UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[brucejoel99]

No "concessions" mean a thing unless they are actually written into law.

Any Labour MP who just trusts "assurances" from Johnson is not fit to represent the party.

Considering he seems to have sold the deal to one group as a way of achieving no deal & another as a means of avoiding it, I'm beginning to wonder just how gullible MPs really are.

[Omega21]

What is the issue people on the Left have with his plan?

[cp]

What is the issue people on the Left have with his plan?

The fact that is ends the UK's membership in the EU is a pretty big problem with it for most people on 'the Left' (kind of a meaningless term in this context).

From an economic interventionist perspective, the deal removes significant guarantees for labour standards, working conditions, environmental regulations, and corporate accountability that are enshrined in EU law. The deal doesn't specifically repeal them, but it grants carte blanche to a government that would wish to. Moreover, with the exception of Northern Ireland, the deal will result in a new no deal cliff edge in 2021 or 2022 when the transition period runs out provided the UK and the EU haven't concluded a new free trade agreement (which itself would have virtually no 'floor' for ruinous deregulation)

Socially/diplomatically/politically, the deal rips the UK from countless institutions of cultural, social, technological, and educational cooperation that have been built up over decades. Relatedly, participation in cooperation with EU agencies along these lines will become a matter of endless rancour and debate; it gives license to the lunatic fringe of xenophobic jingoism.

Finally, not quite a """left""" objection, but the government is insisting upon passing the deal without any parliamentary scrutiny, nevermind economic impact assessment.

[Blair]

The 13 unknown are:

Ivan Lewis (IND) against
Anne Milton (IND) against
Mike Hill (IND) against
Amber Rudd (IND) for
Richard Benyon (IND) for public
Justine Greening (IND) against
Philip Hammond (IND) against
Jared O'Mara (IND) no vote
Margot James (IND) for public
Stephen Kinnock (LAB) against
Melanie Onn (LAB) for public
Jim Fitzpatrick (LAB) for
Kate Hoey (LAB) against

But Kinnock and Hammond should be for and Hoey against. How do you expect the rest to vote?

[Omega21]

What is the issue people on the Left have with his plan?

The fact that is ends the UK's membership in the EU is a pretty big problem with it for most people on 'the Left' (kind of a meaningless term in this context).

From an economic interventionist perspective, the deal removes significant guarantees for labour standards, working conditions, environmental regulations, and corporate accountability that are enshrined in EU law. The deal doesn't specifically repeal them, but it grants carte blanche to a government that would wish to. Moreover, with the exception of Northern Ireland, the deal will result in a new no deal cliff edge in 2021 or 2022 when the transition period runs out provided the UK and the EU haven't concluded a new free trade agreement (which itself would have virtually no 'floor' for ruinous deregulation)

Socially/diplomatically/politically, the deal rips the UK from countless institutions of cultural, social, technological, and educational cooperation that have been built up over decades. Relatedly, participation in cooperation with EU agencies along these lines will become a matter of endless rancour and debate; it gives license to the lunatic fringe of xenophobic jingoism.

Finally, not quite a """left""" objection, but the government is insisting upon passing the deal without any parliamentary scrutiny, nevermind economic impact assessment.

Yeah, I meant what's the issue for everyone except the Tories lol.

I do see where you're coming from, I didn't know so many things would still be up in the air even after the deal.

I honestly never even understood some of the reason as to why the UK is leaving. Part of the Brexit campaign was based on Migrants and Asylum Seekers (at least what I saw from the posters), but that actually doesn't make sense, since these people were not from the EU anyway, and the 3rd world Immigrants/Refugees will still continue hiding in Trucks trying to make it across after the UK is out anyway.

In any case, thanks for the detailed answer, and I have another question.

If/Once you leave, will you be treated the same as every other "3rd Country" (non-EU) in terms of immigrating to Europe, or will you keep at least some privileges?

[jaichind]

Betfair odds right seems to have odds of Meaningful Vote to pass tomorrow at around 53.6% vs 46.4%

[MillennialModerate]

If it passes then Boris will win a landslide and Farage is toast, forever.

Really the deal is awful. It’s the worst of both worlds for the UK. Don’t get the benefits of a clean break and don’t get the benefits of being a member either. Shame.

[brucejoel99]

Betfair odds right seems to have odds of Meaningful Vote to pass tomorrow at around 53.6% vs 46.4%

Those odds would seem to assume that all Tory MPs will vote for the deal, which is certainly possible, but far from confirmed. The Burges Group, for example, is going in very hard on Twitter against BoJo's deal. I don't doubt that a lot of them will indeed vote for it (Andrew Bridgen, for example, has already said he would), but I'd be shocked if there aren't at least a few hardliners who refuse to do so.

If it passes then Boris will win a landslide and Farage is toast, forever.

Really the deal is awful. It’s the worst of both worlds for the UK. Don’t get the benefits of a clean break and don’t get the benefits of being a member either. Shame.

There are no benefits of a "clean break" (i.e. no-deal).

[Lord Halifax]

Betfair odds right seems to have odds of Meaningful Vote to pass tomorrow at around 53.6% vs 46.4%

Those odds would seem to assume that all Tory MPs will vote for the deal, which is certainly possible, but far from confirmed. The Burges Group, for example, is going in very hard on Twitter against BoJo's deal. I don't doubt that a lot of them will indeed vote for it (Andrew Bridgen, for example, has already said he would), but I'd be shocked if there aren't at least a few hardliners who refuse to do so.

If it passes then Boris will win a landslide and Farage is toast, forever.

Really the deal is awful. It’s the worst of both worlds for the UK. Don’t get the benefits of a clean break and don’t get the benefits of being a member either. Shame.

There are no benefits of a "clean break" (i.e. no-deal).

They would get full control over immigration policy (no freedom of movement).

[brucejoel99]

Betfair odds right seems to have odds of Meaningful Vote to pass tomorrow at around 53.6% vs 46.4%

Those odds would seem to assume that all Tory MPs will vote for the deal, which is certainly possible, but far from confirmed. The Burges Group, for example, is going in very hard on Twitter against BoJo's deal. I don't doubt that a lot of them will indeed vote for it (Andrew Bridgen, for example, has already said he would), but I'd be shocked if there aren't at least a few hardliners who refuse to do so.

If it passes then Boris will win a landslide and Farage is toast, forever.

Really the deal is awful. It’s the worst of both worlds for the UK. Don’t get the benefits of a clean break and don’t get the benefits of being a member either. Shame.

There are no benefits of a "clean break" (i.e. no-deal).

They would get full control over immigration policy (no freedom of movement).

Yes, but freedom of movement is more economically beneficial for the UK than the lack thereof, so on balance, it's still not a benefit.

[Lord Halifax]

Betfair odds right seems to have odds of Meaningful Vote to pass tomorrow at around 53.6% vs 46.4%

Those odds would seem to assume that all Tory MPs will vote for the deal, which is certainly possible, but far from confirmed. The Burges Group, for example, is going in very hard on Twitter against BoJo's deal. I don't doubt that a lot of them will indeed vote for it (Andrew Bridgen, for example, has already said he would), but I'd be shocked if there aren't at least a few hardliners who refuse to do so.

If it passes then Boris will win a landslide and Farage is toast, forever.

Really the deal is awful. It’s the worst of both worlds for the UK. Don’t get the benefits of a clean break and don’t get the benefits of being a member either. Shame.

There are no benefits of a "clean break" (i.e. no-deal).

They would get full control over immigration policy (no freedom of movement).

Yes, but freedom of movement is more economically beneficial for the UK than the lack thereof, so on balance, it's still not a benefit.

Not everything is about economics.

[jaichind]

Betfair odds of Meaningful Vote to pass tomorrow has now risen to around 59%

[jaichind]

Survation poll

[Pericles]

The results for the extension and referendum questions are weird-the 47% who want a second referendum is 8% higher than the 39% who want an extension, even in the fantasyland that is British politics nobody can seriously think a referendum can be done by October 31, right? Plus it's interesting that people think the UK made more concessions by a 32-point margin (biggest margin in the entire poll). Also kind of weird that more people want MPs to pass the deal than actually support it.

[Blair]

People make decisions on this based on what their favourite political actors say; people don’t actually know what this deal is. I’m very much of the view that all Brexit polling is useless.

All they see is Brexit, deal, pass.... of course it doesn’t help that we treat it like a reality TV show with the vote counting.

[Ebsy]

So Letwin is likely to pass, and the government is apparently saying if it does their will be no meaningful vote today. So this all may end in farcical anticlimax and delay.

[Ebsy]

Norman Lamb, the only leave-sympathetic LibDem, is voting against. The math for this deal to pass is looking very shaky indeed.

[MillennialModerate]

Can someone explain the basis by which people think it will pass?

If the DUP oppose, Labour opposes, SNP opposes and the Lib Dems oppose ...

They’d be short even with ALL of the “Independent-Conservatives” right?

[Ebsy]

Johnson needs around 10 Labour votes to get it through. Either way it will be close.

[MillennialModerate]

I would absolutely vote against this deal.

But then again I’m a political anomaly because if I was British I would be a Blairite New Labour voter but here’s the kicker ... one that supports LEAVE and actually doesn’t mind Nigel Farage (not withstanding his partnership with Trump who I naturally despise).

Yet, all indications are it will pass.

[MillennialModerate]

Johnson needs around 10 Labour votes to get it through. Either way it will be close.

This is what’s interesting is the Labour/Leave constituencies in the Northeast especially.

A lot of those MP’s who are on the fence about the deal are likely thinking I’ll be voted out if I vote against it. But that’s a miscalculation: (They obviously should vote based on what they think is best for their country, but if they’re on the fence and thinking about political consequences) Every single vote will make a huge difference so voting for it helps it to pass, while if it gets voted down that puts Labour (and Brexit party for that matter) in a much MUCH better position for a General election. Thus for those Labour Leave areas, I think it’s crucial for those MP’s that whatever they vote it ends up being the actual result

[jaichind]

Betfair odds for Johnson deal to pass today now down to around 37%.   Most likely because it seems now that Letwin amendment would pass which makes the vote on the Johnson deal moot today.

[CumbrianLefty]

The trouble is that too many MPs (anti-Corbyn Labour ones especially) have bought into this cod-Burkean fantasy that people vote for them solely due to their transcendental individual brilliance.

[jaichind]

There are rumors that DUP might abstain on Letwin.  Betfair odds for Johnson deal to pass today up a bit to 40%.

[CumbrianLefty]

Latest rumour is that they will in fact support it.