GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

What are the odds Warnock actually clears 50%? I know some lame Dems like Lieberman and Tarver are running, but if enough GOPers hate Collins and Loeffler for this madness and leave it blank or high Black turnout in Georgia happens, could Warnock avoid the runoff?

I think there were some polls earlier in the cycle that found that when people were questioned about all the candidates on the ballot (rather than just Loeffler, Collins, Tarver, Lieberman, and Warnock), the spoiler Dems scored way lower than most polls. Be interesting to see how much that holds come November 3.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

What are the odds Warnock actually clears 50%? I know some lame Dems like Lieberman and Tarver are running, but if enough GOPers hate Collins and Loeffler for this madness and leave it blank or high Black turnout in Georgia happens, could Warnock avoid the runoff?

I think there were some polls earlier in the cycle that found that when people were questioned about all the candidates on the ballot (rather than just Loeffler, Collins, Tarver, Lieberman, and Warnock), the spoiler Dems scored way lower than most polls. Be interesting to see how much that holds come November 3.

I'd give it maybe a 20% chance.

[Former President tack50]

I'm very curious to see the county map for this race. It's gonna be weird. Right now, I have Warnock winning the counties in red (Abrams '18, Fayette, the expanded black belt, and a few smaller metros.) That said, I have absolutely no idea how the blue counties are going to go except for some vague sense Collins will overperform in his Northeast Georgia district and Loeffler might do best in the rest of the Atlanta exurbs. South Georgia is a big question mark so far as I'm concerned. What are your thoughts?

Given this is de facto a 3 way election (the other Dem doesn't seem to be gaining any traction); wouldn't it be very likely that Warnock gets a ton of rural counties that would never vote D in a general election or runoff with 30 or 40% pluralities?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'm very curious to see the county map for this race. It's gonna be weird. Right now, I have Warnock winning the counties in red (Abrams '18, Fayette, the expanded black belt, and a few smaller metros.) That said, I have absolutely no idea how the blue counties are going to go except for some vague sense Collins will overperform in his Northeast Georgia district and Loeffler might do best in the rest of the Atlanta exurbs. South Georgia is a big question mark so far as I'm concerned. What are your thoughts?

Given this is de facto a 3 way election (the other Dem doesn't seem to be gaining any traction); wouldn't it be very likely that Warnock gets a ton of rural counties that would never vote D in a general election or runoff with 30 or 40% pluralities?

Yes. And they're the ones colored red on my map. Everything else is too Republican even for that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gov. Brian Kemp has canceled an appearance with Loeffler in Monroe because...

...he and Mrs. Kemp are quarantining after exposure to COVID-19...

...which apparently is from Rep. Drew Ferguson, who tested positive and is symptomatic...

...after Kemp and Ferguson appeared together at a large Republican rally on Tuesday...

...which violated the governor's own state rules of no gatherings of more than 50 people.


You can't make this stuff up.

[Torrain]

Doug Collins strikes a new blow against Kelly Loeffler in their race to the bottom right

https://twitter.com/CollinsforGA/status/1322286861965053952

(Also, the sheer irony of wearing the words 'Keep America Great', on the facemask you're wearing to protect yourself against a deadly virus raging through your country)

[brucejoel99]

Doug Collins strikes a new blow against Kelly Loeffler in their race to the bottom right

https://twitter.com/CollinsforGA/status/1322286861965053952

Well, that'll convince the undecideds.

[Calthrina950]

Doug Collins strikes a new blow against Kelly Loeffler in their race to the bottom right

https://twitter.com/CollinsforGA/status/1322286861965053952

(Also, the sheer irony of wearing the words 'Keep America Great', on the facemask you're wearing to protect yourself against a deadly virus raging through your country)

I can't agree more. It's astonishing that Trump supporters seem to think that we're better off than we were four years ago, at the end of Obama's Presidency. We weren't wearing masks four years ago. We didn't have such high unemployment figures, social distancing guidelines, quarantines, virtual learning, canceled events, tests, or any of that. We are worse off than we were four years ago.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Doug Collins strikes a new blow against Kelly Loeffler in their race to the bottom right

https://twitter.com/CollinsforGA/status/1322286861965053952
(Also, the sheer irony of wearing the words 'Keep America Great', on the facemask you're wearing to protect yourself against a deadly virus raging through your country)

I can't agree more. It's astonishing that Trump supporters seem to think that we're better off than we were four years ago, at the end of Obama's Presidency. We weren't wearing masks four years ago. We didn't have such high unemployment figures, social distancing guidelines, quarantines, virtual learning, canceled events, tests, or any of that. We are worse off than we were four years ago.

But four years ago Obama was President, therefore we were worse off.  (Not sarcasm - I  know at least one Trump supporter who actually thinks this way.)

[wbrocks67]

It would truly be delicious if Warnock made 50 at this point and Loeffler and Collins just made complete fools of themselves in a race to the bottom.

[Blair]

The felons for Collins campaign grows.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Doug Collins strikes a new blow against Kelly Loeffler in their race to the bottom right

https://twitter.com/CollinsforGA/status/1322286861965053952

(Also, the sheer irony of wearing the words 'Keep America Great', on the facemask you're wearing to protect yourself against a deadly virus raging through your country)

I can't agree more. It's astonishing that Trump supporters seem to think that we're better off than we were four years ago, at the end of Obama's Presidency. We weren't wearing masks four years ago. We didn't have such high unemployment figures, social distancing guidelines, quarantines, virtual learning, canceled events, tests, or any of that. We are worse off than we were four years ago.

It's easy to think that "America is Great" when you are mentally capable of ignoring the problems of the country to suit your worldview.

[Calthrina950]

Doug Collins strikes a new blow against Kelly Loeffler in their race to the bottom right

https://twitter.com/CollinsforGA/status/1322286861965053952

(Also, the sheer irony of wearing the words 'Keep America Great', on the facemask you're wearing to protect yourself against a deadly virus raging through your country)

I can't agree more. It's astonishing that Trump supporters seem to think that we're better off than we were four years ago, at the end of Obama's Presidency. We weren't wearing masks four years ago. We didn't have such high unemployment figures, social distancing guidelines, quarantines, virtual learning, canceled events, tests, or any of that. We are worse off than we were four years ago.

It's easy to think that "America is Great" when you are mentally capable of ignoring the problems of the country to suit your worldview.

That much is true. And given that most of Trump's supporters are holding "China", the "Deep State", "Dr. Fauci", "Bill Gates", the "Democrats", the "CDC", or some combination of the above responsible for the pandemic, and not Trump himself, it isn't surprising. Many people have secluded themselves into echo chambers, and are unwilling to listen to anything which challenges their viewpoints.

[QAnonKelly]

Doug Collins strikes a new blow against Kelly Loeffler in their race to the bottom right

https://twitter.com/CollinsforGA/status/1322286861965053952

(Also, the sheer irony of wearing the words 'Keep America Great', on the facemask you're wearing to protect yourself against a deadly virus raging through your country)

What a motley crew he’s assembled

[7,052,770]

So Lieberman came in 5th, nearly 200,000 votes behind another Democrat named Deborah Jackson.

And Ed Tarver came in ... 15th place?!? Should I be surprised by both of these?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

If Purdue wins without a runoff, so control of the Senate is not in question, I think Warnock has chance.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Warnock is already running TV ads for the runoff.  I just saw one on CNN.

[MT Treasurer]

Loeffler can thank her lucky stars that this race will be nationalized like no other seat in the country because a runoff that decides control of the Senate is pretty much the only runoff she can win in modern-day GA. Even if she wins in January (which I expect her to), she’ll be very vulnerable in 2022.

[jamestroll]

Loeffler can thank her lucky stars that this race will be nationalized like no other seat in the country because a runoff that decides control of the Senate is pretty much the only runoff she can win in modern-day GA. Even if she wins in January (which I expect her to), she’ll be very vulnerable in 2022.

]

If she wins in January and in 2022 I will lose my temper and just break stuff and bang my head against the wall

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Does anyone have a clear understanding for why Loeffler beat Collins in this race?
I don't have any sense for what distinguished Loeffler's constituency from Collins' constituency.
The exist polls really don't provide a lot of insight; Loeffler beat Collins among every demographic group, and none hugely more than others.  Even the county map seems pretty scattered.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2020/exit-polls/georgia-exit-polls/#senate

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Does anyone have a clear understanding for why Loeffler beat Collins in this race?
I don't have any sense for what distinguished Loeffler's constituency from Collins' constituency.
The exist polls really don't provide a lot of insight; Loeffler beat Collins among every demographic group, and none hugely more than others.  Even the county map seems pretty scattered.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2020/exit-polls/georgia-exit-polls/#senate

Bloombucks boosting her name ID, perhaps? The primary got mixed up with the general election and my best guess is that turned into more of a name ID contest than an ordinary GOP primary.

Maybe the 'more conservative than Attila the Hun' pandering worked.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/09/loeffler-perdue-georgia-secretary-state-resign-435484

Republican Sens. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue of Georgia called on the state’s GOP secretary of state to resign on Monday, citing “failures” in the election process but not providing any specific evidence to support their claims.

“There have been too many failures in Georgia elections this year and the most recent election has shined a national light on the problems,” Loeffler and Perdue said in a joint statement. “The Secretary of State has failed to deliver honest and transparent elections. He has failed the people of Georgia, and he should step down immediately."

....
Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger responded in a statement Monday saying he would not resign, and defended his office's handling of the election. He said the election was a "resounding success" from an administration perspective. He highlighted his office's briefings and updates to argue that they had conducted the process with transparency.

"I know emotions are running high. Politics are involved in everything right now," Raffensperger said. "If I was Senator Perdue, I’d be irritated I was in a runoff. And both Senators and I are all unhappy with the potential outcome for our President. But I am the duly elected Secretary of State. One of my duties involves helping to run elections for all Georgia voters. I have taken that oath, and I will execute that duty and follow Georgia law."

Raffensperger said the process for reporting results in the state was orderly and followed the law. And he added that while he was "sure" there were illegal votes cast, it was "unlikely" that there total rose to the "numbers or margin necessary to change the outcome" of the election.

He also took a shot at Perdue and Loeffler for their criticism: "As a Republican, I am concerned about Republicans keeping the U.S. Senate. I recommend that Senators Loeffler and Perdue start focusing on that."

[Frenchrepublican]

Romney/Biden voters will love that :

https://twitter.com/StephenLawson_/status/1326171480170827777?s=20

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Romney/Biden voters will love that :

https://twitter.com/StephenLawson_/status/1326171480170827777?s=20

Georgia Democratic Senate candidate Raphael Warnock worked at a church that hosted and celebrated late Cuban dictator Fidel Castro in 1995, past news stories and Warnock's biography indicate.

Warnock's campaign, though, says he was a junior member of the staff at the time Castro spoke at the church and was not a decision-maker.

The 1995 event came as the U.S. allowed Castro to stay within a 25-mile radius of the United Nations in New York City, where he denounced the U.S.'s embargo on Cuba and received applause from some at the General Assembly.

Castro received a similarly warm reception at Abyssinian Baptist Church in Harlem, where Warnock worked at the time. The Miami Herald reported at the time that Castro “blast[ed] the United States with the vigor that was missing from his speech to the United Nations earlier in the day and winding up the evening with a rousing rendition of the socialist hymn Internationale.”

FWIW the campaign is said to have "declined  to provide further comment on whether Warnock attended that particular event," beyond the following:

"Twenty-five years ago, Reverend Warnock was a youth pastor and was not involved in any decisions at that time."

However, it's not clear whether Fox actually pressed them on that.

[lfromnj]

Yeah he has been having some dirt coming out recently, GOP must have been saving it for the runoff. Don't know if it will stick.