UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[cp]

Yes, the idea of any of the EU-27 vetoing a British extension request is laughable, though it's pretty par for the course given the litany of other pipe dreams Leave supporters have told themselves and everyone else for the past 4 years.

What I find fascinating is how the request for *Hungary* to veto the extension is always brought up. As noted above, the UK has stronger historical and economic ties to smaller, so presumably more persuadable countries, like Malta (other candidates might include Portugal and Poland, though the latter isn't smaller than Hungary). To me, it shows how closely current anti-EU/Leaver thinking is tied up with the populist/authoritarian delirium of the past few years. It's less rooted in older, deeper, and more durable traditions of British politics and diplomacy. That kinda gives me hope

[IceAgeComing]

The "Farage should become a Commissioner" thing shows inherently the ignorance that a lot of people have with how the Commission is appointed and runs.

We can assume I think that the proposed new College will be approved in some point by the time an extension would be agreed: and in the short term Julian King would likely hang around for a while until the next UK Commissioner is appointed.  King was inherently given a position (Security Union) that is inherently one that's a little fake with the plan always being to meld that back into the 27 other portfolios on Brexit: an initial bit of sensible early planning to make the process easier for the Union.  So there isn't this hurry for the UK to appoint someone else: King seems perfectly content on the Commission; its a job he never expected to have for this long and he seems to enjoy it so I doubt that he'd resign to force a change.

The second thing is that the European Parliament has to approve a new Commissioner separately that's appointed outwith the official cycle.  And there's basically no chance that Farage in particular would get through this: the first stage is a check for financial conflicts of interests and financial issues has been an issue for Farage in Brussels for a long time so I think he'd fall there: if not then whatever minor powerful portfolio he'd be given (we'll get back to this) would dictate which of the Parliamentary committees would have to question and approve him and he's spent the best part of 20 years pissing off everyone in the European Parliament so good luck with that one.  If he manages to get through THAT then its a vote of the collective parliament and, well, I think we know how that ends.  The Commissioner candidate also has to be approved by the Commission President and von den Leyen isn't going to be rushing to have the guy in her Commission.  So basically from that stand point by itself the idea is a non-starter.

Even if we ignore the inherent problems there are with appointing him: people seem to think that the Commission is something that he could come in and intentionally  around with to force Brexit or something.  The Commission sort of runs like a mixture of a government and the senior civil service: decisions are sometimes collectively made (with the President leading things naturally) but each Commissioner has a portfolio that they are responsible for: not just for major policy issues but also some very boring things like Directorates-General structure and things like this.  These portfolio's are given out by the Commission President, much in the same way that a Prime Minister will dole out Cabinet positions.  Its in the power of the Commission President to refuse to give a portfolio to a Commissioner effectively making them not overly powerful within the Commission; especially if the other Commissioners basically agree to sideline them.  So Farage being a Commissioner would be an awkward nuisance but would hardly be something that the EU would be overly worried about.

Same thing with the proposed messing with the EU Budget: the old Budget would roll over and they'd probably just deal with it post-Brexit: not a massive worry but a little annoying.

[parochial boy]

Tbf re-a Maltese veto; it is well known that there are very few things Joseph Muscat won't do if the price is right.

Maybe just stay away from cars for the next few years afterwards...

[Skill and Chance]

Wonder if Lib Dems will overtake Labour and be the next non-Tory government?

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.ft.com/content/2d8aee46-e42f-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc

The last time a British prime minister was dismissed was in 1834, when William IV dismissed Lord Melbourne.

Looks like I was right when I said Queen firing Boris is different from a VONC taking him down.

[brucejoel99]

https://www.ft.com/content/2d8aee46-e42f-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc

The last time a British prime minister was dismissed was in 1834, when William IV dismissed Lord Melbourne.

Looks like I was right when I said Queen firing Boris is different from a VONC taking him down.

This article is paywalled.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.ft.com/content/2d8aee46-e42f-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc

The last time a British prime minister was dismissed was in 1834, when William IV dismissed Lord Melbourne.

Looks like I was right when I said Queen firing Boris is different from a VONC taking him down.

This article is paywalled.

To dismiss a prime minister and his or her government on the monarch's own authority. This was last done in Britain in 1834 by King William IV.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_power

[brucejoel99]

https://www.ft.com/content/2d8aee46-e42f-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc

The last time a British prime minister was dismissed was in 1834, when William IV dismissed Lord Melbourne.

Looks like I was right when I said Queen firing Boris is different from a VONC taking him down.

This article is paywalled.

To dismiss a prime minister and his or her government on the monarch's own authority. This was last done in Britain in 1834 by King William IV.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_power

Okay, yes, the Queen can't willy-nilly decide to dismiss BoJo. But nobody's been suggesting that. A potential dismissal will only come into play if it's been made clear that BoJo no longer has (& somebody else has gained) the confidence of a majority of the Commons. And yes, in that instance, the Queen would have a duty to dismiss, let alone the ability to do so.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1186839/brexit-news-boris-johnson-hungary-viktor-orban-nigel-farage-dominic-grieve-no-deal

Hungary angle again.  I think a better EU country for Johnson to bribe would be Malta.  Something like a promise of a naval base in return for a veto.

 Probably too late to respect the results of the 1956 referendum on our end.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Okay, yes, the Queen can't willy-nilly decide to dismiss BoJo.

Not correct, she can. But it would be extraordinarily messy. Important to note, of course, that the present government does not have a majority in the Commons.

[KaiserDave]

% that Elizabeth dissolves Parliament?

I know it's an absurd statement, but cmon, look around.

[brucejoel99]

% that Elizabeth dissolves Parliament?

I know it's an absurd statement, but cmon, look around.

Literally 0%, as the dissolution of Parliament is no longer part of the Royal Prerogative.

[Silent Hunter]

Stephen Hepburn (Jarrow) has been suspended from Labour over a sexual harassment allegation.

[CumbrianLefty]

As with a few other MPs who have been the subject of such allegations, there have been rumours about him for a while. Of course his neighbouring S Tyneside member is in bother of her own.

[UncleSam]

LOL Boris Johnson is not going to be removed by the queen, how absurd.

[brucejoel99]

LOL Boris Johnson is not going to be removed by the queen, how absurd.

Again, yes, the Queen won't willy-nilly dismiss BoJo. But nobody is suggesting that. A potential dismissal will only come into play if it's been made clear that BoJo no longer has (& somebody else has gained) the confidence of a majority of the Commons. And yes, in that instance, the Queen would have a duty to dismiss, let alone the ability to do so.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As with a few other MPs who have been the subject of such allegations, there have been rumours about him for a while. Of course his neighbouring S Tyneside member is in bother of her own.

Not even just rumours: there were local press stories that were not shot down with litigation. The accusations do appear to be more serious than some of the others. Of course it isn't just MPs and would-be MPs that there have been complaints about...

[Tintrlvr]

Stephen Hepburn (Jarrow) has been suspended from Labour over a sexual harassment allegation.

I was looking into the electoral history for Jarrow, and does anyone know why the Irish Parliamentary Party was standing there in the 1907 by-election? They got a non-derisory result, too.

[Lord Halifax]

Heidi Allen has joined the Lib Dems.

https://twitter.com/IanSollom/status/1181298780244762626

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Saw the following which completely explains Brexit in my opinion:
https://twitter.com/Jolly_Jack/status/1180159268781248515

[IceAgeComing]

https://www.ft.com/content/2d8aee46-e42f-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc

The last time a British prime minister was dismissed was in 1834, when William IV dismissed Lord Melbourne.

Looks like I was right when I said Queen firing Boris is different from a VONC taking him down.

Here’s a fundamental issue: Parliament cannot outright kick out a Prime Minister.  It can pass a Vote of No Confidence in the Prime Minister and if in two weeks it hasn’t passed a Vote of Confidence the an election will happen.  The expectation is that in a case like this the incumbent Prime Minister would resign and the new one would come in in plenty of time.  The fundamental issue is that no one thinks the Prime Minister would resign even if Parliament has someone that would pass a confidence vote so it puts the Palace in a sticky position where it either has to remain idle and effectively demonstrate that the government can just force an election on a majority vote or assert itself to upload the principles of the FTPA but also enter the sphere of politics.  Basically the law is terrible and should have been drafted better.

[Lumine]

Johnson and Merkel discussed the proposed "deal" in a telephone call and it seems it was an utter disaster.

The Government appears to be pretending to want a deal still, but with the blame game having already started I have to wonder when they will formally announce they'll go with No Deal and whether the Opposition will get its act together to go with a VONC.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I like it when Dominic Cummings gets drunk and briefs to journalists whatever hard-sounding nonsense that comes into his head and they run with it as a massive bombshell story.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Johnson says a deal with the EU is impossible? Sounds like he's in over his head. Maybe Johnson should let Trump have a crack at it... he only makes the best deals!

[CumbrianLefty]

Johnson and Merkel discussed the proposed "deal" in a telephone call and it seems it was an utter disaster.

The Government appears to be pretending to want a deal still, but with the blame game having already started I have to wonder when they will formally announce they'll go with No Deal and whether the Opposition will get its act together to go with a VONC.

Simply not legally possible on Oct 31 at least, it is amazing how many still refuse to accept this. Without a deal they will now be forced to extend A50, the line will become "that was the fault of everybody else, not us".