UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[cp]

The smartest thing for Boris to do would be to call an election with No Deal as the official manifesto, allow BP to die, deselect anybody who can't accept that it's part of the manifesto, roll over the divided Remainers and pretend to the tired public that no deal would represent an end to this stupid phase.

Is it that smart, though? Standing on a manifesto to pursue a hard Brexit with a deal was what the Tories did in 2017; UKIP collapsed and they *still* didn't win. A manifesto with an explicit no-deal pledge (rather than as a last resort if a deal is impossible), as Farage has insisted would be required,  seems much more likely to be a net vote loser for the Tories. Sure, they might pick up a lot of Brexit Party support in the midlands and the north, but most of those seats have such huge Labour margins it wouldn't win the Tories many seats. Meanwhile, a no deal platform could see the Tories lose everything they have in Scotland, London, and any university/market towns in the SE.

Maybe I'm more pessimestic than you, because I think there are a fair decent number of seats in areas like South Yorkshire and Tees Valley that could fall in such an election - at least more than the total Tory seats in England and Wales that would probably fall in the event of a Hard Brexit manifesto (especially if Lib Dems are hiving off the Hard Remainers from Labour's total numbers in the aforementioned market towns etc).

Even London etc is tricky. We already saw the cocky predictions that Labour made for the locals, where they confidently stated the pro-Labour trend in London was inevitable. The three Barnet marginals, for example, are going to be a hard get for Labour, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Lib Dem vote becomes vastly inflated in such areas. Besides, the more pro-Brexit outer suburbs which liked BoJo in his Mayoral runs (for example, Jon Cruddas's Dagenham seat) could offset probable losses like Mark Field in the Cities of London and Westminster.

I'm pretty bearish about Lab/LD chances in the SE, tbh. I doubt it would end up being a net loss for them, but based on numbers and anecdotal observation (I live in Esher & Walton), the Tories have a pretty formidable wall of incumbents.

That said, I think the wall is even more formidable for Labour in the north. Not only do they have the same or larger margins in the seats they hold, they've already lost most of the most susceptible seats. Add to that the deep resentment in the area toward the Tories and I think you've got a recipe for Tory fools gold.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

do you feel the tories are going to lose some of their Surrey strongholds then?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course mass auto-deselection (even expulsion has been threatened?) could easily trigger an actual Split under current conditions and then who even knows anything, anywhere.

[MillennialModerate]

Have to say Boris has played this great.

He’s talking with all the bluster of a confident leader that’s gung ho on a No Deal if need be, thus weakening the Brexit Party DRAMATICALLY. Now he seems primed to call an election with a weakened Labour, a handcuffed Brexit party: He’s going to thread the needle to a majority

[cp]

do you feel the tories are going to lose some of their Surrey strongholds then?

As things stand today I wouldn't bet on it, but the material is there for an upset. It would require a formidable challenge by the Brexit Party AND mass tactical voting by Lab/LD/Green voters AND a historic low turnout among traditional Tory voters.

Have to say Boris has played this great.

He’s talking with all the bluster of a confident leader that’s gung ho on a No Deal if need be, thus weakening the Brexit Party DRAMATICALLY. Now he seems primed to call an election with a weakened Labour, a handcuffed Brexit party: He’s going to thread the needle to a majority

Must ... not ... feed ... trolls ...

[DaWN]

The Tories are not going to lose any of the Surrey strongholds. The majorities are too large and the voting patterns too baked in, not to mention the Lib Dems (who will be the benefactors of a hypothetical collapse, Labour would be even less likely to win them) have far better targets, both Tory and Labour, that they're not going to bother wasting time in unwinnable seats. Probably. Incompetence can't be ruled out, this is Britain after all

[Peanut]

I haven't really been following the latest trends closely, not since the locals to be quite honest, so how has Boris changed the equation? I imagine the election would be a mess, but to whom would it be less of a disaster?

[cp]

Johnson got a bump in the polls, almost exclusively from siphoning off about 1/3 of the Brexit Party's support (around 5-7 points). That's put the Tories back into the low 30s, about 10 points ahead of Labour who are still splitting the bulk of the anti-Tory/Brexit vote with the Lib Dems (who are at around 18-22%).

Qualitatively, Johnson's tenure has been a psycho/melo-drama with feverish stories about his principal aide Dominic Cummings pulling all the strings. Johnson has averaged about one new spending announcement per week, with figures and policies that sound more New Labour than anything else.

An election now is a complete crap shoot. Depending on when it happens, vis a vis the UK leaving the EU, it could result in anything from a Tory majority to a Labour majority to anything in between.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1168546988205518850

[CumbrianLefty]

I will say, again, that the recent tactics of Cummings Johnson have significantly united an opposition that had - as others said - become badly fractured since the 2017 GE.

(I mean "opposition" as in anti-Toryism more generally rather than the Labour party - though it could well be true there also, Watson and others have been notably low key in recent days)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There actually hasn't been that much polling recently and much of it has been by one firm, one that recently has shown small but major differences to most of the others. So the picture even as it is now is not clear, let alone what might happen during a campaign.

Of course it is also possible that the cranking up of GE speculation today is mostly intended as putting on thumbscrews for the vote tomorrow.

[CumbrianLefty]

Very striking poll for NI just released, btw. Big gains for the Alliance Party who are now a strong third place, both of the "big two" clearly down on 2017, the old "big two" (UUP/SDLP) nowhere.

[DaWN]

Very striking poll for NI just released, btw. Big gains for the Alliance Party who are now a strong third place, both the "big two" down, the old "big two" (UUP/SDLP) nowhere.

FPTP would almost certainly limit Alliance gains but if they do get a seat or two it could potentially throw a spanner in the works if the Tories end up with a result similar to 2017

[Lumine]

Boris Johnson is about to make a statement from Downing Street.

There's talk that he's going to announce he'll try to call an election for October 14th if MP's vote for an extension tomorrow (Hilary Benn has also presented the bill rebels intend to use to block a No-Deal Brexit).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Can't think of any likely Alliance gains aside from Belfast East and South unless they start actually showing leads, but that's good nonetheless (even if polling in that region has been historically garbage).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What in God's name was that?

[DaWN]

Remember that episode of The Thick of It where Hugh's idea to get through a press conference he hasn't got anything to say at is to highlight how he hasn't got anything to say?

[Lumine]

That was downright bizarre.

I get why most of the Cabinet will continue to stand besides him, but the more this insanity goes on the more frustrated I am at the sheer cowardice of people like Hancock or Rudd.

[Dereich]

It sounded like the intended audience of that speech was a dozen Conservative MPs. Why bother with a press conference?

[Devout Centrist]

It sounded like the intended audience of that speech was a dozen Conservative MPs. Why bother with a press conference?

Apparently they were all in the backyard?

https://twitter.com/tictoc/status/1168576785405157376

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Sensing a definite shift in the mood of the commentariat from "Cummings is a genius" to "Have they overplayed their hand?"

[cp]

It sounded like the intended audience of that speech was a dozen Conservative MPs. Why bother with a press conference?

The most notable sound from that speech was the protesters chanting "stop the coup" so loudly they nearly drowned Johnson out!

Also, it must be remembered that thanks to the FTPA* it is no longer in the government's gift to decide when to dissolve parliament and hold an election. Unless Johnson orders one of his MPs to propose a motion of no confidence against his own government and then orders all his MPs to vote *against* it, he cannot just "call" an election.

*(The Fixed Term Parliaments Act stipulates only two scenarios in which an election may be called prior to its statutory date: a motion of *very specific* wording indicating no-confidence in the government being passed and then not being repealed within a period of 14 days, OR a 2/3 vote of the entire parliament (434 votes; quorum does not factor in) calling for an early election.)

For the record, it seems unlikely Johnson will get the votes for an early election, as many Labour MPs will abstain unless they feel it is to their party's advantage to bring down the government.

[Silent Hunter]

After Corbyn's ad infinitum calls for a General Election, why would he block one now? He'd look 'frit' and a hafl.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

After Corbyn's ad infinitum calls for a General Election, why would he block one now? He'd look 'frit' and a hafl.

It isn't particularly hard to construct an Augustinian argument around the issue - a General Election soon but not just yet - given the circumstances and the need to prevent No Deal etc. I suspect the only people who would find that seriously objectionable would be political journalists.

I've no idea if that's the line they'll take or even if that's the decision they'll make, but it's there as an option.

Of course we don't even know for certain if the government will be defeated in the House on these issues: promised Tory rebellions under May had a habit of vanish under the slightest pressure. Could be this time is different, but we shall see.

[Gass3268]

BuzzFeed has a list of rebel Tory MPs that will vote against the Government:

Guto Bebb
Alistair Burt
David Gauke
Justine Greening
Dominic Grieve
Richard Harrington
Oliver Letwin
Caroline Nokes
Antoinette Sandbach
Rory Stewart

Undecided:

David Lidington
Ed Vaizey
Steve Brine

Voting with the government:

Alan Duncan
Sarah Newton
Caroline Spelman

Source