UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[Angel of Death]

It is possible that Boris Johnson knows fully well that no-deal would be a disaster, including and especially for anyone presiding over it, and is actually trying to pull another "Producers" and setting himself up to "be thwarted by Remainers" and become enough of a martyr for Brexit in the next election to weather a wrathful Nigel Farage. After all, "having one's cake and eat it" is a favorite expression of his.

[vileplume]

Maybe if Labour and even Lib Dems didn’t reject every deal May offered , this day may not have come . The fact is Corbyn wants No Deal Brexit which is why he torpedoed every Deal Brexit , as once the deadline passes no deal Brexit will happen.


Yes Boris shouldn’t have done this but this day wouldn’t have come if the parliament accepted Theresa May’s deal

That's nonsense. If Corbyn can't get remain, then he wants Norway Plus, which is about the opposite of no deal Brexit.

Except Corbyn would probably quite like a No Deal Brexit provided the Tories get all of the blame for it. Corbyn does not like the EU out of principle (his half-hearted act fools exactly no one) and a No Deal exit would cause the kind of chaos that would be quite likely to propel him into Downing Street to implement his socialist agenda, with the added bonus that he wouldn't have any of those pesky EU rules getting in the way.

[Silent Hunter]

It is possible that Boris Johnson knows fully well that no-deal would be a disaster, including and especially for anyone presiding over it, and is actually trying to pull another "Producers" and setting himself up to "be thwarted by Remainers" and become enough of a martyr for Brexit in the next election to weather a wrathful Nigel Farage. After all, "having one's cake and eat it" is a favorite expression of his.

There's a hardcore No Deal minority out there that Johnson won't be able to woo back, especially if Brexit is delayed any more.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Ruth Davidson has resigned as Scottish Tory leader.

Also, Lord Young of Cookham i.e. George Young, former Cabinet minister, has resigned as a junior whip over this.

... Honestly didn't know that a thatcher cabinet minister still had a government position. Don't you love the Lords?

Thatcher's Scotland and Defence Secretary was George Younger. George Young was Major's last Transport Secretary. Still been in Parliament in some capacity since 1974, though.

actually I was thinking of David Lord Young, the Industry Secretary who replaced Tebbitt, but thanks. Weird how common the name is for Tories.

The party of Young people.

[CumbrianLefty]

Maybe if Labour and even Lib Dems didn’t reject every deal May offered , this day may not have come . The fact is Corbyn wants No Deal Brexit which is why he torpedoed every Deal Brexit , as once the deadline passes no deal Brexit will happen.


Yes Boris shouldn’t have done this but this day wouldn’t have come if the parliament accepted Theresa May’s deal

That's nonsense. If Corbyn can't get remain, then he wants Norway Plus, which is about the opposite of no deal Brexit.

Except Corbyn would probably quite like a No Deal Brexit provided the Tories get all of the blame for it. Corbyn does not like the EU out of principle (his half-hearted act fools exactly no one) and a No Deal exit would cause the kind of chaos that would be quite likely to propel him into Downing Street to implement his socialist agenda, with the added bonus that he wouldn't have any of those pesky EU rules getting in the way.

Corbyn has consistently opposed a no deal Brexit basically from day one. Its actually been one of the few constant Labour positions since June 2016 FFS.

But the conspiracy theorists know better about his "real" intentions, of course.......

Everybody knows that he is a long term Eurosceptic - but perhaps in his case he is a "sceptic" in the genuine (and indeed original) sense of the word. Rather than a Europhobe little Englander, cynical disaster capitalist or simply (as with our new PM) an amoral opportunist?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've never seen any evidence that he thinks in those grandiose calculating terms, even if some of the people working for him certainly do. His politics are basically sentimental, not ideological.

[Badger]

The EU should refuse to negotiate until Parliament is reopened.

Then the UK will just pull out.

The will of the people was expressed in the referendum, like it or not. 

(I am sure that Trump is asking if he can prorogue Congress.)

The will of the people was expressed once multiple Years Ago by a razor-thin margin. If we are truly concerned about the will of the people, hold another referendum, as polling indicates brexit would probably be repealed.

It always astounds me that the people who just want brexit for its own sake go on about the will of the people and democracy, and yet at the same time our Foursquare of against allowing the people to express what appears to be a majority in favor of second thoughts and regrets.

Oh no, they cry. We can't go back and forth and have a referendum on leaving every couple years. Who will think of the stability? Yeah, sure. Where's your Devotion to democracy in the will of the people now? With that kind of the will of the people binding Nation forevermore, we would still have prohibition in effect.

Just drop it pretense of caring about democracy. Supporters want brexit for brexit sake, and will fight to keep it anyway possible no matter how much of a klusterfuk it is turning into

[Blair]

To echo Badgers point it’s also a redundant argument when you consider that there is no detailed method of leaving with a democratic mandate. The best we have is the vague 2017 manifesto commitments which considering the 2017 result don’t mean much.

Do we leave with a Norway Style Deal, do we leave with Mays Deal, do we leave with no-Deal, or do we leave with Corbyn weird deal? Every option will still be seen as unfavourable by one segment of the ‘Leave Coalition’.

The problem with Brexit has always been the vast difference is what it’s various supporters think it means.

[politicallefty]

I'd have to ask since when is one election result totally binding on every subsequent decision? I think what's against democracy is allowing vote which was taken over 3 years ago to rule everything for the future. If anything, the nearly neverending debate over the past couple years is all the more reason for another referendum. The people should have a chance to weigh in once again, something they haven't been able to do since the early days of the debate when May failed to get increase her majority in Parliament.

I suppose for the right and those that want hard Brexit, Boris Johnson should just be a functional dictator for the remainder of this parliamentary term until 2022.

[Omega21]

Nigel Farage will withdraw candidates if Boris Johnson goes for ‘no deal’

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ql4_Ug8NSoU

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The smartest thing for Boris to do would be to call an election with No Deal as the official manifesto, allow BP to die, deselect anybody who can't accept that it's part of the manifesto, roll over the divided Remainers and pretend to the tired public that no deal would represent an end to this stupid phase.

[CumbrianLefty]

That is the dream scenario for him, yes.

But the hostages to fortune in it are considerable - not least the presumption that remainers will stay "divided". One of the encouraging things about yesterday's nationwide action is that it showed the potential for unity amongst his opponents. To put it another way, after this week's events only a tiny hardcore alt-centrist #FBPE minority still see Corbyn as a bigger enemy than Johnson now.

Did brilliant four dimensional chess galaxy brain Cummings see this happening, I wonder?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

FTPA might also complicate things: under the circumstances it would be quite politically legitimate for Labour and the other opposition parties to argue 'yes to an election soon, but not right now'.

[CumbrianLefty]

Starmer did indeed seem to be hinting as much this morning - stop no deal (on Oct 31 at least) and then push for a GE with prime minister Cummings Johnson suitably humbled.

[DaWN]

To put it another way, after this week's events only a tiny hardcore alt-centrist #FBPE minority still see Corbyn as a bigger enemy than Johnson now.

Nobody ever saw him as a bigger enemy. Just an enemy. And that has absolutely not changed.

[DaWN]

To put it another way, after this week's events only a tiny hardcore alt-centrist #FBPE minority still see Corbyn as a bigger enemy than Johnson now.

Nobody ever saw him as a bigger enemy. Just an enemy. And that has absolutely not changed.

Wow, a 2015 meme. That's my entire argument defeated, better just become a Corbynite now.

[parochial boy]

I mean great, if you want to keep on seeing Corbyn as an enemy, you can go on sitting on the moral high ground while Britain crashes out of the EU and tens of millions of people suffer the consequences.

Just because you want to try and pretend that high taxes and nationalisation are somehow just as evil as what the Conservative party are currently doing.

[Mr. Illini]

Since the prospect of a No Deal Brexit has become increasingly likely, do we think that Pelosi will actually block a trade deal with the UK as she has promised to do if there is no Irish backstop?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why wouldn't she? Besides there would be enourmous opposition here to a 'free' trade arrangement with the United States: I'm not even sure if it would be politically tenable.

[CumbrianLefty]

To put it another way, after this week's events only a tiny hardcore alt-centrist #FBPE minority still see Corbyn as a bigger enemy than Johnson now.

Nobody ever saw him as a bigger enemy. Just an enemy. And that has absolutely not changed.

Sorry, this is just not true.

Several self-declared centrists - including some very prominent ones - were quite explicit that they would rather have the Tories continue in office than a Corbyn-led Labour take power.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Boris is basically reprising May's strategy of massive Brexit polarisation as the path to a majority. Maybe it will work a second time, but...

[Blair]

I really think the timescale of a US-UK Trade Deal is being really exaggerated (both by the weird Atlantist eurosceptics, the Trump administration and the FBPE crowd)

Seeing as the EU-US TTIP took what 5+ years and then died, and the length and complexities of the EU-Canada deal, I can't see one being done and signed off when either Trump or Pelosi are in power.

[Silent Hunter]

The same for an UK-EU trade deal.

[cp]

The smartest thing for Boris to do would be to call an election with No Deal as the official manifesto, allow BP to die, deselect anybody who can't accept that it's part of the manifesto, roll over the divided Remainers and pretend to the tired public that no deal would represent an end to this stupid phase.

Is it that smart, though? Standing on a manifesto to pursue a hard Brexit with a deal was what the Tories did in 2017; UKIP collapsed and they *still* didn't win. A manifesto with an explicit no-deal pledge (rather than as a last resort if a deal is impossible), as Farage has insisted would be required,  seems much more likely to be a net vote loser for the Tories. Sure, they might pick up a lot of Brexit Party support in the midlands and the north, but most of those seats have such huge Labour margins it wouldn't win the Tories many seats. Meanwhile, a no deal platform could see the Tories lose everything they have in Scotland, London, and any university/market towns in the SE.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The smartest thing for Boris to do would be to call an election with No Deal as the official manifesto, allow BP to die, deselect anybody who can't accept that it's part of the manifesto, roll over the divided Remainers and pretend to the tired public that no deal would represent an end to this stupid phase.

Is it that smart, though? Standing on a manifesto to pursue a hard Brexit with a deal was what the Tories did in 2017; UKIP collapsed and they *still* didn't win. A manifesto with an explicit no-deal pledge (rather than as a last resort if a deal is impossible), as Farage has insisted would be required,  seems much more likely to be a net vote loser for the Tories. Sure, they might pick up a lot of Brexit Party support in the midlands and the north, but most of those seats have such huge Labour margins it wouldn't win the Tories many seats. Meanwhile, a no deal platform could see the Tories lose everything they have in Scotland, London, and any university/market towns in the SE.

Maybe I'm more pessimestic than you, because I think there are a fair decent number of seats in areas like South Yorkshire and Tees Valley that could fall in such an election - at least more than the total Tory seats in England and Wales that would probably fall in the event of a Hard Brexit manifesto (especially if Lib Dems are hiving off the Hard Remainers from Labour's total numbers in the aforementioned market towns etc).

Even London etc is tricky. We already saw the cocky predictions that Labour made for the locals, where they confidently stated the pro-Labour trend in London was inevitable. The three Barnet marginals, for example, are going to be a hard get for Labour, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Lib Dem vote becomes vastly inflated in such areas. Besides, the more pro-Brexit outer suburbs which liked BoJo in his Mayoral runs (for example, Jon Cruddas's Dagenham seat) could offset probable losses like Mark Field in the Cities of London and Westminster.