NPR-PBS-Marist: Definitely vote against President Trump +14

[Gass3268]

Definitely vote for President Trump: 39%
Definitely vote against him: 53%
Unsure: 8%

Source

[ajc0918]

Yikes. Awful numbers for the President.

[President Johnson]

Awful indeed, though it's not saying too much. Anyway, Trump is more likely to lose election than not, but it's too early to write him off. He certainly can win again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Another bad poll for Trump

[Frenchrepublican]

Totally useless poll
Trump has a hard floor of 46% and a high ceiling of 48%, we don’t need this poll to know this fact

[junior chįmp]

Is this taken before or after the latest "The Squad" scandal breaking in the airwaves?

[Pollster]

A good chunk of the "unsure" respondents are probably the softer Trump supporters that push him up to his usual 41-43% in head to head GE polls, but it is somewhat noteworthy that while "definitely against" gets a majority here it is not statistically significant - factoring in the margin of error, the "definitely against" number could feasibly be roughly the % that HRC got.

[pbrower2a]

53% against him? The last Presidential nominee to get 53% was Barack Obama in 2008.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

53% against him? The last Presidential nominee to get 53% was Barack Obama in 2008.

We can have a Dem trifecta since 2009

[indietraveler]

Not good for Trump, but also not outstanding for the democrats considering at least a few points at minimum of the 53% are third party voters.

[Matty]

The OP ignores that in 2011 at this point

Definitely vote against Obama +13


In fact, obama was at 40% definitely re elect in 2011

Trump is at 39%

Tells you all you need to know about the unreliability of this type of polling question


Why did the OP leave it out of the thread when the poll itself included it for reference?

[Progressive Pessimist]

This looks reassuring but only if it lasts to election day and involves most of that 53% voting for the Democrats.

[South Dakota Democrat]

53% against him? The last Presidential nominee to get 53% was Barack Obama in 2008.

We can have a Dem trifecta since 2009

Think you misspoke.

[emailking]

The OP ignores that in 2011 at this point

Definitely vote against Obama +13


In fact, obama was at 40% definitely re elect in 2011

Trump is at 39%

Tells you all you need to know about the unreliability of this type of polling question


Why did the OP leave it out of the thread when the poll itself included it for reference?

The OP posted just the results without any commentary (and didn't post again). S/he did not say it means Trump would lose. There is nothing to clarify, and no historical context is necessary. It is pretty common on the polling boards for the first post to be just the results of the poll. Sometimes there is commentary in the OP in which case maybe a criticism like this would make sense.

[brucejoel99]

Get out & vote this time, people! America needs all the help we can get!!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Get out & vote this time, people! America needs all the help we can get!!

Seriously, no Trump opponent should leave anything up to chance.

[Suburbia]

Anything can happen, but Trump is not popular and he is very, very vulnerable.

But if Democrats overplay politically, WI, MI, PA could vote for him again.

[NOVA Green]

This is actually Trump's best poll from this organization since before January 2019.

Definitely against Trump was +27 in Jan '19 for example among RVs.

Still, it can't be good when you're are only sitting on 44% > 50% vote against in the South and 39-55 % vote against in the Midwest.

Interestingly Trump has now moved to a 52-44% approval for his handling of the economy for the first time above 50% on this question on this poll, which may well explain the reduction in "vote against" #s since JAN '19.

His foreign policy numbers are sitting at 42-53% disapprove which is a downgrade from the last time this question was asked in 4/17. Foreign Policy numbers seem to fluctuate quite a bit with this President....

Meanwhile opinions of the policies of the DEM party to move in Right Direction / wrong direction are 43/46 Wrong Direction.

70% Support Medicare for All that Want it
64% Pathway to Citizenship
63% Green New Deal
62% Wealth Tax

[UncleSam]

Btw this is a sample of adults. I have no doubt that Trump has a hard ceiling of 47% among all adults.

Would be much more interesting if it was RVs or LVs

[brucejoel99]

Btw this is a sample of adults.

Well duh, it's not like they were gonna poll kids

[UncleSam]

Btw this is a sample of adults.

Well duh, it's not like they were gonna poll kids

Damn you’re clever dude give us all a second to catch up

Adults =\= RVs or LVs. I think the rest of my post made that clear.

[NOVA Green]

Btw this is a sample of adults. I have no doubt that Trump has a hard ceiling of 47% among all adults.

Would be much more interesting if it was RVs or LVs

Fake News Uncle Sam (Sorry I couldn't resist with your screen name and Atlas persona--- wasn't trying to target you out for a hard time)....

Actually if you pull up the Source numbers you see numbers for National Adults and National RVs and there appears to be minor variation on these questions of ~ 1% in Trumps Favor ( +2% Swing) between the two numbers....

LVs we are not going to see until a bit closer to the election I would imagine, especially in a poll like this where they are covering a wide national pool of voters on a range of approve/disapprove type questions.....

To paraphrase the works of the great humorist Mark Twain from the Antebellum border state of Missouri once famously said something to the effect: "There are lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics".....

So take or leave the poll based upon your opinions, there are plenty more polls out there, just like arseholes, but in some ways one might argue this poll actually looks slightly better for Trump than it has since Jan '19 (Especially on approvals on the economy that are not only above water but now >50%).

Take off your Hat Uncle Sam chill awhile with a nice glass of homemade Iced Tea and digest the 39 pages of data from the original link provided by Gass.... (Glass is always half full and all that stuff...)     

[UncleSam]

Btw this is a sample of adults. I have no doubt that Trump has a hard ceiling of 47% among all adults.

Would be much more interesting if it was RVs or LVs

Fake News Uncle Sam (Sorry I couldn't resist with your screen name and Atlas persona--- wasn't trying to target you out for a hard time)....

Actually if you pull up the Source numbers you see numbers for National Adults and National RVs and there appears to be minor variation on these questions of ~ 1% in Trumps Favor ( +2% Swing) between the two numbers....

LVs we are not going to see until a bit closer to the election I would imagine, especially in a poll like this where they are covering a wide national pool of voters on a range of approve/disapprove type questions.....

To paraphrase the works of the great humorist Mark Twain from the Antebellum border state of Missouri once famously said something to the effect: "There are lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics".....

So take or leave the poll based upon your opinions, there are plenty more polls out there, just like arseholes, but in some ways one might argue this poll actually looks slightly better for Trump than it has since Jan '19 (Especially on approvals on the economy that are not only above water but now >50%).

Take off your Hat Uncle Sam chill awhile with a nice glass of homemade Iced Tea and digest the 39 pages of data from the original link provided by Gass.... (Glass is always half full and all that stuff...)     

That was a lot of words to say btw in the cross tabs there are other results for other samples that are more favorable to Trump, I wonder why Gass might not have put them in the OP?

[brucejoel99]

Btw this is a sample of adults.

Well duh, it's not like they were gonna poll kids

Damn you’re clever dude give us all a second to catch up

Adults =\= RVs or LVs. I think the rest of my post made that clear.

No, realllly? Jesus, dude, what part of "" do you not understand?

[NOVA Green]

Btw this is a sample of adults. I have no doubt that Trump has a hard ceiling of 47% among all adults.

Would be much more interesting if it was RVs or LVs

Fake News Uncle Sam (Sorry I couldn't resist with your screen name and Atlas persona--- wasn't trying to target you out for a hard time)....

Actually if you pull up the Source numbers you see numbers for National Adults and National RVs and there appears to be minor variation on these questions of ~ 1% in Trumps Favor ( +2% Swing) between the two numbers....

LVs we are not going to see until a bit closer to the election I would imagine, especially in a poll like this where they are covering a wide national pool of voters on a range of approve/disapprove type questions.....

To paraphrase the works of the great humorist Mark Twain from the Antebellum border state of Missouri once famously said something to the effect: "There are lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics".....

So take or leave the poll based upon your opinions, there are plenty more polls out there, just like arseholes, but in some ways one might argue this poll actually looks slightly better for Trump than it has since Jan '19 (Especially on approvals on the economy that are not only above water but now >50%).

Take off your Hat Uncle Sam chill awhile with a nice glass of homemade Iced Tea and digest the 39 pages of data from the original link provided by Gass.... (Glass is always half full and all that stuff...)     

That was a lot of words to say btw in the cross tabs there are other results for other samples that are more favorable to Trump, I wonder why Gass might not have put them in the OP?

Bcs Gass is an Atlas tradition, not only on polling related stuff, but when he posts on the polling thread this far out he focuses on the topline numbers (Data Mining polls for us to digest and consume)....

Interpretations of polls or dissecting cross-tabs is not something that Gass typically has done over the years (Although he's more than able to speak for himself and jump in...).

There are some posters that on polling threads typically will just post topline numbers and source and move on to other things.

Other posters tend to go more into the weeds of the polls. etc....

The reason why I don't always initially respond with my personal opinion of polls, is sometimes you need to look at the details, history of polling firm, history of polling firm in certain states, read the fine print, etc....

Remember the famous poll of the 1948 US Presidential Election???

Polling has come a long ways since then, but it's still a complex intersection of political-science and journalism....

Gass might have his personal political opinions, but he's not a hack and plus many of us have a work-life balance deal going on, which limits our time on Atlas and which projects we chose to focus on.