KY-SEN: Amy McGrath in

[Donerail]

Atlas consensus here is so dumb and tiresome. Yes, it's an uphill race, but the whole map is uphill! Because of the nature of the map, you have to make a serious effort to pick up seats in Montana, and Texas, and Kansas, all of which are going to be extraordinarily difficult. At least in this one you've got a good candidate who is fundraising well and will run a competitive election — absolute malpractice to write it off as safe R now.

[Donerail]

The problem for Democrats is that this race won't be competitive and will siphon money from left-wing idiots that could go to actual races

That's not how donors work. Her average donation is something like $36, so mostly small donors. This isn't money that can be transferred to Georgia or North Carolina — it's people giving to a candidate (or, against a candidate) who they feel strongly about, in a way that they don't feel compelled to donate to random b-listers in Montana

[Donerail]

Atlas consensus here is so dumb and tiresome. Yes, it's an uphill race, but the whole map is uphill! Because of the nature of the map, you have to make a serious effort to pick up seats in Montana, and Texas, and Kansas, all of which are going to be extraordinarily difficult. At least in this one you've got a good candidate who is fundraising well and will run a competitive election — absolute malpractice to write it off as safe R now.

The difference is that those states are potentially winnable in ideal circumstances. KY is not. Any cent spent on it is completely lit on fire.

IceSpear! Haven't seen you in a bit. I will take your opinions about the Southern United States under advisement.

[Donerail]

If there's any place in the party for anti-abortion Democrats, it's certainly not the US Senate. I'd rather take my chances with McGrath or the basketball guy or literally anyone else.

[Donerail]

I don’t know what’s so attractive about running for a nomination forthe right to get publicly humiliated by McConnell. Unless it’s solely for the graft

Is it really so unimaginable to you that he thinks he can win?

[Donerail]

Is it really so unimaginable to you that he thinks he can win?

He thinks Bevin will win by double digits, he's not exactly the brightest.

Many low-IQ posters these days. Very sad to see

[Donerail]

Jones exploratory committee has filed.

[Donerail]

I don’t see where in his post he did that. Maybe I’m stupid, though. I only got a 34/36 on ACT Reading Comprehension.

Pathetic.

[Donerail]

I don’t see where in his post he did that. Maybe I’m stupid, though. I only got a 34/36 on ACT Reading Comprehension.

Pathetic.

Any more insight into how the molestation allegations helped Roy Moore that you would like to contribute here?

See, this is exactly the problem — what does Roy Moore have to do with your poor ACT score? No wonder you had trouble with reading comprehension.

[Donerail]

gimme McConnell by ten

[Donerail]

I really don't think anyone outside of atlas knows who Booker is. He does not have nearly the fundraising or the name ID to mount that big of an upset

It's not what it used to be, but some people do still read the Herald-Leader and the Courier-Journal...

[Donerail]

Conservative white woman notable for her (campaign for) U.S. House attempts to run for statewide office in a Southern state, polling frontrunner with notable support from out of state, only to be upset in the last few days by a young black left-wing elected official? That upstart candidate only close in his own internals, but with a dominating sense of momentum in the final days before the primary? Not going to draw out the analogy too far, but we have heard this song somewhere else a couple years ago.

[Donerail]

This isn't a Graham scenario, and it isn't that applicable here. Also had Graham won the primary, she'd be Governor right now. Also that primary arguably had 3 possible frontrunners (Graham, Levine, Gillum), which made the result very unpredictable.

This is, perhaps, one of the worst posts I've seen on this website — certainly in this thread. Let's take it sentence by sentence.

This isn't a Graham scenario, and it isn't that applicable here.

This sentence is meaningless. Nobody knows what a "Graham scenario" is, and making the broad claim that "it's not applicable here" without any reasoning to back it up means you're just making a hollow claim with no support. You have to explain your logic and why your claim is true if you want people to take it seriously.

Also had Graham won the primary, she'd be Governor right now.

This sentence is irrelevant. We're discussing the dynamics of a Democratic primary, not whether or not the candidates in question would win their general election. This non sequitur does nothing to advance your point and is wholly off-topic.

Also that primary arguably had 3 possible frontrunners (Graham, Levine, Gillum), which made the result very unpredictable.

And this sentence is wrong. Absolutely, factually wrong: Gillum led in one poll, sponsored and released by his campaign and conducted by (highly-respected) Change Research. The vast majority of polling had Graham in front or tied. "Arguably" is doing a lot of work in this sentence, but not enough to make it a valid claim.

[Donerail]

https://twitter.com/AlisonForKY/status/1272858065323294720

[Donerail]

lmao lmao lmao

https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1273697681521758209

blood in the water!

[Donerail]

imo isn't warren part of the Senate Leadership team?

She is one of the vice-chairs of the Democratic Caucus; she also sent out a fundraising email boosting McGrath in July, when she first entered the race. Apparently this was not an endorsement?
https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1148617247197401093

[Donerail]

To the extent McGrath has a base it's almost certainly suburban women--good ole soccer moms. Some Booker fans upthread recognized this and took a few cheap shots at women.  If Booker had started earlier been better organized and able to be more visible outside of the Louisville market he might have been able to crack that, but he didn't.  It would have been a fun narrative for Booker to beat Ms Moneybucks and they take on Moscow Moneybucks Mitch.  Kind of populist but it's not like the rurals would have voted for him either. 

Soccer moms in other states, maybe...

McGrath's best performances were in counties like Crittenden, Metcalfe, Edmonson, Butler — mostly in the central or eastern part of the state, mostly white, no universities. I'd struggle to call any of those counties "suburban" in a meaningful sense.

[Donerail]

McGrath's best performances were in counties like Crittenden, Metcalfe, Edmonson, Butler — mostly in the central or eastern part of the state, mostly white, no universities. I'd struggle to call any of those counties "suburban" in a meaningful sense.

I'd call Boone Kenton and Campbell suburban and McGrath won those by 20-25 pts.  She won all the counties around Fayette and did better than I expected in Fayette Co too.  Who were all those McGrath voters in Fayettte?

Have you ever been to Georgetown? It's a pretty town — the college campus is gorgeous and there's a nice little stretch of buildings downtown — but it does not feel like the prototypical white suburb. Lexington's just not a big enough town to have suburbs in the way that major cities do.

Booker won college towns and blacks, McGrath carried the rest. It's a little silly to look any deeper than that to come up with some sort of "typical McGrath voters" — when you're winning 70+ counties, the McGrath voter looks pretty much the same as the median voter.