How would you react to this result?
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Author Topic: How would you react to this result?  (Read 1202 times)
TDAS04
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« on: July 22, 2019, 07:21:21 PM »


Harris/Walz: 335
Trump/Pence: 203

Harris wins PV by 5.0%

States decided by under 10%:
Colorado: Harris +9
Virginia: Harris +8
Nevada: Harris +7
Minnesota: Harris +6
New Hampshire: Harris +4
Maine: Harris +4
Pennsylvania: Harris +3
NE-2: Harris +3
Arizona: Harris +2
Michigan: Harris +1
Wisconsin: Harris +1
Florida: Harris +0.4
Georgia: Harris +0.2
North Carolina: Trump +1
Texas: Trump +3
Alaska: Trump +6
Iowa: Trump +7
Ohio: Trump +9
ME-2: Trump +9
Kansas: Trump +9

In Senate, GOP gains AL and Dems gain CO & AZ.  Chamber now 52-48 GOP

Democrats maintain majority in House, 228-207.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2019, 07:24:43 PM »
We've had a lot of these threads lately, huh?

Georgia will not flip before North Carolina. Take that way and I could believe it though.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: July 23, 2019, 07:14:31 AM »
Unrealistic. Trump won't do that well in Ohio while losing the rust belt.
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redeagleofficial
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« Reply #3 on: July 23, 2019, 10:42:57 AM »
Impossible if Kamala is the nominee
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #4 on: July 23, 2019, 11:49:03 AM »
I’d be shocked if Harris did worse in VA than CO. And yeah, Trump isn’t winning OH by 9 if he’s losing WI/MI/PA.
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SN2903
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« Reply #5 on: July 23, 2019, 12:09:14 PM »
Quit dreaming. Harris is not winning Michigan, Penn or Wisconsin. She is a horrible fit for those 3 states . Also if Trump wins Ohio by 9 he's winning Florida by 3 to 5 and Penn and Wisconsin by 2 to 4
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #6 on: July 23, 2019, 02:08:21 PM »
Quote from: SN2903 on July 23, 2019, 12:09:14 PM
Quit dreaming. Harris is not winning Michigan, Penn or Wisconsin. She is a horrible fit for those 3 states . Also if Trump wins Ohio by 9 he's winning Florida by 3 to 5 and Penn and Wisconsin by 2 to 4

She could easily win WI, PA, and MI by boosting urban turnout and suburban democratic support.
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SN2903
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« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2019, 07:18:49 PM »
Quote from: Pittsburgh For Kamala on July 23, 2019, 02:08:21 PM
Quote from: SN2903 on July 23, 2019, 12:09:14 PM
Quit dreaming. Harris is not winning Michigan, Penn or Wisconsin. She is a horrible fit for those 3 states . Also if Trump wins Ohio by 9 he's winning Florida by 3 to 5 and Penn and Wisconsin by 2 to 4

She could easily win WI, PA, and MI by boosting urban turnout and suburban democratic support.
No she can't because she will do worse with WWC in the rest of each state than Hillary did
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2019, 08:18:29 PM »
Quote from: SN2903 on July 23, 2019, 07:18:49 PM
Quote from: Pittsburgh For Kamala on July 23, 2019, 02:08:21 PM
Quote from: SN2903 on July 23, 2019, 12:09:14 PM
Quit dreaming. Harris is not winning Michigan, Penn or Wisconsin. She is a horrible fit for those 3 states . Also if Trump wins Ohio by 9 he's winning Florida by 3 to 5 and Penn and Wisconsin by 2 to 4

She could easily win WI, PA, and MI by boosting urban turnout and suburban democratic support.
No she can't because she will do worse with WWC in the rest of each state than Hillary did
Agree.Harris map would be 2016+NC+GA+AZ
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TDAS04
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« Reply #9 on: August 23, 2021, 09:07:55 PM »
I hardly ever necropost, but these predictions from 2019 weren’t that bad.  Of course, Harris wasn’t the presidential nominee, but I got all the states right except Florida.

Quote from: MT Treasurer on July 23, 2019, 11:49:03 AM
I’d be shocked if Harris did worse in VA than CO. And yeah, Trump isn’t winning OH by 9 if he’s losing WI/MI/PA.

Colorado voted to the left of Virginia.  While Trump didn’t carry Ohio by 9%, he did carry it by 8 while losing WI/MI/PA.
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #10 on: September 01, 2021, 08:50:04 AM »
Wow, this was only one state off (FL). The replies to this thread aged like milk.
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Pericles
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« Reply #11 on: September 01, 2021, 04:30:57 PM »
Lol the Georgia margin was called exactly.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #12 on: September 01, 2021, 05:50:29 PM »
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on July 22, 2019, 07:24:43 PM
We've had a lot of these threads lately, huh?

Georgia will not flip before North Carolina. Take that way and I could believe it though.

I'm so embarrassed...
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #13 on: September 01, 2021, 08:10:39 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on July 23, 2019, 11:49:03 AM
I’d be shocked if Harris did worse in VA than CO. And yeah, Trump isn’t winning OH by 9 if he’s losing WI/MI/PA.

I mean technically Harris was the other side of the slot...but...oops.
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Utah Neolib
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« Reply #14 on: September 01, 2021, 08:27:57 PM »
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on July 22, 2019, 07:24:43 PM
We've had a lot of these threads lately, huh?

Georgia will not flip before North Carolina. Take that way and I could believe it though.
That aged poorly
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #15 on: September 01, 2021, 09:00:52 PM »
Holy crap, only FL was off (and it's FL)

AND even the two congressional districts were right. 

And he got GA voting to the left of NC (which I thought too but was unconventional)

AND CO voting to the left of VA (which shocked me a bit).

Bravo.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #16 on: September 01, 2021, 09:02:17 PM »
Quote from: SN2903 on July 23, 2019, 12:09:14 PM
Quit dreaming. Harris is not winning Michigan, Penn or Wisconsin. She is a horrible fit for those 3 states . Also if Trump wins Ohio by 9 he's winning Florida by 3 to 5 and Penn and Wisconsin by 2 to 4

TDAS will take his apology now.
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Pericles
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« Reply #17 on: September 01, 2021, 09:08:40 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on September 01, 2021, 09:00:52 PM
Holy crap, only FL was off (and it's FL)

AND even the two congressional districts were right. 

And he got GA voting to the left of NC (which I thought too but was unconventional)

AND CO voting to the left of VA (which shocked me a bit).

Bravo.

That wasn't a hard one, NE-02 was just Trump +2% in 2016 while ME-02 was Trump +10%, while NE-02 had a strong Dem trend and ME-02 had a very strong Republican trend. People just don't pay close attention to the districts so they assumed the Nebraska district had to be more Republican than the Maine one.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #18 on: September 01, 2021, 09:13:08 PM »
Quote from: Pericles on September 01, 2021, 09:08:40 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on September 01, 2021, 09:00:52 PM
Holy crap, only FL was off (and it's FL)

AND even the two congressional districts were right. 

And he got GA voting to the left of NC (which I thought too but was unconventional)

AND CO voting to the left of VA (which shocked me a bit).

Bravo.

That wasn't a hard one, NE-02 was just Trump +2% in 2016 while ME-02 was Trump +10%, while NE-02 had a strong Dem trend and ME-02 had a very strong Republican trend. People just don't pay close attention to the districts so they assumed the Nebraska district had to be more Republican than the Maine one.

Yes the margins were known to be close but honestly it is hard to predict single congressional districts as they are more variable.  I probably shouldn't have emphasized that specifically though.  The point was more that he got pretty much EVERYTHING right and even some of the margins or relative margins.  I just noticed those at the end because they are tiny and I wanted to see if he also correctly predicted the congressional districts.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #19 on: September 02, 2021, 05:50:59 PM »
Quote from: Utah Neolib on September 01, 2021, 08:27:57 PM
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on July 22, 2019, 07:24:43 PM
We've had a lot of these threads lately, huh?

Georgia will not flip before North Carolina. Take that way and I could believe it though.
That aged poorly

Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on September 01, 2021, 05:50:29 PM
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on July 22, 2019, 07:24:43 PM
We've had a lot of these threads lately, huh?

Georgia will not flip before North Carolina. Take that way and I could believe it though.

I'm so embarrassed...
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