I'm very curious to see the county map for this race. It's gonna be weird. Right now, I have Warnock winning the counties in red (Abrams '18, Fayette, the expanded black belt, and a few smaller metros.) That said, I have absolutely no idea how the blue counties are going to go except for some vague sense Collins will overperform in his Northeast Georgia district and Loeffler might do best in the rest of the Atlanta exurbs. South Georgia is a big question mark so far as I'm concerned. What are your thoughts?
The best analogy right now is the 2019 Louisiana Governors race. Warnock is somewhere between 40 and 50 percent, and his Republican opposition is dueling in the 20s. This absolutely means that Warnock will carry a ton of Republican counties in the first round on pluralities thanks to favorable vote splits. Now I'm not sure where Warnock will see more plurality victories, but he will get it. One point of view suggests that the northern subrubs and exurbs are moving towards the Dems so there are enough Blue voters to see Warnock sneak through on 38% pluralities. The other line of thought sees all the 40% AA counties that vote red in the south of the state and expects them to flip because of vote splits.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/10/12/us/elections/results-louisiana-governor-primary-election.html
Right but the big question is where does the vote split and by what margins? If Loeffler is winning--for example--the Republican vote in Forsyth 65-35, she's going to get a plurality in the county. Only if it's 50-50 does the map get shaky. My question, then, is where is Loeffler's base and where is Collins'.
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