GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1219722294341226496

If true, will definitely switch from Tarver to him.

[Del Tachi]

Trump is clearly the favorite to win GA.

It’s nowhere near as "clear" as you and others are making it out to be. Regardless, even if he wins GA by 1-2%, that hardly guarantees a GOP victory in the special election (for obvious reasons).

Trump wont outperform Senate Republicans in the Sunbelt

That is likely true, but Georgia is a special case because Trump can win 48/46, but Loeffler and Perdue can't.  If Trump gets a plurality win and they track him exactly, they are going to be thrown into January runoffs with likely sky high Dem turnout (assuming Trump just got reelected).

If Trump is winning GA 48/46, then the January runoffs will be featuring sky-high turnout from Republican voters because a Democratic president will have just been elected. 

Trump under 50% in GA does not bode well for his reelection chances. 

[We Live in Black and White]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1219722294341226496

The best competitive state in the nation to run a priest as a serious candidate. For once I agree with the DSCC's strategizing.

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1219722294341226496

I'm sure #CobbCountyWineMoms will love a Black preacher as Democratic nominee

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1219722294341226496

I'm sure #CobbCountyWineMoms will love a Black preacher as Democratic nominee

They'll have Ossoff on the other side to satisfy those desires. Because double headers rarely diverge in outcomes, it has been the Democrats goal (on paper) to get a Atlanta White on one side and a African American on the other, to try and juice energy among both constituencies.

[Oryxslayer]

Interesting AJC piece on HB 757 presently in the GA legislature. This bill would set the filing deadline for GA specials to be concurrent with regular elections in March. It would also allow for party primaries for the runoff seat. This would decrease the chance of it going to a runoff, but still could depending on minors. The democrats obviously want to avoid that runoff. The article notes though that the bill it is being considered by more than the Dems, an alliance of Collins's legislative allies also desire HB 757. For them, getting a GOP primary where Collins can run head to head with Loeffer is step one to Senator Collins. So, there is a potential pact in the works between Collins's allys and the more radical wing of the GA GOP and the Democrats against Kemp's Executive branch and it's GOP allies.

[Roronoa D. Law]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1219722294341226496

I'm sure #CobbCountyWineMoms will love a Black preacher as Democratic nominee

I would love to know when was the last time Kelly picked up a Bible.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1219722294341226496

Yes! Finally the Dems gets a good recruit

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1219722294341226496

I'm sure #CobbCountyWineMoms will love a Black preacher as Democratic nominee

They'll have Ossoff on the other side to satisfy those desires. Because double headers rarely diverge in outcomes, it has been the Democrats goal (on paper) to get a Atlanta White on one side and a African American on the other, to try and juice energy among both constituencies.

Didn't think of it this way but this makes a lot of sense and is very smart...

[Pollster]

Tomlinson/Warnock is exactly what the GA Dems need, and each one is the perfect contrast to their eventual opponents.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It seems that there is movement in Georgia legislature to make this a normal general election with partisan primaries, etc, instead of a November jungle primary.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/democratic-bid-alter-the-georgia-melee-for-senate-seat/p9hbVzZnekxZYeBVo5l3LJ/

[Rookie Yinzer]

It seems that there is movement in Georgia legislature to make this a normal general election with partisan primaries, etc, instead of a November jungle primary.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/democratic-bid-alter-the-georgia-melee-for-senate-seat/p9hbVzZnekxZYeBVo5l3LJ/

Yes. Both sides want this for different reasons. I want Warnock as the sole D on the ballot. I would be livid if interlopers like Lieberman who has never done anything for GA Dems ed up this race.

[Oryxslayer]

It seems that there is movement in Georgia legislature to make this a normal general election with partisan primaries, etc, instead of a November jungle primary.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/democratic-bid-alter-the-georgia-melee-for-senate-seat/p9hbVzZnekxZYeBVo5l3LJ/

Yes. Both sides want this for different reasons. I want Warnock as the sole D on the ballot. I would be livid if interlopers like Lieberman who has never done anything for GA Dems ed up this race.

Yes, like I described above, dems want just Warnock and Collins's GOP allies want a primary where they can replace Loeffer. So there is a crossbench alliance. It's Kemp and his Republican Allies who want to keep the current lineup.

[Bidenworth2020]

Tomlinson/Warnock is exactly what the GA Dems need, and each one is the perfect contrast to their eventual opponents.

I was kind of hoping for a white army vet type against loeffler, since she probably has some serious weakness in rural areas that should not be left unexploited. Maybe Warnock's faith will bring in a few rural ancestral democrats. I at least want to improve off of Abrams' horrendous performance in rural Georgia, though even that may be too optimistic.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I at least want to improve off of Abrams' horrendous performance in rural Georgia, though even that may be too optimistic.

Rural GA is losing population and it's African-Americans leaving and moving to Metro Atlanta. Abrams did worse than Hillary in South Georgia but still made huge inroads in closing the gap statewide. It's intra-state migration and it's not hurting us statewide. It is what is.

[Bidenworth2020]

I at least want to improve off of Abrams' horrendous performance in rural Georgia, though even that may be too optimistic.

Rural GA is losing population and it's African-Americans leaving and moving to Metro Atlanta. Abrams did worse than Hillary in South Georgia but still made huge inroads in closing the gap statewide. It's intra-state migration and it's not hurting us statewide. It is what is.

Fair points, though I would add that black transplants moving from places like Detroit/Chicago/Baltimore to Atlanta is really what is moving the needle towards us, and rural areas sure as hell have not been helping us out in the Trump era. BTW, I would be interested to hear why y you/ the "Atlas Consensus" think Warnock is so strong-- sure, he might to help gin black turnout, but what about Asians/Hispanics who were so crucial to Abrams.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I at least want to improve off of Abrams' horrendous performance in rural Georgia, though even that may be too optimistic.

Rural GA is losing population and it's African-Americans leaving and moving to Metro Atlanta. Abrams did worse than Hillary in South Georgia but still made huge inroads in closing the gap statewide. It's intra-state migration and it's not hurting us statewide. It is what is.

Fair points, though I would add that black transplants moving from places like Detroit/Chicago/Baltimore to Atlanta is really what is moving the needle towards us, and rural areas sure as hell have not been helping us out in the Trump era. BTW, I would be interested to hear why y you/ the "Atlas Consensus" think Warnock is so strong-- sure, he might to help gin black turnout, but what about Asians/Hispanics who were so crucial to Abrams.

I don't think the intra-state migration is doing anything to close the gap because they already live here lol I was saying it's not hurting our margins statewide doing worse in South GA because them moving is making the Metro more Democratic.

Nothing about Abrams was unique to make Asians and Hispanics turn out the way they did. She just embraced these groups, had them in prominent senior positions on her campaign, ran Spanish language ads, had literature/GOTV materials in Spanish, Vietnamese, Mandarin, Korean, Tagalog, etc. She really dived in down to the precinct level to milk every Democratic vote she could. Warnock, who will likely be endorsed by Abrams from day one will presumably be following her statewide template.

He's also just a strong speaker. Like I'm not religious AT ALL but he's able to connect it to the moral failings of poverty in a way that just inspires me without beating me over the head with it. He is tailor made for a state like GA with a heavy religious black population but a young, transplant, less/non-religious bloc of votes.

[QAnonKelly]

Wonder if/when Collins is going to make a decision. Personally I hope he jumps in but I could see Turtle getting involved.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Tomlinson/Warnock is exactly what the GA Dems need, and each one is the perfect contrast to their eventual opponents.

From what I’ve gathered, Tomlinson has been a pretty underwhelming candidate so far.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Tomlinson/Warnock is exactly what the GA Dems need, and each one is the perfect contrast to their eventual opponents.

From what I’ve gathered, Tomlinson has been a pretty underwhelming candidate so far.

True, but she's basically just done a hard reset on her campaign. Hopefully, her new staff will serve her better than the old.

[SnowLabrador]

Warnock is the best candidate we could get short of Stacey Abrams. I'm skeptical that Georgia can flip in a Presidential year, but we'll see.

[Pollster]

Tomlinson/Warnock is exactly what the GA Dems need, and each one is the perfect contrast to their eventual opponents.

From what I’ve gathered, Tomlinson has been a pretty underwhelming candidate so far.

True, but she's basically just done a hard reset on her campaign. Hopefully, her new staff will serve her better than the old.

Yes, she was running a lackadaisical campaign but her new hires are incredibly promising. She ran superb races in Columbus in 2010 and 2014 and is a capable candidate. But the clock is ticking and its time to start taking the race seriously.

[Pollster]

Tomlinson/Warnock is exactly what the GA Dems need, and each one is the perfect contrast to their eventual opponents.

I was kind of hoping for a white army vet type against loeffler, since she probably has some serious weakness in rural areas that should not be left unexploited. Maybe Warnock's faith will bring in a few rural ancestral democrats. I at least want to improve off of Abrams' horrendous performance in rural Georgia, though even that may be too optimistic.

Tomlinson isn't an Atlanta politician - her base is Columbus where she is popular and was the first mayor to ever be reelected. Warnock meanwhile will send Atlanta turnout through the roof and could even outdo Abrams.

I suspect both will be able to hold the gains in GA6 and GA7, especially with Trump on the ballot and Perdue/Loeffler likely running in lockstep with him. Tomlinson looks like a good possibility to have high suburban appeal, but that's obviously not tested yet.

[Heebie Jeebie]

https://twitter.com/teresatomlinson/status/1220315331320799232

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1221954060754071554