UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[Zaybay]

Looks like a 'between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place' scenario for the Lib Dems. The publicity of their semi-refusal to join a Unity Government hasnt been playing well on the media so far and, if this situation were to escalate, could damage their reputation as a Remain Party.

On the other hand, the leadership of the Lib Dems is opposed to working with Corbyn on this issue and, even though many backbencher Lib Dem MPs are fine with this deal, without their approval a deal can never happen. The only way the Lib Dem leadership would withdraw their insecurities about an alliance would be if Corbyn were not the PM, but if such a demand were made Labour would probably just recind their idea of a Unity Government. This isnt helped by the fact that the SNP, Greens, Plaid Cleen, and even about 5 or so Tories are fine with the idea of Corbyn as a caretaker and are in talks to form such a government(diminishing the bargaining power of the Lib Dems and increasing the leverage of the Labour Party).

I dont know how this situation will resolve itself, or if this idea will even be in the spotlight for more than a week, but so far the situation has developed not necessarily to the Lib Dem's advantage.

[Zaybay]

Looks like a 'between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place' scenario for the Lib Dems. The publicity of their semi-refusal to join a Unity Government hasnt been playing well on the media so far and, if this situation were to escalate, could damage their reputation as a Remain Party.

On the other hand, the leadership of the Lib Dems is opposed to working with Corbyn on this issue and, even though many backbencher Lib Dem MPs are fine with this deal, without their approval a deal can never happen. The only way the Lib Dem leadership would withdraw their insecurities about an alliance would be if Corbyn were not the PM, but if such a demand were made Labour would probably just recind their idea of a Unity Government. This isnt helped by the fact that the SNP, Greens, Plaid Cleen, and even about 5 or so Tories are fine with the idea of Corbyn as a caretaker and are in talks to form such a government(diminishing the bargaining power of the Lib Dems and increasing the leverage of the Labour Party).

I dont know how this situation will resolve itself, or if this idea will even be in the spotlight for more than a week, but so far the situation has developed not necessarily to the Lib Dem's advantage.

I've only heard of one Tory, Guto Bebb, who is willing to put Corbyn into office so far.  Maybe more will come out, like Greening, who has been quiet for a month now.  I think she's not yet given up on returning to the front bench in a future Tory govt. though, so I can't see her doing it.

I don't see any reason to believe that the former Labour independents like Ian Austin, Frank Field, etc. would ever vote Corbyn into office either for that matter, along with some of the Tiggers who despise him.  Corbyn is a non starter in this parliament.

The Tories I was referring to were:
Guto Bebb
Dominic Grieve
Oliver Letwin
Nick Boles
Caroline Spelman

All are currently in talks with Corbyn on forming a Unity Government. Greening hasnt said anything yet so far.

[Zaybay]

Looks like a 'between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place' scenario for the Lib Dems. The publicity of their semi-refusal to join a Unity Government hasnt been playing well on the media so far and, if this situation were to escalate, could damage their reputation as a Remain Party.

On the other hand, the leadership of the Lib Dems is opposed to working with Corbyn on this issue and, even though many backbencher Lib Dem MPs are fine with this deal, without their approval a deal can never happen. The only way the Lib Dem leadership would withdraw their insecurities about an alliance would be if Corbyn were not the PM, but if such a demand were made Labour would probably just recind their idea of a Unity Government. This isnt helped by the fact that the SNP, Greens, Plaid Cleen, and even about 5 or so Tories are fine with the idea of Corbyn as a caretaker and are in talks to form such a government(diminishing the bargaining power of the Lib Dems and increasing the leverage of the Labour Party).

I dont know how this situation will resolve itself, or if this idea will even be in the spotlight for more than a week, but so far the situation has developed not necessarily to the Lib Dem's advantage.

I've only heard of one Tory, Guto Bebb, who is willing to put Corbyn into office so far.  Maybe more will come out, like Greening, who has been quiet for a month now.  I think she's not yet given up on returning to the front bench in a future Tory govt. though, so I can't see her doing it.

I don't see any reason to believe that the former Labour independents like Ian Austin, Frank Field, etc. would ever vote Corbyn into office either for that matter, along with some of the Tiggers who despise him.  Corbyn is a non starter in this parliament.

The Tories I was referring to were:
Guto Bebb
Dominic Grieve
Oliver Letwin
Nick Boles
Caroline Spelman

All are currently in talks with Corbyn on forming a Unity Government. Greening hasnt said anything yet so far.

Oh.  Grieve has ruled out installing Corbyn though.

Ah, found the article on that. So I guess its more 4 Tory supporters.

I agree that this Unity Government is likely not going to pass at all, but the optics arent favorable to the holdouts.

[Zaybay]

The problem for the Lib Dems in this scenario isnt the logistics of a Unity Government or even the terms it would be on, its the optics.

For the voters who left Labour to side with the Lib Dems over Brexit, this doesnt look good, and the possibility of defection back to Labour is significant(the rock).

For other voters in the Lib Dems and the leadership, even discussing with Corbyn is a horrid move, one that they could never stomach(a hard place).

Only time will tell how this issue evolves, but so far Labour has the optics advantage.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1162638077535444992?s=19

^The poll that shows this is all about stopping No Deal.

[Zaybay]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/corbyn-caretaker-pm-stop-no-deal-brexit-a9064616.html

Jeremy Corbyn is leaving open the option of supporting an alternative caretaker prime minister, as he vows to do “everything necessary to stop a disastrous no-deal Brexit”.

In a speech in the midlands, the Labour leader will not rule out backing a different stopgap, after the Liberal Democrats and rebel Tories dismissed putting him in No 10 to avert a crash-out on 31 October.

Aides said he remained focused on seeking to persuade MPs to back him, if Boris Johnson can be toppled in a no-confidence vote – but described it only as the “simplest and most democratic” solution.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1168546988205518850

[Zaybay]

Even with the convention bounce and YouGov numbers in mind, it still rather disproves the notion I was repeatedly told in this thread a month or so ago that the LD collapse was imminent because they wouldn't make Corbyn PM.

I mean, looking at the aggregate of polling instead of 1 poll shows a better picture of the situation. Its not a Lib Dem collapse, per say, but they have certainly declined while Labour has risen.

[Zaybay]

Even with the convention bounce and YouGov numbers in mind, it still rather disproves the notion I was repeatedly told in this thread a month or so ago that the LD collapse was imminent because they wouldn't make Corbyn PM.

Definite whiff of straw man attached to this post tbh.

Ahem

The danger for the Lib Dems isn't that people who like Corbyn will stop voting for them (which I agree there are very few of) but that those who lent them a vote to stop Brexit think they're blocking an attempt to stop no deal.

For the voters who left Labour to side with the Lib Dems over Brexit, this doesnt look good, and the possibility of defection back to Labour is significant(the rock).

Libdems are a fraud & will from less than 15 seats to less 10 next election

I think everyone is making a fatal flaw in their assumptions here. People who left Labour to the Lib Dems aren't going to like Corbyn... so why would they side with him here?

Because they prioritise stopping no deal. Not exactly difficult to wrap your head round is it

etc., etc.,

Looking at the responses, almost all of them only declare a possible danger, not one that is immediate. The first two speak of a possible danger, and the 4th gives a reason for why such a danger exists. The only one who makes such a declaration that the Lib Dems will fall apart and fail is Shadows, and.....well they're Shadows.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1184894286728499201

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1185605845440180231?s=19

[Zaybay]

The LibDems and SNP have finally shown their true colors, it seems. They don't give a sh*t about stopping BoJo's hard-Brexit deal, or even about taking No Deal off the table. They'll happily throw all that under the bus and let put a hard-right Tory government in power if that allows them to win a few seats.

What a shameful, disgusting bunch of third-rate hacks. If Remainers really want to put their trust in them, they deserve everything that's coming to them.

No. They actually have principles, and are fighting to ensure the UK never leaves the EU. The real hacks are Labour, who refuse to take a definative position and fight hard to stop the greatest threat to the UK in decades.

Hey guys? Neither of you want to see a Conservative majority (granted, the Lib Dems don’t want to see a Labour majority either).

Is there a chance of Labour-SNP-LD somehow getting a majority? And if so, would the SNP ever consider joining a government? I can’t imagine the Lib Dems want to govern with the Conservatives for a long time yet, so I am curious about what kind of coalition could possibly happen.

You might think that, but have you heard anything Swinson has said since she became leader?

Yeah. It's obvious posturing for a Lib-Lab-Grn-SNP election with anyone non Momentum as PM, which is obviously the best realistic solution.

Other parties don't get to dictate to Labour who their leader should be.

Even if Corbyn stepped aside for some reason in that scenario, his successor would also be from the left. Because that is what the majority of the party currently wants.

Every party in a coalition has to make some sort of concession, and the Labour left won't be able to govern alone because that's not what the majority of the UK electorate currantly wants.

This line of reasoning still doesnt make sense. Labour has no reason to not choose someone from the Left(especially considering much of the party/leadership/councils/etc. are now Labour Left). If the Lib Dems are making such ridiculous demands, than they must have won more than 100 seats.

[Zaybay]

So what happens if there is a Conservative-Brexit Majority?
 
Ok, maybe a Conservative PM, but the Brexit party wouldn't allow his deal to pass and would go for no deal, so we would be in the same position as now.

The problem is that the Brexit Party likely wouldnt even have any members of parliament for them to have influence. And even if they were going to pickup seats, the amount of vote splitting that would allow for the BP to get enough seats to be relevant(lets say 15) would almost certainly kill the Conservatives and give Corbyn the premiership.