The Hayride/Multi-Quest: Edwards 44, Abraham 35, Rispone 6, Landrieu 4

[Zaybay]

https://thehayride.com/2019/07/poll-report-the-hayride-multiquest-july-gubernatorial-survey/

General Election:

Edwards-44%
Abraham-35%
Rispone-6%
Landrieu-4%
Undecided-10%

Run-off:

Edwards-49%
Abraham-39%
Undecided-12%

[Politician]

But muh polorization

[UncleSam]

What were the party IDs in 2016? Is 46% Dem 38% R a typical breakdown?

Note that Edwards has near-universal name rec while Abraham has 51% name rec. also note that against Rispone Rispone’s Number goes down while Edwards’ number stays exactly the same.

I’d be surprised if Abraham doesn’t make this a close race. JBE has a 57% approval rating and is doing everything he needs to to have a shot at winning, however. However, polarization is starting to show in this race - JBE isn’t picking up much of the R vote at all.

This race continuing to tighten is what this poll indicates to me, but JBE has an advantage for now.

[MT Treasurer]

JBE isn’t picking up much of the R vote at all.

He’s leading by 10 points in a Trump +20 state and already close to 50%, he’s definitely picking up some of the R vote lol.

[UncleSam]

JBE isn’t picking up much of the R vote at all.

He’s leading by 10 points in a Trump +20 state and already close to 50%, he’s definitely picking up some of the R vote lol.

This is a sample that Trump is hitting 50% in (vs 39% for the Dem). It is stated in the poll that JBE picks up virtually 100% of this Dem support and then a decent chunk of undecided / independent voters. I’m other words, in this sample, it is unlikely there are more than 3-4% of all voters who are Trump - JBE. I’d say that qualifies as not picking up much of the R vote - or certainly much less than one would expect considering his approval rating is 57%.

[Pollster]

Seriously, Edwards could very well win this on the first round.

[OSR stands with Israel]

But muh polorization

Yeah, if "polarization" didn’t sink Joe Manchin and Larry Hogan, there’s no reason to believe it will sink JBE. At least Lean D.

WV is still more dem than LA on the state level.

[Pericles]

Lean D imo, polarization is the general rule but there can be exceptions to it and this seems like a plausible exception.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

But muh polorization

I’d argue that this is actually evidence of polarization despite Edwards’ solid leads. A 2000’s era Governor with approvals as high as Edwards’ would be much farther ahead.

[MT Treasurer]

WV is still more dem than LA on the state level.

It was more Dem than LA on the state level in 2015 too, and JBE still won in a landslide. Not to mention that Manchin won a federal race in a Trump +42 state despite "polarization."

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

WV is still more dem than LA on the state level.

It was more Dem than LA on the state level in 2015 too, and JBE still won in a landslide. Not to mention that Manchin won a federal race in a Trump +42 state despite "polarization."

His margin went down by 23% despite it being a more favorable year for Democrats compared to 2012 though. Polarization isn’t a completely meaningless buzzword. There’s a reason why both parties’ Senate playing field has become extremely constricted in the last decade

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think Abraham wins 52-48 in the runoff when it is all said and done, but Edwards still has a decent shot, and if he edges out, watch some of the McGrath for senate people want to seriously contest Cassidy in 2020 lol.

[MT Treasurer]

WV is still more dem than LA on the state level.

It was more Dem than LA on the state level in 2015 too, and JBE still won in a landslide. Not to mention that Manchin won a federal race in a Trump +42 state despite "polarization."

His margin went down by 23% despite it being a more favorable year for Democrats compared to 2012 though. Polarization isn’t a completely meaningless buzzword. There’s a reason why both parties’ Senate playing field has become extremely constricted in the last decade

His margin went down, but it doesn’t change the fact that he managed to win in a Trump +42 state even with Trump campaigning against him. I don’t think any Republican candidate would be able to win in a Clinton +42 state/district nowadays.

If polarization isn’t high enough to sink someone like Manchin or Hogan, there’s zero reason to believe it will sink JBE. When JBE wins reelection, people will say that it proves LA is "polarized" because he "only" won by 7-10 instead of 12 points like in 2015 or whatever.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Still Lean D

[Frenchrepublican]

What were the party IDs in 2016? Is 46% Dem 38% R a typical breakdown?

Note that Edwards has near-universal name rec while Abraham has 51% name rec. also note that against Rispone Rispone’s Number goes down while Edwards’ number stays exactly the same.

I’d be surprised if Abraham doesn’t make this a close race. JBE has a 57% approval rating and is doing everything he needs to to have a shot at winning, however. However, polarization is starting to show in this race - JBE isn’t picking up much of the R vote at all.

This race continuing to tighten is what this poll indicates to me, but JBE has an advantage for now.

They’re talking about voter registration, and democrats have still a significant voter registration advantage 

The problem for JBE is that only 7% of democrats are undecided while 13% of republicans are undecided. JBE is also winning 25% of republicans, it’s possible that after a brutal campaign this number will be lower

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

What were the party IDs in 2016? Is 46% Dem 38% R a typical breakdown?

Note that Edwards has near-universal name rec while Abraham has 51% name rec. also note that against Rispone Rispone’s Number goes down while Edwards’ number stays exactly the same.

I’d be surprised if Abraham doesn’t make this a close race. JBE has a 57% approval rating and is doing everything he needs to to have a shot at winning, however. However, polarization is starting to show in this race - JBE isn’t picking up much of the R vote at all.

This race continuing to tighten is what this poll indicates to me, but JBE has an advantage for now.

They’re talking about voter registration, and democrats have still a significant voter registration advantage 

The problem for JBE is that only 7% of democrats are undecided while 13% of republicans are undecided. JBE is also winning 25% of republicans, it’s possible that after a brutal campaign this number will be lower

Tbf, (because I am playing devil's advocate here as I still think Abraham wins at the end of the day), he is running out of time to do this, and not doing great with money, this is not an A class campaign being run here. In all honestly, this would be hard for me to watch if I was a Louisiana Republican, knowing full well Abraham is a mediocre candidate running a mediocre campaign that is just in the game because of how red the state is, and Kennedy or Landry would have mopped the floor with Edwards.

[We Live in Black and White]

What were the party IDs in 2016? Is 46% Dem 38% R a typical breakdown?

Note that Edwards has near-universal name rec while Abraham has 51% name rec. also note that against Rispone Rispone’s Number goes down while Edwards’ number stays exactly the same.

I’d be surprised if Abraham doesn’t make this a close race. JBE has a 57% approval rating and is doing everything he needs to to have a shot at winning, however. However, polarization is starting to show in this race - JBE isn’t picking up much of the R vote at all.

This race continuing to tighten is what this poll indicates to me, but JBE has an advantage for now.

They’re talking about voter registration, and democrats have still a significant voter registration advantage 

The problem for JBE is that only 7% of democrats are undecided while 13% of republicans are undecided. JBE is also winning 25% of republicans, it’s possible that after a brutal campaign this number will be lower

Tbf, (because I am playing devil's advocate here as I still think Abraham wins at the end of the day), he is running out of time to do this, and not doing great with money, this is not an A class campaign being run here. In all honestly, this would be hard for me to watch if I was a Louisiana Republican, knowing full well Abraham is a mediocre candidate running a mediocre campaign that is just in the game because of how red the state is, and Kennedy or Landry would have mopped the floor with Edwards.

I don't say this often of you, Bagel, but bingo and bingo. The LAGOP's best options punted and now they're stuck with a C-tier doinker of a congressman as their nominee with less than three months left to put Edwards away. Add to that the midterm environment, the likelihood of boosted turnout in New Orleans, and Rispone dragging Abraham's numbers down, and there's a legitimate chance that Edwards ends this in the first round.

[Skill and Chance]

What were the party IDs in 2016? Is 46% Dem 38% R a typical breakdown?

Note that Edwards has near-universal name rec while Abraham has 51% name rec. also note that against Rispone Rispone’s Number goes down while Edwards’ number stays exactly the same.

I’d be surprised if Abraham doesn’t make this a close race. JBE has a 57% approval rating and is doing everything he needs to to have a shot at winning, however. However, polarization is starting to show in this race - JBE isn’t picking up much of the R vote at all.

This race continuing to tighten is what this poll indicates to me, but JBE has an advantage for now.

They’re talking about voter registration, and democrats have still a significant voter registration advantage 

The problem for JBE is that only 7% of democrats are undecided while 13% of republicans are undecided. JBE is also winning 25% of republicans, it’s possible that after a brutal campaign this number will be lower

Starting at 49% means he can win the runoff even if the undecideds break pretty strongly against him.  Lean D.

[brucejoel99]

What were the party IDs in 2016? Is 46% Dem 38% R a typical breakdown?

Note that Edwards has near-universal name rec while Abraham has 51% name rec. also note that against Rispone Rispone’s Number goes down while Edwards’ number stays exactly the same.

I’d be surprised if Abraham doesn’t make this a close race. JBE has a 57% approval rating and is doing everything he needs to to have a shot at winning, however. However, polarization is starting to show in this race - JBE isn’t picking up much of the R vote at all.

This race continuing to tighten is what this poll indicates to me, but JBE has an advantage for now.

They’re talking about voter registration, and democrats have still a significant voter registration advantage 

The problem for JBE is that only 7% of democrats are undecided while 13% of republicans are undecided. JBE is also winning 25% of republicans, it’s possible that after a brutal campaign this number will be lower

Starting at 49% means he can win the runoff even if the undecideds break pretty strongly against him.  Lean D.

This.

[DINGO Joe]

If fake Landrieu only gets 1%, Edwards could win it in the primary.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Good poll for JBE, but no matter who wins the governor's mansion, the women of Louisiana will lose.

[Bidenworth2020]

Good poll for JBE, but no matter who wins the governor's mansion, the women of Louisiana will lose.

Women in LA are just as, if not more pro life than men.

[brucejoel99]

Good poll for JBE, but no matter who wins the governor's mansion, the women of Louisiana will lose.

Women in LA are just as, if not more pro life than men.

That doesn't change the fact that they still shouldn't have their right to choose infringed upon.