NBC News SurveyMonkey Mississippi Poll: Rs ahead by 9 and 12

[Tender Branson]

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Phil Bryant is handling his job as governor of Mississippi?

70% approve
29% disapprove

If the 2019 election for governor were being held today among the following candidates, who would you vote for?

53% Bill Waller (R)
41% Jim Hood (D)

51% Tate Reeves (R)
42% Jim Hood (D)

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6206542-NBC-News-SurveyMonkey-Mississippi-Poll-7-19.html

[Politician]

ShadowOfTheWave in 3, 2, 1...

But yeah it's SurveyMonkey

[President Johnson]

Safe Republican

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R

[DaWN]

Looks like we all overestimated the competitiveness of this one then

[ElectionsGuy]

As it turns out, Mississippi is still a red state.

[President Johnson]

As it turns out, Mississippi is still a red state.

It's inelastic, even at the gubernatorial level. Kansas is a red state and Massachusetts a blue state, and both have popular governors from the other party.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Would like PPP or someone credible to come in and confirm or disconfirm the CW that Hood has a chance

Jim Hood is the hero they need, but not the one they deserve

[Senator Incitatus]

Would like PPP or someone credible to come in and confirm or disconfirm the CW that Hood has a chance

Jim Hood is the hero they need, but not the one they deserve

This is not conventional wisdom; this is Atlas "wisdom."

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hood has to get over 50% anyways

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Would like PPP or someone credible to come in and confirm or disconfirm the CW that Hood has a chance

Jim Hood is the hero they need, but not the one they deserve

This is not conventional wisdom; this is Atlas "wisdom."

Why would it go against CW that a Democrat that has won in Misssissippi four times has a chance at winning a fifth time?

[Rookie Yinzer]

The Mississippi deplorables aren't going to give Hood the Governorship. It'll be close though.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The Mississippi deplorables aren't going to give Hood the Governorship. It'll be close though.

Quite a shame, too. I guess the voters there are content being 49 or 50 out of 50 in everything.

[Pollster]

In these hyperpolarized southern states, it really would behoove us to see the race crosstabs - if the undecideds lean AA, this is a better poll for Hood than meets the eye. If the undecideds are mostly white, then it looks like a fairly typical MS statewide election.

[brucejoel99]

So, Mississippians are perfectly happy with the status quo that is one of the worst education systems in the country & pathetically poor people with no possible escape from welfare? WHY? Why, Mississippi, why?!

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

So, Mississippians are perfectly happy with the status quo that is one of the worst education systems in the country & pathetically poor people with no possible escape from welfare? WHY? Why, Mississippi, why?!

I guess 70% of Mississippians are fine with being last in everything but incest and DUIs

[UncleSam]

Maybe they don’t wanna vote for a Democrat when Democrats generally despise them lol

Also as if Voting in a bunch of Democrats would magically make MS a better place to live lol. Is Illinois a nice place to live? There are plenty of sh**tty states controlled by both parties, just as there are plenty of nice states controlled by both parties.

[ElectionsGuy]

So, Mississippians are perfectly happy with the status quo that is one of the worst education systems in the country & pathetically poor people with no possible escape from welfare? WHY? Why, Mississippi, why?!

I guess 70% of Mississippians are fine with being last in everything but incest and DUIs

You know that has to include a decent amount of black voters though. I don't know why Bryant is so popular but clearly, it crosses typical partisan and racial grounds.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Maybe they don’t wanna vote for a Democrat when Democrats generally despise them lol

Also as if Voting in a bunch of Democrats would magically make MS a better place to live lol. Is Illinois a nice place to live? There are plenty of sh**tty states controlled by both parties, just as there are plenty of nice states controlled by both parties.

Better than Mississippi.

[OneJ]

Not great for Hood, but reminder that this is SurveyMonkey and it should be noted that the sample is 69% white.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since, KY has been moved to tossup, its too early to count out Hood, retract what I said earlier

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Not great for Hood, but reminder that this is SurveyMonkey and it should be noted that the sample is 69% white.

Hmm. Is it reasonable for the electorate to be 40% black? That would make up the difference by itself

[OneJ]

Not great for Hood, but reminder that this is SurveyMonkey and it should be noted that the sample is 69% white.

Hmm. Is it reasonable for the electorate to be 40% black? That would make up the difference by itself

Not quite. I would say somewhere between the high 20s to low 30s. For reference, it was estimated to be about 32% in '16 and the same in the '18 Senate races (exit polls) before the runoff.

Now a ~70% white electorate doesn't seem improbable to me, especially if turnout is quite low. But because I'm expecting this election to be higher than usual as far as turnout goes, I would assume the white % would be no higher than 65%. So this probably does inflate Reeves' numbers (and maybe Bryant's popularity) to a degree.

[smoltchanov]

As it turns out, Mississippi is still a red state.

It's inelastic, even at the gubernatorial level. Kansas is a red state and Massachusetts a blue state, and both have popular governors from the other party.

Extremely so. After this year election, when some "oldtimers" will leave legislature, it will really be possible to predict legislative results simply looking at district's racial composition. And assign all statewide elections as "safe Republican"...

[smoltchanov]

Not great for Hood, but reminder that this is SurveyMonkey and it should be noted that the sample is 69% white.

Hmm. Is it reasonable for the electorate to be 40% black? That would make up the difference by itself

Not quite. I would say somewhere between the high 20s to low 30s. For reference, it was estimated to be about 32% in '16 and the same in the '18 Senate races (exit polls) before the runoff.

Now a ~70% white electorate doesn't seem improbable to me, especially if turnout is quite low. But because I'm expecting this election to be higher than usual as far as turnout goes, I would assume the white % would be no higher than 65%. So this probably does inflate Reeves' numbers (and maybe Bryant's popularity) to a degree.

Yeah. I expect Hood to lose by 5 now, so that will be even overperformance of Espy's result. But - he simply can't get percentages of Trumpist white vote (especially in North-East of the state) comparable to his 2015 numbers. They like Trump and slogans like "build the wall and send them home!", and Hood's percentage there will crash... Essentially, Trump set new "standard" there...