UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1184894286728499201

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1184894286728499201

Impressive.  Johnson is further ahead in the count then I thought he would be.  Most of the CON anti no deal rebels must be voting for this deal.

[CumbrianLefty]

Most other estimates show the deal still losing narrowly, but who knows?

(and MPs support for May's deal tended to be overestimated on all three occasions)

[jaichind]

Comres snap poll has 40 for Johnson deal 31 oppose 29 dk

[jaichind]

Does this deal with the way it ia treating NI mean that CON is no longer a Unionist party and turning into a party of English nationalism

[Lord Halifax]

The 13 unknown are:

Ivan Lewis (IND)
Anne Milton (IND)
Mike Hill (IND)
Amber Rudd (IND)
Richard Benyon (IND)
Justine Greening (IND)
Philip Hammond (IND)
Jared O'Mara (IND)
Margot James (IND)
Stephen Kinnock (LAB)
Melanie Onn (LAB)
Jim Fitzpatrick (LAB)
Kate Hoey (LAB)

But Kinnock and Hammond should be for and Hoey against. How do you expect the rest to vote?

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1184894286728499201

Motherf**king Bercow, to save or destroy the UK as his final act. What a world.

The 13 unknown are:

Ivan Lewis (IND)
Anne Milton (IND)
Mike Hill (IND)
Amber Rudd (IND)
Richard Benyon (IND)
Justine Greening (IND)
Philip Hammond (IND)
Jared O'Mara (IND)
Margot James (IND)
Stephen Kinnock (LAB)
Melanie Onn (LAB)
Jim Fitzpatrick (LAB)
Kate Hoey (LAB)

But Kinnock and Hammond should be for and Hoey against. How do you expect the rest to vote?

The future of the country is (partially) in the hands of Jared O'Mara. This is what the UK gets for murdering Nick Clegg.

[Pericles]

If the vote is actually a tie the deal does not pass, as per Speaker Denison's rule which states that the Speaker will vote for the status quo as there should be a positive majority for a change ("it is not for the chair to create a majority that doesn’t otherwise exist."-John Bercow) This was already used earlier this year when Bercow had to tie-break a 310-310 vote and so voted against a further round of indicative votes.

[Intell]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1184894286728499201

Motherf**king Bercow, to save or destroy the UK as his final act. What a world.

The 13 unknown are:

Ivan Lewis (IND)
Anne Milton (IND)
Mike Hill (IND)
Amber Rudd (IND)
Richard Benyon (IND)
Justine Greening (IND)
Philip Hammond (IND)
Jared O'Mara (IND)
Margot James (IND)
Stephen Kinnock (LAB)
Melanie Onn (LAB)
Jim Fitzpatrick (LAB)
Kate Hoey (LAB)

But Kinnock and Hammond should be for and Hoey against. How do you expect the rest to vote?

The future of the country is (partially) in the hands of Jared O'Mara. This is what the UK gets for murdering Nick Clegg.

He murderd himself getting in bed with the tories.

[The Free North]

Were Labour MPs not threatened with removal from the party if they voted for a deal just a few days ago?

[LabourJersey]

Does this deal with the way it ia treating NI mean that CON is no longer a Unionist party and turning into a party of English nationalism

The Tories have been the party of specifically English nationalism for ages. Tories don't actually care about Northern Ireland aside from it being a symbol that some remnant of the Empire remains; it's just that Brexit has put their utter indifference to the people of NI out in the open.

[Pericles]

Wilson added that the DUP made concessions with the Prime Minister in order to help him get a deal but suspected he would do what was best for the Conservative Party.

“We are disappointed he didn’t stick to the red lines he said he would,” the east Belfast MP said

He also voiced the view that a successful election could help Mr Johnson get a better deal.

“I believe, with a big majority, he can be more robust in his negotiations,” Mr Wilson added.

“It is one of the reasons why we believe that voting this down tomorrow is not the end of the game but in fact probably opens up possibilities for the Government that are not available at present but will be after a general election.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/18/boris-johnson-launches-frantic-sales-pitch-of-brexit-deal-ahead-of-commons-vote-politics-live
Lmao at the DUP's stance here, if they get their way that'd be probably the fourth or fifth attempt to negotiate into existence the 'alternative arrangements' unicorn. Still, I could totally see some ERGers agreeing with them and voting the same way.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Merkel: Extension unavoidable if Parliament rejects deal.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/18/brexit-extension-unavoidable-if-mps-reject-deal-says-merkel

[jaichind]

Yougov snap poll has 41 to 24 on should parliament approve the Johnson deal.  For leave voters it is 67 to 10. If so CON can expect good number of BXP tactical voting in the next election. for LAB voters it is 25 to 35. 

[jaichind]

Yougov poll also had Johnson deal vs no deal vs remain at 30 bs 17 vs 38. Leave voters is 48 vs 33 vs 7.  Remain voters it is 17 vs 4 vs 73

[jaichind]

Is it too late for the Sinn Fein MPs to now take their seats and vote on the deal tomorrow?

[jaichind]

Macron Says U.K. Must Not Get New Delay if Parliament Vote Fails

[CumbrianLefty]

Macron Says U.K. Must Not Get New Delay if Parliament Vote Fails

The usual posturing stuff from him, ignore.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Macron Says U.K. Must Not Get New Delay if Parliament Vote Fails

The usual posturing stuff from him, ignore.

"No new deal" also isn't the same as "no new extension", since Macron apparently leaves the door open for another extension in which Johnson's promises to get the necessary majority to pass this deal by holding a snap election.

[The Free North]

Is it too late for the Sinn Fein MPs to now take their seats and vote on the deal tomorrow?

Absolutely 0% chance that happens.

[Tintrlvr]

Is it too late for the Sinn Fein MPs to now take their seats and vote on the deal tomorrow?

Absolutely 0% chance that happens.

It would be amazing drama if the deal failed or passed because the SF MPs randomly showed up to vote on it, though. (Agree it could never happen.)

[CumbrianLefty]

It is good that Johnson's deal will get more scrutiny if that happens, if nothing else. His attempt to bounce MPs into supporting it even before all the details have been made public is typically disreputable.

Personally, though I used to be against another referendum I now think it is the only way to settle things.

[brucejoel99]

Looks likely that with Labour support the Letwin amendment will be passed tomorrow, which means that we wont get the vote on the deal tommorow after all, and that he will have to pass implementation legislation first. This is to close the loophole in the Benn act, but it also means that a short extension will likely be necessary and just delays the whole thing a bit.

God damn it. I was really ready for super exciting Saturday tomorrow.

Yep, can-kicking amendment, basically.

It's the wise move to make, though, as right now, BoJo is trying to ram it through without MP's being able to see the details, & those details are more likely to turn MP's off the deal than onto it.

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1185236708259819521

For what its worth..

[CumbrianLefty]

No "concessions" mean a thing unless they are actually written into law.

Any Labour MP who just trusts "assurances" from Johnson is not fit to represent the party.