MI-13: Will Rashida Tlaib win re-election?

[Senator Incitatus]

I assumed it was CW that she was renting the seat from Jones. The whole "Squad" thing has always been a sort of desperate attempt to fend off what was once assumed inevitable. She's impressively changed the math somewhat, but she still won't be a lock for re-election.

[Pollster]

Tlaib is not likely to lose at the moment, though a relatively high-profile incumbent polling at 51% before an actual campaign even begins is not necessarily a position of strength.

[Coldstream]

Yeah, I am sensitive to anti-Semitism and people whose anti-Israel views shade into anti-Semitism, but it's a bit much to expect a Palestinian-American to not have some bad feelings toward Israel.

It is interesting that Justin Amash never faced similar accusations, even though he has what certain types would call an "anti-Israel" voting record (i.e. not voting to give Israel an unlimited supply of US taxpayer-funded weapons).

Perhaps it's because he was never particularly vocal about the issue and he votes against the government spending any money on anything in general.

If it weren’t for his heritage he’d be no different to Thomas Massie who just votes against spending money on anything. So that’s probably why people don’t notice.

[Coldstream]

Doesn’t seem like the greatest poll ever - but it does give her a large advantage (though I’m not sure the demographic makeup is representative of the district).

I’d always assumed Jones would primary her, and she’d obviously attract a lot of national support -but Tlaib has done all she can to get good will. If I had to bet I’d say she narrowly wins the primary over Jones.

https://mirsnews.com/images/MI_CD13_DEM_PRIMARY_AUG_2020_TARGET_INSYGHT_07_26_2019.pdf

[Ilhan Apologist]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-squad-probably-doesnt-have-to-worry-about-primary-challengers/

[Senator Incitatus]

I assumed it was CW that she was renting the seat from Jones.

It was never conventional wisdom, it was always based on an entirely reductive view of the dynamics of the district from people who've never stepped foot in it and are desperate to get Tlaib out of the seat (Hm, I wonder why ).

Lots more writing than thinking here.

[BP🌹]

LOL! Why were Atlas neolibs' hopes so high?

[Cyrusman]

What’s with this district why do they like her so much?

[😥]

Probably, no. But I would very happy if she will lose primary to more moderate Democrat or even general election to Republican

[brucejoel99]

What’s with this district why do they like her so much?

Districts like when their representatives are, y'know, good. Novel concept, I know.