MI-13: Will Rashida Tlaib win re-election?

[morgieb]

Similar kind of question to the Omar one but given Detroit is a machine city, I think this one is in significantly more doubt than the other three. I'll still say yes but the right kind of black Democrat could easily win a primary here.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

No. She wouldn't have won her first primary if it wasn't for a split vote. She's a plurality Congresswoman and she's unlikely to be that lucky the second time.

[Ilhan Apologist]

She's in the most danger of the four of them, but I think she's done the most constituent outreach.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think her fighting with Trump will save her.

[Fuzzy Bear]

She's an anti-American, anti-Semitic steaming pile.  I certainly hope she gets a primary, and I hope she loses.

[We Live in Black and White]

She's the only member of the Squad I'd bet against, purely because of the nature of Detroit machine politics.

[wesmoorenerd]

I think she's favored. At this rate, she's becoming one of the most prominent members of Congress.

[Indy Texas]

I think her fighting with Trump will save her.

The main leaders of "the Squad" seem to be Omar and AOC.

Tlaib and Pressley are just kind of there in the background.

[brucejoel99]

She's definitely highly vulnerable in a primary (Brenda Jones, anybody?), but for the reasons that everybody has already brought up (competent constituent outreach, the feud with Trump, her national prominence), I'd still guess that she'll win re-election, yes.

[Ronnie]

She's an anti-American, anti-Semitic steaming pile.  I certainly hope she gets a primary, and I hope she loses.

I hope everybody realizes that while the right accuses everyone who stands up for Palestinian rights (in this case, an actual Palestinian) of being an antisemite, the people who have committed actual violence against Jews in recent times in the US are on the extreme right, and a Republican senator used real Nazi-like antisemitic tropes in a recent speech.

[Brittain33]

Yeah, I am sensitive to anti-Semitism and people whose anti-Israel views shade into anti-Semitism, but it's a bit much to expect a Palestinian-American to not have some bad feelings toward Israel.

[Indy Texas]

Yeah, I am sensitive to anti-Semitism and people whose anti-Israel views shade into anti-Semitism, but it's a bit much to expect a Palestinian-American to not have some bad feelings toward Israel.

It is interesting that Justin Amash never faced similar accusations, even though he has what certain types would call an "anti-Israel" voting record (i.e. not voting to give Israel an unlimited supply of US taxpayer-funded weapons).

Perhaps it's because he was never particularly vocal about the issue and he votes against the government spending any money on anything in general.

[Frenchrepublican]

She's an anti-American, anti-Semitic steaming pile.  I certainly hope she gets a primary, and I hope she loses.

This

Unfortunately she will likely win reelection.

[Oryxslayer]

It all comes down to whether you believe incumbency, constituent outreach, and newsworthy moments are more powerful than the demographic reality of this seat in the primary. Tlaib has a core base of voters, and she can likely pick up more from the white suburban parts of the seats, but it comes down to AA Detroit. An AA challenger will likely hop in lateish to avoid getting crucified as a centrist sellout immediately and she will certainly have a fight on her hands.

However, 2020 fair redistricting might be nice for tlaib, even if she is out of office. Dearborn and Dearborn heights are a clear community of interest, so they will be unified rather than cracked between seats. If they are put with the suburbs tlaib already won, and Detroit is pulled out of the seat for obvious community of interest reasons, you likely have a seat tlaib can get 50%+ in the primary in. She just needs to win the primary vs Dingell.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I think her fighting with Trump will save her.

She'll be tough to beat.  But her Holocaust comments are what they are, and lots of Democratic donors aren't going to be thrilled that such an individual gets so much media attention.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

She’s safe in the primary.

https://twitter.com/nilesgapol/status/1155547740262326273?s=21

[brucejoel99]

She’s safe in the primary.

https://twitter.com/nilesgapol/status/1155547740262326273?s=21

That's a relief.

[S019]

I don't buy early polls, but to answer the question, no, she won't win re-election. She's running in a city with a strong machine presence and strong African American presence. She won by a plurality as multiple African Americans split the vote, I don't think she's as lucky this time. And regarding the Trump thing, Brenda Jones could easily adopt anti Trump rhetoric, which would cancel out her only chance.

My prediction: Brenda Jones 56-44 over Rashida Tlaib (inc.)

[brucejoel99]

I don't buy early polls, but to answer the question, no, she won't win re-election. She's running in a city with a strong machine presence and strong African American presence. She won by a plurality as multiple African Americans split the vote, I don't think she's as lucky this time. And regarding the Trump thing, Brenda Jones could easily adopt anti Trump rhetoric, which would cancel out her only chance.

My prediction: Brenda Jones 56-44 over Rashida Tlaib (inc.)

Disagree. Even considering the fact that she's not black in a black VRA seat (even a seat which has a black State Senate seat within it that unseated a longtime white incumbent for a random black candidate who didn't campaign, no less), she's polling over 50% with 1/6th to 1/4th of the electorate undecided.

Prior to this poll, I understand how Tlaib could lose the primary, considering how close it was in 2018. But at this point, if she's polling at 56% with Brenda Jones only at 19% on the hypothetical ballot, then I think sure she's practically secured her seat at this point.

Yeah, the other squad members are way safer (obviously nobody's wrong in saying that she's the most vulnerable Squad member) but with these kinds of numbers, I'd say that she's still unlikely to be toppled.

[OneJ]

She’s safe in the primary.

https://twitter.com/nilesgapol/status/1155547740262326273?s=21

And Tlaib has the best net favorable numbers as well.

Jones:
48% Favorable
11% Unfavorable
41% Never heard or No opinion

Napoleon:
53% Favorable
24% Unfavorable
23% Never heard or No opinion

Tlaib also has a 76-14 job approval rating.

I wish there were crosstabs to break the numbers down by race, but she's safe lol.

[S019]

Ummm, trusting polls a year before the election, oh yes, this is so accurate

[terp40hitch]

Tlaib could easily lose in the primary. The district is heavily african-American and if Brenda Jones runs then I could see Tlaib lose especially if establishment Dems endorse Jones

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's funny watching the blue avs fall over themselves trying to convince themselves that Tlaib will somehow lose.

[brucejoel99]

Ummm, trusting polls a year before the election, oh yes, this is so accurate

I'm trusting what I'm being told the mood of the electorate is at the moment, yes. If that happens to change over the course of the next year, then so be it.

[Sestak]

Ummm, trusting polls a year before the election, oh yes, this is so accurate

But Biden is guaranteed to win the primary amirite