UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Uhh, I’m sorry, with everything that’s been happening, how the f**k are the Tories actually gaining in the polls?

because risking the country to a UK Hugo Chavez would be far far worse than Hard Brexit. Before you scoff at the comparision, here:

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/309065744954580992

https://www.cnsnews.com/video/flashback-corbyn-calls-hugo-chavez-absolute-legend-every-way

https://labourlist.org/2013/03/thank-you-hugo-

^ Please stop posting in this thread.  You’re embarrassing the rest of us Americans.

Yes, let's restore some previous quality to this thread.

[DINGO Joe]

Today's talks between Jean-Claude Juncker and Boris Johnson in Luxembourg apparently didn't go well. Afterwards, Johnson decided to skip a joint press conference with Luxembourg's prime minister.

Turns out Boris isn't the Incredible Hulk, he's the Invisible Man.

[Tintrlvr]

New YouGov poll out today puts the LDs back in second again. Although they were hitting second a bunch right after the Euros (and first a couple of times), I think it's been a couple of months since they've been in second (and I think not once since Boris became PM), so somewhat notable.

Con: 32 (nc)
LD: 23 (+4)
Lab: 21 (-2)
BXP: 14 (nc)
Green: 4 (-3)

[jaichind]

New YouGov poll out today puts the LDs back in second again. Although they were hitting second a bunch right after the Euros (and first a couple of times), I think it's been a couple of months since they've been in second (and I think not once since Boris became PM), so somewhat notable.

Con: 32 (nc)
LD: 23 (+4)
Lab: 21 (-2)
BXP: 14 (nc)
Green: 4 (-3)

But this is right after the LDEM conference.   I assume after the LAB conference it will swing back.   

[CumbrianLefty]

Its also YouGov, who routinely gives lower Labour scores than other pollsters (which also helps explain how they provided most - even if not all - of the surveys putting the LibDems ahead of them earlier this year)

[jaichind]

Its also YouGov, who routinely gives lower Labour scores than other pollsters (and for that reason also provided most - if not all - of the surveys putting the LibDems ahead of them earlier this year)

I think Yougov underestimates LAB because unlike other pollsters they explicitly offer Greens as a party choice  with other poll only record Greens if the person being polled indicate OTHER and then provide Greens.

[DaWN]

Even with the convention bounce and YouGov numbers in mind, it still rather disproves the notion I was repeatedly told in this thread a month or so ago that the LD collapse was imminent because they wouldn't make Corbyn PM.

[Zaybay]

Even with the convention bounce and YouGov numbers in mind, it still rather disproves the notion I was repeatedly told in this thread a month or so ago that the LD collapse was imminent because they wouldn't make Corbyn PM.

I mean, looking at the aggregate of polling instead of 1 poll shows a better picture of the situation. Its not a Lib Dem collapse, per say, but they have certainly declined while Labour has risen.

[DaWN]

Even with the convention bounce and YouGov numbers in mind, it still rather disproves the notion I was repeatedly told in this thread a month or so ago that the LD collapse was imminent because they wouldn't make Corbyn PM.

I mean, looking at the aggregate of polling instead of 1 poll shows a better picture of the situation. Its not a Lib Dem collapse, per say, but they have certainly declined while Labour has risen.

It's been a fairly minimal decline though and probably attributable to a good couple of weeks for Labour rather than that one event alone - when (not if) Corbyn next sticks his foot in it their numbers may well bounce back up again.

In any case, things were always going to fall a bit for the Lib Dems once the afterglow of the Euros performance disappeared, same with Brexit Party support leaking back to the Tories.

Certainly nothing like some of the predictions in this thread back when it was all going on though - one user unironically said they were going to fall below 2017 levels because of it.

[Silent Hunter]

The Tory conference is going to be very interesting for the local constabulary, that is for sure.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

honestly following BritainElects on Twitter and realising how dumb partisan of all sides are is very amusing. People read so much into these random polls.

[GlobeSoc]

Labour and lib Dems vote splitting is alarming. Vote for (preferred option here) because they will definitely consolidate the vote, the (other side here) are just too weird and bad.

Tactical voting against conservatives is a thing that will be massively necessary if things keep up.

[CumbrianLefty]

Even with the convention bounce and YouGov numbers in mind, it still rather disproves the notion I was repeatedly told in this thread a month or so ago that the LD collapse was imminent because they wouldn't make Corbyn PM.

Definite whiff of straw man attached to this post tbh.

My own view is the LibDems may have got some short term popularity at the cost of longer term problems - but we will likely find out how true (or otherwise) that is before too long

[parochial boy]

I can't help that think that the route that Swinson is taking is actually making a Brexit (of the no deal sorts) more likely. But then again, I also think that she is aware of that, only she is more interested in recreating the Lib Dems as a brand than in actually adhering to her apparent principles (Cameron era minister, let's not forget).

You would hope that people would be able to see through this; but then again, the Lib Dems target voters are essentially the insufferably smug. You know, the kind of numbskull who voted  Conservative in 2015 because Ed Millibans was too radical...

[DaWN]

Even with the convention bounce and YouGov numbers in mind, it still rather disproves the notion I was repeatedly told in this thread a month or so ago that the LD collapse was imminent because they wouldn't make Corbyn PM.

Definite whiff of straw man attached to this post tbh.

Ahem

The danger for the Lib Dems isn't that people who like Corbyn will stop voting for them (which I agree there are very few of) but that those who lent them a vote to stop Brexit think they're blocking an attempt to stop no deal.

For the voters who left Labour to side with the Lib Dems over Brexit, this doesnt look good, and the possibility of defection back to Labour is significant(the rock).

Libdems are a fraud & will from less than 15 seats to less 10 next election

I think everyone is making a fatal flaw in their assumptions here. People who left Labour to the Lib Dems aren't going to like Corbyn... so why would they side with him here?

Because they prioritise stopping no deal. Not exactly difficult to wrap your head round is it

etc., etc.,

 

My own view is the LibDems may have got some short term popularity at the cost of longer term problems - but we will likely find out how true (or otherwise) that is before too long

The possibility certainly exists but nobody can do anything other than make a guess on this. And in any case, lets not pretend any of the other parties are playing the long game either. Especially not Labour.

[Zaybay]

Even with the convention bounce and YouGov numbers in mind, it still rather disproves the notion I was repeatedly told in this thread a month or so ago that the LD collapse was imminent because they wouldn't make Corbyn PM.

Definite whiff of straw man attached to this post tbh.

Ahem

The danger for the Lib Dems isn't that people who like Corbyn will stop voting for them (which I agree there are very few of) but that those who lent them a vote to stop Brexit think they're blocking an attempt to stop no deal.

For the voters who left Labour to side with the Lib Dems over Brexit, this doesnt look good, and the possibility of defection back to Labour is significant(the rock).

Libdems are a fraud & will from less than 15 seats to less 10 next election

I think everyone is making a fatal flaw in their assumptions here. People who left Labour to the Lib Dems aren't going to like Corbyn... so why would they side with him here?

Because they prioritise stopping no deal. Not exactly difficult to wrap your head round is it

etc., etc.,

Looking at the responses, almost all of them only declare a possible danger, not one that is immediate. The first two speak of a possible danger, and the 4th gives a reason for why such a danger exists. The only one who makes such a declaration that the Lib Dems will fall apart and fail is Shadows, and.....well they're Shadows.

[DaWN]

Even with the convention bounce and YouGov numbers in mind, it still rather disproves the notion I was repeatedly told in this thread a month or so ago that the LD collapse was imminent because they wouldn't make Corbyn PM.

Definite whiff of straw man attached to this post tbh.

Ahem

The danger for the Lib Dems isn't that people who like Corbyn will stop voting for them (which I agree there are very few of) but that those who lent them a vote to stop Brexit think they're blocking an attempt to stop no deal.

For the voters who left Labour to side with the Lib Dems over Brexit, this doesnt look good, and the possibility of defection back to Labour is significant(the rock).

Libdems are a fraud & will from less than 15 seats to less 10 next election

I think everyone is making a fatal flaw in their assumptions here. People who left Labour to the Lib Dems aren't going to like Corbyn... so why would they side with him here?

Because they prioritise stopping no deal. Not exactly difficult to wrap your head round is it

etc., etc.,

Looking at the responses, almost all of them only declare a possible danger, not one that is immediate. The first two speak of a possible danger, and the 4th gives a reason for why such a danger exists. The only one who makes such a declaration that the Lib Dems will fall apart and fail is Shadows, and.....well they're Shadows.

Well, yes, fine, but that is rather quibbling over semantics. The point is I wasn't strawmanning.

[Blair]

Its also YouGov, who routinely gives lower Labour scores than other pollsters (which also helps explain how they provided most - even if not all - of the surveys putting the LibDems ahead of them earlier this year)

And who got 2017 correct (along with the EU Elections I think?)

[parochial boy]

Its also YouGov, who routinely gives lower Labour scores than other pollsters (which also helps explain how they provided most - even if not all - of the surveys putting the LibDems ahead of them earlier this year)

And who got 2017 correct (along with the EU Elections I think?)

They wildly overrated the Brexit party in May; and were as wrong as everyone else in 2015.

Safest to assume that any pollsters success the last time round won't have any bearing on how well they do this time round. YouGov just have a marketing strategy tendancy to come out with particularly gimmicky/attention grabbing numbers.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Its also YouGov, who routinely gives lower Labour scores than other pollsters (which also helps explain how they provided most - even if not all - of the surveys putting the LibDems ahead of them earlier this year)

And who got 2017 correct (along with the EU Elections I think?)

2017 was called by their MRP model, not ordinary polling.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its also YouGov, who routinely gives lower Labour scores than other pollsters (which also helps explain how they provided most - even if not all - of the surveys putting the LibDems ahead of them earlier this year)

And who got 2017 correct (along with the EU Elections I think?)

This is a bit of a myth - their CONSTITUENCY MODELLING thing then was almost scarily accurate (and widely disbelieved) but their regular polling not quite as much. Especially since they chickened out with the eve of poll survey which had the Tories winning quite comfortably after some "judicious" (or not, as it transpired) herding.

And though they were quite good on the Euros (save with the BxP) Ipsos-MORI were the closest.

[DINGO Joe]

I understand that way too much can be read into by-elections, as there's quite a bit of variety at the local level in Britain, but it's striking how few of these elections are Lab vs Con.  It seems it's either Lab vs not Lab vote coalescing behind a LD candidate or it's Con vs not Con vote coalescing behind a LD candidate.

[Blair]

Yes to all the above (and I made a point about it’s above before) but I’m still terrified by the prospect that these polls and are right and the short campaign won’t change them and we’ll look back at this period as the same way we look back at late ‘14-15- as a time when we ignored that our leader was a huge block for labour winning an election

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes to all the above (and I made a point about it’s above before) but I’m still terrified by the prospect that these polls and are right and the short campaign won’t change them and we’ll look back at this period as the same way we look back at late ‘14-15- as a time when we ignored that our leader was a huge block for labour winning an election

Well that is perfectly possible, as are many other things.

But equally, 2017 is a powerful argument against the actual campaign not changing anything - not least because it didn't "just happen", but did so for reasons that could well apply again.

Count me as somebody sceptical that dumping Ed M before the 2015 GE would have worked either.

[Pericles]

Yes to all the above (and I made a point about it’s above before) but I’m still terrified by the prospect that these polls and are right and the short campaign won’t change them and we’ll look back at this period as the same way we look back at late ‘14-15- as a time when we ignored that our leader was a huge block for labour winning an election

I wish Corbyn could be unseated soon, there is the electability factor and also so many other reasons he should not be PM (but Labour is of course far better than the Tories and the other parties either aren't actually much better or have no chance of forming a government). The 2016 experience seems to have killed those hopes though, and even if the membership has changed their mind it would probably be too impractical to have a leadership contest at this stage distracting from stopping no-deal and probably too close to a potential election. Hopefully Corbyn does do well campaigning again, but he is even more unpopular than in 2017, and it's far from clear that the 2017 experience can be repeated in these significantly different conditions.