Can someone please show me how Texas is turning blue

[Saint Milei]

Please please please. I've heard it far too much on this website.

[Politician]

It isn't. Beto was an amazing candidate running against a weak inchent in a D+9 year.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It isn't. Beto was an amazing candidate running against a weak inchent in a D+9 year.

If beto was such a uniquely amazing candidate, why did local dems do really well too (both house and the state level)? Plenty of dems barely did worse than Beto, and a few dems actually did better than Beto.

The congressional house races were R+3.5. Generic R in the house barely did any better than Ted Cruz.

Also, 1) What makes you think 2020 won't be a big dem win 2) It was more like D+8 when you take into account that the GOP didn't run candidates in a lot of house races 3) Hispanic and youth turnout went down the cliff in 2018 (as it always does in midterms) and will be better in 2020.

Finally, Ted Cruz had positive approval ratings, so he wasn't that weak.

[Roll Roons]

Romney won it by 16, while Trump only won by 9. Dems also made huge strides there in 2018. They beat two entrenched GOP house incumbents and came close in some districts that literally no one paid attention to. Not only did they come within 3 in the Senate race, but also within 5 for Lieutenant Governor, AG and Ag Commissioner, and took a bunch of state legislative seats. No doubt that some of this was from Beto-induced enthusiasm, but there are definitely some trends that are worrying for us.

[Devout Centrist]

What could it mean??

[Gracile]

It isn't. Beto was an amazing candidate running against a weak inchent in a D+9 year.

Not even Beto was able to max out the Dem vote in Texas. He ran behind Clinton in several D-leaning Hispanic parts of the state (both in terms of margin and raw vote) - one could assume turnout in these areas will be higher in a presidential year.

[Storr]

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/TX/PST045218

According to this, Texas is 58.5% non-white (including white Hispanics) and 41.5% non-Hispanic white alone.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/11/07/are-texas-suburbs-slipping-away-republicans/

[TML]

I believe this current trend goes back to 2008, when Obama won several urban counties which hadn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate for 10 or more years: Harris (Houston, last voted D in 1964), Dallas (last voted D in 1964), and Bexar (San Antonio, last voted D in 1996). All three counties have remained firmly in the D column since 2008.

Fast forward to 2018, and you will notice that Democratic strength is creeping into suburban counties near Austin, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio, which is a trend that mirrors what's been happening in many other parts of the country.

Although I wouldn't bet on TX flipping in 2020 (barring a Democratic landslide), I think it will likely be a lock for Democrats a generation from now.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

It isn't. Beto was an amazing candidate running against a weak inchent in a D+9 year.

No.

Democrats did very well in elections across the state in 2018, even Lupe Valdez managed to outperform expectations. the House vote was R+3.5 and every statewide race was competitive. on top of this, it went from Romney +16 to Trump +9, so I'm not sure how anyone could deny it's turning blue. you may not like it, but it's a fact. suburbanites in Texas are turning the state more Democratic.

[smoltchanov]

Please please please. I've heard it far too much on this website.

The last election results are not enough? Plenty of arguments there, especially in behavoir of suburban districts.

[Nyvin]

It should be very obvious actually.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Kamala choses Castro, not Beto, with Latino votes, AZ, FL and TX are in play in a wave

[We Live in Black and White]

You could try looking at a results map. Not to sound like a smartass, but it's really not in the least bit hard to see.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It isn't. Beto was an amazing candidate running against a weak inchent in a D+9 year.

Hi there! This is an ignorant statement. And that is a nice way of putting it.

I guess these are just aberrations then?:

Tarrant County (Fort Worth/Arlington):
2012: Romney +16%
2018: Beto +1%
17% Democratic swing

Dallas County:
2012: Obama +15%
2018: Beto +33%
18% Democratic swing

Collin County (Dallas suburbs):
2012: Romney +31%
2018: Cruz +6%
25% Democratic swing. Nothing to see there!

Denton County (DFW suburbs):
2012: Romney +31%
2018: Cruz +8%
23% Democratic swing. Nothing to see here!

Harris County (Houston):
2012: Tie
2018: Beto +17%
17% Democratic swing

Fort Bend County (Houston suburbs):
2012: Romney +7%
2018: Beto +12%
19% Democratic swing. Nothing to see here.

Montgomery County (Houston suburbs):
2012: Romney +60%
2018: Cruz +45%
15% Democratic swing.

Williamson County (Austin suburbs):
2012: Romney +21%
2018: Beto +3%
24% Democratic swing. Definitely nothing to see here.

Travis County (Austin)
2012: Obama +24%
2018: Beto +50%
26% Democratic swing! Holy moly!

Hays County (San Marcos)
2012: Romney +10%
2018: Beto +16%
ANOTHER 26% Democratic swing! That Beta fella sure musta been a very strong candidate here!

Bexar County (San Antone)
2012: Obama +5%
2018: Beto +20%
15% Democratic swing

El Paso County:
2012: Obama +32%
2018: Beto +49%
17% Democratic swing.

Lubbock County:
2012: Romney +41%
2018: Cruz +29%
12% Democratic swing

Brazos County  (College Station A&M)
2012: Romney +35%
2018: Cruz +12%
23% Democratic swing

I'm sure this is all just a fluke though and Trump will win Texas by double digits in 2020.

[Oryxslayer]

Let's also not forget that migration is playing a big part in this shift. That decade old meme of Californians moving to Texas to get away from high rent/get jobs is finally coming to bite everyone in the ass.

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1148399019170893828?s=19

A republican saying Texas is a safe state is just as gullible as a democrat saying Pennsylvania or Michigan will never give their EVs to a republican during the Obama era. Just because something hasn't happened yet doesn't change the situation on the ground.

[lfromnj]

It isn't. Beto was an amazing candidate running against a weak inchent in a D+9 year.

Hi there! This is an ignorant statement. And that is a nice way of putting it.

I guess these are just aberrations then?:

Tarrant County:
2012: Romney +16%
2018: Beto +1%
17% Democratic swing

Dallas County:
2012: Obama +15%
2018: Beto +33%
18% Democratic swing

Collin County:
2012: Romney +31%
2018: Cruz +6%
25% Democratic swing. Nothing to see there!

Denton County:
2012: Romney +31%
2018: Cruz +8%
23% Democratic swing. Nothing to see here!

Harris County:
2012: Tie
2018: Beto +17%
17% Democratic swing

Fort Bend County:
2012: Romney +7%
2018: Beto +12%
19% Democratic swing. Nothing to see here.

Montgomery County:
2012: Romney +60%
2018: Cruz +45%
15% Democratic swing.

Williamson County:
2012: Romney +21%
2018: Beto +3%
24% Democratic swing. Definitely nothing to see here.

Travis County:
2012: Obama +24%
2018: Beto +50%
26% Democratic swing! Holy moly!

Hays County:
2012: Romney +10%
2018: Beto +16%
ANOTHER 26% Democratic swing! That Beta fella sure musta been a very strong candidate here!

Bexar County:
2012: Obama +5%
2018: Beto +20%
15% Democratic swing

El Paso County:
2012: Obama +32%
2018: Beto +49%
17% Democratic swing.

Lubbock County:
2012: Romney +41%
2018: Cruz +29%
12% Democratic swing

Brazos County:
2012: Romney +35%
2018: Cruz +12%
23% Democratic swing

I'm sure this is all just a fluke though and Trump will win Texas by double digits in 2020.

Don't forget super rich areas like Highland park going from +60 Romney to around +30 Cruz. Sure its only a few hundred votes but thats a lot of fundraising lost.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It isn't. Beto was an amazing candidate running against a weak inchent in a D+9 year.

Hi there! This is an ignorant statement. And that is a nice way of putting it.

I guess these are just aberrations then?:

Tarrant County:
2012: Romney +16%
2018: Beto +1%
17% Democratic swing

Dallas County:
2012: Obama +15%
2018: Beto +33%
18% Democratic swing

Collin County:
2012: Romney +31%
2018: Cruz +6%
25% Democratic swing. Nothing to see there!

Denton County:
2012: Romney +31%
2018: Cruz +8%
23% Democratic swing. Nothing to see here!

Harris County:
2012: Tie
2018: Beto +17%
17% Democratic swing

Fort Bend County:
2012: Romney +7%
2018: Beto +12%
19% Democratic swing. Nothing to see here.

Montgomery County:
2012: Romney +60%
2018: Cruz +45%
15% Democratic swing.

Williamson County:
2012: Romney +21%
2018: Beto +3%
24% Democratic swing. Definitely nothing to see here.

Travis County:
2012: Obama +24%
2018: Beto +50%
26% Democratic swing! Holy moly!

Hays County:
2012: Romney +10%
2018: Beto +16%
ANOTHER 26% Democratic swing! That Beta fella sure musta been a very strong candidate here!

Bexar County:
2012: Obama +5%
2018: Beto +20%
15% Democratic swing

El Paso County:
2012: Obama +32%
2018: Beto +49%
17% Democratic swing.

Lubbock County:
2012: Romney +41%
2018: Cruz +29%
12% Democratic swing

Brazos County:
2012: Romney +35%
2018: Cruz +12%
23% Democratic swing

I'm sure this is all just a fluke though and Trump will win Texas by double digits in 2020.

Don't forget super rich areas like Highland park going from +60 Romney to around +30 Cruz. Sure its only a few hundred votes but thats a lot of fundraising lost.

I live down here in Texas and I'm just reading the first two posts in this thread and thinking WTF are they smokin? When Democrats are cresting 40% in places like Brazos County, Collin and Denton, then we're in a completely new era. Wouldn't be surprised if those counties flip in the next decade at this rate.

[Saint Milei]

Using cruz to justify the case for texas turning blue is not wise. I guess we have to wait until 2020

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Castro can certainly turn TX as Veep candidate in 2020, Dems can make good use of him, more than Pete Buttigieg

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Using cruz to justify the case for texas turning blue is not wise. I guess we have to wait until 2020

You’re pretty dense aren’t you

[Stranger in a strange land]

It isn't. Beto was an amazing candidate running against a weak inchent in a D+9 year.

No.

Democrats did very well in elections across the state in 2018, even Lupe Valdez managed to outperform expectations. the House vote was R+3.5 and every statewide race was competitive. on top of this, it went from Romney +16 to Trump +9, so I'm not sure how anyone could deny it's turning blue. you may not like it, but it's a fact. suburbanites in Texas are turning the state more Democratic.

It's funny because the consensus on Atlas the week before the 2018 election was that Beto would flop and lose by high single-digits (ie do a point or two better than Hillary did). Yet he came close, and most down-ticket dems ran only a point or two behind him.

[Person Man]

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/TX/PST045218

According to this, Texas is 58.5% non-white (including white Hispanics) and 41.5% non-Hispanic white alone.

TBF, those numbers probably are skewed the way the numbers in Florida are skewed. A lot of "white Hispanics" are about as "Hispanic" as I am.

[ElectionsGuy]

It isn't. Beto was an amazing candidate running against a weak inchent in a D+9 year.

If beto was such a uniquely amazing candidate, why did local dems do really well too (both house and the state level)? Plenty of dems barely did worse than Beto, and a few dems actually did better than Beto.

The congressional house races were R+3.5. Generic R in the house barely did any better than Ted Cruz.

Also, 1) What makes you think 2020 won't be a big dem win 2) It was more like D+8 when you take into account that the GOP didn't run candidates in a lot of house races 3) Hispanic and youth turnout went down the cliff in 2018 (as it always does in midterms) and will be better in 2020.

Finally, Ted Cruz had positive approval ratings, so he wasn't that weak.

When you account for uncontested races, it would've been more like R+5 to R+6, which is what the average non-Governor statewide race margin was.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It isn't. Beto was an amazing candidate running against a weak inchent in a D+9 year.

If beto was such a uniquely amazing candidate, why did local dems do really well too (both house and the state level)? Plenty of dems barely did worse than Beto, and a few dems actually did better than Beto.

The congressional house races were R+3.5. Generic R in the house barely did any better than Ted Cruz.

Also, 1) What makes you think 2020 won't be a big dem win 2) It was more like D+8 when you take into account that the GOP didn't run candidates in a lot of house races 3) Hispanic and youth turnout went down the cliff in 2018 (as it always does in midterms) and will be better in 2020.

Finally, Ted Cruz had positive approval ratings, so he wasn't that weak.

When you account for uncontested races, it would've been more like R+5 to R+6, which is what the average non-Governor statewide race margin was.

Still does not change the fact that it is quite clear to anyone with a brain “how Texas is turning blue”, which is what the first two posters in this thread seem to be in complete denial about.