KY-SEN: Amy McGrath in

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

You know what...the more I read about McGrath and her campaign message, the more I get the feeling that I'm not even sure I know what she stands for. It's not enough to just say "I'm not ______", so I now think that if McGrath were to continue down her current path, she could end up just like McConnell's previous opponent in terms of the final election margin.

Lol. She ain’t gonna lose because people don’t know what she stands for. She’s gonna lose because she’s a Democrat in Kentucky.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I'm gonna totally grift for McGrath shares on predict it. Then buy cocaine mitch shares at a lower value. Anyone want to help me scam these donors and make em buy McGrath shares once it launches? All you need to do is tell em look Kentucky Democrat advantage registration and mitch McConnell low approval.

I also endorse  Beshear. If he somehow wins  Democrat donors will believe cocaine mitch is debatable.

Either McGrath is a narcissistic idiot or she’s a narcissistic grifter who knows she’s gonna be rolling in the campaign cash of delusional liberals

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

If she couldn't win in a seat well to the left of the state in a historically Democratic year what makes her think she can win statewide with Trump at the top of the ticket?

That money from idiot donors bruh. Just write off all your expenses/bar tabs to the campaign and life is great

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Nate Silver thinks McGrath has a shot because of approval ratings and his status as a party leader. This is his job and he still hasn't learned from past elections.

The fact that Phil Bredesen, a guy with 60% favorables for most of the 2018 cycle, lost by double digits in a state that is a little friendlier to Dems than KY is in a D+9 year isn't teaching these people a lesson is beyond me. Screw it, I might go drop a ton of money on McConnell now too on PredictIt. So much for Democrats being more logical and reasonable when they still think beating McConnell is possible, lol.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I also think McGrath has a chance, let's wait until after Nov, 2019, when the KY-Gov contest is over, before we render anymore judgements.

2012 blue wave didnt happen 1 yr prior to the election. McConnell had a close election,  in 2008, against Lunsford in an election yr. 2014, was a midterm anf ALG made a gaffe and Walsh had plagerism, which natl the election😃

You know what else happened in 2008? Max Baucus got 3/4 of the vote and swept every county and Dems held about a dozen R+20 districts. Things have changed just a little there bud

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

To those complaining that the Dems will waste money here, I think she will ends up with the opposite problem - barely any money at all and cannot run a legitimate campaign. The dem base is educated and cares about winning, and is not afraid to cruelly throw candidates under the bus. Their donations are political investments after all. When the NYT found candidates losing by significant margins in a single poll, they lost their shine. I am reminded of TX23, TX31, and MN08 - all MOE races in the end, but all abandoned by the activist base first and then the donors when one data point came up not in their favor.

Lol no, these are the same people who lit their money on fire for O'Rourke and Heitkamp

ND and TN were a waste of money, but was TX? Yeah it was excessive, but O’Rourke came closer to winning than 3 of the 4 Democratic Senators that lost did. And he gave us a glimpse as to how a Democrat can win statewide sometime in the next decade when there previously wasn’t a template to use. Literally just add five points to Beto’s margins in the cities and suburbs and that’s a blue Texas. And his downballot coattails were huge in the legislature and at the county level.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

McConnell needs to be defeated after what he sais about slavery reparations. McGrath isnt ALG.

You’re right. ALG actually won an election statewide in KY before she ran against McConnell (with over 60% of the vote). The same can’t be said of McGrath

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The people over at DailyKos Elections are evenly stupidly buying into the idea that contesting KY is a good idea. So much for Democrats being more rational and logical than Republicans

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The problem for Democrats is that this race won't be competitive and will siphon money from left-wing idiots that could go to actual races

That's not how donors work. Her average donation is something like $36, so mostly small donors. This isn't money that can be transferred to Georgia or North Carolina — it's people giving to a candidate (or, against a candidate) who they feel strongly about, in a way that they don't feel compelled to donate to random b-listers in Montana

That doesn’t make them any less gullible or this any less of a scam. If anything it shows how easy it is to scam people in America nowadays by playing off people’s emotions

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Honestly, during her 2014 Senate Run, Alison Grimes should have lied and claimed that she voted for Romney in 2012 whenever asked about it. If she did, then the race would have likely ended up within 5 points, and could have gone either way.

No one accused Kentuckians of being smart, but they’re also not that dumb

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Remember folks, supposedly educated and well-informed people were touting her candidacy on here and on DKE just today and yesterday and arguing that this candidacy wasn't in fact a scam. Well McGraft basically robbed people of $2.5 million and counting.

She's gonna be lucky to break 40% of the vote.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I really love this quote : ''Yarmuth said it is a waste of time for Kentucky Democrats to court Trump voters, who delivered the president a 30 percentage point victory in 2016. He said the better pathway to defeating McConnell is running up huge margins in urban centers, such as his district of Louisville, and other Democratic strongholds such as Lexington.''

This strategy worked really well for Jim Gray.

Anyway, I think Rocky Adkins would have at least given McConnell a scare, but McGrath is going to do worse than ALG and Gray.

Worse than ALG is a pretty hard thing to fathom.

A Democrat getting less than 40% in KY is quite easy to fathom. Even against McConnell. And McGrath hardly inspires confidence.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I really love this quote : ''Yarmuth said it is a waste of time for Kentucky Democrats to court Trump voters, who delivered the president a 30 percentage point victory in 2016. He said the better pathway to defeating McConnell is running up huge margins in urban centers, such as his district of Louisville, and other Democratic strongholds such as Lexington.''

This strategy worked really well for Jim Gray.

Anyway, I think Rocky Adkins would have at least given McConnell a scare, but McGrath is going to do worse than ALG and Gray.

Worse than ALG is a pretty hard thing to fathom.

A Democrat getting less than 40% in KY is quite easy to fathom. Even against McConnell. And McGrath hardly inspires confidence.

Her campaigns off to a rocky start but don't count her off yet she nearly won a trump +10 district last year. I think Adkins is our best shot at the seat but McGrath isn't DOA just yet though this race is almost safe r

If anything that bolsters the argument against her. If she couldn’t win the second Dem friendliest  seat in KY last year what the hell makes people think she has any shot statewide

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Yes, Ohio is clearly a swing state that just happened to vote for Republicans in all row offices in a D+9 year. TX is not competitive though even though two statewide races were closer than any of the OH row office races, that’s a fluke

And before anyone @ me, no Im not saying TX is a swing state. Not yet at least

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Yes, Ohio is clearly a swing state that just happened to vote for Republicans in all row offices in a D+9 year. TX is not competitive though even though two statewide races were closer than any of the OH row office races, that’s a fluke

And before anyone @ me, no Im not saying TX is a swing state. Not yet at least

Democrats swept all the statewide offices in Minnesota in 2014. Clearly anyone who calls it a swing stats is a moron. Connecticut had closer statewide races than Minnesota, so clearly it'll be more competitive in 2016.

Those aren't the same thing at all and I think you know that.

I genuinely don’t think he has the mental capacity to understand the difference. Either that or he’s trying WAYY too hard to save face over his previous assertions of Texas definitely NOT trending blue

If you ask me, it just sounds like he’d rather Democrats try to win homogeneous white areas over diverse ones, but whatever

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I genuinely don’t think he has the mental capacity to understand the difference. Either that or he’s trying WAYY too hard to save face over his previous assertions of Texas definitely NOT trending blue

If you ask me, it just sounds like he’d rather Democrats try to win homogeneous white areas over diverse ones, but whatever

He thinks 70 year old retired white factory workers who watch InfoWars are a more viable long term strategy than white progressives in Austin and Dallas, or low propensity black voters in Houston, or first time Latinx voters in Phoenix, or the burgeoning Asian electorate in Atlanta.

We must fight for people who will be dead in 10 years, in states that are becoming less and less electorally relevant (if they aren't already)

Absolutely dumbfounding. And don’t get me wrong, I’d love to be able to compete in Ohio and Missouri, but at some point ya gotta accept the fact that these people just don’t like Democrats anymore. It’s an exercise in futility to expend more effort trying to turn back time in those places over going with the path of least resistance in growing states like AZ, TX and GA where most the new people moving in or coming of age are overwhelmingly Democrat

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Jesus Christ McGrath sucks.

Easily one of the most overrated candidates in the 2018 cycle too

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

So much sexism in this thread. Typical atlas.

I can't be sexist, I have a biological birth mother.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/ChetLemond/status/1163802832077828096

At this rate, McGrath might actually lose by more than Alison Lundergan Grimes did in 2014. McConnell will almost certainly carry Elliott County for the first time in his career. She'll be lucky to do as well as Jim Gray did in 2016.

Don’t tell Politician that.

And I agree. I’d be shocked if she hit 40%.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/courierjournal/status/1164630332232077312

If Atkins had won the nomination over Beshear earlier this year, he would probably be on track to defeat Bevin. Against McConnell, however, it's a different story. I think Atkins would do as well as Gray did in 2016, and he would definitely win Elliott County (where he has a base, and where he did exceptionally well against Beshear and Edelen). But McConnell would still win by around 12-15 points in the end, though.

I doubt he would win the primary against McGrath though, especially if Jones runs too.
Amy McGrath will have a small fortune to spend

She’ll probably have a big fortune to spend because idiots keep on pumping money into a lost cause in some vain effort to beat bogeyman McConnell. She raised $2.5 million on the first day alone. Talk about money on fire

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/courierjournal/status/1164630332232077312

If Atkins had won the nomination over Beshear earlier this year, he would probably be on track to defeat Bevin. Against McConnell, however, it's a different story. I think Atkins would do as well as Gray did in 2016, and he would definitely win Elliott County (where he has a base, and where he did exceptionally well against Beshear and Edelen). But McConnell would still win by around 12-15 points in the end, though.

I doubt he would win the primary against McGrath though, especially if Jones runs too.
Amy McGrath will have a small fortune to spend

She’ll probably have a big fortune to spend because idiots keep on pumping money into a lost cause in some vain effort to beat bogeyman McConnell. She raised $2.5 million on the first day alone. Talk about money on fire

Forget donating to other political candidates, that money could've gone to like...feeding hungry kids or something. Instead it will become mere ash. Sad!

McConnell should honestly just troll and run those ASPCA type commercials that say "the money used to fund Amy McGrath's advertisements could have been used to send hundreds of our poorest Kentucky seniors to college for free, to build better animal kennels for our pounds, and to cover our poorest citizens' school lunch bill."

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1167060752915734528

I don’t know what’s so attractive about running for a nomination forthe right to get publicly humiliated by McConnell. Unless it’s solely for the graft

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I don’t know what’s so attractive about running for a nomination forthe right to get publicly humiliated by McConnell. Unless it’s solely for the graft

Is it really so unimaginable to you that he thinks he can win?

He thinks Bevin will win by double digits, he's not exactly the brightest.

You think Elliott County is more likely to vote D than Tarrant County

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I don’t know what’s so attractive about running for a nomination forthe right to get publicly humiliated by McConnell. Unless it’s solely for the graft

Is it really so unimaginable to you that he thinks he can win?

He thinks Bevin will win by double digits, he's not exactly the brightest.

You think Elliott County is more likely to vote D than Tarrant County

1. I don't think that.
2. How would you know? You registered 2 months ago, you shouldn't be able to know about a thread I deleted, unless you're a sock.

Lurker.

@sjoyce: Wendy Long thought that she could beat schumer too. Didn’t make her any less foolish

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/KMaxGreenwood/status/1182391098909614080

McConnell got outrasied 5 to 1 by McGrath LMAO

Yes, it seems Republicans are being much smarter about where they are putting their resources than democrats are. Watch us lose NC (and thus the majority) by like 500 votes or something like that all because Cunningham is woefully underfunded while McGrath meanwhile raised more than what he’s raised in a single day