What if Tom Emmer won the MN 2010 Gov Race?

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

What would've happened with the GOP Legislature? Would Emmer be reelected? Would there be partisan gerrymandering? Who would succeed him as governor? What would happen to the other statewide offices in 2010 and beyond?

[brucejoel99]

What would've happened with the GOP Legislature?

No government shutdown. GOP policies successfully enacted.

Would Emmer be reelected?

Considering how narrowly he would've had to have won by in 2010 had he won, probably not. He'd be more likely to go down Tom Corbett-style than win a 2nd term.

Would there be partisan gerrymandering?

Yes.

Who would succeed him as governor?

If he were to lose his reelection bid in 2014, then probably Margaret Anderson Kelliher, considering she'd been the runner-up to Dayton in the 2010 primary & had previously built up a considerable amount of internal goodwill within the party (she'd won the state party's endorsement, even) as the State Speaker of the House.

What would happen to the other statewide offices in 2010 and beyond?

Depending on how narrow it would've been, maybe an Emmer victory would've been enough to pull Patricia Anderson over the line in her Auditor race against Rebecca Otto, but I still think that Otto would've pulled her win off, even if narrower. Otherwise, none of the other 2010 downballot races would be affected.

What's potentially interesting down the line, though, is what could happen if Emmer is reelected in 2014 & is thus the incumbent Governor when it comes time to appoint Al Franken's successor. Senator Tim Pawlenty, perhaps (well, at least until the special election, anyway)?

[Roll Roons]

Would Emmer be reelected?

Considering how narrowly he would've had to have won by in 2010 had he won, probably not. He'd be more likely to go down Tom Corbett-style than win a 2nd term.

Not necessarily. I can think of a bunch of examples (from both parties) where a governor won narrowly the first time, became incredibly popular and then won reelection in a landslide. Charlie Baker, Tom Kean, Jim Edgar, Larry Hogan, Brad Henry, Jim Douglas, Dave Freudenthal, Phil Bredesen, and Minnesota's own Arne Carlson. Emmer may well have ended up like them.

[brucejoel99]

Would Emmer be reelected?

Considering how narrowly he would've had to have won by in 2010 had he won, probably not. He'd be more likely to go down Tom Corbett-style than win a 2nd term.

Not necessarily. I can think of a bunch of examples (from both parties) where a governor won narrowly the first time, became incredibly popular and then won reelection in a landslide. Charlie Baker, Tom Kean, Jim Edgar, Larry Hogan, Brad Henry, Jim Douglas, Dave Freudenthal, Phil Bredesen, and Minnesota's own Arne Carlson. Emmer may well have ended up like them.

Yes, but I was only focusing on Republican governors elected in 2010 (i.e. Corbett &, had he been elected as in this scenario, Emmer), of which none of those were.