Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v2

[SN2903]

No, he's been bouncing between 25-30% for months.  In the last week or two he's gone back up 5% on RCP.  He still has the highest % of voters considering him, the best numbers vs Trump, the highest (or tied for highest) favorability ratings, and broad support across all demographic groups except young people, who are dumb and never vote.  Furthermore, he is still crushing the field with black voters, he's still winning all the important party endorsements, and his policies are still the most popular among both Democrats and the general electorate.  So his numbers haven't changed and the fundamentals that give him a strong lead haven't changed.

The main dynamic in the race is Warren surging.  She's picked up a lot of the Harris voters as well as the Sanders voters who left after the heart attack.  She's also been winning undecideds.

It's tempting to say that this momentum will last.  But Warren has been cruising on 100% favorable coverage and zero scrutiny.  As we saw in the last debate, her time in the spotlight is here.  Biden could take the heat.  Can Warren?

If Biden loses Iowa and NH he will collapse in SC.

There is no reason to believe that.  Can you point to a single instance of a candidate collapsing in SC because they lost IA or NH?  Different states are different.  If you think Warren is going to have "momentum" because she wins IA + NH, well guess what, Warren has more momentum today than she will ever have again, and her SC polling is... 9%.

There are plenty of examples. Obama 2008 is one of them. He won Iowa  and got enormous momentum and won SC.

[SN2903]

No, he's been bouncing between 25-30% for months.  In the last week or two he's gone back up 5% on RCP.  He still has the highest % of voters considering him, the best numbers vs Trump, the highest (or tied for highest) favorability ratings, and broad support across all demographic groups except young people, who are dumb and never vote.  Furthermore, he is still crushing the field with black voters, he's still winning all the important party endorsements, and his policies are still the most popular among both Democrats and the general electorate.  So his numbers haven't changed and the fundamentals that give him a strong lead haven't changed.

The main dynamic in the race is Warren surging.  She's picked up a lot of the Harris voters as well as the Sanders voters who left after the heart attack.  She's also been winning undecideds.

It's tempting to say that this momentum will last.  But Warren has been cruising on 100% favorable coverage and zero scrutiny.  As we saw in the last debate, her time in the spotlight is here.  Biden could take the heat.  Can Warren?

If Biden loses Iowa and NH he will collapse in SC.

Who is the plausible candidate who could take his place in SC? Not Warren, not Buttigieg, not Harris.

Warren. She is becoming the left wing candidate of 2020. She can't win the general but she can do very well in the primary.

[Xing]

He's not collapsing to the point of getting destroyed, but he's slowly losing his frontrunner status and may be slipping slightly behind Warren. While his support has remained fairly consistent, he's not really gaining many new voters, and a lot of the "not Biden" vote is consolidating behind Warren.

[RI]

No, he's been bouncing between 25-30% for months.  In the last week or two he's gone back up 5% on RCP.  He still has the highest % of voters considering him, the best numbers vs Trump, the highest (or tied for highest) favorability ratings, and broad support across all demographic groups except young people, who are dumb and never vote.  Furthermore, he is still crushing the field with black voters, he's still winning all the important party endorsements, and his policies are still the most popular among both Democrats and the general electorate.  So his numbers haven't changed and the fundamentals that give him a strong lead haven't changed.

The main dynamic in the race is Warren surging.  She's picked up a lot of the Harris voters as well as the Sanders voters who left after the heart attack.  She's also been winning undecideds.

It's tempting to say that this momentum will last.  But Warren has been cruising on 100% favorable coverage and zero scrutiny.  As we saw in the last debate, her time in the spotlight is here.  Biden could take the heat.  Can Warren?

If Biden loses Iowa and NH he will collapse in SC.

Who is the plausible candidate who could take his place in SC? Not Warren, not Buttigieg, not Harris.

Warren. She is becoming the left wing candidate of 2020. She can't win the general but she can do very well in the primary.

Blacks don't care much for Warren, and being the "left wing candidate" will hurt her more with blacks than it will help her. Blacks are the most conservative part of the Democratic coalition.

[GeneralMacArthur]

No, he's been bouncing between 25-30% for months.  In the last week or two he's gone back up 5% on RCP.  He still has the highest % of voters considering him, the best numbers vs Trump, the highest (or tied for highest) favorability ratings, and broad support across all demographic groups except young people, who are dumb and never vote.  Furthermore, he is still crushing the field with black voters, he's still winning all the important party endorsements, and his policies are still the most popular among both Democrats and the general electorate.  So his numbers haven't changed and the fundamentals that give him a strong lead haven't changed.

The main dynamic in the race is Warren surging.  She's picked up a lot of the Harris voters as well as the Sanders voters who left after the heart attack.  She's also been winning undecideds.

It's tempting to say that this momentum will last.  But Warren has been cruising on 100% favorable coverage and zero scrutiny.  As we saw in the last debate, her time in the spotlight is here.  Biden could take the heat.  Can Warren?

If Biden loses Iowa and NH he will collapse in SC.

There is no reason to believe that.  Can you point to a single instance of a candidate collapsing in SC because they lost IA or NH?  Different states are different.  If you think Warren is going to have "momentum" because she wins IA + NH, well guess what, Warren has more momentum today than she will ever have again, and her SC polling is... 9%.

There are plenty of examples. Obama 2008 is one of them. He won Iowa  and got enormous momentum and won SC.

Except Hillary Clinton won New Hampshire, so by your argument she should have surged to push Obama back in South Carolina.  Instead, he beat the RCP polling average by almost 15 points.

[Rookie Yinzer]

There is no reason to believe that.  Can you point to a single instance of a candidate collapsing in SC because they lost IA or NH?  Different states are different.  If you think Warren is going to have "momentum" because she wins IA + NH, well guess what, Warren has more momentum today than she will ever have again, and her SC polling is... 9%.

Hasn't SC only been the First In the South primary in 2008 and 2016? There's really no precedence for what may happen in SC in 2020.

It also has gotten a lot blacker and the whites who vote in the Dem primaries have gotten more liberal. Who knows how things will shake out? I do think Biden will win the state regardless but the margins will be impacted based on his performance in the first three states.

[beaver2.0]

I'm not sure.

[Galeel]

I don't think Biden has been collapsing so much as Warren has been rising. Those two are pulling away from the rest of the field.

[Hermit For Peace]

Biden never stood a real chance, in my view. I knew he would start lagging behind. That front-runner status he came in with is something he didn't earn. He is not now, and never has been, presidential material. All he knows is how to be VP to a popular President, whose coattails he's been riding on.

I am glad to see him vanishing. He needs to retire and enjoy the rest of his life playing golf or whatever he likes to do. We need a President with HIGH energy to clean up the mess Trump is leaving.

[GlobeSoc]

Literally or politically?

[MT Treasurer]

Atlas has been predicting his collapse since the day he entered the race. No.

[Politician]

Atlas has been predicting his collapse since the day he entered the race. No.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=339642.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=339514.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=339429.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=339518.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=339240.0

Conclusion: Biden is inevitable!

[Heebie Jeebie]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1184942950192574464

[TML]

Atlas has been predicting his collapse since the day he entered the race. No.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=339642.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=339514.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=339429.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=339518.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=339240.0

Conclusion: Biden is inevitable!

You could have said the same about Ed Muskie at this point in time back in 1971.

[PSOL]

Due to the connections, big donors, and aversion to actual change Democratic Primary voters actually have, I can safely say that the Biden campaign is unhealthily flatlining while the two candidates viewed as being of change exceed him in every sorts of manners as a cumulative unit. With attack ads yet to come, and the stability of the United States hanging on unstable strands, I’m personally not optimistic about Biden’s chances. That isn’t to say that he’ll lose, but that it is not yet that the man is a dead horse with an empty jetpack. That’s viewed as such after the primaries or not.

[OneJ]

No, he's been bouncing between 25-30% for months.  In the last week or two he's gone back up 5% on RCP.  He still has the highest % of voters considering him, the best numbers vs Trump, the highest (or tied for highest) favorability ratings, and broad support across all demographic groups except young people, who are dumb and never vote.  Furthermore, he is still crushing the field with black voters, he's still winning all the important party endorsements, and his policies are still the most popular among both Democrats and the general electorate.  So his numbers haven't changed and the fundamentals that give him a strong lead haven't changed.

The main dynamic in the race is Warren surging.  She's picked up a lot of the Harris voters as well as the Sanders voters who left after the heart attack.  She's also been winning undecideds.

It's tempting to say that this momentum will last.  But Warren has been cruising on 100% favorable coverage and zero scrutiny.  As we saw in the last debate, her time in the spotlight is here.  Biden could take the heat.  Can Warren?

If Biden loses Iowa and NH he will collapse in SC.

Who is the plausible candidate who could take his place in SC? Not Warren, not Buttigieg, not Harris.

Warren. She is becoming the left wing candidate of 2020. She can't win the general but she can do very well in the primary.

Blacks don't care much for Warren, and being the "left wing candidate" will hurt her more with blacks than it will help her. Blacks are the most conservative part of the Democratic coalition.

The thing is that I don't think black voters vote strictly ideologically though. Even though they're more conservative as a whole than white liberals/progressives it doesn't necessarily mean a plurality can't back Warren.

Sure, the other big candidates besides Biden aren't very obvious choices for many, especially older blacks, but based on polling many of them are considering the likes of Warren, Sanders and Harris to be their second choices because they have higher name recognition.

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

Not sure but I think the more this country sees of 2019-20 Joe Biden, the less they are going to like.

[Tintrlvr]

No, he's been bouncing between 25-30% for months.  In the last week or two he's gone back up 5% on RCP.  He still has the highest % of voters considering him, the best numbers vs Trump, the highest (or tied for highest) favorability ratings, and broad support across all demographic groups except young people, who are dumb and never vote.  Furthermore, he is still crushing the field with black voters, he's still winning all the important party endorsements, and his policies are still the most popular among both Democrats and the general electorate.  So his numbers haven't changed and the fundamentals that give him a strong lead haven't changed.

The main dynamic in the race is Warren surging.  She's picked up a lot of the Harris voters as well as the Sanders voters who left after the heart attack.  She's also been winning undecideds.

It's tempting to say that this momentum will last.  But Warren has been cruising on 100% favorable coverage and zero scrutiny.  As we saw in the last debate, her time in the spotlight is here.  Biden could take the heat.  Can Warren?

If Biden loses Iowa and NH he will collapse in SC.

Who is the plausible candidate who could take his place in SC? Not Warren, not Buttigieg, not Harris.

Warren. She is becoming the left wing candidate of 2020. She can't win the general but she can do very well in the primary.

Blacks don't care much for Warren, and being the "left wing candidate" will hurt her more with blacks than it will help her. Blacks are the most conservative part of the Democratic coalition.

The thing is that I don't think black voters vote strictly ideologically though. Even though they're more conservative as a whole than white liberals/progressives it doesn't necessarily mean a plurality can't back Warren.

Sure, the other big candidates besides Biden aren't very obvious choices for many, especially older blacks, but based on polling many of them are considering the likes of Warren, Sanders and Harris to be their second choices because they have higher name recognition.

It's more about trust and familiarity. Biden is familiar and trusted. Warren is less familiar and so less trusted. That can change rapidly in the context of a primary. It's also why Sanders tends to do better than Warren with black voters; he's more of a known quantity. (We're not talking about people literally not knowing who Warren is; it's more that black voters are inherently distrusting of politicians (particularly white politicians) and tend to need more exposure (in a positive way, of course) to trust that they are on their side.)

[Shadows]

Yes. Fundraising is going to be a huge problem. He is spending more than he is raising & he is largely dependent on large donors who gave him money as he was leading. Now he is on the decline & those funds are decreasing. He doesn't have the money to expand operations & if he does he may run out of money.

Will he raise enough money to have some presence in organizing & in TV ads in Big Super Tuesday states like California & Texas ?

[Flyersfan232]

No bernie supporters are flocking to warren.

[Cassandra]

No bernie supporters are flocking to warren.

Are you sure? The crosstabs I've seen suggest that at least a fair amount of Warren's rise has been consolidating former Harris supporters. Bernie seems to just be bumping up against a hard ceiling around 20%.

[eric82oslo]

No, he's been bouncing between 25-30% for months.  In the last week or two he's gone back up 5% on RCP.  He still has the highest % of voters considering him, the best numbers vs Trump, the highest (or tied for highest) favorability ratings, and broad support across all demographic groups except young people, who are dumb and never vote.  Furthermore, he is still crushing the field with black voters, he's still winning all the important party endorsements, and his policies are still the most popular among both Democrats and the general electorate.  So his numbers haven't changed and the fundamentals that give him a strong lead haven't changed.

The main dynamic in the race is Warren surging.  She's picked up a lot of the Harris voters as well as the Sanders voters who left after the heart attack.  She's also been winning undecideds.

It's tempting to say that this momentum will last.  But Warren has been cruising on 100% favorable coverage and zero scrutiny.  As we saw in the last debate, her time in the spotlight is here.  Biden could take the heat.  Can Warren?

If Biden loses Iowa and NH he will collapse in SC.

Who is the plausible candidate who could take his place in SC? Not Warren, not Buttigieg, not Harris.

Warren. She is becoming the left wing candidate of 2020. She can't win the general but she can do very well in the primary.

Blacks don't care much for Warren, and being the "left wing candidate" will hurt her more with blacks than it will help her. Blacks are the most conservative part of the Democratic coalition.

The thing is that I don't think black voters vote strictly ideologically though. Even though they're more conservative as a whole than white liberals/progressives it doesn't necessarily mean a plurality can't back Warren.

Sure, the other big candidates besides Biden aren't very obvious choices for many, especially older blacks, but based on polling many of them are considering the likes of Warren, Sanders and Harris to be their second choices because they have higher name recognition.

Agree with you. The way I know black voters in the south, they really aren't all that ideological. They are religious though, but that only direct them in a handful of issues, if even that, like abortion. And regarding gay rights to some degree, although even that is fading. Other than that, black southern voters might very well be the most flexible, open-minded type of voters there is in the USA of 2019. The reason they're so stuck to figures like Biden and Clinton has nothing to do with ideology and everything to do with nostalgia and past great times to look back to.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

No, he's been bouncing between 25-30% for months.  In the last week or two he's gone back up 5% on RCP.  He still has the highest % of voters considering him, the best numbers vs Trump, the highest (or tied for highest) favorability ratings, and broad support across all demographic groups except young people, who are dumb and never vote.  Furthermore, he is still crushing the field with black voters, he's still winning all the important party endorsements, and his policies are still the most popular among both Democrats and the general electorate.  So his numbers haven't changed and the fundamentals that give him a strong lead haven't changed.

The main dynamic in the race is Warren surging.  She's picked up a lot of the Harris voters as well as the Sanders voters who left after the heart attack.  She's also been winning undecideds.

It's tempting to say that this momentum will last.  But Warren has been cruising on 100% favorable coverage and zero scrutiny.  As we saw in the last debate, her time in the spotlight is here.  Biden could take the heat.  Can Warren?

If Biden loses Iowa and NH he will collapse in SC.

There is no reason to believe that.  Can you point to a single instance of a candidate collapsing in SC because they lost IA or NH?  Different states are different.  If you think Warren is going to have "momentum" because she wins IA + NH, well guess what, Warren has more momentum today than she will ever have again, and her SC polling is... 9%.

Howard Dean

[RI]

No, he's been bouncing between 25-30% for months.  In the last week or two he's gone back up 5% on RCP.  He still has the highest % of voters considering him, the best numbers vs Trump, the highest (or tied for highest) favorability ratings, and broad support across all demographic groups except young people, who are dumb and never vote.  Furthermore, he is still crushing the field with black voters, he's still winning all the important party endorsements, and his policies are still the most popular among both Democrats and the general electorate.  So his numbers haven't changed and the fundamentals that give him a strong lead haven't changed.

The main dynamic in the race is Warren surging.  She's picked up a lot of the Harris voters as well as the Sanders voters who left after the heart attack.  She's also been winning undecideds.

It's tempting to say that this momentum will last.  But Warren has been cruising on 100% favorable coverage and zero scrutiny.  As we saw in the last debate, her time in the spotlight is here.  Biden could take the heat.  Can Warren?

If Biden loses Iowa and NH he will collapse in SC.

There is no reason to believe that.  Can you point to a single instance of a candidate collapsing in SC because they lost IA or NH?  Different states are different.  If you think Warren is going to have "momentum" because she wins IA + NH, well guess what, Warren has more momentum today than she will ever have again, and her SC polling is... 9%.

Howard Dean

Dean never had more than a small, tentative lead in SC polling in 2004 and a brief one at that. Polling in SC was fractured quite thinly between Edwards, Clark, Dean, Sharpton, and Lieberman for most of 2003 into early 2004. That's not very comparable to what we see today.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, this election is Warren and Castro's race to lose. So, much energy, is now with Warren. The final gaffe was the Ukraine corruption for Biden; as a result 3 strikes with Busing and female harrassment, will give Warrenthe nomination