UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[Tintrlvr]

I have never been this excited about British politics before in my entire life.

Well, it's certainly been high-drama from a distance lately.

[Tintrlvr]

Sarah Wollaston (Totnes) has defected from Change UK to the Lib Dems, giving them a total of 14 MPs.

She was technically an independent first. She was one of the ones who left CUK when Soubry took control of the outfit.

[Tintrlvr]

Looks like a 'between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place' scenario for the Lib Dems. The publicity of their semi-refusal to join a Unity Government hasnt been playing well on the media so far and, if this situation were to escalate, could damage their reputation as a Remain Party.

On the other hand, the leadership of the Lib Dems is opposed to working with Corbyn on this issue and, even though many backbencher Lib Dem MPs are fine with this deal, without their approval a deal can never happen. The only way the Lib Dem leadership would withdraw their insecurities about an alliance would be if Corbyn were not the PM, but if such a demand were made Labour would probably just recind their idea of a Unity Government. This isnt helped by the fact that the SNP, Greens, Plaid Cleen, and even about 5 or so Tories are fine with the idea of Corbyn as a caretaker and are in talks to form such a government(diminishing the bargaining power of the Lib Dems and increasing the leverage of the Labour Party).

I dont know how this situation will resolve itself, or if this idea will even be in the spotlight for more than a week, but so far the situation has developed not necessarily to the Lib Dem's advantage.

I've only heard of one Tory, Guto Bebb, who is willing to put Corbyn into office so far.  Maybe more will come out, like Greening, who has been quiet for a month now.  I think she's not yet given up on returning to the front bench in a future Tory govt. though, so I can't see her doing it.

I don't see any reason to believe that the former Labour independents like Ian Austin, Frank Field, etc. would ever vote Corbyn into office either for that matter, along with some of the Tiggers who despise him.  Corbyn is a non starter in this parliament.

The Tories I was referring to were:
Guto Bebb
Dominic Grieve
Oliver Letwin
Nick Boles
Caroline Spelman

All are currently in talks with Corbyn on forming a Unity Government. Greening hasnt said anything yet so far.

Not sure about the others but Grieve specifically ruled out supporting Corbyn for PM today. So he is out.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/16/dominic-grieve-jeremy-corbyn-no-10-labour-brexit

Maybe John McDonnell would be the "compromise" PM? Lets the anti-Corbynites say they didn't install Corbyn but still installs someone who is viewed as a friend by the Corbyn faction.

[Tintrlvr]

If it comes to an election I wonder if LDEM will form an alliance with the Greens.  Doing so can greatly threaten the CON in the South as such an alliance can draw anti-CON LAB tactical voters.  Not sure if such an alliance can work in practice. 

They were very close to establishing such an alliance last month. It got put on hold seemingly by the kerfuffle over whether the LDs would support Corbyn as a replacement PM for Johnson. But the fundamental problem is that there's a severe dearth of seats where the LDs can reasonably be asked to stand aside for the Greens, which makes such an alliance unappealing for the Greens.

[Tintrlvr]

There are now more Independent MPs (of various descriptors) than at any time since the modern party system emerged in parliament over two centuries ago. There are 40 such MPs even if you exclude Elphicke, which means they overtake the SNP as the third biggest group in the HoC.

Change UK is clearly a political party even if a moribund one, so I think we should say 35 instead of 40 "true" independents.

[Tintrlvr]

Speaking of possible national unity government, the combined force of the Tory dissenders that had their whip withdrawn, Labour and Liberal Democrats posses only 284 votes, which is well short of the required majority of 326. Such a coalition would require additional votes from other groups, and this is where it becomes tricky. The SNP has a substantial numbers (35 MPs), but it's the party that's fundamentally opposed to preserving the Union, and thus a strange candidate. A "confidence and supply" could be a diffrent matter, though.

So, if we were to add remaining non-separatist, pro-European parties to the mix, we'll still have only 298 votes. There are also a few independents (discounting the Tory dissidents), but I dare not to weight on this here.

And there's another problem with the Tory dissidents: they're not really a monolithic group and some are already expressing interest to get back on as soon as possible.

At this point I think it's not impossible for Boris to hang on just like May had, despite losing a vote after vote, simply because the opposition has no means of forming a viable government, and I don't see anybody wanting a snap election at this point.

The SNP would have no problem supporting a national unity government and have made clear that thye'd be glad to do so (although they among the opposition parties would most prefer a new election). The conflict is over who would lead that government (Corbyn is not an acceptable choice to the LDs or the ex-Tories, and most Labourites would reject a non-Labour option), not who would join it.

[Tintrlvr]

Girly swot?!

Are we surprised that this is the way he thinks?

Although tbh I recall some Labourites making comparable statements in the 2009-2010 era.

[Tintrlvr]

Girly swot?!

Are we surprised that this is the way he thinks?

Although tbh I recall some Labourites making comparable statements in the 2009-2010 era.

I don't, do you have any actual sources?

To be clear, I didn't mean politicians specifically (nor to make a "both sides do it" comment), just that Cameron being called "girly" or equivalents is not something new, including from the left/Labour supporters on occasion. The following is from a left-wing journalist in 2012, a description of him as having an "overdeveloped feminine side", for example:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/sep/09/catherine-bennett-david-cameron-women

Also a funny one (not from a British figure):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/8064541/Arnold-Schwarzenegger-tells-David-Cameron-Dont-be-an-economic-girlyman.html

This is a quick Google search; turning up old articles about off-hand comments that weren't really considered controversial at the time is difficult, of course.

[Tintrlvr]

Catherine Bennett is "left wing", you say. Hmmm.......

(her recent partner - a certain John Humphrys - would certainly struggle to be described as such)

Perhaps one shouldn't be judged by their choice of partners - but read through this series of bylines and tell me she's not a left-winger.

https://www.theguardian.com/profile/catherinebennett

Anyway, stupid argument. Unacceptable attitude for Johnson. He's the only one talking about David Cameron in 2019 regardless. And, while Cameron was certainly criticized in the past for being "girly" also by some political opponents, that doesn't make criticism today by other political opponents better.

[Tintrlvr]

New YouGov poll out today puts the LDs back in second again. Although they were hitting second a bunch right after the Euros (and first a couple of times), I think it's been a couple of months since they've been in second (and I think not once since Boris became PM), so somewhat notable.

Con: 32 (nc)
LD: 23 (+4)
Lab: 21 (-2)
BXP: 14 (nc)
Green: 4 (-3)

[Tintrlvr]

So much for Remain strategic voting for Labour...

[Tintrlvr]

Stephen Hepburn (Jarrow) has been suspended from Labour over a sexual harassment allegation.

I was looking into the electoral history for Jarrow, and does anyone know why the Irish Parliamentary Party was standing there in the 1907 by-election? They got a non-derisory result, too.

[Tintrlvr]

You are extremely trusting of Swinson - even gullibly so, some might say.

But apparently everyone should put their trust in Jeremy Corbyn.

[Tintrlvr]

Nobody has yet made a conclusive case that any of the other names banded around could actually win a majority of MPs if the actual leader of the opposition can't - its mere hand waving assertion and wishful thinking.

Now this is utter nonsense and totally disingenuous. It's really obvious that all of the names thrown out (Clarke, Harman, Beckett, even the hilarious suggestion of Bercow) would be able to command a majority - unless, of course, Jeremy Corbyn chose his own ego over supporting them.

[Tintrlvr]

Is it too late for the Sinn Fein MPs to now take their seats and vote on the deal tomorrow?

Absolutely 0% chance that happens.

It would be amazing drama if the deal failed or passed because the SF MPs randomly showed up to vote on it, though. (Agree it could never happen.)

[Tintrlvr]

Boris Johnson's "the will of the people always overrules the rule of law" approach to politics is really a throwback to much darker times. If the people of the UK would vote in a referendum to, let's say, chemically castrate all the gays and Parliament would pass an act to the contrary would he still go ahead and chemically castrate all the gays because he must follow the will of the people?

Positively Cromwellian, really. I'm sure he would appreciate the comparison.

[Tintrlvr]

The SNP is seriously making a name for itself. I imagine if they keep this up, they’ll reach their 2015 results, right?

It seems pretty certain that the Tories will lose most of their 2017 gains in Scotland, and likewise the decline of the Tory vote and weakening of unionist tactical voting will sweep away Labour's gains, too. The Lib Dems should hold on to their 2017 gains and maybe make 1-3 more from the SNP, though. So on net the SNP will be slightly below 2015 but probably still above 50 seats. I would predict 51 seats for the SNP, to pull a number slightly from the air.

[Tintrlvr]

Will the Lib Dems get 100 seats or will they get a little bit above Clegg's 2010 seat count?

I'd be very surprised (and elated) if they got more than Clegg did in 2010

That would almost certainly mean (as then) no Tory majority.

Well, let's hope so.

[Tintrlvr]

So the left-wingers and liberals want to give the vote not only to 16-year-olds but also to EU nationals living in the UK. So I could move to the UK tomorrow and if there's a general election the day after my arrival I could vote? What's the sense in that? Seemingly it would make the whole institution of citizenship irrelevant: why would people even seek to become nationalized citizens if they can vote regardless?

You would have to be registered, which is required to be done in advance, so people who arrive the day before can't vote. The UK already allows European citizens who aren't UK citizens to vote in local government elections and European elections, so it's just general elections for which this would be a change. And, as noted, the UK also already allows Commonwealth citizens (and citizens of Ireland) who aren't UK citizens to vote in general elections, so it's not a new concept vis-a-vis general elections, either.