, but then lost three elections in a row.  She lost the Senate Primary to Daniel Patrick Moynihan in 1976.  She lost the Democratic Primary for Mayor of NY in 1977.  And, in a comeback effort, she lost a special election to Republican S. William Green to succeed Ed Koch, the winner of the 1977 race for NYC Mayor.  She never ran for office again.

Abzug's career is an instruction as to what happens in the long run with people who develop an abrasive image.  The irony of is all is that, unlike AOC, who's done very little prior to being elected to Congress on a fluke, Abzug had a long, substantial career in the progressive movement, the women's movement, and the Civil Rights movement.  She was a co-founder of the National Women's Political Caucus, and while I don't agree with much of their agenda, I can't imaging AOC doing something that substantive.  She had a period of substantial and meaningful activism (including legal activism) in the Civil Rights movement.  She had a substantive career after politics as well (she was first elected at age 50). 

I met Bella Abzug personally in 1976 at a house party; a fellow committeewoman was holding an event and I showed up.  In this gathering, she was much different than her public persona; she was warm and personable, and quite knowledgeable of many topics.  I remember asking her what she would do about right-to-work laws and she, to this day, has been the last Democratic politician that that specifically said the words "repeal the Taft-Hartley Act".  I ended up not voting for her.  I voted for Ramsey Clark.  It's a vote I wish I could take back; he's turned out to be a full-bore imbecile.

All in all, Bella Abzug was a politician that, however far from my views she was, earned the "FF" distinction.  AOC can't say that, and she's not making any progress in that regard.  Abzug would, also, have been appalled that Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib would be spokespeople for the Democratic Party.  Bella Abzug is to AOC as Liberal is to Leftist.

[President Johnson]

Maybe on Twitter, but the real world.

I think in this scenario Gretchen Whitmer would emerge as the frontrunner. And I would be very excited with her becoming the first female president.

[7,052,770]

No, she won't be a credible presidential candidate until she's at least in her mid-40s, maybe later depending on how it all times out with incumbents and whatnot.

I do expect her to eventually run (maybe in the 2030s or 2040s), assuming she stays Congress through then. (Or becomes governor or a cabinet member I guess.) She'll probably be a very strong candidate.

[Vittorio]

Anyway, succdems exist to lose. The entire point is to convince people who believe in an electoral road to 'socialism' that that road is permanently closed. AOC being President would not move the working-class of America one step in the direction of a solution to its problems.

[SWE]

She fills a niche that would be within the top three candidates better than anyone I can think of at this point, so probably.

[T'Chenka]

Anyway, succdems exist to lose. The entire point is to convince people who believe in an electoral road to 'socialism' that that road is permanently closed. AOC being President would not move the working-class of America one step in the direction of a solution to its problems.

Uh... what? Can you elaborate? Once she gets into office, are you saying she won't do what she said? Or that the senate will block her? Or the DNC won't let her get in to start? What do you mean exactly?