Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v2

[Agonized-Statism]

My take is that he has an extremely high floor. He has the entirety of the Old Confederacy, at least parts of the Midwest and Northeast, and I personally think he has the Southwest. His only problem is that he doesn't generate that much enthusiasm and I could see Warren winning in an upset by pulling off surprise wins in some of these places.

If he wins South Carolina and Nevada, as I think he will, it can be sold as an even 2-for-2.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Biden can still win if he places top 2/3 in Iowa and New Hampshire. But if Warren wins both those states AND Nevada, his chances take a big hit. Bernie winning any of those states over Warren helps Biden the most.

[History505]

Yes, he can still win the nomination.

[GP270watch]

 Biden has run a bad campaign and his inevitability is an illusion. He won't inspire the people Democrats really need to win and the idea he's going to win over some moderates is a mistake.

 I hope he doesn't win. He doesn't represent the future of The Democratic Party.

[MT Treasurer]

Yes, he definitely can, especially if he wins NV. If he does a lot worse than expected in SC/on Super Tuesday, then we can talk.

[Sir Mohamed]

Probably not. Mathematically it's possible, for sure, but in practice not happening. If Biden loses IA and NH, that will cost him too much momentum to rebound. In this case, I predict a Biden win in SC, but with an underwhelming margin.

My gut feeling (no prediction) is that Buttigieg will either win IA outright or come in a strong 2nd, at the same time Biden and Sanders are very weak.

[Heebie Jeebie]

He still has an opportunity.

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1189552559977091074

[MT Treasurer]

Probably not. Mathematically it's possible, for sure, but piratically not happening. If Biden loses IA and NH, that will cost him too much momentum to rebound.

Because the demographics of the Democratic electorate in IA and NH totally resemble those of the Democratic electorate in NV, SC, etc.? Clinton nearly lost both states in 2016 and still won the nomination in a landslide.

[Gustaf]

Of course he can. People on Atlas really underestimate Biden because they dislike him. I'd bet on Warren winning if I had to guess right now, but Biden still has a very solid shot.

And there is not much evidence he will collapse either, he's been pretty robust in the polls once you control for the slide after his announcement bump.

[TDAS04]

Yes.  He can also lose.

[UWS]

Primaries are pretty much over, Biden has solidified the AA vote and Harris support. Biden wins primary by Super Tuesday, when the South votes.  On the GE. He can coopt the millionaire tax and student loan forgiveness, by rescinding the top brackets tax cuts. GOP love to say it raises taxes, but Trump keeps coming back to Speaker Pelosi asking for more money for the wall. With more money, we can fund wall, with Trump unaffordable tax cut repeal, thus social programs, like student loan forgiveness won't be cut.  Also, Section 8 vouchers can be opened up again.

Nope it is more likely than not that Biden loses the primaries.

I dont see how Warren can lose the Southern primaries and win, even if she does win Cali, TX VA and FL will cancel her delegate lead. Survey USA had Biden ahead in Cali

After all, even despite losing New York, Texas, Florida and California to Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primaries, Obama still won the nomination mostly due to his strength in the South thanks to black voter support.

[Sir Mohamed]

Primaries are pretty much over, Biden has solidified the AA vote and Harris support. Biden wins primary by Super Tuesday, when the South votes.  On the GE. He can coopt the millionaire tax and student loan forgiveness, by rescinding the top brackets tax cuts. GOP love to say it raises taxes, but Trump keeps coming back to Speaker Pelosi asking for more money for the wall. With more money, we can fund wall, with Trump unaffordable tax cut repeal, thus social programs, like student loan forgiveness won't be cut.  Also, Section 8 vouchers can be opened up again.

Nope it is more likely than not that Biden loses the primaries.

I dont see how Warren can lose the Southern primaries and win, even if she does win Cali, TX VA and FL will cancel her delegate lead. Survey USA had Biden ahead in Cali

After all, even despite losing New York, Texas, Florida and California to Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primaries, Obama still won the nomination mostly due to his strength in the South thanks to black voter support.

Fore sure Obama did, but black support could be shifting if Biden does poorly in IA and NH. Remember southern blacks only started to shift to Obama after his upset in IA. Before, they were mostly behind HRC.

[Sir Mohamed]

Probably not. Mathematically it's possible, for sure, but in practice not happening. If Biden loses IA and NH, that will cost him too much momentum to rebound.

Because the demographics of the Democratic electorate in IA and NH totally resemble those of the Democratic electorate in NV, SC, etc.? Clinton nearly lost both states in 2016 and still won the nomination in a landslide.

If Biden ends up 3rd or even 4th in IA with less than 20% of the vote, which is possible, it will cost him so much momentum that will be hard to regain. The momentum will be with Warren then and may cause Sanders to drop out or collapse. I'm not saying Biden is done if he fails in IA and NH, but his chances for the nom would be substantially reduced.

[Xing]

If he at least places 2nd or 3rd in IA/NH, then yes, he's still in the game. If he gets 4th in either AND loses NV, then he'll need a huge win in SC (larger than expected) to stay in the game.

[SN2903]

The nomination maybe, but his chances are slipping every day. The presidency no.

[Orser67]

Yes. Counter-intuitively, I think his campaign is helped by the presence of Sanders, who should perform well in NH and IA and thus prevent Warren from winning big in either state, which would in turn put an even bigger spotlight on SC. He can also plausibly claim that Warren and Sanders have a built-in advantage in NH since they both represent bordering states, and that IA's caucus is unrepresentative of the broader electorate. So I think he could even survive two third place finishes, though that would be pushing it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes.  He can also lose.

[Shadows]

Yes. But if he loses both of Iowa & NH & to the same person then he will 100% lose. I dont know why are people being so dumb. There will be 1 debate after Iowa where all Biden will be asked about will be his failure among young voters, lack of inspiration, how he is collapsing  & so on.

Then there will be another debate after NH & it will be about his gaffes, poor fundraising/grassroots support & so on. He will be hammered. The whole myth of his electability will be shattered. And then he goes to Nevada with that momentum. He is already losing or tied or marginally ahead & with that kind of result he loses Nevada too.

So before the SC debate, he does 0-3, crashes in fundraising. The media blasts him. You will have every single pundit digging some story about the failure of Joe. You will leaks & people giving scoops from the campaign.

You can't go 0-3 to South Carolina. No1 has gone to SC 0-3 & has won the nomination. In 2016 Clinton won Iowa & Nevada. In 2008 Obama won Iowa without which he would have lost.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden isnt gonna lose all three, IA, NH. Ca and NV have had all three frontrunners ahead. Warren and Sanders have to win all three to stay in, all Biden has to do is split and onto SC

[All Along The Watchtower]

God I hope he gets destroyed in both IA and NH.

[EJ24]

If you're running Biden's campaign, what central message are you focusing on to ensure he's the nominee rather than Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

About being strong on natl security and helping Obama kill Bin Laden in the raid. Has natl security experience with being close to Israel

[Podgy the Bear]

“I can appeal to independents, Warren can’t (or won’t)”

[Roll Roons]

“I can appeal to independents, Warren can’t (or won’t)”

This, plus his foreign policy experience is unmatched in the field. With 36 years on Senate Foreign Relations plus eight years as VP, he's well-respected among world leaders.

[BP🌹]

About being strong on natl security and helping Obama kill Bin Laden in the raid. Has natl security experience with being close to Israel

This is no longer an asset in Democratic primaries (thank god).

^{I do realize who I'm arguing with, but I wanted to make the point regardless.}